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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 27, 2018 9:24:59 GMT -5
Darn, why so late? I was hoping that he'll hold it this year....i rather end the year with a bang than start off weakish then bang...but that's just me. January 4th can't come soon enough...the shorts are going to enjoy the next week. 😡 Everyone is probably on vacation between Christmas and New Years www.gocomics.com/pricklycity/2018/12/27
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 27, 2018 8:40:32 GMT -5
It has been mention here a couple times us buying RLS , is that a logical consideration at this point , what whould be involved to make it a profitable aquisition . If RLS is going to be the great success some say, I don't see how Mannkind could possibly afford to buy it at this juncture. Unless the people running RLS have come to a realisation that their game plan is not going to work in the current (political, economic, regulatory, etc.) environment, and they try to unload it for cheap. In which case, Mannkind should keep away.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 26, 2018 22:43:45 GMT -5
I thought he didn’t want us to post what he says? Yet people are copying and pasting his comments... IIRC, his problem was with those who cut and pasted his entire articles (and often did not even provide a link) so people did not have to go to SA to read them. Unlike some, I never quote the entire article (or lengthy comment), and I also almost always (I'm human, I might forget once in a rare while) provide a link. I think excerpts are allowed under the doctrine of fair use or something like that. The link for this particular SO article is in my first post in this thread. If a mod disagrees with my postings in this thread, I have no problem if it is locked or deleted.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 26, 2018 21:51:18 GMT -5
In the comments section of his latest article, SO doesn't exactly come out and say BUY but he does argue that the odds are currently looking good for a trade:
"In a nutshell, if you play smart, you can have a risk of 25% to the downside, but 45% to 60% to the upside in the near term."
"Long ago I stated that I would not trade this equity as long as I write about it. I have missed trading opportunity after trading opportunity in this stock, but I am a man of my word. My last big BUY recommendation was when the company dipped below $1 after the reverse split. Those that took advantage are actually still ahead of the game even if they did not take advantage of the trading ranges subsequent. It is tempting to simply stop covering the equity and buy in for a trade, but alas someone will level some cockamamie accusation that I cover this equity the way I do so that I can buy lower. Thus, I will let this opportunity pass as well, but wanted to give readers a heads up on my thinking while the stock is at these levels."
"To be clear, this does not mean that I feel Afrezza will suddenly turn around, nor that I believe the cash situation is 100% solved. It simply means that the current stock price offers a compelling opportunity. This is still a speculative equity."
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 26, 2018 20:47:52 GMT -5
Any unexpected developmental costs in Brazil would be borne by Biomm SA and the financial terms (e.g. upfront payment royalties) are to be determined (and filed with the SEC) after ANVISA approves Afrezza per the collaboration agreement. Frankly, I don't see anything here that would be the catalyst for this latest share offering. I pretty much agree with your conclusion (that Brazil is not the reason for the share offering), but I'm not so sure about your premise. Biomm may be responsible for unexpected development costs, but if such costs were much larger than anticipated couldn't Biomm also just decide to throw in the towel and say forget it? In that case, perhaps Mannkind would find it strategic to offer financial support so that Biomm would bring Afrezza to market in Brazil even if Mannkind was not contractually obligated to provide any financial support? I'm not saying this is likely, but since we are discussing hypothetical cases anyway ...
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 26, 2018 20:26:28 GMT -5
It is hard to believe that a year has already passed, but it is that time of year again. Nominations are open for the APPA Pharmaceutical Industry Awards: joinappa.com/awardsMike can't repeat as CEO of the year unless enough people nominate him in the first place. And only a few days left in which to do it! "The top 3 companies or individuals with the most nominations will make it to the polls for public voting. Nominations will close 12/31/18. Live voting will be open the second week of January 2019 and close March 1, 2019. Winners will be announced online March 4, 2019. Awards will be handed out during our 2019 Annual Convention. (Stay tuned)."
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 26, 2018 9:06:42 GMT -5
Happy Boxing Day! (Google it if you need to.) May all your shopping sales dreams come true.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 25, 2018 19:23:03 GMT -5
Sorry, so you did. I am surprised nobody commented on it, Afrezza is at least twice as expensive as any of the RAAs. And does that matter when you account for the efficacy and the safety benefits it offers? How much is a limb or vastly improved quality of life worth? Of course it matters if you need it and cannot afford it. You may be forced into taking something less effective, but cheaper. In the worst case (and there have been threads / stories in the media about it), you may be forced to skip or ration the small amount of insulin you can afford. E.g., see link: www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/09/01/641615877/insulins-high-cost-leads-to-lethal-rationing
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 25, 2018 9:13:58 GMT -5
Merry Christmas.
