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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 17, 2018 13:40:35 GMT -5
I went into this year’s ASM... Upon arriving, I could see that MannKind staff was ready to have guests. There was a nice assortment of refreshments including pastries for shareholders. ... Final thoughts, MannKind management has a ton of confidence, excitement and energy. It really showed at the Annual Shareholders Meeting. The teamwork and comradery on the executive team was palpable. They are ready to “rock and roll.” I think I win. Wrong!, we (PWD and those long) win in the end was my takeaway from the last 48hrs. ....drove to Cali, went to dinner, ended up sleeping about 4hrs. went to SH meeting, drove straight back to Vegas straight to Golden Knights game for a phenomenal win...if it weren't for Afrezza not sure I would have had the energy to twirl the "battle towel" they gave out for the entire game So other than the previous comments I made from the parking lot before heading back just a couple of remaining thoughts to what most have summarized already, One additional thing I wanted to mention regarding the vote for the additional 3 million shares to be used for employee incentive stock plan, from what I recall Mike mentioned that about 60% of employees have opted into the plan and how extremely high that was relative to what is typical. If I didn't catch that correctly then one of the others that attended can correct. I thought that was a very nice vote of confidence of the non-management staff as well. Along with that, evidently a lot of current employees have been recommending to their qualified networks the opportunities regarding any job openings. Mike stressed the point of having some excellent talent joining the company in today's current tight job market environment. I would also add that in a very tactful way he answered a question the evening of the dinner I presented regarding if previous management were more akin to a ship that was adrift without direction. His response is pretty much what most of us already know, Al was a genius with respect to the science and engineering aspects and that is evident not only in what Afrezza and technosphere bring to society but also in the extensive patents that were put in place. However, promotion and marketing were another story, the assumption of having the best insulin on the market would sell itself was a bit naive (my words not Mikes) especially with the management change at Sanofi (prior Pfizer executive that was in charge originally with Exubera) creating a perfect storm for the unsuccessful launch that took hold. Another takeaway is that Mike reiterated his confidence in meeting guidance and stated such in particular. Also, for those that think they would sell off Afrezza to further develop the company in other directions my takeaway was the exact opposite, that being that Afrezza is MNKD's flagship product and will remain so and that if anything the other products etc. would be more susceptible to getting sold to partners etc. again that is the way I interpreted what I heard. The other take I got regarding Kendall and others leaving Lilly was also more of them not wanting to reinvent a wheel that wouldn't be feasible regarding what already exists to be a new standard of care for mealtime insulin. There are a lot of FUD articles written and those that have predicted the demise of this company and continue to predict it years later.....the little engine that could is about to finish it's uphill climb IMO and move on to cruising on it's own. Mike cannot redo the past, however he can and has taken the bull by the horns (tremendous kudos regarding reaching out to David Kendall and having the vision and confidence to do so) and with his previous experience of turnaround situations in his prior positions help Afrezza and Technosphere realize their fullest potential. Mike and the company will continue to have my full support both as a patient, patient advocate, as well as an investor with strong conviction, GO KNIGHTS GO!! Vegas Strong/MNKD Long and Strong
Excellent recaps by those others that attended really couldn't add much else without being redundant. Thank you all for your time and perspectives, great meeting you all finally!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 13:51:25 GMT -5
One huge takeaway today that stood out to me were the key folks/players that followed Dr. Kendall from LLY...it's like we got LeBron along with the top 3 picks in the lottery!! Think key personnel with one in particular having been a key player responsible for Trulicity
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 9:38:48 GMT -5
If Dr. Kendall is making comments like Mannkind already has what other BP are still trying to develop (paraphrasing from his interview in March), what in the world can the big players be thinking? Are they really going to leave this to a hope and a prayer that Mannkind doesn't make it financially? I find it hard to believe that someone in a backroom in every big player's headquarters isn't taking pencil to paper and trying to determine the value of the next standard of care in meal time insulin and comparing it to the continuing development costs they'll be incurring trying to catch up. Someone this morning noted Mike's and Dr. Kendall's connections (e.g. how India was won), and you have to think that these same connections are pondering the same thing that Dr. Kendall has already acknowledged by his coming on board. Let's take it one step forward, Kendall had a choice, stay with the company that could spend the next 10yrs. trying to develop something that already exists...he most likely decided he didn't want to wait around for that...Again, he turned down the goliath's to team up with David It's right in front of you people...plain as day, oh yeah let's focus on guidance on a fledgling disruptor bwahahah!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 9:23:44 GMT -5
