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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2019 15:53:50 GMT -5
Keep your eye on the prize....another exit door closed yesterday ( anticipated, widely advertised nearer term dilution, those are now having to reinvent their spreadsheets), the only hedge remaining are options against the short position and those who have to take the other side of that are banking on them expiring worthless...when that gets threatened like what was seen two October's ago is when the fireworks take place just like it did then before they got bailed out by the pipeline funding...the next time the liklihood of that (dilution) bailing them out is reduced especially with the prepayment penalty of the debt financing in place. Position squaring will/should be evident at the close of each day you see "manufactured" sales...chances are you will see it (squaring) in the last 30 minutes and after hours. case in point: Spreadsheets and models are good if the goal posts can't be moved...I know SO always adds a disclaimer that a swan event can happen but he did not foresee or count the UTHR deal into the spreadsheets because he couldn't forecast those numbers before the deal was announced...same here with the debt financing, it moves the goal posts and in turn he has to adjust/add/redo his calculations. I chuckled when I saw the debt financing because one of the first visions I had were those having to scramble and rethink their numbers and time frames. Today alone probably added a million plus to the SI so it's laughable to think that minimal dilution from the debt financing and associated warrants will have much of an effect if at all as it continues to get absorbed pretty easily with the "borrowed time" shares getting sold....risk/reward, $1.07 upside or unlimited downside...with the runway continuing to get extended the risk/reward ratio just got a bit more ridiculous (for the $1.07 upside), this will probably get re-iterated by Nate here shortly if it hasn't already.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2019 11:12:52 GMT -5
Keep your eye on the prize....another exit door closed yesterday (anticipated, widely advertised nearer term dilution, those are now having to reinvent their spreadsheets), the only hedge remaining are options against the short position and those who have to take the other side of that are banking on them expiring worthless...when that gets threatened like what was seen two October's ago is when the fireworks take place just like it did then before they got bailed out by the pipeline funding...the next time the liklihood of that (dilution) bailing them out is reduced especially with the prepayment penalty of the debt financing in place. Position squaring will/should be evident at the close of each day you see "manufactured" sales...chances are you will see it (squaring) in the last 30 minutes and after hours.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 8, 2019 9:16:07 GMT -5
After hearing the good earnings call yesterday, I thought this stock is "not a sinking boat ..... and not a rocket ship". What should the shorts do now to make money off this very undervalued stock? 911k shares traded in first 28 min of trading.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2019 18:02:13 GMT -5
Yes, not bad. Who knows, we may have experienced the final bottoming out in share price and will build from here if each new quarter adds to the belief that Mike is correct that current recap takes us to break even. I've added some to my position for first time in a very long while... though still consider it speculative.Interesting comments on Kaiser. I'm in the heart of Kaiser country and have info sources I ply for Afrezza news. I like that MNKD has someone dedicated. Will be very excited, and likely be more liberal with share purchase if I catch wind of attitudes changing there. It seems Kaiser never felt the cost/benefit ratio of RAAs were good enough. Would be quite a statement if they basically jump over RAAs and go from Humulin as SOC to Afrezza. I also bought more shares after hours just several minutes after the call began because I was so impressed by the many good developments. Maybe the best news of all is that MNKD can now easily skate right past the coming December expiration of the warrants. For the first time in years I think the warrants will now be a POSITIVE factor. MNKD does not HAVE TO see those warrants exercised. It can get way past those warrants. For once the looming warrants will not be the Sword of Damocles hanging threateningly over MNKD's head. In fact, the December warrants may well now prove to be a bargain purchase price in the next several months. Sure seems like we should today be at a floor for the stock price. Having said that I fully expect the Wall Street manipulators to depress the stock price tomorrow to fool and frighten us retail long investors. If the crooks send the price down hard tomorrow I intend to "double" and "triple" up by buying more shares tomorrow. I really feel this is an inflection point. This call is the best thing to happen financially since Matt P. negotiated that life saving 170 million or so settlement from Sanofi. MNKD looks to me to be assured of survival with the chance to finally flourish for the first time in years! Now is the time for all good men (and women) to come to the aid of their country (Company). If the dark forces crash the price tomorrow, consider adding to your position.I would say the odds favor a gap up as opposed to any "crash" but agree with the last portion of that, I rolled the dice a smidge early just before the call. There are going to be a lot of revised "forecasts" going forward with the restructuring of debt/operating cash flow IMO. I'd say the company gained a few more "leverage" points back
