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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 5, 2018 20:14:46 GMT -5
From the comments section in the last piece from SO seekingalpha.com/article/4178982-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-stable-enter-final-month-q2 Our old friend Davinci responds to the following question from a commenter: Why would MNKD guide to such lofty numbers, knowing the stock and company will get pummeled in the process. What will be the short term scenario when they announce being short of guidance. ? In his response he (Davinci) basically says that they put the guidance out to essentially dupe investors to buy shares based on the projected guidance and says it keeps their salaries, bonuses, and here's the one I really love ability to add to their resume's , oh yeah, the CEO, CCO, and our illustrious CMO jumped "sinking ships" like AMGN, ALPMY, & LLY to join MNKD just to play charades with people's money to guarantee the aforementioned salaries, bonuses, and add the great MNKD to their resume's....unless of course the last is actually true Wow that Davinci is pure genius, it continues.... Then SO's follows with a response to same question stating that MNKD is between a rock and a hard place in he which alludes to helping drive the share price up in this "short term window of opportunity" heading into the ADA, but then continues with the following ending line.... The STAT study and the hypoglycemia poster presentation at ADA. That could be enough to get another offering completed. That being said, both of these things have their flaws. He believes the studies have their flaws, yes you read this correctly the "hobby writer" is saying he knows more than the good Dr. Kendall himself...you can't make this stuff up. It really makes one wonder if those "bearish" ones that comment to his articles are really as idiotic as they appear or are assuming the general investing public are that naive and gullible to buy into those thesis. Actually you have to wonder about the initial "soft ball pitched" question to begin with. kastanes, I know you continue to read and respect those you talk about "helping you see the light of how wall street works" but seriously how do you negotiate comments like that which make no sense at all considering what they are trying to portray?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 5, 2018 11:28:52 GMT -5
This was voted on at the ASM, Mike also mentioned the interest from the employees and stated that the percentage of employees interested was actually higher than the typical participation. Bio, Sports, Baba, Central or anyone else please correct me if that is not what you heard also. Thanks -J
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 2, 2018 17:48:15 GMT -5
Dr. K may or may not be well known by endos across the nation. Depends on how well those docs stay current with their research. One would think that if those docs do their research, they have already heard of Afrezza as well. I do wonder how many GP's have heard of Dr. Kendall. Those are the people you'd really have to reach... Personally, I'm not a fan of extreme verbiage. Maybe it's because DBC (and I) are "trained" in science. Part of that training is to rely on observation. Trust senses over emotion. While physicians probably do still have emotions- at least one would hope they haven't become jaded beyond repair and still have some sense of compassion- emotional words would catch my attention, but likely turn me off. I suppose it boils down to how well he supports that claim. The problem as I see it is that I don't think the great majority of physicians would consider current insulin "barbaric". They might consider it ineffective, insufficient, dangerous, etc, but I highly doubt any would shake their head in agreement if someone told them it was barbaric. It comes across as being extreme and biased. They'll likely think "Of course someone that works for a company that manufactures a different form of insulin will make such claims." Or "This guy is off his rocker now." Instead of attacking previous insulins, I think it would have been better to praise Afrezza. "The first physiologic insulin" "Insulin that reduces hypos and reduces weight gain normally associated with insulin" or whatever else he plans on claiming at the ADA. In short, I don't see any benefit to calling insulin barbaric, but several drawbacks. Claims are only as powerful as the evidence used to support them. Might as well just let the evidence do the talking. Ok sweetheart, here's a "visual" for those of you "trained" in science to observe, "trust" your eyes, see any similarities let's add some synonyms for barbaric, as peppy mentioned, primitive, ancient, obsolete, dinosauric, torturous, annoying as all heck, antiquated, monotonous, not conducive to being compliant, etc. etc. oh yeah, forgot a big one NOT AS SAFE, less convenient, do you think those physicians would get turned off with the use of those descriptions as well?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 2, 2018 16:38:47 GMT -5
