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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 20:57:50 GMT -5
Ticked down to 4.625% today. Despite what some others have claimed, that lack of short interest or borrow rate run up before this offering suggests to me that there was not significant shorting before the deal... Well as much as usual. I'm often fooled by the markets. I feel like I am using strategies from checkers, while the big boys are playing chess. I'm not saying you are wrong, but it does seem to be pretty routine for shorting to occur prior to when a deal like this one is announced. I don't know why this deal would be different, especially given how previous offerings by Mannkind have been done. My true personal opinion is that I think people read far too much into things like the short interest, borrow rate going up or down, technical analyses, etc. Maybe it works for some stocks (I'm sure it does), but I think there is too much manipulation (both sides) with this stock for them to be accurate predictors.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 19:18:27 GMT -5
Today was worse than I anticipated. I figured we'd be hit to about $1.25 to $1.30. Wrong, as usual. Agree - not proportional to the amount of dilution. As usual, the market over reacts. That's assuming market shenanigans (i.e. some market players) were not keeping the share price a little inflated for the past little while, in anticipation of the dilution. Markets were cratering recently, but MNKD was about as steady as a rock. That looked fishy to me.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 14:46:12 GMT -5
Guys this dilution, at this time, could be linked to some kind of problems/delay in Brazil approval process? Causing delay in product order and eventually delay in milestone? I'm more confused by the markets every day, but I think if Mannkind knew something material like this (having to do with approval in Brazil) it would have to disclose it. (Unless expectations for Brazil are so low that the news is immaterial.)
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 14:40:12 GMT -5
This is the case in a normal case. I was wondering if MNKD would have passed this stage by requiring the underwriter to sign an agreement not to short any of the offered stocks. Why is this not a 'normal' case?
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 13:57:54 GMT -5
Morning! Well, I sure am showing a lot of: "This Post is Hidden" on my page today. No surprise whatsoever that these folks are out in force doin all they can to bring the SP under a buck. Well have it. Do your damndest! I've faced much worse in life than a stock holding, and when the this storm is over, I'll still be standing here! Cheers. So if A blocks B, then A sees a Post Hidden note? Reminds me of White Christmas (a Black Mirror episode), in which people can block one another and see faceless blurs where people are. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Christmas_(Black_Mirror)
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 13:22:00 GMT -5
The following is a response from MNKD management that I got today. Not sure I got what I want to hear but I guess this is the best they can do. I do understand they have to take some actions right now to secure the necessary fund for next year giving the market conditions. Dear Mr. xxx, To effectively promote Afrezza and to invest in our pipeline, ultimately resulting in collaborations such as United Therapeutics, we need capital resources which we all agree should have come from Afrezza sales or prior deals. As you may be familiar with, over the years, we’ve done equity offerings, some of which came easy when Mr. Mann was still with us and some of which came during what others perceived as desperation. So for our CEO and CFO, there is a thoughtful process to timing. They are also painfully thoughtful of dilutive financings. They have exhaustively looked at non-dilutive alternatives resulting in terms that we wouldn’t necessarily want to be held hostage to, especially in the ensuing year(s) when we expect success in both Afrezza and our pipeline technology. Ancillary to the ultimate goal of raising capital, but important for the long-term, are increasing our institutional ownership (our CEO and CFO have been on non-stop targeted non-deal roadshows with institutionals leading up to this offering), and elevating our banking relationships to get effective analyst coverage. There are a lot of considerations and at the right time, we will provide transparency. Announcements and the disclosure process are strictly regulated by securities laws which legal counsel dictates to the Company. --------------------------------------- Rose Alinaya SVP Investor Relations & Treasury I have no doubt that the 'Cult of Mike' will survive this. Cognitive dissonance theory suggests it will bounce back even stronger than ever before. My statement above in no way blames Mike. I think he's doing about as good a job as he can. But I do think many people have long over-stated his (and other Mannkind executives) abilities and the opportunities he has (they have) to get things done.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 12:56:54 GMT -5
Trader Dennis, mnkndfann, Matt, Tomtab, etl. it's your day fellas enjoy it. How is my day? I was hoping to sell my very few remaining shares at $2. I no longer see $2 in the near future.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 9:04:17 GMT -5
If anyone is up to date with the math (please, no guesses), can you tell us how many shares will remain available to be issued after this dilution?