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2019 15:57:03 GMT -5
I just took out the 1.14 ask, couldn't resist, debt financing even at high single digits beats large dilution IMO...I'm staunch long!! 😉👍🏻
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 4, 2019 11:22:25 GMT -5
Would you want individuals that are easily swayed by anonymous posters as "investors" to begin with? Or do you prefer "strong hands" which in turn drives up the short interest "meter" with their ongoing hope of an anticipated large dilution? I would prefer a shorter leash on certain members. Ahh, I see, but that's what separates this forum from an SA, it's not selectively edited. However, if one routinely disrespects the rules here, they will disappear. I respect how you feel but I still believe this is one of the most well moderated forums available IMO.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 4, 2019 11:09:26 GMT -5
Let me be blunt. Could some members of this forum be causing harm? Specifically, hypothetically if some new investor is looking for info and they stumble to this forum looking for details. But, sadly they are meet with only people who jest about living in a tent or participants who r diabetic but have no INTEREST in seeing Afrezza being successful. Aged, mytake and others, criticize away. Would you want individuals that are easily swayed by anonymous posters as "investors" to begin with? Or do you prefer "strong hands" which in turn drives up the short interest "meter" with their ongoing hope of an anticipated large dilution?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 31, 2019 10:48:02 GMT -5
The pediatric angle could and should be amazing, but getting endos on their side will be doubly hard when children are involved. Management better have a plan to address this otherwise even if pediatric approval eventually comes, they are going to run into the exact same hurdles that they have yet to overcome as they are now. Respectfully disagree on both the bolded parts of your statement. If the FDA expands the label to include children ages 4 and older it will be a huge endorsement of safety to the endo's, pediatricians, and others in the medical arena. If the option is there for inhalable and all that comes with it from the Safety and Pharmacokinetics Study in Pediatric Patients, i would say that will continue to work on overcoming some of those "hurdles".
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 25, 2019 15:05:28 GMT -5
This becomes common sense to T2's/endo's as they continue to use the product, I wouldn't say this is some proprietary protocol lol All due respect, this "method" is nothing new. Sanofi had a meeting with early adapters way back when and they told management about their success with follow-up doses. We have done studies to prove this protocol is preferred already. And, the India protocols are being set up that way, which should prove Al to be right about Afrezza once and for all. I'm getting the creepy feeling that Vdex is trying to lay the groundwork for a lawsuit saying that Mannkind is using THEIR method or something. Could just be my liability claims background. Just has my hairs up, is all. Now, with respect to the whole shareholder "movement," I'm going to stay out of it because I don't see what we could lose, unless having shareholder activists on a stock could somehow turn off a potential partner. If so, is that intentional? Time will tell. Otherwise, you guys go do whatever you feel is necessary. For the most part, ANY publicity is good publicity, except for the situation I wrote about above, of course. GLTY I suspect this fiasco will dissipate sooner than later, and the last thing you need to be paranoid about is any "proprietary dosing protocol", hysterical!! The whole thing has been pretty entertaining up to and including the "verification" conversation with SO. There are a lot of folks with waaaay too much precious time spent wasted IMO, except Harry, those testimonials are worth "a thousand words", stay the course, enjoy the rest of your summer, know you've been on the ride about as long as I have
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 25, 2019 13:03:40 GMT -5
I wonder how BMs suggesting that he is going to give away his protocol sits with the existing, independent VDEX clinic owners. Doing so seemingly would knock down one of the few barriers to entry that exist. Some have argued that the protocol is not much more than follow up dosing, but I suspect it’s more than that. All the same, if I was operating a clinic and someone told me the special recipe was about to be published in the public domain, I might have something to say about it. I believe we have already seen the special recipe/protocol. dosing: www.seventhform.com/vdexdownloads/vdex-whitepaper-072817.pdf page 22. Comments Afrezza’s speed of action is both a blessing and a curse. Clearly, it is a large factor in the safety of the product, but for longer meals, you may need more Afrezza to keep the post prandial levels in check. We recommend follow-on doses. For example, we advise with a standard meal to dose Afrezza 15-20 minutes after the start of the meal, and then another dose of the same size about 45 minutes later. With very long meals, we have even advised patients to administer two follow-on doses, for very tight control. White Paper Treating Diabetes with Vdex’ AFAL Protocols September 26, 2018 static1.squarespace.com/static/5a37ff648fd4d234be3cea06/t/5c2ea96170a6ad1b09ad6f9a/1546561892258/vdex-whitepaper2-092618.pdfThis becomes common sense to T2's/endo's as they continue to use the product, I wouldn't say this is some proprietary protocol lol
