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Post by stevil on Oct 16, 2015 0:44:01 GMT -5
Sorry, I didn't look at what was written. I briefly skimmed over the print and saw MNKD and SEC. I see now that these are stock options for MNKD employees.
Ha y'all need to chill. I have never claimed to be anything more than I am. And that's 8 years as a pharm tech and 3 and a half in a hospital/clinical setting and now a medical student. I am by no means an expert in anything yet. Certainly not in the stock market. I have only been trading/investing for a few years.
JPG, I use reason and logic when analyzing the future of the company. I don't know your background, but you seem well-versed in the sciences. I would encourage you to go back and read my posts. They're always based in fact and supported with plenty of details to explain why I reach the conclusions I reach. I try to bring my knowledge and expertise to the board in hopes of exposing different angles that many here don't seem to see. I have the benefit of not being blinded by my idealistic optimism for this stock like some here who are convinced this stock cannot fail. I have both pumped and calmed expectations when I feel it is appropriate to do so. My posting history will validate that.
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Post by stevil on Oct 15, 2015 20:59:35 GMT -5
I know enough to know that MNKD believes they have caught someone in foul play, but would someone kindly translate for those of us who aren't savvy with investment jargon?
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Post by stevil on Oct 14, 2015 19:18:29 GMT -5
I'd heard Al wouldn't do Viagra because it was too dangerous to dilate the blood vessels through an inhalant. But if they could somehow do it, THAT would be our blockbuster for sure. This would fund every single other application we could dream of. I think the protocol now calls for an hour before sexual activity, unless you're on the 5mg once daily Cialis. Don't know much about that one. But if you could take a puff and then get frisky immediately, MNKD would be swimming in cash.
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Post by stevil on Oct 14, 2015 9:34:48 GMT -5
Not sure what people think about me, if I'm considered a soft basher because I'm no longer hot on this stock because of management - however, I'd like to be added as well. I like to be informed so I can make rational decisions. I'll just lurk and not post. But I like being a part of the discussion. Thanks for any consideration
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Post by stevil on Oct 13, 2015 20:22:12 GMT -5
Lol this board is losing its mind.
Grabbing some popcorn...
Boom or bust folks with the odds heavily against us. Not sure why yall keep freaking out. Just need to accept that this stock will either go bankrupt or it will eventually gain traction and booms. Pray someone will buy us out before BK though if it goes that route.
Demand will likely come from patients, so don't expect SP to increase, if it does at all, until you see commercials. Just the way it is...
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 23:18:03 GMT -5
I don't disagree with anything you said. You seem to have missed the thesis of my argument so I'll try to reiterate.
It would be wonderful for every one of these drugs to be made for TS. They all have practical purposes. They all would work better than what is currently out there.
Making money off of these generics is unlikely for 2 reasons (among others probably):
1. Insurance won't cover them.
If they do, they'll require a prior authorization or will charge a brand copay. PAs only make sense for chronic users. However, most people I met in the pharmacy, sans chemo patients, needed an ODT- oral dissolvable tablet- for their Zofran, and right away. It's not a tablet that needs to be swallowed because it will dissolve in their mouth. 90% of the scripts were for acute episodes that wouldn't have made sense to wait for a P.A. because they would be fine within the next couple days if not sooner.
2. Patient willingness to pay more money for the same medication.
This seems to be the one you're referencing. $10 would be a steal for a brand copay. I have not seen many insurance companies that offer that as a brand copay. Typically, Tier 2 was $25/$40, Tier 3 $50/$75. Something like that. Very rarely was the brand copay less than 2.5 times as much as the generic copay. While there are some extenuating circumstances that would justify paying that much a premium for a product, what you essentially described is a niche product. It's extremely hard to make money off of a niche product unless you charge hundreds to thousands of dollars per dose, depending on how much demand their is for that niche. That won't fly here.
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 12:34:01 GMT -5
That's what I'm talking about, Lakers. It may be that MNKD's contribution to this generation isn't the medicine, but the route of delivery through TS. If they were smart, they'd try to get all new medications formulated to work with TS (assuming they can all be compatible with FDKP) and focus solely on being a "technology" company or something like that. At least until they get enough money to start developing their own novel drugs. I don't see anything on the horizon that shows they will be able to make enough to develop more drugs. Most drugs nowadays cost nearly a billion dollars to bring to the market. $3 mil/ quarter isn't gonna do it...
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 10:40:27 GMT -5
I'm not going anywhere because I don't like losing half my value. If I lose it all, so be it. I'm married to this stock because I want to see it succeed. I want a paradigm shift in medicine because I'll be practicing in a couple years.
People don't consider that the reason not much comes out of MNKD is because they have nothing good to report. No news is better than bad news. We're not there yet and this will still be a blockbuster someday is the best ammunition they've got.
The few kernels they've released, "embarrassment of riches" and Hakan s late September comment have yet to materialize or were shot down from the horse's mouth.
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 10:07:30 GMT -5
Mssciguy,
There are a lot of intelligent people on here. A lot of people who do a lot of good research.
You underestimate people's greed. MNKD isn't a secret. There have been numerous articles published about it, the ticker has been shown on stock channels, Cramer has talked about us on his show...
If MNKD was a money maker, it would be one by now. Hedgies don't take senseless risks. There's a reason so many are short this stock. It's the safe bet because we don't have Elon Musk at the helm. Neither TSLA not SCTY are worth what people pay for them. TSLA is all hype and SCTY is the biggest legal ponzi scheme of our day.
