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Post by stevil on Jan 21, 2016 10:21:39 GMT -5
Single-digit/low double-digit royalty deals comprise the majority of biotech agreements today. MannKind would pay NONE of the development, production and eventual marketing expenses whatsoever. These deals can still be quite lucrative and there are plenty of examples in the market today. good points. now that this is out of the way, the next fire to put out is how Mannkind can raise much needed cash unless Receptor Life is part of a plan to take MNKD private. That would be incredibly disappointing if true. Matt did not seem to elude to that being a possibility at all. I know businessmen aren't known for their ethics, but it would be against the tone he set at JPM conference. It's my belief that he wants to keep the company public and knows that it's in the best interest of the company to do so if we can get out of the funk we're currently in. Once we get momentum, our SP will not get hammered by shorts.
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Post by stevil on Jan 21, 2016 10:17:18 GMT -5
For the sake of the prior baseball analogies that were posted here; no it's not the homerun many here are yearning for but I'll take this sweet little single to start the rally.... P.S. Stevil...depends on what the ~10% is based off of ...right? :-) as an optimist I'm thinking it must be 5-10 percent of more than you may be thinking. ..just my guess. ;-) Let's throw numbers out so people can see what we're talking about. I don't know how generous you want to be regarding future sales, but at around 10-15% sales royalties, (single digit to low double-digit) even at $1billion/year, we only get $100-150 million/year. That's roughly our current burn rate. I don't know about you, but I'm not nearly that generous in my estimates. It sounds like we have 3 drugs in the partnership, so maybe eventually they can all reach that number combined, but just to give you an idea, these were the top 200 drugs in 2010. If you want to assume these drugs will be in the top 200, they will net us at least $150mil/year x 3= 450 mil. So I think an average of 333 mil (x 3 to reach 1 bil) is quite generous as that would place them at an average of top 100 drugs. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? TBD. So we're not going to be able to develop the company further with R&D, not be able to hire new employees, not be able to pay a new CEO, although if Matt pulls this off we probably don't need one. But hopefully you get my point. This is merely a tourniquet right now to keep us from hemorrhaging out. This will not save the company by itself. We need more, and likely much better if we want this company to survive. From the comments, it sounds like Matt is still counting on Afrezza to become what we all hoped it would and that's what we're banking on. Keep the ship afloat long enough until Afrezza catches traction. I don't see how this deal does that for us in the short term, but I guess we need to take what we can get right now just to try. Top 200 drugs of 2010 www.drugs.com/top200.html
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Post by stevil on Jan 21, 2016 10:03:23 GMT -5
In short, this is a start. Gets the momentum rolling. But it's not going to sustain the company and we need much more than this in the future if we hope to stay in business. That's the crux - it's a start, and we needed to start somewhere. Right now I'll take any positive news and trust that there will be more collaborations to follow. I'm proud of management for doing all they can to ensure the success of the company. It's really all they can do at this point. Kudos to them for trying so hard. I just hope we can keep the lights on long enough for these kinds of partnerships to be beneficial. Otherwise, we're essentially giving the company away for free. It's hard to imagine more companies wouldn't be willing to make deals like these with the state we're currently in.
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Post by stevil on Jan 21, 2016 9:57:17 GMT -5
In short, this is a start. Gets the momentum rolling. But it's not going to sustain the company and we need much more than this in the future if we hope to stay in business. royalty is based of sales and not profitability / production costs / ? haha was this reply to me? I stated as much and nothing different. These drugs will likely not be blockbusters. One can hope if they want to, but even assuming best case scenario, this deal does little more than help us expand our portfolio and maybe buy us a couple months short term (or maybe none depending on how long it takes to get FDA approval, adoption, marketing, etc) and even then, it'll likely be years before we really get any sort of cash infusion from this deal. My point was that it's an attempt, and my fear is that it's the best we can do right now. Which means we're on a long and arduous path to profitability and we're going to have to get creative if we want to keep the lights on. We need much better than this if we're going to become a legitimate company in the next 5- 10 years.