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2019 14:45:51 GMT -5
Dennis regarding what you stated in bold above, to borrow a phrase from Dick Enberg (as opposed to your friend over on SA) Oh My!! Dennis, you really surprised me with this post so I'm going to give you one complimentary lesson see below as I highlighted some things for you: A couple of things, first off bull and bear flags are used on price charts more so than on any momentum indicator charts. The relative strength chart on the bottom his rising lows as seen with the circles...so not sure what you were looking at but they certainly are not lower lows as you stated. The declining volume is indicative/confirming the fact that as this equity has languished at the lows it is on weaker strength as time has passed, see timeline at bottom with the corresponding rising lows...thus the washout and increased measure of short sales with minimal effect. Nevertheless, keep thinking we're in a bear flag if you will but this chart does not reflect any bear flag IMO, rather a long basing pattern that looks like it is getting ready for a break to the upside, again IMO. To each their own as they say but just wanted to point out how I see it, FWIW What app is this? Interactive Brokers Mobile App on a Samsung Note, excuse the freehand lines and circles lol....you could say it's back of the napkin phone screen charting
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2019 14:33:47 GMT -5
That continues to play out with the rising lows in relative strength as this washes out, I fully expect this to eventually result in a nice break to the upside. Lowers lows, and lower highs. Looks like a bear flag/pennant to me.Dennis regarding what you stated in bold above, to borrow a phrase from Dick Enberg (as opposed to your friend over on SA) Oh My!! Dennis, you really surprised me with this post so I'm going to give you one complimentary lesson see below as I highlighted some things for you: A couple of things, first off bull and bear flags are used on price charts more so than on any momentum indicator charts. The relative strength chart on the bottom has rising lows as seen with the circles...so not sure what you were looking at but they certainly are not lower lows as you stated. The declining volume is indicative/confirming the fact that as this equity has languished at the lows it is on weaker strength as time has passed, see timeline at bottom with the corresponding rising lows...thus the washout and increased measure of short sales with minimal effect. Nevertheless, keep thinking we're in a bear flag if you will but this chart does not reflect any bear flag IMO, rather a long basing pattern that looks like it is getting ready for a break to the upside, again IMO. To each their own as they say but just wanted to point out how I see it, FWIW
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2019 12:21:28 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 19, 2019 18:49:32 GMT -5
My recommendation is that MNKD partner with one or more CGM vendors to arrange a new-T2-Afrezza patient 3-month CGM lease program so T2's can see the real-time behavior of Afrezza and learn how to maximize its effectiveness. After 3-months the CGM partnership could allow the users to purchase their CGM at a discounted price, or return it in favor of using less-expensive blood glucose monitoring technologies. MNKD could reduce the end-users costs by discounting Afrezza for new T2 patients for some period of time; at least 3 months, perhaps a year. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11376/why-afrezza-retention-low#ixzz5uABtVcqY IF NOT THAT EXACT SENARIO... some form of alliances with CGM companies should be in order .. the technology is just too perfect .. the synergies are a dream .. Insurance companies don't even like covering CGMs for T1s. Good luck with trying to convince them to pay for T2 CGMs. The insurance companies have no issues whatsoever covering the 14 day Libre, that is all that is needed for the T2's to monitor their BG throughout the day/night in a very efficient manner.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 30, 2019 12:24:15 GMT -5
Apparently most people on this board dont agree with Ben Graham. I am invested in shares of Mannkind and speculate on its share price with calls puts and leaps. The OP omitted a few other things about Graham and when he originally stated his thoughts were 70 yrs ago, the market was a totally different playing field back then regarding trading systems, dark pools, bots. However, his main thesis align with a lot of holders of this equity in general: The Intelligent Investor (1949). His investment philosophy stressed investor psychology, minimal debt, buy-and-hold investing, fundamental analysis, concentrated diversification, buying within the margin of safety, activist investing, and contrarian mindsets.
So the argument can be made that he would have some of the same thesis as a lot of buy and hold investors with this equity have had as well. All of us can pull excerpts to make a point. More importantly, does it matter if it's speculation or investment if one is ok with holding either in their portfolio? I know one young individual that "speculated" in crypto in its early stages and is now funding all kinds of successful ventures and businesses, so not really sure of what the OP's point of the thread is.
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