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Post by stevil on Oct 2, 2015 17:13:06 GMT -5
I'm not disagreeing with you. Al Mann was a large part of the reason I took up a good chunk in the company as well. The guy is brilliant, diligent, and has a proven track record. Unfortunately, he's not the Almighty and there are other factors than just him. Everyone makes mistakes or didn't foresee every variable.
I'm not trying to dissuade anyone from owning MNKD. My apologies if I'm coming across that way. I'm just trying to level out some of the people who are certain this gamble is going to pay off one day.
I suppose it's none of my business, but it almost makes me sad? that so many people have put so much money into this company (and keep putting in more). Like I said, I'm not really worried about my investment- I doubled my money the last 3 years so I was essentially playing with house money anyway. As goofy as it sounds, though, I care about the health, wealth, and well-being of others on here and will do my best to help them keep their eyes wide open so they can make rational and objective decisions.
Best of luck to all. Back to studying :/
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Post by stevil on Oct 2, 2015 16:30:23 GMT -5
I'm usually a pretty logical person, but I disagree to an extent that things should be painted so black and white.
While I understand what you're saying (if I may paraphrase)- believe in the product and remind yourself why you invested in the first place- isn't ALWAYS good advice.
I'm young, so I'm going to hold onto my shares. I'm in medical school right now and I'll be in debt so far up to my eyeballs that anything lost in the stock market during this time is just a drop in the bucket for me. However, for those who have 10k+ or more shares- they stand a lot to lose by believing in the principles that caused them to invest.
Things aren't always what they seem, nor do things always go the way they should.
A wise investor stays informed on the current goings on and makes adjustments as needed. If I had a significant amount of money in MNKD, I'd likely pull out for now. I'd been keeping an eye on MNKD for awhile, waiting for the right time to jump in. I mistimed it and bought at the high, unfortunately. I thought that the time had finally come and it was now time to soar into the teens.
Long story short, it may not be a bad idea to pull out for now, put it in something like oil refinery stock, and then buy back in once your money has appreciated somewhere else. Again, I would probably do this my MNKD investment didn't get halved and I had more than $10k to play with.
Something smells rotten right now. Layoffs are never a good thing. That means MNKD went wrong somewhere in their forecasting. If they really expected such a slow roll out, either 1.SNY wasn't upfront and honest about how slow they were going to move or 2.MNKD mismanaged their resources and ran out sooner than they expected. Neither is a good sign. Or, there could be something else going on entirely like the drug just isn't selling as expected, etc. One thing is known- there is no good option to explain layoffs. Are there benefits to layoffs? Yes. But there is no good explanation for a layoff for a business the size of MNKD.
It's really good that you've made up your mind to stay in the stock, come hell or high water, but to insinuate that others have "weak hands" if they don't, isn't really fair.
I'd encourage everyone to stay as objective as possible. As you stated before, the gamble of a breakout may be higher than losing it all and a decision needs to be made on whether you want to roll the dice or not. But anyone thinking this is anything other than a gamble is simply ill-informed or blinded by their emotion. Right now, MNKD has not proven to be a good investment. The product doesn't make money and the cashflow of the company is less than their liabilities. I would love to be wrong about this- and I'm sure others will jump on me for writing it anyway- but there is no momentum right now for this stock.
Extremely long story short- A decision must be made about whether you are willing to weigh the risks with the rewards. But let's be fair to all- The odds are against MNKD succeeding. It's up to them to decide if the payout is worth the risk. Whenever I gamble, I like to know what my odds are and what the risk/reward is. We don't even know how much money MNKD can generate if it does become successful. So again, please be fair to all and not call them weak for selling. They are actually the ones who are smart (right now). The ones staying in it (me included) are gambling on getting lucky.
Call a spade a spade.
Sorry this was so long. I'm trying to do anything I can not to study.
