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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2015 17:37:59 GMT -5
Joeypotsandpan, I just registered so you'll have to forgive me if I'm not using the proper format... I'm honored that you're the first to respond to my first post here. You're one of the main reasons that I've been returning to this board over the past few months, along with the magical Harry and the suave and debonaire Spiro. Appreciate the kind words Greg, and it is very humbling to put me in the same sentence as the Honorable Harry & Suave Spiro  glad that together and I'm sure along with many others we have played some small role in keeping your interest over these past few months. Welcome and please continue to contribute as you see fit as all views are welcome on a civil basis that are put forth with good intentions. Enjoy your evening! -J |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2015 11:58:15 GMT -5
Traderdennis, You're taking one data point and reaching all sorts of conclusions that aren't necessarily supported. Theoretically, all three million shares covered could have been bought back on the same day, leading to the stock price staying flat, rising, or even falling a little, depending on so many other variables. Then, in the subsequent days, a very weak stock market, including the biotech sector, could've have contributed to MNKD price dropping 10%. This could be due to margin calls, retail investors retrenching by selling shares, or withholding bids. It also could be due to an institution, or two, or three, or four, etc, selling some shares. All sorts of things could've happened, resulting in both the short interest shrinking and the price falling. Obviously, one of those possibilities is that one institution knows something and is liquidating, but that's just one possibility of so many possibilities. Bottom line, that one data point tells us absolutely nothing. If you ask AF he'd probably tell you it was MNKD using their ATM and selling into the market to raise half of the $100m...he's already questioned if that would violate Matt's promise of no more dilution since it was set up prior to his statement. If they did it would have amounted to about 8 mill shares and gotten them half way home to paying them off...just sayin |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 28, 2015 6:37:38 GMT -5
While one thing is not dependent on the other in this particular case, it does show when they like who their in bed with they seem to want to further the relationship. I have never been in the camp of the definitive "buy in" or "buy out" reason for being invested in MNKD BUT I have always been in the camp that they (AL) chose the best possible partner. With today's announcement by SNY regarding their furthering their relationship with REGN...it does show me they act when they see good things with their partners Sanofi, Regeneron Enter Major New Immuno-Oncology Collaboration 2:07 am ET July 28, 2015 (Dow Jones) Print By Noemie Bisserbe PARIS--French drug maker Sanofi SA (SAN.FR) said Tuesday it had entered into a new research agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. and agreed to invest $2.17 billion to jointly develop new cancer treatments. Sanofi will make an upfront payment to Regeneron of $640 million. Sanofi and Regeneron will invest $750 million and $250 million respectively, to develop new monotherapy and novel combinations of immuno-oncology antibody experimental drugs. Each company will also invest an additional $325 million to develop REGN2810, a so-called PD-1 inhibitor--a drug that blocks a protein called programmed death receptor 1, or PD-1, which acts as a brake on certain immune-system cells to prevent them from attacking healthy tissue. In the event that sales of a PD-1 product, or any other drug sold for use in combination with a PD-1 product, exceed $2 billion in any consecutive 12-month period, Sanofi will pay to Regeneron a one-time milestone of $375 million. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 27, 2015 19:11:47 GMT -5
Since this could quickly get bogged down in "Feature Creep", let's start with a modest goal: Get that write-up onto a new web site. The document already has those nice bullets up at the top, which are trivial to turn into links to the various sections. What I'd suggest is that we decide upon the domain name (perhaps everyone chime in with their 4 favorites, and then we can do a poll? Or I can just go with afrezzajustbreathe). I forgot that the cost isn't just the domain registration (which I'm glad to pick up), but also there's also a monthly hosting fee. One web host I've worked with for many years has a $6/month plan, and I'd be happy to sign up for it on my credit card...but I'd appreciate passing the hat around to cover the hosting fees after the first month. We're talking $72/year for the site, which will cover up to 2G/month of data transfer (they say ~20K visitors, but it could conceivably be less if the page is graphics-intensive.) 5GB/month is $9, and 10GB/mo is $14. By taking care of the domain registration and hosting plan stuff myself, I know we can get this up and running really fast. Anyone (who hasn't spent all their extra money on MNKD shares) that would be willing to donate something to the cause, please PM me, and we can discuss that privately. So all I really need to get going is a decision on the domain name. I still like AfrezzaFreesYou.com |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 27, 2015 14:26:21 GMT -5