So I ask any reasonable person, is it by mere coincidence that an article questioning mgmts credibility was published this am. like the noise from a running toilet pipe as the ASM is about to get underway? Speaking of ASM's I have come to understand by not just one shareholder from this forum that also a certain "respected" member of this very board (the same forum that has been referred to as an "echo chamber" by one particular "writer" lol) actually solicited via direct messaging these shareholders to sell their shares predicting a BK TWO YEARS AGO!! Whilst talking/conspiring about the possibility of raising funds to take advantage of same projected sequence of events. Nothing surprises me anymore surrounding the failure of the dark side that continues to try and lean against this little engine that could story. You can't make this stuff up. Liane, feel free to private message me if need be regarding same. Have to get ready to attend an ASM that at least one known individual falsely predicted would not be here today as we still know it
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 8:35:43 GMT -5
Well, Joey, given the local time, you and Uvula obviously didn't have enough to drink! And thanks to Sports - that cardboard cutout of Mike was very, very realistic! BTW, if Sports is up THIS morning leading an exercise routine, she is no doubt Super Woman! Seriously, who could sleep after taking all that in, believe me it was very much music to my ears. I met the previous mgmt. and when looking back to then great intentions but it is akin to the majors vs. minors regarding backgrounds, networks, connections, and experience. This isn't pumping this is just the reality of the situation. You can feel one's (Mike's) confidence when sincere, you tell me if you felt that was not genuine and real Lol, my Airbnb host just texted me that breakfast and coffee is ready, how much are you guys paying for the Hyatt Again?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 8:21:32 GMT -5
Mike is the little engine that could, he believes and is committed, as is Dr. David Kendall who actually passed up some big time offers to come to the little engine that could....chew on that for a while, well worth the trip. Thanks to all who attended and a shout out to Sports for coordinating the evening! Another huge takeaway from last evening....you cannot underestimate Mike's background and connections he's made from his past positions...it was instrumental and the key to getting the deal done for India, once Mike learned about Cipla's own inhalable getting rejected it was an easy phone call to his already known connections with that company...No brainer for him. Now take that and combine it with Dr. Kendall's experience, network and connections and you have a very powerful combination moving forward. In 12 weeks you cannot imagine the strides that have already been made. Think about it, the SAB is made up of the top KOL in their respective areas of expertise...ie., lung functionality, hypoglycemia, etc....when he says "gold standard", he (Kendall) means it with all sincerity. Again LOTS to chew on!!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 7:43:34 GMT -5
FYI, a fair amount of them are...and believe wholeheartedly in the product they are selling. It flies in the face of those that question their (the sales force) commitment and longevity with the company. If that's true, then Mannkind should boast about it. The more I think about it, the more appealing I find the idea of diabetics selling to diabetics. Mannkind going out of its way to find diabetic sales reps and management candidates would make for a worthy promotion that could also boost the drug's presence in the diabetic community. Actually the CCO did point that out last night, for the amount of time and as interested and as fascinated as you appear to be in this company and it's story I fully would have expected you there or at the very least at the meeting this am. As one of your "friends" likes to always finish his articles with "stay tuned"!!!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 2:15:16 GMT -5
digger - Your constant slamming of every single positive comment on this board is wearing thin. Be forewarned! I don't how see how asking about Dr. Kendall's focusing on type 1 in the interview qualifies as "slamming." Same for suggesting more diabetic salespeople -- that just seems to make more sense. I'm pretty sure the FDA wouldn't object to a salesperson documenting their own success using afrezza. FYI, a fair amount of them are...and believe wholeheartedly in the product they are selling. It flies in the face of those that question their (the sales force) commitment and longevity with the company.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 16, 2018 1:52:39 GMT -5
Mike is the little engine that could, he believes and is committed, as is Dr. David Kendall who actually passed up some big time offers to come to the little engine that could....chew on that for a while, well worth the trip. Thanks to all who attended and a shout out to Sports for coordinating the evening!