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Post by stevil on Sept 3, 2015 19:00:41 GMT -5
I'm not too worried about it. The refill % is around 70%. Not all drugs work for everyone or get adopted well. 70% retention is pretty good, although I'd like to see even higher than that. Who knows, perhaps they'll go back to it once their doctor gets a little more exposure and knowledge about how this whole thing works. He/She may discuss possible problems/concerns the patient had with it and encourage them to give it another shot because it's working so well for everyone else. That's my hope at least Sounds like it's a little finicky to master, but once you do, it's smooth as glass.
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Post by stevil on Aug 26, 2015 12:50:35 GMT -5
Man, I can't imagine how many new patients a physician could get into their practice if they just started prescribing Afrezza. It seems like free advertising for their practice.
I'm currently unaware of how lawsuits work- Seems unfair to sue a physician prescribing an FDA approved drug, so if it's not fear of malpractice, what's holding a physician back from scooping up a bunch of new clients?
Diabetics would be good business, especially for the GPs.
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Post by stevil on Aug 2, 2015 0:33:53 GMT -5
Just wondering what the sentiment is on the board regarding the June spike in share price on extremely high volume. What was that?
I read various theories on ymb but none of them made sense. Did it just seem like an easy target with the dtc announcement likely?
Is it Matts fault for killing momentum by announcing we're not there yet?
I don't understand why we rose to mid 7 from low 3 in a matter of a couple months just to fall back again. It seems to me with dtc kicking off that shorts would want to hand the power back over to the longs. How much money is to be made at this price compared to the risk of the lid blowing off with a material event as was posed earlier?
anyone have insight?
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Post by stevil on Jul 30, 2015 0:55:35 GMT -5
It helps to remember that the early intensive insulin therapy may only be needed for a short period of time. Medformin is widely accepted as just the beginning of a lifetime of treatment, which eventually will include insulin once the pancreas is sufficiently damaged. There are many endocrinologists who would disagree with stevil's remark that Medformin works. For some reason, the articles Joey posted links to reminded me of the old saying, "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature." There is usually a physiological price to be paid with most drugs. Afrezza does NOT fool the body. It simply provides what the body needs - human insulin and the various signals human insulin sends to the brain and liver. It's why we are seeing very positive results with early adopters. I don't know why but it's extremely difficult taking criticism from someone who doesn't have an inkling of knowledge on the subject - you don't even know how to spell the drug. You probably have no healthcare background. I have worked in healthcare for over 8 years in a few different positions. I have had thousands of hours of patient interaction as it pertains to cost of medication and how that determines the method of care for the patient. Look, I'm long this stock and I'm holding on to it. I will never state that Afrezza is on the same level or only slightly superior to metformin. I'm saying that there has been a standard of care for years. Metformin first, insulin once the pancreas gets too damaged. That's the way it is and it won't change until Afrezza comes down in cost on copays. Afrezza will mostly appeal to affluent patients who have the luxury of being able to afford the medication. I've seen it thousands of times- patients choose lesser drugs based on cost. Metformin does work. I'm sure you can find endocrinologists that will dispute that. I'd be willing to bet the vast majority would disagree with those select few. Check out metformin script #s and let me know what you find. There have been dozens of diabetes meds that have come out since glucophage, but it's still the standard of care. Docs are familiar with it and there hasn't been anything disruptive enough to replace it. Hopefully Afrezza will. But it only will with either insanely successful research and/or it comes down in price significantly. My point (opinion) is Afrezza will not be the standard of care for type 2s anytime soon, if at all. Both research and cost will take years. The type 1 market is our best imo for sales. I hope Im wrong. I'm not trying to start a pissing match. I'm trying to add my perspective based on experience. Anyone expecting this to sell like hot cakes wasn't stupid, they were just naive. Matt has been saying for a while, "we're not there yet." This will take time. I'm just hoping this can move quickly enough to beat stem cell regeneration. Harvard has already started research on it and it sounds like it's in phase 1 trials. That's the only thing that can beat Afrezza. hsci.harvard.edu/news/stem-cells-billions-human-insulin-producing-cells
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Post by stevil on Jul 29, 2015 0:12:57 GMT -5
You guys are talking about domination of the market for Type 1 diabetics, who require daily basal injections (albeit allegedly less units while using Afrezza) and who account for roughly 10% of the diabetes treatment market.