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2018 8:14:21 GMT -5
From ST:
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2018 23:27:17 GMT -5
What if this is a buy-in? _________ shares @ $______ per share in private placement to a single company? Technosphere is real and gaining credibility with the medical community. It's unlikely that United Therapeutics is the only pharmaceutical company that's been paying attention. To me, the problem with your statement is the "what if"? They must have known the impact this would have on the stock price. Why didn't they offer up some explanation with it? I don't see that the SEC filing offers much -- www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899460/000119312518353255/d654787d424b5.htmOne thing I did find curious was it says "Our authorized capital stock consists of 550,000,000 shares of common stock." I thought they had only like 280,000,000 shares authorized. Aged wrote: "The summary prospectus doesn't have any numbers and looks largely like a boilerplate ..." With numbers missing, it is clear it needs to still be edited and corrected. Corrections may include the possibly incorrect number you mentioned. I don't understand how / why something incomplete like this gets filed in the first place.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2018 23:19:12 GMT -5
Sweet! It's not all doom and gloom. www.thecoinguild.com/investors-keen-on-mannkind-corporation-nasdaqmnkd-as-it-makes-headlines-with-moves/317662/Investors Keen on MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) as it Makes Headlines With Moves MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) has been in the news after the price of the stock hit $1.7 at the conclusion of the most recent close. The stock is traded on NSDQ in the Medical sector and Medical – Biomedical and Genetics industry. Outstanding shares are common stock authorized by a company that are issued, purchased, and held by investors. Outstanding shares include restricted shares owned by the company’s employees and officers as well as the public. “Capital Stock” is the number of outstanding shares listed on a company’s balance sheet and is reported with the company’s quarterly filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD)’s shares outstanding are 159.6. Average Volume is the amount of securities traded in a day on average over a specific time period. Trading activity relates to the liquidity of a security. When average volume is high, the stock has high liquidity and can be therefore easily traded, while conversely, when the trading volume is low, the commodity will be less expensive as traders are not as willing to purchase it. Average volume has an effect on the price of the security. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) has experienced an average volume of 1293745.63. Market capitalization is the total dollar market value of a company’s shares. It is calculated by multiplying a company’s shares outstanding by the current market price of one share. Investors use this figure to figure out a company’s size, as opposed to just using total asset or sales figures. Market capitalization is important because company size is a basic indicator of multiple characteristics in which investors are interested in, including risk. It is easy to calculate. For example, a company with 40 million shares selling at $100 a share would have a market cap of $4 billion. Companies are ranked according to their market caps, ranking them as large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap. Large-cap companies usually have a market capitalization of $10 billion and up. These large-cap companies have typically been around for a long period of time, and they are usually major players in well-established industries. Mid-cap companies have a market capitalization of $2 billion – $10 billion. Mid-cap companies operate in industries expected to experience rapid growth. Companies that have a market capitalization $300 million – $2 billion are classified as small-cap companies. These companies are usually young in age and they could serve new industries as well as niche markets. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD)’s market cap is $271.32. Any given stock may have anywhere between 1 to 40 brokerage analysts making EPS estimates as they follow the company. Zacks have been tracking these sell-side analyst estimates for more than 25 years, creating consensus EPS estimates. These estimates are the average of all of the current estimates that are made available by brokerage analysts. Consensus estimates are better because they reduce the risk of any single analyst making an incorrect forecast. In the case of MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD), Zacks tracked 1 brokers to create the consensus EPS estimate. Zacks calculates consensus estimates for the current quarter, the following quarter, the current fiscal year, the following fiscal year, and also a long-term growth rate. A company can “Meet” the same earnings as forecast, “Beat” the earnings than forecast, or “Miss” (fall below) the