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Post by stevil on Jan 21, 2016 9:41:46 GMT -5
Perhaps it's the "pessimist" in me, but I view this a few different ways, and none are inherently "good". First, we're essentially giving the drugs away for free. $100mil in milestones and single digit-low double digit % of sales? Let's call it 10%. I have no idea what MNKD is expecting these to project in yearly sales, but unless these drugs end up being blockbusters, they're not going to fund the year's worth of expenses. So here's why I'm so "pessimistic" on it. First, this was likely the best we could do. This is concerning to me, if true, as it means we may continue to have trouble finding favorable partners in the future. These drugs will not come out overnight, so the success of the drugs are unlikely to help us land any other big players near-term. No one has heard of this company so it will be unlikely to raise the SP much. Next, as others have stated, it won't really help us with our cash problem. $100 mil in milestones will probably be correlated to the drug's success, meaning high production will be needed to reach the milestone. Hopefully it's attainable, but even if we get the full $100 million, we're still not out of the woods. As Matt said, it's basically just enough nourishment to keep us alive so we can get Afrezza going. But we're still in starvation mode. To prove that I'm not 100% pessimistic (although it'll still be laced in pessimism the silver lining here is that it's exposure, even if slight. We're bringing another drug to market that will hopefully blaze a trail for other inhaled applications and take away any false stigmas associated with FDKP and inhaled medicine- why there would be any in the first place is anyone's guess as we've had inhaled drugs for years. So it seems like MNKD is doing whatever it takes to develop their company, even if it means essentially giving the early company away for free. That's sometimes what it takes, though. In short, this is a start. Gets the momentum rolling. But it's not going to sustain the company and we need much more than this in the future if we hope to stay in business.
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Post by stevil on Jan 20, 2016 13:52:51 GMT -5
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Post by stevil on Jan 15, 2016 17:27:41 GMT -5
Doing a little friday digging, I came across primatene mist, this product has been discontinued since the fda banned it for containing cfc. This inhalable epinephrine has not been available since. Primatene mist is owned by Armstrong Pharmaceuticals a subsidiary of Amphastar. Could this possibly be the first licensing agreement that was mentioned in the last slide of the jp. morgan powerpoint. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primatene_MistAmph 8/12/15 "With respect to Primatene, we are currently awaiting review comments from the FDA. We believe that once we receive the FDA’s comments, we should be able to.re-file the NDA approximately two months thereafter with an expectation of approval in 2016. The last full year sales of Primatene were $65 million in 2010. We believe that with some marketing efforts to inform consumers of its re-launch, we can see annual sales of Primatene eventually surpassing this number. We are still in the process of drafting a Phase 1/2 report for our Albuterol dry powder product candidate. We plan to file this report with the FDA in approximately two months and are currently working on proposed protocol for the Phase 3 study." Wish I could ask someone here to try to figure out how much it costs to produce TS particles Primatene used to be OTC and there was a number of people who were bummed about it in the pharmacy I worked in when it got discontinued. There were always a few packs in every tote that we unloaded. Pretty high demand. Hope the margins would be high enough to float us some extra cash... This would be a good start...
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Post by stevil on Jan 15, 2016 15:57:11 GMT -5
I'm not 100% sure that was the source of the article, it could be from any one of the 12k+ bloggers listed below it. One thing is for certain. It's easier to blog about Afrezza than get a prescription for it. 12K bloggers in less than a few days and yet Afrezza struggles get at least 250 new scripts a week. That is a bit bizarre ha. Good point.
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Post by stevil on Jan 15, 2016 15:56:17 GMT -5
You post a ton of good info harry and I don't mean for this post to be inflammatory. However, I can't understand why these theories get brought up so much and how this wouldn't be considered "FUD". There is nothing of substance here other than saying things aren't the way they ought to be. Besides, if people truly believe the game is fundamentally rigged, why play?
