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Post by mannmade on Jun 16, 2018 15:56:52 GMT -5
Yes but as I understand it, Dance is the same old insulin. (I could be wrong) and if it is then it is hexameric and still will take longer to get in the system. Also I believe mnkd has a simpler device/system for inhalation. In any event what humalog and Novolog have shown us is that there is room for more than one.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 16, 2018 14:34:21 GMT -5
As we approach the start of ADA (at roughly the midpoint of 2018) I thought it might be good to recap what we have to look forward to this year both pro and con: A. The Pros 1. ADA Stat Study and Hypo Study 2. Term sheet (possibly China?) 3. Possible second term sheet (Mexico or Canada?) 4. Trep T Partner (upfront cash payment?) 5. One Drop partnership for direct pay subscription 6. Better Insurance Coverage 7. Gradual trend of increasing scripts and revenue 8. Mike’s assurances we will meet guidance 9. RLS, anyone??? 10. Approval of AFREZZA for Brazil 11. Possible Fast track of AFREZZA in India 12. Start of Trep T Phase 3 13. Reduction of Deerfield Debt w final payment in 2019, leaving only Mann Group as a major debtor 14. New Commercial and more commercials 15. Dr. K continued publishing and outreach w his advisory board 16. Continued growth of cgm penetration and with it the growth of importance of TIR, which helps us B. The Cons 1. Need for cash: Dilution on it before August? Or something non-dilutive? Likely dilution 2. Payment to Deerfield in July with stock also dilutive 3. Scripts and revenue do not grow as expected 4. Dilution in 1st Q 2019 I would say the Pros outweigh the The Cons imho at this point in time. Please note if I have left anything out either Pro or Con please feel free to add. This is only meant to be an outline to start a conversation about what we might expect over next six months until end of year. Also I have only included those items both pro and con which imho are real possibilities and have tried to avoid the truly speculative with no basis or reference points making them worth inclusion on either list. Forgot to add that the above is with apparently no competition for next 7 to 10 year’s... according to both Mike C and Dr. K. |
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Post by mannmade on Jun 16, 2018 10:48:23 GMT -5
As we approach the start of ADA (at roughly the midpoint of 2018) I thought it might be good to recap what we have to look forward to this year both pro and con:
A. The Pros
1. ADA Stat Study and Hypo Study
2. Term sheet (possibly China?)
3. Possible second term sheet (Mexico or Canada?)
4. Trep T Partner (upfront cash payment?)
5. One Drop partnership for direct pay subscription
6. Better Insurance Coverage
7. Gradual trend of increasing scripts and revenue
8. Mike’s assurances we will meet guidance
9. RLS, anyone???
10. Approval of AFREZZA for Brazil
11. Possible Fast track of AFREZZA in India
12. Start of Trep T Phase 3
13. Reduction of Deerfield Debt w final payment in 2019, leaving only Mann Group as a major debtor
14. New Commercial and more commercials
15. Dr. K continued publishing and outreach w his advisory board
16. Continued growth of cgm penetration and with it the growth of importance of TIR, which helps us
B. The Cons
1. Need for cash: Dilution on it before August? Or something non-dilutive? Likely dilution
2. Payment to Deerfield in July with stock also dilutive
3. Scripts and revenue do not grow as expected
4. Dilution in 1st Q 2019
I would say the Pros outweigh the The Cons imho at this point in time.
Please note if I have left anything out either Pro or Con please feel free to add. This is only meant to be an outline to start a conversation about what we might expect over next six months until end of year.
Also I have only included those items both pro and con which imho are real possibilities and have tried to avoid the truly speculative with no basis or reference points making them worth inclusion on either list.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 15, 2018 9:02:22 GMT -5
FDA
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Post by mannmade on Jun 15, 2018 8:39:22 GMT -5
Posted an answer to this earlier but here it is again... $$$$$ and priorities...
Not to say I wouldn’t like to see...
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Post by mannmade on Jun 15, 2018 8:27:36 GMT -5
With the exception of last week a holiday shortened week (however in reality if prorated it still counts) we have now seen an upward trend in scripts and revenue for six straight weeks. Need more but with Dr. K and team spreading the word we should be gaining positive momentum on the trend in coming weeks, months imho...
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Post by mannmade on Jun 13, 2018 17:49:35 GMT -5
Yes or if it were anticipated to negatively effect stock price.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 13, 2018 17:24:44 GMT -5
If it were truly bad news wouldn’t they have to disclose as material to shareholders? Asking...
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Post by mannmade on Jun 13, 2018 17:09:22 GMT -5
Partner? IDK but one can dream...