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 14, 2018 15:44:56 GMT -5
Depends on whether or not you think AFREZZA is the best prandial insulin As a user, think is not an option as the ones that are properly using it KNOW it is ...just sayin....ok carry on.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 13, 2018 11:39:54 GMT -5
I like this from the comments section James M. Passero 3:51 pm on May 7, 2018 I am curious as to why you are not talking about Afrezza. It is proven to be faster than Fiasp and easier to use. Could you please explain why you are not promoting Afrezza. I heard Dr. Edelman say in a presentation that he is in fact using Afrezza himself. To me, that speaks volumes about the efficacy of Afrezza. Thank you in advance for your response. Reply TCOYD 9:04 am on May 8, 2018 This article is focused on the latest fast-acting insulin to hit the market. If you’d like info and opinions on Afrezza specifically, please watch Dr. Pettus and Dr. Edelman speak about them in these videos: www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAwrjX0928Ywww.youtube.com/watch?v=Xtg1ESeqAQw&t=84sReply
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 12, 2018 15:31:13 GMT -5
One last bit of information. Initially, I didn't like SO's articles because I thought he was too critical of Afrezza's prospects but agreed with his cash modeling. Over time his analysis has proven to be more correct than not. So, if that is considered flipping so be it. Bottom line : I stopped being critical of him because he has earned it. One thing puzzles me about SO though. He claims to write for SA because he "enjoys it". Within the last 6 months or so, I believe he became a father. Even if the new baby sleeps well, there has to be some level of sleep deprivation and also more demands on his time and wallet. One would think that SA articles would go by the wayside since they produce no income for him. Maybe he really does enjoy the analysis and writing and does not need the money but it all seems a bit odd to me. Something doesn't add up. I heard the guy at the ASM offer up the $500m. I do not recall what demands Mannkind had then in terms of debt obligations but a good chunk of that $500m would have gone to lenders I suspect. Not sure how Mannkind could even value Afrezza today for a potential buyer. It certainly wouldn't be on a DCF model. Sales need to make a dramatic upturn the second half of the year or I believe the product will no longer be commercially viable. Perhaps the combination of STAT, cash program and Kendall's influence will make this possible. Mike has had a steep road but nonetheless, he has had time to build enough of a foundation that there really is no reason the company should not hit the upper end or even exceed guidance and if they do, 2019 will require a 4-5x ramp of US sales to demonstrate the product is here to stay. odd to you and many others, feel free to draw your own conclusions, ironic I posted the above while you were posting this
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 12, 2018 15:28:21 GMT -5
golfeveryday "Why not say this when MNKD was really struggling." I have been for years, ask @sportsrancho So what is your exit strategy to relieve your misery? Is there a capitulation point? Based on what you have stated you feel there is a risk that "afrezza will take down the MNKD ship" and it needs to be tossed overboard, if you fear they will not toss it overboard and cause the ship to "sink" at what point do you jump off the ship? I'm sure you have anguished over this as you masochistically read those so called "accurate" numbers and models that you believe in. Don't take this the wrong way Kastanes, but it is more of a question for not just you but I would imagine quite a few others that are as anguished as you are? I never get it, you have convicted longs, convicted shorts, and then the convicted deer in the headlights holders that can easily pull a trigger and move on with life, especially if they " have been for years". as you stated. So just curious if there is a "line in the sand" that you have or are you going to continue to "torture" yourself holding on for hope of a sale of Afrezza? I seriously doubt that Kendall was brought on board the ship with his background to sell off the diabetes "standard of care" that he believes it is only to go on as CMO for the other irons in the fire. Having said that: A couple of excerpts from the archives (link to entire article below) take what he says and apply to when any momentum in this equity was moving north along with the continued assertions (FUD) that you will be " guaranteed" to continue to be diluted to death by a thousand cuts : G. Hudson: Shorts need to control the stock's share price over a long time (often several months to well over a year), and can't afford to just accumulate an unlimited number of short positions in the stock, so they have to be buying shares at the same time they are selling shares too. When the shorts drive the share price down, eliminating buyers as discussed above, some of those investors trying to sell their shares at that same time will follow the share price activity downward lowering their ask price. Now the shorts can buy back some of the shares they have shorted at lower prices including some shares where longs have put stop-loss sale orders to protect against downside losses. The shorts will only buy shares part of the way back up as the share price rises, and then wait to see if new buyers come into the market. If the share price continues to rise up to much again during the day, the shorts will repeat the same selling and buying process to control the share price. As mentioned above, the shorts need to control the share price over an extended period of time. They need to wear down the longs with rumor mongering as well as by creating fear as the longs continue to see the share price go down from the computerized trading. They hope the longs will give up and sell their shares at the lowest possible share price.Another observation, shorts try to wear down the longs by making sure that the share price closes down as many days in a row as they can put together. At the close of each day, I witnessed volume dramatically increasing as the shorts tried to insure Herbalife's share price closed down. Shorts are hoping the longs frustration with the share price continuing downward will end up in capitulation where as many longs as possible just give up and sell their shares. Kastanes are you there yet? (not part of the article but tying into my post)