The answer I keep coming up with is that I believe in the science and I believe in Al Mann. I know there are many factors that can work to keep a genuinely outstanding product from succeeding. However, I do believe that with the work of the early adopters and the trail they are slowly but surely carving out of the heretofore unexplored mountain we are climbing, that we will get to the top and plant the flag of Afrezza. We may slip back down some as we lose our footing from time to time on the way up (like we are now experiencing), but make no mistake we will get there. And the reason I know this is because the one thing I am certain of is that the results being achieved by the early adopters are real!!! It may take longer than we would like but I do believe Afrezza will succeed and that is why I am still an investor in Mnkd... The conversation of this Board helps me to be patient... GLTAL's!(My apologies in advance if I sound like I am preaching. Really just venting about my own frustrations and trying to acknowledge the Board, especially Liane and BD for helping/maintaining to shape it's core values) * I am generally ok with FUD being published and/or posted, although I think it should be called out as such. I like to read it and I see it as a challenge for me, to find the flaws in the arguments. By reviewing the FUD statements and having answers for why each is a piece of FUD I am able to make sure I am not missing something in my optimism about why Afrezza will ultimately be successful. IMO Sam was the biggest single "X" factor the shorts were and still are not prepared to deal with. He single handedly has left them holding a bag that they have yet to be able to vacate. It (our convictions from an investment standpoint and theirs the early adopters from a truly new found freedom) only continues to grow and strengthen as more of the early adopters get on board to get away from the insulin on board issues etc. and improve their lives before our very eyes. Al, MNKD, SNY could pound the tables until their blue in the face but without the one single trial user to come forward pre Adcom and then testify, well that was not on the shorts radar as far as the effect it had on both the approval process and the continuing real life validation of what everyone long on here has believed in from the start. Nice post Mannmade |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 27, 2015 11:27:49 GMT -5
Again what sticks out is the days to cover due to the drop in avg. daily volume we've seen....they're still stuck and spinning the wheel but really getting nowhere IMO. 7/15/2015 112,846,501 4,415,939 25.554361 6/30/2015 115,084,784 5,340,302 21.550239 6/15/2015 120,425,827 14,899,766 8.082397 Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz3gqGJBTcLTo me this is very bad news. Price goes from 5.90 (6/30 settlement) to 5.38(7/10 settles on 7/15) and they covered 3MM shares while the price goes down 10%. This tells me that an institution(s) sold part of their position during the last reporting period. Huh? Theoretically, if I owe 112 mill shares at $4 and I now still owe 112 mill shares at $5 is that not down $112mill on my ledger? Are there some new accounting measures I should know about? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 26, 2015 17:28:15 GMT -5
joey, I'm really baffled. I don't see any posts by you that were deleted for referencing anything such as medical error. Only a handful that were caught in the crossfire of other transgressions. It was the one referencing the one that I just reminded you of in the PM |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 26, 2015 14:37:35 GMT -5
Ok Harry, you're slipping....you missed this one and it really hits home regarding providers and their perception of patient compliance with regard to starting insulin treatment: www.ajmc.com/journals/issue/2015/2015-vol21-n6/provider-behavior-and-treatment-intensification-in-diabetes-careThe last line in this excerpt paragraph from posted article link goes back to something I mentioned previously that ruffled some of the medical professional feathers on here and was stricken from the record, it was meant with good intentions but was too sensitive a subject I guess so I won't mention "that word" again but you'll get the gist of it from this....for the Dr's on board please don't take this personally or the wrong way again (it certainly isn't directed at our illustrious board members ) A seminal report by Phillips13 led to numerous studies focusing on the role of “clinical inertia” in healthcare delivery, including diabetes care. As conceptualized by Phillips et al, clinical inertia is the “failure of healthcare providers to initiate or intensify treatment when indicated.” This failure is postulated to be fueled by a combination of provider, patient, and organizational factors.14 The Phillips paper was a driving force behind the publication of a large body of literature whose findings suggested that the gap between what is recommended in diabetes care and what is actually acted upon during a clinical encounter reflects widespread deficiencies in quality of care. This line of thinking equates lack of action with lack of quality. It goes on to argue that these apparent deficiencies result in a considerable amount of potentially avoidable morbidity and mortality in an ever-increasing diabetic population, and that aggressive action is needed to encourage physicians to engage in prescribing behaviors that are more effective in helping patients achieve standard clinical targets. One report even likens failure to intensify treatment to a medical error.15 - See more at: www.ajmc.com/journals/issue/2015/2015-vol21-n6/provider-behavior-and-treatment-intensification-in-diabetes-care/P-3#sthash.QuVEiHtb.dpuf |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2015 17:31:55 GMT -5
