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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 18, 2016 13:16:18 GMT -5
Another possible reason, much money has come out of VRX and CXRX in the last week and it has to go somewhere. I imagine big investors already have full positions in the large drug / pharma / and related companies, so at least some of the money coming out is being distributed among the smaller ones. I've noticed another small drug company I watch (ONCY) is also up over 50% this week on no news, for instance. Anyone's guess but it appears that someone knows something and is either getting out of their short position or someone is very eager to pick up shares knowing that something cosmic is about to happen. It would be nice for once to get significantly great news that proves that Mannkind is on solid foundation for once. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 18, 2016 11:19:16 GMT -5
Latest thoughts: Those in charge of Al's affairs are covering his massive short position (that no one knew he had). We've been transported to a parallel universe. This is a grand group illusion - everyone not associated with MNKD reads the price as $1.01. If Al was smart, he would have had shorted his own company knowing how strong a force there was against his company. Would not that be interesting to see that cash made from shorting his own stock funneled back into the company? |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 17, 2016 9:58:34 GMT -5
Going back to Matt's comment that he doesn't "expect" (was that the term he used) to tap the 30 million loan i took to mean he foresees money coming from somewhere as others have pointed out. If however a big chunk or all of that money is expected to come from any SNY settlement, and there turns out to be disagreement and then a dispute, i would think Mannkind then taps that 30 million to pursue said money. Is that the best use of that money? Not sure. But it would seem....for lack of a better phrase...a 'commercially reasonable' use of it imo If I had to guess, I think cash is coming from deals over seas. I think Mannkind is going to sell the rights to Afrezza for up front cash and % of sales. I am thinking 3 deals. One for Europe, Asia and the Middle East (Israel primarily). As much as I hope for a cash settlement from SNY, I am starting to think there won't be one. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 11:28:29 GMT -5
I don't see this as a problem. Recruitment has halted but not the study itself. Huge difference.
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 11:27:10 GMT -5
Matt announced that FOUR abstracts have been accepted by the ADA and that two more will soon be submitted. It sounds like our new Chief Commercial Officer will have little problem separating Afrezza from the rest of the pack. I hope that he will also start using "monomer insulin" along with the Afrezza name. More and more we're hearing testimonials about the benefits of Afrezza in CONTROLLING blood glucose. The fact that it's not injected isn't what's being discussed. It's how well it's working. 
I think you might be getting a bit ahead of yourself in thinking the 4 abstracts are going help Afrezza separate itself from the pack. Remember, the company can't claim anything other than what the FDA has allowed it under the current approval. We don't know the content of these abstracts and we don't know if they contain anything that will allow Mannkind to petition the FDA to further enhance the label. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 10:21:52 GMT -5
I'll even put forth another unpleasant theory... I think Mannkind may have delayed the full year reporting just so they could at least introduce the new guy in hopes of preventing further stock price erosion with the company's precarious financial position and lack of any answers to any questions that they knew would be asked. Or is it just a coincidence that he started literally the same day as the rescheduled date? That's my theory anyway. Feel free to agree or disagree I think they postponed it because of some write offs they decided to include. Matt mentioned it yesterday. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 9:51:51 GMT -5
My takeaway is this. Given the information that we know, the situation is dire and they could run out of cash in the near future. Yesterday, Matt seemed fairly confident, and he did not seem to be worried at all about the cash situation. The optimist in me would like to think that Matt knows that there is a check on the way that we don't know about, but my optimism has let me down on this stock. I am not sure what to think of the absence of Technosphere from the discussions. It's probably that there is nothing new to report here, and they did not want to take time to talk about it. I hope it doesn't mean that future TS applications have been put on hold. There are a lot of different things that could spark this stock. We need one of them to happen in the near term. Did you hear Matt or did you read the transcript? Matt couldn't say whether or not something is in the works but he didn't sound worried about the company's finances going forward. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 9:10:13 GMT -5
While I can't say for certain why he left Amgen, I can only guess the thought of being the head guy of a smaller company to push its only drug is a challenge he didn't want to pass up considering he has a year of data to see how the drug has done with patients who have used it and love it. How many people love the drugs they are on? Not many. Many wish they didn't have to be on them. Castagna now has a great opportunity to take a battered and misunderstood drug and turn it into something we all hope it can be. If he's successful with Afrezza, he'll probably be deemed as one of the best drug marketers in the business if not ever.