I don't know how low the shorts will drive the share price of Herbalife during this current short attack, but I do believe Herbalife is a strong good growing company. As with all false short attacks, the share price will bounce back. After the share price bottom is reached, I expect the shorts to continue their rumor mongering so they can continue buying to cover their shorts as the share price rises back up. Since Herbalife is already in its 5th month of being attacked by shorts, and if history repeats itself, anyone buying shares of Herbalife (HLF) at this time should be in for some nice gains over the next 6 to 12 months as Herbalife's share price rises back to and above where it was when this short attack began. The shorts greatest fear is that people will figure out their lies to soon, and the share price will rise up to quickly. I think there is a good chance for that to happen as a lot of people will be learning more about this scheme. Also I have to believe this manipulation has to involve collusion between all the major players in the Herbalife short attack since it wouldn't work like it has if they didn't work together. If one or more of the major short players decided they didn't want to participate further in driving the share price down, and decided to buy to cover, this would create a major problem for those other major short players. The remaining major short players would not only have to drive the price down based on selling shares to new longs but would also have to sell shares to those other major short players buying to cover their shorts. The remaining short players would not be able to manipulate the stock share price as easy as they did working together.
seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market ....again thank you G Hudson, IMO one of the best blogs ever authored on SA
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 11, 2018 17:23:46 GMT -5
I see round II of this thread topic has devolved in the same way the previous one did. Moderators, please! Mods, please leave it unlocked a bit longer. I find it amusing when people of great intelligence (referring to all here) do their best to make themselves appear unfixable... Thanks, back to topic here is the best part of the following, where did he miss this or better yet what part did he not understand from this part of the post? SO: Tell me....what are your projections? Have the courage to put them down, AND put down what they would be without STAT, etc. Are you courageous enough to put numbers on the table? I HIGHLY DOUBT IT. What will you say when your numbers are not being met. I bet you will offer any number of excuses. Joey: I don't make excuses, no need to, but if you go back a couple of years or so I was one of the first to state that until the insurance issue got taken care of scripts would never get off the ground...I didn't need to write two years of articles to foresee that as I was one of the first denied frustrated patients who was in touch with the then rep that was as equally frustrated, they left SNY and are now with DEXCOM btw. So let me patronize you and appease your egocentric modeling for the purposes of entertaining you:
I will make it easy. Fill In The Blanks Q2 net revenue with your thesis on STAT _Q2 will most likely not feel any direct effect as the quarter will be basically over by then so given we are just about halfway through it _4.2M____ Q2 net revenue without your thesis __4.2M______ Q3 with __6.2M______ Q3 without __4.5M_____ Q4 with ____8.5M_____ Q4 without ___5.5M______ Now the bigger question to you: Where do you think the SI will be by the end of Q4, and what do you think the sp will be if your projection is correct or if mine is? I do believe that the company will meet the lower end of its guidance between net rev and other rev., I know you do not forecast that in your models
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9946/fix-stupid?page=3#ixzz5FEYinwIH Spencer Osborne, Contributor Comments (14447) |+ Follow |Send Message | Author’s reply » bob..... This is very interesting as well. If you look at his non-stat numbers he is saying that sales would be: Q1 - $3.4 Q2 - $4.2 (24% growth) Q3 - $4.5 (7% growth) Q4 - $5.5 ( 22% growth) The STAT study was a small study conducted by a University....YET....He attributes massive value to it in terms of scripts. The question here is simple. If this was SOOOOO critical, why did the company not do it long ago themselves. See from the mentality of that statement right there, somethings just cannot be fixed. Maybe they (prior management) were in over their heads and didn't have the caliber of current management, fortunately by some divine intervention that did get fixedNow his STAT numbers Q1 - $3.4 Q2 - $4.2 (24% growth) Q3 - $6.2 ( 48% growth) Q4 - $8.5 ( 37% growth) Essentially he is saying that STAT will account for an additional $4.7 million in net script revenue or an added 7,800 scripts in 26 weeks. Instead of 16,667 scripts in the second half, he anticipates 24,467. By his thinking, the STAT study will be responsible for about one third of scripts. 11 May 2018, 11:49 AM Report Abuse Reply0Like Spencer Osborne, Contributor Comments (14447) |+ Follow |Send Message | Author’s reply » Jpap..... "Bob, you left out quite a bit, so let's put into the proper full context, again please do not selectively edit, because the way you edited it, Spencer replied that I was calling for a miss which couldn't be further from the truth, thank you "potsie" " JPAP laid out numbers that are BELOW guidance. That means that he is calling for a GUIDANCE MISSKindly refer to the slide on the guidance from the February 2018 presentation. It states: "AFREZZA NET REVENUE $25-$30m" So lets assess the numbers JPAP.