CCI, that is a very well written and thoughtful post! And some or all of the things you cite could happen. What I have found over the many years with MNKD, is that figures on paper, notwithstanding that they appear eminently reasonable, somehow never seem to work out (see my comment immediately below re MannMade's fine response to you). MannMade, "A plausibel valuaton on the $325m alone might be between $2.5B to 3.5B." Not sure that 10X revenue is particularly plausible. Maybe three or four times, but it does depend on the growth rate of the sales and the profit margin. And, as you point out, that would only be from international sales. No question, we have a shot, Mike and David K need to continue their hard work, as does Sports... In life, there are so many things from which we can derive pleasure, making a fistful of money is certainly one candidate. But being a part of a board like this is another. However, as Marilyn Monroe once sung, "A kiss on the hand may be grand, but it won't help pay the rental..." Joey, you're positively giddy today, best of luck tonight, try to relax and enjoy, but I don't think that's possible - you're too intense a guy for that! LOL! If you think I'm intense, take a look at the side by side graphic in the scripts section, that's INTENSE!! Then look at the picture of you and Sports underneath it LOL Thanks, Baba about 2 1/2 hrs. from faceoff figuring we'll split these next two and regain home ice advantage....that side by side graphic IS SOOO INTENSE!!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 2, 2018 15:24:13 GMT -5
I think that image is extremely powerful. The syringes represent the number of times the needle penetrates the skin, regardless if the dose is delivered by a “pen”. I hope MNKD uses that image in conjunction with the word “barbaric” in upcoming advertising. They would have to get Diabetes UK to agree since they own the copyright I believe. There is no way MNKD uses the word barbaric in upcoming adverts, the FDA simply would not allow it as that is a subjective opinion. I am really surprised that Dr Kendall used that term since I would have thought it would devalue his message in the eyes of endos. If the endo believes that statement is stupid then they are likely to regard the rest of the message as suspect as well. Have you ever listened to him in person, he is a very powerful and charismatic speaker. When he used the terms, it wasn't taken lightly and it was in complete sincerity. His other statement was extremely sincere as well, that being, WE have a moral obligation to the kids/pediatrics as well with the we meaning the medical community and his speaking to that arena not the shareholders sitting there. They are not just sitting back and waiting for the ADA, the message is already getting out to the endo's in my community. He is extremely respected by the endo's, I laughed when I read your statement about the endos thinking any statement coming from him would be deemed stupid....I believe they will get the correct message loud and clear if not already starting to happen. Funny Mannmade, just saw your post after posting this, goes right in line with the point I was making
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 2, 2018 15:11:12 GMT -5
So when is the centralcoast radio show, now that I would listen to You hit on some key points namely the better capacity utilization of the manufacturing and obviously the better plan of attack via better/titration, SKU's, and wrapping their hands around the pull through (getting Kendall so key on the last point and why Mike IS now the CEO of the year IMO. Nice summary CC I thought Mike won that honor because all of us on proboards kept voting for him over and over again. Well, who would know better than the members here that are shareholders correct? So I take that included a vote from the chameleon? and to be honest, getting Dr.Kendall and the story behind it as told by the good Dr. at the ASM was a total coup by Mike and IMO a big reason when looking back down the road as to why he would ultimately have deserved it and the votes by the members of the board that did in fact vote for him
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 2, 2018 14:09:45 GMT -5
So when is the centralcoast radio show, now that I would listen to You hit on some key points namely the better capacity utilization of the manufacturing and obviously the better plan of attack via better/titration, SKU's, and wrapping their hands around the pull through (getting Kendall so key on the last point and why Mike IS now the CEO of the year IMO. Nice summary CC
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 1, 2018 18:33:27 GMT -5
Perception is the driver and the only requirement to get to $6 or higher. The pps has been there in the past (pre-R/S) without scripts rising or approaching a break-even status. Let's hope Mike C, Dr. Kendall and team can start driving a seriously positive perception. They need a catalyst to change the perception. At this point we are 4 years after launch so there is a history and that makes it hard to change perceptions. I do not see a catalyst at the moment beyond the prospect of a near term spike around the ADA conference. Have you ever seen a change in perception when buy stops get taken out? I have .....I would venture to say that the first buy stops are just north of where we're sitting, the second set is up at the closely watched and very popularized "SABBY" $2.38 area, when those get taken out