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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 10, 2017 14:30:36 GMT -5
IMHO, Dr. D will convert today 11/10/17 to get the max 4M shares at $3.25 pps. If yes, the news will come out next week. pps will no longer be pinned down but rise further towards $6. Time for small investors to avg up and shorts to cover. Next week will be fun. I hope you’re right, but it doesn’t make sense to me. If they were ready for shares, then why didn’t they just make a deal for shares? Why January 15th as the time limit? The deal says to me that Deerfield is waiting for MNKD to accomplish something they said they could do, by January 15th. If that’s the case, nothing has happen since the CC. I thought they bumped the due date to Oct 31st because they were waiting for the FDA decision. So why not convert then? Why another bump to Jan 15th? The only new date we’ve been given is the shareholder vote on adding 140mil shares. Are they waiting for that approval? Are they waiting to see the results of the first round of commercials? Is Dr D the one who pushed MNKD to run the marketing now instead of the 1Q? Just my thoughts, I guess we’ll find out soon. Mike talked about working with the formulary's and one large one in particular, so hypothetically speaking, the STAT study results in conjunction with the push out to Jan from Oct on Dr D and moving up the ad campaign along with a 6:1 call to put ratio with the Jan monthly expiry at 5 strike (see below) currently the premium is roughly .25 so whoever/whatever entity is short the calls is getting closer to zero and if s/p starts to get anywhere near that level in the next 60 days is risking losing gains made in the past few weeks (Apologies for the long run on sentences, I'll make it a New Years resolution to try and be better on them). Couple that with shares still hard to borrow and the high short interest, we are coming to some moments of truth into year end. Personally I wouldn't mind if the run up came after the 1st from a tax standpoint because every time I ladder up on the options I have to realize the gain from the sale of the ITM calls (only issue with trading the options but of course a good problem and that is why tax loss carry forwards come in handy lol) The option chain for 1/18 below, notice the huge disparity at the 5 strike between calls and puts:  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 10, 2017 13:46:09 GMT -5
Really interesting trading day. Lots of buying early then a take down. With the size of the short interest now, and confirmation that the drop from $6.5 to $3.00 (confirmed at least for me) was mostly short selling, it appears that the shorts are just trying to keep the price from getting out of control. But with revenue growing and bankruptcy off the table for the foreseeable future, what exactly are the shorts counting on here?  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 10, 2017 11:48:22 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 10, 2017 11:41:49 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 9, 2017 13:18:55 GMT -5
C'mon, chart readers and everyone else - it's one of two things - first, a flight to quality (markets getting killed), or second, preparing for another offering.  You know Baba, you say that in jest, however as far as i can think back there seems to be many more days than not where the major indices are down and red and this little puppy stands out in green...just sayin since you brought up the flight to quality line fwiw |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 9, 2017 12:40:03 GMT -5
I am watching. we know the Deerfield price is/was $3.25. 1 million shares at 1 hour and 25 mins of trade. yesterdays gap closed. hold of the gap close, yesterdays highs, then prior daily highs would target in succession. up to like $3.48. past that, would be attention grabbing.  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 9, 2017 1:30:25 GMT -5
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 8, 2017 18:24:52 GMT -5
Las Vegas Mad Money 3PM Sorry couldn't help myself you can delete if you wish just thought that would be really funny  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 8, 2017 13:27:19 GMT -5
In my opinion, the volume is relatively low at 2,000,000 one hour in. I was wondering if we would see really big volume this morning due to the doubling of shares slated for next week. This isn't a massive sell off but mostly shorts selling today (big surprise). I sure wish they would go away. But then I have been wishing that for years.  Embrace the short position CCI for if it weren't for that position I do believe the direct offering would not have been achieved at the level it was On another note, notice the MACD on the daily chart battling the zero line while at the same time the s/p continues to negotiate the 50d (green line right at the $3.10 area). The OBV is still at high levels and the daily volume has contracted. With the equity still on the hard to borrow lists, any demand (construed positive news) will overcome available supply and we will back in an upward projection, conversely any legitimate negative event will alleviate the supply/demand imbalance and will legitimately cause a downturn in price. I use the term legitimate because shares being sold that are not being liquidated by long holdings obviously continue to be on "borrowed" time....their hour glass is the non-growth script thesis relative to the company's balance sheet, etc. If the CC had legitimately caused concerns regarding that specific thesis, then we would have seen a much more legitimate collapse in s/p amidst much heavier volume.  |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 8, 2017 12:02:27 GMT -5