I'm on the road to visit ailing family members (with restricted visiting hours, so I'll see them later today).
Currently it is a green Christmas here in Toronto, Canada.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 25, 2018 9:10:56 GMT -5
You are ignoring the fact that if (IF not WHEN) the share price drops below $1 they are required to do a RS within a few months or face delisting. Every time mnkd did a public offering in the past someone posted a message exactly like yours. "Somehow the new investors can see into the future and are smarter than we were when we purchased our stock." I do agree that the dilution was necessary or Mike would not have done it. It really is much closer to a 9 months + before a reverse split is required. IIRC, 30 days below 1.00 and then the company receives a letter from NASDAQ. The company has 6 months to rectify and can appeal once. I agree a RS to avoid delisting is not an urgent matter. As you wrote, it is a long process. Spencer O (earlier today in his latest) makes the point that the real concern is that once it closes under $1 (if it does) it will be out of compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements, and companies "outside compliance find it more difficult to get any financing accomplished" and being outside of compliance "could also be a detraction to potential partners, especially those that might consider a buy-in". Basically, limiting future moves. Of course, if the cash was needed it is what it is.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 24, 2018 11:43:08 GMT -5
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 24, 2018 10:25:36 GMT -5
Very cool. I also noticed that if you click on register there are no seats available....nice to see there is that kind of interest. Given the location listed on the registration site (Shula's Steak House Naples), seating (especially during the dinner hour as in this case) is naturally very limited and depends on the room reserved: "We offer the exclusive Wine Room, the Coach’s Room or the Player’s Area that can seat from 10 to 100 guests." Hopefully it is in one of the larger rooms.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 21, 2018 22:23:51 GMT -5
Has anyone posted the possibility that the $$$ will be used to fund the airing of a new TV commercial and revamped DTC campaign? Perhaps the rush stems from early FDA clearance of a new ad and the start of the NFL post season playoffs in a few weeks?Just curious. Yesterday (or was it even earlier today?) in another thread I mentioned running a Superbowl commercial. I was only half serious, but still.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 21:30:31 GMT -5
There's more to this story than we know since there wasn't a dire need to raise this cash at this time. IMO, they are raising funds for a particular purpose heading into 2019. Am guessing we'll find out what the reason is right around the first of the year. Enhanced advertising. A Superbowl commercial? Last year 30 seconds cost about $5 million. Maybe TWO commercials!
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 21:02:55 GMT -5
Don't read any further if his articles just get you riled up ... seekingalpha.com/article/4229545-mannkind-drops-proposed-share-offering-investors-knowMannKind Drops On Proposed Share Offering - What Investors Should Know MannKind (MNKD) investors are likely not feeling very jolly at the moment. In fact, many feel that a Grinch has swooped in and taken away any holiday cheer. A Christmas rally for MannKind is near impossible now that the company has announced an intent for more dilution. In fact, the possible dilution is 26.66 million shares with the offering, and another possible 26.66 million shares with the associated warrants. I have long assessed the cash situation at MannKind and labeled that situation as one of the major hurdles of this equity. Even with perma-bull MannKind longs calling me every name in the book, I have remained steadfast to what is realistic. Even with a recent cash infusion from a deal with United Therapeutics (UTHR), the company found itself with only getting enough cash to buy itself a quarter or so. With recent price action, the existing 14 million warrant shares which would bring in about $30 million if exercised before mid-April have looked to be more and more of a long shot. With the company essentially admitting that it will miss Afrezza sales guidance by several miles, turning off the ad campaign, and thinning out the number of sales reps on the drug, the news on possible revenue is not looking good. Combine this with news scripts moving in a downward direction in Q4, and there is some writing on the wall regarding the sales situation and the cash the company burns attempting to drive sales. Let's get to what we know. We know the company has only about 55 million shares uncommitted at the moment and thus the maximum amount of shares that this new offering could use is established. Essentially, MannKind is using up every share on the shelf. Incredibly, it was just a year ago that the company sought and received approval for 140 million more shares bringing the total to 280 million. In the last year, the company has managed to use up all 140 million newly minted shares and will have about $68 million in cash as a result ($28 million in cash plus $40 million raised in offering). The rub here is that MannKind lacks the available shares to do anything with this offering that is compelling. See link for the rest: seekingalpha.com/article/4229545-mannkind-drops-proposed-share-offering-investors-know
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