you'll see some volatility that will get everyone's new perception IMO. It's the catalyst that no one sees that keeps things interesting. Already, both you and TD along with our other writer friend have already mentioned the "near term spike" around the ADA conference....nothing like setting up trading expectations....gee I didn't know it was an exact science and that easy, what a bunch of masterful market timers we have here. SABBY must be some entity to be able to control the trading outcome of this equity, between the comments about SABBY, the warrants, and DF I feel like I'm living the Hunt Brothers "supposed control" of the entire silver market all over again en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday ....hmm, "Silver Thursday", who knows one day we may have a "Mannkind Monday" .....I'm not so sure I would call MK a pumper, just sayin....read the wiki on the Hunt Bros. and the Hubris they had in thinking they could control the entire silver market, seems to me some think they will continue to control the entire insulin market forever. It was "perceived" by many that the Hunt Bros. could maintain there grip until the unforeseen catalyst happened. Perceptions changed swiftly in one crazy Thursday.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 28, 2018 15:01:34 GMT -5
I really think it is a sign that the shorts see that they are running out of time. Seems almost too desperate of an article even for them. Especially now with one of the most well respected global diabetes experts (dr. K) saying just the opposite to the world. Was one thing to come out with an article like this a couple of years ago w Dr. Urbanski at the helm where the less informed might succumb to the FUD but today? Really? It was actually a very amusing article for me to read when considering how desperate it made LFD sound unless he is as Joey says just so uneduacated (paraphrasing) You know as these things come up they trigger little snippets from our gathering....in particular to your point, Mike mentioned how he had asked the former CMO to organize an SAB and it was taking awhile, he mused at how quickly the new CMO was able to put one of the stature it is together in relatively no time....if this doesn't stand out as one shining example of the differences between the "New Mannkind" and the prior one I don't know what does
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 28, 2018 14:33:13 GMT -5
Ugh! If this isn't the epitome of FUD I don't know what is. The proverbial general statement as follows from our fellow board member Matt: " It works the other way too; the best team is no guarantee of success if the science does not prove out and the science around Afrezza has many unanswered questions" My retort: Really, suppose you enlighten us on that broad and general statement of "the science around Afrezza has many unanswered questions", hmmm maybe you're right as to at least one question I ask everyday: How come it is the only treatment to reduce my A1c as effectively as it has and in as short a period as it has? I am convinced that the "best team" in this particular situation with their extensive experience surrounding their respective backgrounds in turnaround situations and one especially having been involved with standard of care and mealtime insulin already know the answers to those "many unanswered questions". Either they are pretty stupid for leaving their prior positions at some of the leading biotech and pharmaceutical companies (Amgen, Astella, & Eli Lilly respectively) for a company with many "unanswered questions" regarding "the concern of it's continuance as an ongoing entity", OR, they see Afrezza for what it really is, a game changer for the PWD population. I suspect that it is the latter....I know that is not what you have bet on and professed to others but I figure you will eventually see the light. Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend while I go have a nice lunch, take my Afrezza, and then go to see a Stanley Cup final while I remain in range with my insulin that still "has many unanswered questions"
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 28, 2018 13:49:50 GMT -5
He added right after: Very sad to see these seeking alpha articles attacking #afrezza & @mannkindcorp. The writer says no compensation or positions in the company.A nice guy trying to save everyone from this wonderful drug? Just doing community service warning strangers on Memorial weekend?Total joke! 7:36 AM - May 28, 2018
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 28, 2018 11:50:12 GMT -5
When he said barbaric, I literally got chills:-)) Me too Sports. Remember you could have heard a pin drop when he said that. My takeaway was this man (Dr. Kendall) is on a mission and believes he has a moral obligation to continue his work in helping the global PWD population but don't tell SO and LFD that, they believe there is no room for morals in the investment world . After reading LFD's latest regarding his rant on the STAT study I was going to start a "you can't fix stupid III" thread but at this point the articles are getting more entertaining than anything else and yes I do lump the two peas in a pod together. One is just more blatantly ________ (you can easily fill in the blank) than the other IMO.