The motherlode that Sanofi is really preparing to dig for is to have Afrezza insulin therapy replace Medformin as the standard first treatment for pre- and early-diabetics. Remember, Medformin doesn't "fix" anything nor keep the pancreas from deteriorating. Afrezza, on the other hand, has been shown to have remarkable "regenerative" effects on the pancreas and liver.
I wouldn't worry about Sanofi executives fretting over the impact on Lantus, when there is a whole world of Type 2 treatment with the potential to generate many times the revenue that Lantus/Toujeo account for.
Some pharmaceutical executives may frown on the idea of "remission" since it means that, unlike Type 1's, many early Type 2 patients may only need to receive intensive therapy for a relatively short period of time using Afrezza. Then, when the pancreas has "rested" and their bodies' control of blood glucose appears to be functioning normally again, they need only maintain a regimen of diet and exercise.
Stop and think about the PR benefits to a pharmaceutical company for a drug like that. Medformin cannot make that claim, nor any analog insulin, GLP-1's or the latest and greatest within the "alphabet soup" of diabetes treatments.
Afrezza is the only one which will have the ability to boast that it may be effectively used initially as a short-term treatment to stop the deterioration of the pancreas and, in essence, to stop the progression and possibly even remission of this destructive disease at its onset.
Afrezza truly represents a paradigm shift in the treatment of diabetes that can and will add years to the lives of millions, lives that can be lived normally. It's a fact not being overlooked by Sanofi and it should NOT be overlooked by long-term investors in MNKD.
I worked in the pharmacy in undergrad and unfortunately I don't see Afrezza overtaking metformin anytime soon, if ever, as the drug of choice for physicians. It would take an amazing amount of momentum to change the sentiment of stubborn docs. They get in habits and prescribe what they're comfortable with and what they know. They know metformin works. And, most importantly, it's cheap. It's a $4 drug vs. $400/month. I don't see either physicians or patients choosing the more expensive option unless afrezza can cure type 2s and reverse diabetes. As a maintenence med it doesn't make much sense unless the patient has deep pockets. Here's to hoping afrezza can cause a paradigm shift.
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Post by stevil on Jul 13, 2015 12:48:25 GMT -5
I'm new to biotech stocks.
From what I've gathered, MNKD doesn't follow the trend anyway.
How would earnings impact us since so much of it is future speculation? Is there such thing as a "bad" earnings report, assuming sales keep increasing? Who determines whether sales have missed or not? Is there a number out there to anyone's knowledge?
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Post by stevil on Jul 10, 2015 11:54:01 GMT -5
Good news (albeit small).
Just got done talking to my pharmacist friend. He said Afrezza was featured in this quarter's Pharmacy MPR. It's a quarterly informational journal used to educate pharmacists.
So word is slowly getting out. Making progress...
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Post by stevil on Jul 8, 2015 13:14:39 GMT -5
Excellent news. Thank you from a stockholder and humanitarian perspective. It's a win-win if this drug takes off. It's cool to see the whole community buying in and showing how much we believe in this product. I'm a future med student (start next month ) and if I have the opportunity to prescribe this medication in 4 years, you bet I will do my part!
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Post by stevil on Jul 8, 2015 10:49:01 GMT -5
Thanks BD. Thicker skin it is then. I'll write for those who care to learn from my opinions and block out the ones that don't, I suppose.
Like I stated earlier, I was a pharm tech during my undergrad. That doesn't amount to a hill of beans, but I did gain some experience talking to drug reps while I was there.
My guess is that SNY is waiting to do commercials until they have their label changed to allow them to boast all of its best qualities. I think they're waiting for the latest trials to finish so they can claim superiority. That way it's not just another drug flooding the market. Exubera showed inhaled insulin isn't gimmicky enough to be successful. They need the science and results to show why it is better than every other drug that's available.