You hit the nail on the head though. IF he was our CEO, our Stock would trade multiples higher. But he's not. And he's never going to be. We're stuck with what we've got and either Matt/Hakan is to blame or SNY is realizing this isn't worth dumping billions of dollars into because it's not going to justify those expenses.
There's still a chance that the slow roll out is by design. The tea leaves would suggest otherwise but it's possible. But it's Afrezza or bust for the next 5 years and I'm not feeling good about our chances at the moment.
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 9:47:16 GMT -5
Please re read the superior convenience and ultra acting effectiveness that TS offers over current meds for PAH, Antiemetic, Pain, Oxytocin, Oxyntomodulin. I did. Please read my comment about who will pay more for convenience and speed of delivery. Is it worth $20-$30 more to get the same medication? Convenience is debatable. Inhaling may be harder for some than swallowing. Both are pretty simple, though. So really it comes down to speed. If you have to wait 30 min at the pharmacy after driving to the doctors office and then the pharmacy, are you going to be in that big of a rush to pay 3 times as much money for the same drug? And that's if insurance will cover it. We're already seeing the hassle P.As are causing Afrezza. So there goes your speed too. we have formulated oxytocin in a dry, stabilized form which can be loaded into a robust, very inexpensive, disposable inhaler, eliminating at the same time the need for injection. Administration by inhalation at last makes treatment possible outside centres with trained medical staff. Some 98% of our formulation of oxytocin survives 8 months at 40°C, and the inhaler has proved a highly efficient means of delivery. Very safe, convenient in places that lack refrigerators. Please re-read.[/quote] Ha ha I don't have a reading comprehension problem. Think about what you're saying. Yes, the science is amazing to allow for the things you just described. But what you described will benefit 3rd world countries, not the US, where most of the pharma money comes from. MNKD isn't providing anything new with any of those possibilities. Because of that, few insurance companies will pay for convenience. They cover the cheapest available drug because that's what is best for their bottom line. Some plans offer flexibility with prior authorizations but you're seeing how big of an impediment those are with Afrezza. I was a pharmacy technician while completing my undergrad and even worked 2 jobs while at the hospital. I know how this stuff works with insurance and patient's willingness to spend more for convenience. I have 8 years experience and worked at probably 40 different locations over that time. I'm just upset with myself I was so myopic with Afrezza to not consider these things sooner. I'm in this for humanitarian reasons also, but let's all be honest- none of us invested thousands to hundreds of thousands to donate to charity. We are in this also to make money and grow our retirement funds. I'm just not seeing it...
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 1:21:26 GMT -5
Please re read the superior convenience and ultra acting effectiveness that TS offers over current meds for PAH, Antiemetic, Pain, Oxytocin, Oxyntomodulin.[/quote] I did. Please read my comment about who will pay more for convenience and speed of delivery. Is it worth $20-$30 more to get the same medication? Convenience is debatable. Inhaling may be harder for some than swallowing. Both are pretty simple, though. So really it comes down to speed. If you have to wait 30 min at the pharmacy after driving to the doctors office and then the pharmacy, are you going to be in that big of a rush to pay 3 times as much money for the same drug? And that's if insurance will cover it. We're already seeing the hassle P.As are causing Afrezza. So there goes your speed too.
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 1:15:41 GMT -5
This may sound crazy but if I were MNKD, I'd market the dreamboat to big pharmas and see if I could get a commission per sale.
I see way more success that way than developing generics.
If MNKD can't create novel products, just sell the rights to dreamboat and be done with it.
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Post by stevil on Oct 10, 2015 1:03:06 GMT -5
Zofran sells for less than $0.50/pill and I can't remember how much imitrex is... I think it was about $15 for a 9 pack?
I really wish I would have considered insurance more when I was doing my DD. I don't really think TS will have much success on the already generic drugs. Not many insurance companies will pay for a reformulated generic.
Even if they do, will it be worth it to the patient to spend $30 - $40+ for their brand copay as opposed to a $5/$10 generic copay for the same medication, just administered more quickly?
The only way MNKD can survive on the generic market is high volume and low cost. In theory, nearly any drug would be better inhaled than ingested. So much metabolism occurs before the active ingredients get to the gut for absorption. But will they be able to monopolize an entire market with the dreamboat?
I know I've been pessimistic lately - sorry to the longs that it offends - but can anyone explain how they see this company making money in the next 2 years off of TS? They all seem like niche products.
Pain seems to me to be the only money maker. People will pay for better pain control, but I fear not much else. And even then the increase in cost has to be reasonable.
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Post by stevil on Oct 6, 2015 12:28:56 GMT -5
Looks like only 30 participants in the study. Hopefully that will be enough for a label change. Small sample size, though...
Briefly glanced at it... does anyone know where to find the results of the study?
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Post by stevil on Oct 3, 2015 15:31:46 GMT -5
Plausible theory.
Highly, highly unlikely though. I don't think companies are vindictive like this nor waste much time making such plans when so much remains to be done. You're also forgetting to factor in the layoffs. That's about the only empirical evidence we have right now on the state of the company.
Also, MNKD isn't going to rocket into the 30s when the news breaks. Shorts probably won't get fried as badly as many here seem to think. I have no idea what I'm talking about with pricing, but I can't imagine MNKD can go much higher than 9-12 in the short term. Not sure why so many think there will be this massive short squeeze when there are so many docs that have yet to hear about Afrezza. It's gonna take time if it comes at all.
Please be careful y'all. This is the kind of thinking that is going to get you into deep, deep trouble.
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