You are calling for Afrezza net revenue of $22.3 million Yes that is correct 22.3M from Afrezza net revenue + other revenueThe last time I checked, $22.3 million was LESS THAN $25m-$30m. I think that many would agree with that. Perhaps I should say, "you can't fix.....", because clearly you are either confused about your numbers or confused about what the guidance is. No SO you just can't read or only read what fits your needs CHEERS!Cheers 11 May 2018, 12:24 PM Report Abuse
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 11, 2018 16:47:53 GMT -5
Aged, I have been in business over 35yrs. and have learned over that period of time there are some employees/individuals/customers that you just "can't fix" so forgive me if I carried that over but it is the same thought process regarding not just one particular individual but many that fall into the same "arena". Maybe I feel it's stupid to have to respond on another medium because the one that is selectively biased causes me to do so, would you agree that is pretty childish, amateur, and stupid? You are choosing/assuming to apply to one individual, but it is a general statement regarding not just one individual but a whole wrath of ridiculous sentiment that surrounds that situation, ie., stupid/lazy physicians, pharmacies, competing sales reps, you can pick who you want to fall under the label of that which cannot be "fixed" but I am speaking from direct experience of having to deal with same in all the examples I mentioned above. Again, the frustration is more so from a satisfied user of the product that I believe should be in more PWD arsenal towards fighting the disease but isn't because of "stupid" barriers to entry they have been saddled with. I get that you are happy and content to stick yourself, but as Liane pointed out, that is a personal choice/perspective that cannot be assumed that a majority of others share. Wishing you the best, going forward -J SO has no influence over what doctors and insurance companies do. He seems skeptical that they will change. You seem to be having a heated personal debate with him as if convincing him is going to change the stupid behavior of doctors and insurance companies. It is SO you are calling stupid with your title (or at least anyone reading the thread would assume so), not the barriers that he seems to think will be difficult to remove. Most of us longs thought the barriers wouldn't exist at all... most of us thought they'd disappear much sooner. I'm hopeful that things are finally lining up, but I certainly wouldn't call anyone stupid for looking at the past few years and being skeptical about that. MNKD made some missteps, the FDA screwed us, SNY screwed us and that left us perceived as dead and struggling for life in a somewhat broken medical industry. Is someone really evil or stupid just because they might believe the barriers are still real and significant? Obviously there are still many smart people on Wall Street that aren't bought into the risk-reward proposition of MNKD. Maybe you should spend your time trying to convince GS, or the chief strategist of whichever broker you use, of your point of view. If you swayed them it would make a difference. Convincing SO will mean nothing. The title of the thread is the title of the thread, it covers a broad range of issues regarding all of the above, if you assume it's targeted at one specific individual then that is your interpretation, but there are others that it could very easily apply to also that either "just don't get it" such as many physicians that prior PWD have stated gave ignorant responses when they inquired of their "trusted" physician about Afrezza. Why would I want to convince anyone that isn't a PWD, family member of one, or friend thereof, of the reward of Afrezza? I could give two poops about trying to convince anyone whether it's GS, WS, "chief strategists" lol on that one, SO, you or anyone else for that matter of the risk/reward proposition. Actually, I am in the MK mindset and actually enjoy watching the SI continue to sit in the graveyard as he puts it. Do you think that it is just going to evaporate into thin air? I might have thought that a while back until it didn't seize the opportunity to get flat with huge profits when the s/p was close to zippo....to me there is only one logical answer why that didn't take place, if you go with SO's response he states it's is the natural short hedge position that certain players have against their strategic positions, etc., if that were the case what did they stand to gain by not exercising the hedge at almost 100% gains? Give me one logical answer to that...it shouldn't be like trying to answer Beal's conjecture. Trying to convince what cannot be fixed would be akin to insanity, I only counter ridiculous statements for the benefit of those that are behind the company and Al's correct vision of what it means for PWD among others with diseases that can be treated with the benefit of the same technology.
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