I can't wrap my head around people pointing to how corrupt and innately evil this business is with one hand and then pointing to why we should buy a product subject to the rules of said business. It's non sequitur.
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Post by stevil on Jan 14, 2016 21:57:29 GMT -5
oh please stevie, my father was a doctor, my brother is a doctor, my closest friend is a doctor, almost every person i spend a significant amount of time with is a doctor. i've followed the healthcare sector for decades. i know of what i speak. so please, stop. you have zero credibility, i don't care if you're long, short, or medium. Tell me how many of those people that you just mentioned are unethical and would fit in the "conspiracy theory" of others on this board. Your closest friend isn't someone with high character and good will? The people you spend most of your time with aren't "good people" and those whom you would like to associate with? I guess you need to find better company.../sarcasm. You don't even know what you're arguing...
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Post by stevil on Jan 14, 2016 21:54:23 GMT -5
Stevil, It's not complicated, and I don't need to know your life history. If you want to be taken seriously, accept the fact that you're a first year student, and don't intimate that you're anything more. If you want to be taken seriously, know the fact that MNKD shareholders have lost approximately $3.5 billion since the company signed up with Sanofi and don't suggest that nothing's been lost if sny ponies up a few bucks. If you want to be taken seriously, know that sny generates revenues of more than $40 billion a year, so $50k or $60k for ads means next to zero. If you want to be taken seriously, know that there are a lot of doctors who only care about money and spend most of their time jamming as many patients into their schedule and very little getting to educate themselves. Anyway, good luck. I did accept the fact that I'm a first year student? When did I not? When have I ever claimed supreme knowledge on anything I've stated? Only the Almighty can claim such a thing. I only share what I see and I was the one trying to cool the board down all the way back to the summer. So yes, I'd say that my opinion should probably be weighed because I've been right about the direction of MNKD stock since the summer. That's the purpose of a message board. To share thoughts and ideas. You somehow don't understand that concept and ruin everyone else's experience with your incessant whining that you can't block everyone's posts but yours and your unabated bullyism. A simple response to your argument would be to acknowledge that MNKD shareholders have lost $1.5 billion (but I'll not stoop with that alley-oop) since the SNY deal. However, where would we be without the deal? Likely in the same place. As others said on here, it was actually partially in our favor that SNY partnered with us for a year, save the tainted reputation (my argument). We essentially got a full year for half the price. While we didn't go very far, like I stated in my original argument, we weren't ever really going to get very far on our own anyway. SNY hasn't kept us from signing any TS deals, or are you going to contend that next? Remind me how many of those we have? Anyone who has done DD on this company knows that TS, not Afrezza, is the future of this company. If you want to complain about the SP, you should not point the finger at SNY. MNKD was compliant the whole time. And I only spoke to what I knew. A very cheap commercial (about the quality of a local supermarket commercial) costs about $50k to produce. I have no idea how much air time costs. And really, it's silly to argue about. The numbers aren't important. My point was that even one more dollar was more than what SNY wanted to spend on Afrezza. And there's nothing wrong with that. They were bound by contract from a deal made by a terminated CEO. SNY made up their mind about the direction of their company and that included leaving Afrezza in its trails. I'm not going to pretend that I'm a business major so I'll empty your gun before you can shoot it, but surely it's not hard to understand that's how business works. SNY didn't want Afrezza. Why would they continue to dump more money into it? That's not sandbagging. It's just a difference in visions and it's unfortunate that we got the shaft from it.