Again what sticks out is the days to cover due to the drop in avg. daily volume we've seen....they're still stuck and spinning the wheel but really getting nowhere IMO. 7/15/2015 112,846,501 4,415,939 25.554361 6/30/2015 115,084,784 5,340,302 21.550239 6/15/2015 120,425,827 14,899,766 8.082397 Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz3gqGJBTcLActually, taking a closer look over the 2 month reporting period they are back to square one with the exception that the s/p is actually up 25% with their SI having not really moved over that same period . So in reality, they are going somewhere....backwards Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover 7/15/2015 112,846,501 4,415,939 25.554361 s/p at close = 4.986/30/2015 115,084,784 5,340,302 21.550239 6/15/2015 120,425,827 14,899,766 8.082397 5/29/2015 131,158,892 10,605,477 12.367090 5/15/2015 112,949,758 7,816,490 14.450189 s/p at close = 3.99Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz3gqgwaWah |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2015 15:18:52 GMT -5
Again what sticks out is the days to cover due to the drop in avg. daily volume we've seen....they're still stuck and spinning the wheel but really getting nowhere IMO. 7/15/2015 112,846,501 4,415,939 25.554361 6/30/2015 115,084,784 5,340,302 21.550239 6/15/2015 120,425,827 14,899,766 8.082397 Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz3gqGJBTcL |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2015 15:13:29 GMT -5
I'm not sure which was more sour today, the broader markets or this board. However, I always put my $$$ where my mouth is and did the following today: Filled Buy to Open 40 SNY Sep 18 2015 55.0 Call Limit 1.25 -- -- 14:44:58 07/24/15 Filled Buy to Open 25 MNKD Jan 20 2017 3.0 Call Limit 2.43 -- -- 13:48:24 07/24/15 The overall market may help these get a bit lower next week, but the way SNY has been trading and given the sell down on weekly scripts I really wanted to add here. Like I said they may get cheaper but with the call next week from SNY and then the following call in two weeks or so from the mother ship thought today was a decent time. S&P closed a window today that was left on 7/10-13 so we'll see how next week goes for the broader markets but I like our two which are joined at the hip |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2015 11:39:12 GMT -5
Joey, not only a great movie, but a key movie (like a key race in thoroughbreds) where so many great careers were launched! Speaking of great movies, had a couple of glasses of wine last night and watched The Ghost and Mrs. Muir for the first time. One can certainly understand why Rex Harrison got the lead in My Fair Lady after seeing his performance as the Ghost! And Gene Tierney, as always, wow! Sorry for the OT, but I don't want to think about the "T" stuff that much today, which appears to be a tough one. Hope GWB is right about a redoubling (refocusing) of efforts on the part of SNY to get those Rx's where they ought to be. Not at all concerned about SNY...actually they are bumping up against weekly highs in s/p in case no one has noticed, looking at the Sep 55's...price is truth when it comes to them as they are not in a "battleground" so to speak. With the broader market down the last few days, their strength is very telling and could be foreboding for next week...we shall see. Lol, The Ghost and Mrs. Muir..that's pulling one out and blowing some dust off. Btw, if you're short shorts doesn't that mean you're long Kball thanks for the correction, thought that person was the father from the father and son combo, nevertheless more importantly the report from them regarding their visit is the crux of my point. -J |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 24, 2015 10:48:18 GMT -5
"I believe they will unwind this trade shortly & exit via options." ripano, we've been hearing at least the first part of your statement for years. I have long since lost hope on "shortly," I now only hope for "eventually!" It's friday so thought I would add a little humor to your post Babs  www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcvjXAtzaMUfyi reminder: updated SI after the close today, btw love the post from im_typeone and his eye opening experience...imo nothing speaks louder than that! Who likes short shorts...enjoy your summer weekend all |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 23, 2015 11:07:10 GMT -5
As opposed to AF, looks like he's a fan of Al's as he also lists EYES in the sweet 16, I think the one that surprised me the most was MHR, it was one a fund manager had mentioned to me over a year ago and with the decline in oil has been hammered...last time I looked they had a lot of leveraged debt so may have to revisit here while they are in the low 1's...he likes them as a play on natural gas. Any lift in the energy sector and they could have a decent return...his portfolio looks quite a bit contrarian as he lists the gold stock as well...I kinda like it, again why not when you consider 2 of the 16 are company's that Al owns |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 23, 2015 9:34:44 GMT -5
Who's better than George, whether you agree with him or not (and I'm confident most on here do) he single handedly gives SA an ounce of credibility as he eloquently dismisses the bear arguments, scolds those who do not tactfully address the few diabetics who have had issues w/Afrezza (whether or not you believe their sincerity or motives) and then lays out a conservative valuation range outlook based on a similar previous Sanofi launch of a game changing Diabetes drug/insulin. We need some G Rho bobbleheads at the Vegas gathering next year!! I know what you're thinkin Petey...spoken like a true square...but in essence, George points out who the true squares really are IMO |
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glad that together and I'm sure along with many others we have played some small role in keeping your interest over these past few months. Welcome and please continue to contribute as you see fit as all views are welcome on a civil basis that are put forth with good intentions. Enjoy your evening! -J 