Here was my response to LFD's attempt at discrediting the STAT study that got selectively edited at SA:
The point of the 4 weeks for the study was to show how vastly superior the product is (to aspart) when it is evidenced in bringing down the participants A1c's in such a short period of time compared to the usual 90 days they get checked. Mine dropped almost a full 3 points (2.9 to be exact) in just over 2 mos. As Dr. Kendall has said it is literally "eye popping" when the physicians see these results. When taken correctly, Afrezza is in an elite league of it's own when compared to the current Raa's. Your articles are very entertaining, now excuse me while I take my Afrezza
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 24, 2018 10:37:11 GMT -5
Joey, not a fan of the font color, but my "very experienced" eyes loved the font size. :-) Haha ok just for you then I'll use one of their other tones hope this is better!! I'm sure you're good with the hockey stick though Bring on those Capitals!!!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 24, 2018 9:48:28 GMT -5
Just an FYI, when I picked up my libre this week at CVS I was pleasantly surprised when they said "that will be $40"....I couldn't get my debit card in the pullout bin fast enough lol not sure what happened since last month but that was sweet to hear. Loving this new VGK themed font color so you will probably have to bear with it for a couple of weeks Ah yes, the best team money can buy - and loose NHL regulations. LOL LOL, I will tie this thesis in with MNKD (please feel free to read my comment regarding new leadership and ultimately the team concept in the articles section), this was an expansion team from grass roots up made up of unwanted players and coaches....you should research some of the poor decisions the teams in the league made. This is how putting the right TEAM together can mean the difference between winners and losers. It starts with leadership...the owner and GM of this TEAM was nothing short of a genius in putting the right pieces together regarding talent (both young and veteran), skill mix, and most importantly the right LEADERSHIP. This was nothing to do with the old Steinbrenner approach of buying the top pros in a sport at top dollar. This was actually more akin to GM Billy Beane and the Oakland A's and evaluating the right talent to create the perfect chemistry of a TEAM. I know DBC is going to love THIS analogy LOL!! Either way jealous haters will hate and come out with statements like yours, this TEAM genuinely cares about one another and plays for each other and their community. This will no doubt be a movie not just about the amazing historic season for an expansion team but about how they brought a community together that had just experienced a horrific tragedy. The same as I envision a movie about another man's vision and the company he built against all odds.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 24, 2018 9:11:37 GMT -5
With reference to the aforementioned article and title I would argue that a case could be made that not only is it possible but it already is "A New Mannkind" and those with the blinders on are either in denial or just haven't realized it yet. Over the last couple of days in the comments section of the article there has been some debate back and forth regarding whether or not SNY made the honest effort with PRIOR mgmt. to honor their joint agreement etc. toward a successful launch of Afrezza. We all have our opinions regarding same so this isn't about that rather more to establish the point about "The Old Mannkind" and how this already is "The New Mannkind" and there are those that still lump the NEW mgmt. team in with the past. For me the time spent to go to the dinner and ASM was invaluable. I queried Mike about his thoughts on SNY and the original launch, in a very diplomatic fashion he retorted about comparing their simultaneous launch of Toujeo with respect to DTC advertising, marketing, and brand awareness. He also mentioned the unfortunate timing of the visionary (my term) Viehbacher's departure who was in alliance with Al regarding what Afrezza could mean to the T1/T2 population with respect to mealtime insulin and the dinosaur (again my term) Brandicourt who had been in charge at the time of Exubera's launch with Pfizer. In essence, it was the "perfect storm" regarding the negative timing for Afrezza's launch at SNY. Couple that with again the "perfect storm" negative timing of SNY leaving MNKD