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Post by stevil on Jan 14, 2016 21:19:15 GMT -5
OMG.... I didn't know Stevil's background before so had stayed out of the fray. But, just reading his last few comments, I'm stunned at how much deference he's received. He plays doctor and he may end up being a good one, but he clearly doesn't have the experience, knowledge, or maturity to be taken too seriously. Seriously, look at the following comments, in quotations: 1. "While there are certainly a few bad apples who are only in it for the money, I can tell you the vast majority will do whatever is in the best interest of their patient. We take an oath for crying out loud." 2. "If SNY pays for the divorce and gives MNKD a decent chunk of cash, there really isn't much we can complain about in my opinion." 3. "And as I said earlier, I believe that they figured the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. I don't know how much commercials cost to air, but I have a friend who works in the film production industry and he told me that even cheap commercials cost about $50k to produce from a filming/editing standpoint." 4. "All SNY did was waste their own time and money if they were going to put us right back in the same spot they found us a year earlier." 5. "It didn't really hurt MNKD at all except for the tainted reputation we now have and the potential of signing with a better partner." 6. "Seeing that I am doing very well in my first year, it's merely a formality (and a lot of blood,sweat, and tears) at this point that I will be saying the oath with my classmates in a few years." 7. "The physicians that teach me look at me in the eye as one of their colleagues." 8. "While I obviously am not allowed to practice yet, that's good enough for me to feel like I can start saying "we"." Hey Stevil, or should I say little Stevie, I don't mean to be mean, but give me a f'n break. "we take an oath for crying out loud." You're a freakin first year student and probably still wearing diapers if any, let alone all of the above comments were made seriously. The teaching physicians don't see you as a colleague, please be serious. And please don't put the profession on such a tall pedestal, populated by a bunch of humanitarians. Like every other profession, some are good, and plenty are bad. Some have good motivations, others don't. I really can't get over how simplistically and naively you look at the situation. And I give the other members credit for having been as courteous as they have been with you. I'm sorry but I don't have that kind of patience or temperament. Grow up and listen more than you speak. I would like to be taken seriously, so I will stick up for myself. Never have I claimed any credentials that weren't duly earned. I'll share a little more about my background with you. I'm not saying it gives me a platform. I'd like to think that every opinion shared on this board is weighed with great care and consideration. But I'll give you my background so you know what angle I see things from. Then you can decide for yourself if what I say has any merit. I was a pharmacy technician for 7 years during my undergrad years as well as the last 3 years that I worked in hospital revenue and billing. I wasn't sure I wanted to go into medicine because Obamacare has drastically changed the landscape (let's not make this political. Just stating a fact) and I wanted to make sure that the sacrifice that I was about to make would be worthwhile. If you couldn't tell, I'm a generally pretty careful person. Sometimes I overanalyze. but I considered my future family before I decided to apply. I realized I wasn't getting any younger and the itch wasn't going away, so I decided to apply last year. I am currently a first year medical student. I'd like to believe that the "deference" that you're seeing has been the product of (mostly) respectful interactions and supported argument. But let's not turn this into a pissing match. I fear a lock is coming soon as this thread is getting thrown off track. It's truly amazing. If you just sit still and watch the ripples of this board, see who makes the biggest waves, who is most often wrong, who screams/complains the loudest, you'd find that it's all the same group of people. While I wouldn't expect the "soft bashers" to be given warm welcome, I can count on one hand how many truly weigh this board down. I don't have enough digits to say the same for "the other side". Moment of Zen. edit: greg, I'm simply trying to respectfully acknowledge you. I may have to disengage you in further discussion, but if you had any idea the sacrifice it takes to even make it through the first half of the first year of medical school (I have next year still to look forward to), then, and only then could you have the right to say what you just did. I did not elevate the profession at all. I simply defended it from people like you who have not rubbed shoulders with physicians their whole lives. My entire family is entrenched in medicine. You better believe that physicians are amazing humanitarians. There is far more money to be made elsewhere with half of the effort. The only thing that keeps me going right now is knowing that the end will justify the means. It's a daily process, reminding myself why I'm doing what I'm doing and who I'm doing it for. There's no way that I love myself enough to do this for myself. It's truly not worth it. Not right now... So please, think before you speak. Your insides are starting to show...