earnings than forecast. Missing a forecast, of course, is the worst outcome, as it indicates that the company is not performing as well as investors thought. A “Miss” often causes the share price to fall. Zacks tracked 2 analysts to create quarterly consensus estimate of -0.17 for MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD). Zacks tracked 1 analysts to create a consensus of -0.18 for the last completed fiscal quarter for MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD). Zacks provides an Average of Brokerage Recommendations (ABR) on a given stock. The ABR is a quick snapshot of where Wall Street stands on a stock without having to sift through countless research reports. All brokerage research reports carry recommendations of some form. The various firms use different terms for their rating systems, i.e. using “Outperform instead of “Buy”, but Zacks properly sorts them into their 5-level classification system. Each of the 5 classifications has a value associated with it that helps compute ABR. The lower the ABR, the more favorable Wall Street views the company. Zacks finds only modest value in knowing the current ABR for a stock. Knowing the direction that the ABR is moving is considered to be far more valuable. Stocks with improving ABRs will outperform the market and those with eroding ABRs will underperform. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD)’s ABR in it’s industry is ranked 13 and a number of 1. Within the investment industry, Zacks Investment Research is considered to be one of the most highly regarded firms. Zacks says that the guiding principle behind their business is that there is a reason why brokerage firms to spend billions of dollars a year on stock research. These investment experts must know something special that’s indicative of the direction of future stock prices. Zacks goal is to unlock that secret knowledge and make it available to their clients to help them improve their results. In 1978, Len Zacks, founder of the company, discovered that earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices. From that starting point he developed a quantitative model which harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, such as the degree of change, the surprises, and the direction to create the Zacks Rank. The Zacks innovative and unique rating system predicts the potential for future stock price increases. The system also clearly states when to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Len Zacks, a mathematician, created a system that is completely objective and mathematical, removing all emotion from the equation. The rank only cares whether the math predicts that the price will rise. In the ensuing years, Zacks Investment Research has become one of the most respected firms on Wall Street. Today, Wall Street uses Zacks Rank along with Zacks Equity Research, a method that combines the best of qualitative and quantitative analysis.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2018 23:14:47 GMT -5
The timing of this offering is a little strange. But it's Mannkind so what's new. The technosphere is blossoming and is paying off. They will receive the 45 million that gives them money through the next quarter. They would have to stay above the Deerfield covenant somewhere late in the quarter. That maybe an issue. Issue shares with no positive catalyst? Especially when you hold all the cards and know the best of timing. Mike shutting down his twitter feed. Proclaiming only weeks (maybe a month or two) ago that there will be no more dilution necessary? Fishy...Weird...But what's new Expect class action lawsuits to be filed (or at least announced and advertised) by the Wall Street ambulance chasing lawyers tomorrow. They always seem to come out of the woodwork when shares take sudden hits like this one did, especially if there is anything 'fishy' they can point to.
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Zacks
Dec 19, 2018 22:00:30 GMT -5
Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2018 22:00:30 GMT -5
Fingers crossed.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2018 21:04:06 GMT -5
Is it even remotely possible that big news (Brazil approval, filings in Canada and Mexico) is coming, that will send the shares up big time, and this filing is in advance of that? To be prepared to strike on a day or two when the iron is hot? Do companies ever do that? Normally the company would issue shares when the stock price is up. Note the manipulated $6.00/share price scenario a few years back. I agree, but I didn't think the shares were issued yet. I thought we just had the notice tonight that they were going to be issued soon. I was imagining maybe that could happen following (hypothetical) good news.
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 19, 2018 20:37:58 GMT -5
MNKD price popped out of a wedge, that targets $1.84
With hindsight, was there anything technical in that chart that hinted at the price being propped up in advance of the shelf offering this evening? It is a serious question.
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