at the alter on it's one year anniversary along with Al's passing just a month later and the "Old Mannkind" picture is easy to see. Mar 2016 just one month after Al's passing and the "New Mannkind" is born: VALENCIA, Calif., March 14, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) (TASE:MNKD) today announced that Michael E. Castagna, Pharm.D., has joined the company as its Chief Commercial Officer, effective immediately. Dr. Castagna will lead commercialization efforts for Afrezza®, reporting to Matthew Pfeffer, Chief Executive Officer, and will serve on MannKind's executive leadership team. Dr. Castagna has over 20 years of experience in healthcare, pharmaceutical, biotech and specialty pharmacy industries. He joins MannKind from Amgen, Inc., where he spent over three years as Vice President, Global Commercial Lead for a portfolio of nine biosimilar drugs, and Vice President, Global Lifecycle Management. Prior to Amgen, Dr. Castagna, was Executive Director of Bristol-Myers Squibb's Immunology franchise, where he served as co-lead to relaunch Orencia IV and launch Orencia SC, both rheumatoid arthritis drugs. Before BMS, Dr. Castagna was with Sandoz (Novartis) as Vice President and Division Head for Biopharmaceuticals, North America, where he established the US Biologics Business Unit and relaunched its lead product, Omnitrope, a human growth hormone. Prior to Sandoz, Dr. Castagna held a variety of positions with EMD (Merck), Serono, Pharmasset and DuPont Pharmaceuticals. Dr. Castagna received his Bachelors of Science - Pharmacy degree from Philadelphia College of Pharmacy, his Doctor of Pharmacy from Massachusetts College of Pharmacy, and his MBA from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. "I'm very pleased to welcome Michael to the MannKind team in this important new role," said Matthew Pfeffer, Chief Executive Officer of MannKind Corporation. "His extensive pharma background, including driving sales and marketing for so many new and relaunched products, will be invaluable as we prepare to reintroduce Afrezza to the market in the coming months." Dr. Castagna said, "I am excited to be joining MannKind at this critical intersection as we transform our future. I am enthusiastic about the commercial opportunity for Afrezza and the potential it has to help adults with diabetes manage this difficult disease." MannKind also announced today that Juergen A. Martens has resigned as its Chief Operating Officer, effective March 18, 2016. Mr. Pfeffer added, "Juergen was instrumental in building the commercial manufacturing infrastructure that we have today in Danbury. We thank Juergen for his many contributions to the company, and we wish him the very best. Operationally, MannKind's Chief Technology Officer and Senior Vice President for Technical Operations, Joseph Kocinsky, will continue his existing responsibilities for the manufacture of Afrezza." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/5285/mannkind-announces-appointment-michael-castagna#ixzz5GQOmzvFZThe domino's then continue to fall into place: Mike eventually becomes CEO at the end of May 2017....essentially one year ago. Mike brings in a new CCO Pat McCauley and then the new CMO who in turn has some additional key personnel follow. So let's compare the "Old Mannkind" with the "New Mannkind" Old Mannkind: Al Mann, Matt Pfeffer, Hakan Edstrom, Dr. Ray Urbanski, Juergen Martens New Mannkind: Mike Castagna, Pat McCauley, Dr. David Kendall It is as plain as day the differences between the two "companies", the prior one was not meant as a total pharmaceutical company but rather more research and manufacturing, the current one has the complete makeup of a pharmaceutical company. Without going into the resume's and differences between the key players involved outside of Al (one can easily pull up the resume's and backgrounds of each of the individuals mentioned) it is clear the differences between the two companies. Had Mannkind not morphed into a newly formed pharmaceutical company already I would most likely agree and be open minded to the author's concepts regarding his take of a "New Mannkind", however, given the promise of the new leadership and their respective global experience and backgrounds I submit that it already is a "New Mannkind" and vastly different from the "Old Mannkind" and much of this will be recognized in the next few quarters if it already hasn't been. Continuing with the domino's theme:
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