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Post by stevil on Jan 14, 2016 20:56:06 GMT -5
I can see your point, and it probably wouldn't bother me quite as much if I wasn't one who constantly stood behind Sanofi and basically defended them to the last day. That and considering the other two companies suing them for sandbagging the launch of their drugs to avoid paying sales milestones, and the tweet to a PWD from Canada the same day they notified MNKD the deal was off just leaves a real bad taste in my mouth. I have already Sanofi proofed my home, I'll never spend another penny on anything Sanofi unless it's to short the companies stock. I do respect your opinion and feel you offer a well balanced value to this board. Hopefully I can learn to do the same from now on, my high regards for Sanofi made me look like a fool. I will definetly learn from this and try to keep both sides of my brain turned on when I post. Good Luck Stevil Thanks for your kind words. I'd like to include myself as one of the MNKD family of shareholders. I'm not perfect. I'm down about 85% at the moment. I'm perplexed by some of the nasty posters on here that can't come to terms with reality and chase every unsubstantiated fantasy that gets randomly conjured by unknown individuals. I still can't get it out of my mind how people went and bought more shares on the anonymous $15 buy out with a 2:1 stock swap or whatever the rumor was. People dive in head first whenever they're told what they want to hear, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. Then they jump on people who may overdo it in the other direction, but only because I believe a good investor is a wise investor. People keep pointing to Warren Buffett and his investing prowess, but they either never read his story or are purposefully ignoring his MO. Warren Buffett would probably never have invested in a speculative biotech company. His whole premise was to "never lose money". He only invested in companies that were established and proven money makers with healthy fundamentals. MNKD had none of those. Still doesn't. So the only reason I try to stop people from dumping more of their hard-earned money into this stock is because it's still just a crapshoot at this point with the odds heavily against us. Anyway, I'm starting to rant. Thanks again for your compliments. I'll try to keep a balanced approach and share for all who care to read.
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Post by stevil on Jan 14, 2016 20:30:51 GMT -5
You're probably right. I'm not disagreeing with that. Again, I'm not saying that I like SNY. I just don't think that we can call what they did "sandbagging". They merely did the bare minimum until they were allowed to let us go. Who knows if Matt/Al would have even wanted to tell the shareholders what was going on. You think that would have improved the situation any more? We already had a bullseye on our back for the shorts. What we're seeing now would have still happened, only much sooner. What's also lost on people is that MNKD could have backed out whenever they wanted to. They clearly decided it was in their best interest to take the deal to term as well. It was truly just an unfortunate turn of events for MNKD shareholders and nothing more.
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Post by stevil on Jan 14, 2016 20:20:52 GMT -5
I have to agree. I can't speak for the drug and needle manufacturers- I'm sure they might be unethical, but I can say for certain that physicians do not view medicine in that way. Physicians will always have a job. There will always be some health crisis that needs an educated opinion and guidance. I'm sure you're well aware that the number of diabetics are growing. Prescribing Afrezza will not put any endos out of business. While there are certainly a few bad apples who are only in it for the money, I can tell you the vast majority will do whatever is in the best interest of their patient. We take an oath for crying out loud "We?" I believe you've said you're a pre-med student. Long way from taking the oath. The school that I'm going to had a 98% board pass percentage last year. I don't know the % of students that drop out/fail/take the 5 year plan, but it's higher than those who do not pass the boards. Seeing that I am doing very well in my first year, it's merely a formality (and a lot of blood,sweat, and tears) at this point that I will be saying the oath with my classmates in a few years. The physicians that teach me look at me in the eye as one of their colleagues. While I obviously am not allowed to practice yet, that's good enough for me to feel like I can start saying "we". While I'm sure my professional opinion will change over time as I grow and mature, this is one instance in which I feel qualified to include myself in such a way. In other words, 3 more years of schooling and 4 years of residency will not change that opinion.
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