The reps can tell the doctors what they're finding in the studies- all they have to do is point them to the data points. The FDA won't allow them to market the drug the way they want until they can change the label.
I am not concerned at all with how SNY is rolling Afrezza out. Like many others have stated, the market is saturated with drugs- with more coming. Let's let SNY and MNKD show others why theirs is a head above the rest. If Afrezza is as remarkable as it's showing to be, time only allows more data points to be gathered and further prove its superiority. The only thing I think we need to worry about is the next "big thing" when technology improves. I've been researching and from what I've gathered, there isn't anything showing as much promise as Afrezza that will be approved in the next several years. I think nanotechnology is the only thing that can take us down at this point and that is still in its infancy.
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Post by stevil on Jul 8, 2015 9:18:06 GMT -5
I give up. You guys nitpick every little thing I say.
I address the question about how many people know about Afrezza and you start getting super critical about the smallest details. I'm just reporting the facts from my small world.
Without insulin, people would probably die in a matter of a couple years. With insulin, they can live 60+. I have an uncle who has been diabetic for nearly 60 years. I'd say that's pretty effective, regardless of whether his blood sugar is optimal and his life is "normal" by non diabetic standards. He's had some toes amputated over the years and has to wear a brace for drop foot, but he's just glad modern medicine has allowed him to watch his grandchildren grow up.
Believe me, I'm probably the biggest believer of Afrezza on the board. I'm a biochem major and I understand much of the science behind it. It's phenomenal what MNKD accomplished. But you guys act like it's doing something other drugs can't. While that's true to an extent because it works faster, mimics a healthy pancreas, will save the body damage over many years, etc, diabetics can "get by" with injections for the most part. Most of them have accepted that they'll need shots the rest of their lives and don't seek out something better because they just think this is the way it is. Without someone telling them a better alternative is out there, they're unlikely to become aware of it. Not everyone is actively pursuing a cure to their disease like you think. I really don't understand what's so hard to understand about that.
Forgive me, but I'll be bowing out from here and just lurking on the board. It doesn't appear I'm adding anything to the discussion anyway.
Cheers.
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Post by stevil on Jul 7, 2015 14:49:39 GMT -5
Ha, I'm just reporting the facts. Whether you want to believe me or not is up to you. It's really not that hard to understand. If people have a regimen that works well for them, or what they think is the best available option because "it's always been that way", and don't know that the inhaled insulin works faster and doesn't cause hypos with as much regularity, they're not very keen on change. She only heard about the inhaled insulin because of the artificial pancreas. She went to a conference, and from the sound of it, the presenters may have been from the same company who made this video. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGgGjtM5ipgShe was more excited about the artificial pancreas and not having to measure dosages but having the machine adjust in real time. Or, maybe it's because Afrezza isn't approved yet for kids so she didn't even waste more time researching it. I don't know what to tell you... I'm not making this up ha.
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Post by stevil on Jul 7, 2015 11:18:47 GMT -5
Forget patients. I used to work as a pharmacy technician during my undergrad schooling (thought I wanted to be a pharmacist) and have reached out to pharmacists. Not a single one of them has heard of it. I can't imagine any but the crazy type A on-the-ball diabetics have heard of this medication. And those are probably the ones that are currently on it.
I had a coworker whose daughter has type 1. She has a glucose monitoring system implanted that measures her blood sugar every 15 min. She has the app on her iphone so she can keep tabs on her daughter because she's young and naive about the seriousness of this disease. Her mom is obsessive about her daughter's diabetes, keeps up on all the latest news, and all she knew was that there was an inhaled insulin but didn't know anything more about it.
There just aren't that many facts out there for people to find. I'm thinking SNY is doing a slow roll out until they can change the label and claim superiority. I think they really fear what Exubera did and want to make sure the cannon is fully loaded with powder before lighting the fuse.
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