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 9:05:47 GMT -5
Not defending Olsen or GS, but asking tough questions and making estimates and forecasts on skimpy data is what he is paid to do. Anybody can wait two or three quarters to see how a new product is shaping up before making a recommendation, but by then the profitable trades are gone. Olsen works for GS and, indirectly, for clients of GS and has no obligation to do anything other than call them like he sees them. Do be careful when reading the tea leaves based on "institutional ownership". The numbers as reported are a function of the reporting rules under the Investment Companies Act of 1940 and don't necessarily reflect reality. If I were to own a brokerage and any of you were clients of my brokerage, the shares you bought in MNKD would be reflected in my quarterly reports as buys despite the fact that the brokerage itself sold shares or the holding were unchanged. A lot of things get rolled into the reported number; index funds, sector funds, self-directed IRAs, corporate pension funds for which GS is the custodian, trading house inventory, client managed accounts, and many more where GS is 100% uninvolved with the investment decision. A larger number for a diversified financial giant like Goldman does not mean that Goldman believes in MNKD any more than a smaller number means they have turned sour on MNKD. The only institutional numbers that mean anything are those of "pick and hold" fundamental investment funds who are showing their true opinions in their share counts, and there are precious few of those. Listening to a Mannkind CC is like Groundhog day. It's just reliving the same thing over and over. There never is any guidance and Wall Street knows that the questions they ask won't and can't be answered to their liking. I think we all wish Mannkind would be at a place where they can forecast but they can't for obvious reasons. And that is why Wall Street is so negative on the stock. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 8:41:48 GMT -5
Look at the Amgen stock chart while the he was the CCO. I would say he's a very good fit for Mannkind/Afrezza, etc. Do you really believe he was a catalyst for Amgen's stock price, a company with more than 17,000 employees? |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 15, 2016 7:44:35 GMT -5
Exactly!!! Bottom line is GS added. This will turn around and do so quickly IMO - as soon as SNY is completely out of the picture. I would be careful. I do not know where that number comes from but there has been no new 13F filed. and no idea what the shares are being used for and to automatically think it means they are bullish on MNKD. Their rating of the stock says otherwise. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 14, 2016 19:48:05 GMT -5
Also sounded to me like all other TS work has been scrapped for now. That may mean layoffs have happened to conserve cash. And a thought on Jay Olsen, at least he finally got matt to admit sanofi didnt do much in so many words which i found surprising given things/settlement not wrapped up yet . Actually thought Jay's questions were ones i wanted to know as well and remember thinking if matt could have answered any/all of them, no other cc questions would have even been necessary as they covered the bases Why is GS paying Jay a salary? Anyone who has followed the Afrezza story knows that Sanofi did minimal work in advertising Afrezza and yet Jay, a so called analyst, thinks Sanofi spent a lot to get Afrezza's name out there. It also sounded like Jay was recovering from a hangover and craving a few lines of coke. The guy is a disgrace. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 14, 2016 19:44:41 GMT -5
Hmm, wish they had Dr Urbanski talk about the trial abstracts... I was waiting for Hakan to quickly interupt Matt to give out his personal cell number for anyone interested in partnering with them. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 14, 2016 15:44:48 GMT -5
Hi ! The chat here at the board during CC with a proper beverage has already become an tradition I am looking for. Liane, is this possible again? are you going to film yourself drinking that 1/5 of what ever you are drinking in less than 5 minutes when this CC proves to be a dud? |
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Post by mindovermatter on Mar 14, 2016 10:34:16 GMT -5
How many outstanding shares then? I am thinking it ~1/3 less than the bloat that exists today. |
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