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Post by mannmade on Jun 9, 2018 18:36:10 GMT -5
The relevance of the above article imho to mnkd long is that TIR will most likely become the standard measurement over Hba1c with the sucess of CGM's. And we know no other product on the market helps manage TIR better than Afrezza.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 9, 2018 18:33:43 GMT -5
www.cnbc.com/2018/06/08/diabetes-technological-wave-has-too-much-upside-to-ignore-jp-morgan.htmlDiabetes 'technological wave' has too much upside to ignore: JP Morgan The ongoing changes to glucose monitoring are so important, Marcus added, that medical device companies such as Dexcom are set for "significant" upside. "The diabetes space is currently experiencing its biggest technological wave of innovation from glucose measurement to insulin dosing," analyst Robbie Marcus wrote Friday. Dexcom's stock is up more than 62 percent so far this year. Shares extended their 2018 gains Friday, climbing nearly 4 percent. Thomas Franck | @tomwfranck Published 3:59 PM ET Fri, 8 June 2018 Updated 6:35 PM ET Fri, 8 June 2018 CNBC.com After the sensor warmed up, it was off by 25 mg. CNBC | Erin Black After the sensor warmed up, it was off by 25 mg. New technologies for diabetes treatment are becoming essential for those who suffer from the disease, according to J.P. Morgan, and that could make companies such as Dexcom compelling investment opportunities. "The diabetes space is currently experiencing its biggest technological wave of innovation from glucose measurement (continuous glucose monitoring) to insulin dosing (insulin pumps)," analyst Robbie Marcus said in a note to clients Friday. "CGM is becoming an essential tool for patients and is now at the level of sensitivity that it is eliminating the need for fingersticks with blood glucose monitoring." Technological advances for glucose checking are so important, Marcus added, that medical device companies such as Dexcom are set for "significant" upside over the next few years. Marcus upgraded shares of Dexcom to overweight and raised his price target on the company to $115 from $80, implying 28 percent upside over the next year. Dexcom, which produces devices that attach to a patient's skin to monitor blood-glucose levels continuously, has the potential to crush consensus revenue estimates, the analyst added. He predicts that the San Diego-based company could reach $876 million this year, which would beat expectations of $860 million. CNBC's Erin Black inserts the Dexcom G6 sensor This diabetes monitor can read your blood sugar without any blood 8:56 AM ET Sat, 12 May 2018 | 03:16 "Treatment is shifting towards integrated pumps where the CGM dictates insulin dosing, and in our view the CGM is the much more valuable component of that equation than the pump," Marcus explained. "We think the Street is being too conservative on the near-term sustainability of Dexcom's hardware business (transmitters and receivers) and assuming a significant headwind to both new patient adds and base business patient attrition." Dexcom's stock is up more than 62 percent so far this year. Shares extended their 2018 gains Friday, climbing nearly 4 percent. "One of the hidden assets of Dexcom is this investment we've made in technology," chief executive Kevin Sayer told "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer in November. "Our system offers features that competitors don't. We connect to phones. We share data with people who watch patients. We offer performance and accuracy that others don't."
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Post by mannmade on Jun 9, 2018 13:45:29 GMT -5
I would say the timing of this is excellent... A bit of unexpected good news to go along with the upcoming ADA Stat/Hypo presentations, expectation of another term sheet (or two possibly China and Mexico), potential partnership announcement for TrepT, possible one drop direct script partnership announcement,
Insurance seems to be slowly getting better.
Then there are the anecdotal reports that more pcp’s and endos are starting to ask about Aftezza.
And let’s not forget the possible momentum coming from the push by cgm makers for TIR as new SOC, more consistent publications by Dr. K, his relationships including with the head of US HHS Dept (former head of Lilly,) the scientific advisory board, and the new ADA conversation on SOC.
The only clouds hanging over mnkd are possible near term dilution and scripts (which are climbing lately if ever so slowly) but at least a consistent growth in weekly revenue.
And then there is the apparent increase in institutional buying.
While all of the above is speculative at the moment, none of it is without possibility from what we know. It should be a very eventful 6 months....
The shorts must be seeing all of this.... GLTAL’s
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Post by mannmade on Jun 6, 2018 14:01:29 GMT -5
Just hit $2.00 on very low vilume
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Post by mannmade on Jun 5, 2018 17:17:19 GMT -5
Also avoids any hint of insider trading.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 5, 2018 14:26:11 GMT -5
Let’s not forget for whatever reason, Dr. K said he does not think any additional studies are needed right now. So he must feel he has the research information and results to back his stmt that AFREZZA will become the soc.
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