Call would have been good IF they had addressed cash flow and capital infusion in a much more serious manner. Baba, I think you've just said more about it than they did. Burning through capital and repeatedly diluting shares only to issue new shares, rinse and repeat with no earnings accretive effect is NOT something companies do. It's not something wall street likes and it probably isn't going to end well. If a company is profitable, sure management has the right to ask for lots of leeway without needing to go back to shareholders for approval. MNKD isn't. Just curious... is there some upper limit that you would have thought bad or is the sky the limit for plenty of shares... 500 million... a billion? In biotech land it is absolutely done on a regular basis (I could give you a plethora of four letter symbols and I'm sure Baba could also lol...sorry Babs didn't mean to pour any salt in any wounds), especially those that are still without a drug/product on the market, we at least have an approved drug that is being marketed and the marketing budget just had the checkbook opened big time. The short side of the equation may think those shares will hit the market right away or at lower prices (which may have happened with the previous mgmt.) but as Kovacocy mentions as well that could be a mistake and again as he mentions would open the door for another little squeeze similar to the last one. The one thing that AF hangs his hat on is that the survival rate and success of biotechs that actually make it and get a "successful" drug to market is very very small so when he bashes them he knows the odds of being correct in their s/p drops and possible demises are very high. The problem he has with MNKD is that it has nine lives....figured I would use that term around here for the cat lovers |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 8, 2017 11:09:34 GMT -5
This ^^^^ ....MNKD is like the weather in Denver, one minute you could be in the middle of a snowstorm and the next the sun could be out and 70 degrees....That happened one time I was there, ok it was the next day but you get the picture |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 8, 2017 10:50:22 GMT -5
Are you really assuming that approval of the authorization of an additional 140 million shares means that 100% of those newly authorized shares will be flipped in a raise?!Actually, I hope at a minimum 100M will be flipped in a raise. Yes I do. At a 23M burn per quarter and to get through years 3 and 4 of this launch, they will need 200M. Why have the agita associated with having to ask shareholders every 3-6 months to authorize more shares? This is pure distraction and one which shorts will take advantage of each and everytime. If the management team is not living up to expectations, get rid of them and hire new and make it sooner rather than later. That's all. Hard launch has commenced and to take advantage of it, they need more people in the field, more approvals around the world. There is no way they can focus on this if every three months they are faced with the spectre of what? Having to lay off good people or getting approval for another raise? Geesh. I just as soon get on with it. If they don't use all of the monies raised how about a forward split where I receive 5 shares for every 1 owned. You know? There's got to be a better way to ensure Afrezza's success. Finally, in my view, if you are going to feast on a pig, you don't start by cutting off one leg at a time, cook it and then cut of another do you? Slaughter it and cook it - ONCE. Sorry but that's how I think this should be done. Exactly!! In other words "quit pussy footing around!!!" you can never make anyone happy, they either say why didn't they do a bigger raise when they had the opportunity so we would not be in this position...authorize the shares and when opportunity presents for strategically raising the capital GO FOR IT!! Volume is nothing on today's forced selloff and there is still no supply available to be borrowed at the largest DTC...this was very much expected this morning, it too shall pass IMO |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 7, 2017 23:39:14 GMT -5
Mike mentioned they're watching how two lawsuits between a couple of the large Pharma plays out, it plays into pricing etc. and anti-competitive practices if I recall correctly, was working while I overheard it. Will look at the transcripts to get a better idea of the context it was mentioned in. It was Pat not Mike, here is the excerpt which I think is sooooo important regarding the situation with the payors, etc.: Patrick McCauley I mean I think you have seen two lawsuits, one Pfizer versus J&J and one Shire versus Allergen looking at the some of the market behaviors around access to care on different product profiles. This is something we're watching closely and studying. We've had many good discussions with the payers and we have a lot of good support out there with thought leaders as well as patient advocates. And so we know we have a slightly higher dropout rate because of the actions between the competition as well as the payer. But we also have a lot of success given our limited contracted lives. Remember we only contract for roughly 20% of all the prescriptions. And so as we go out there we get 70% to 80% coverage when we do the prior authorization works. So the doctors play for the patient, those get approved many times even though we don't contract for that business. So it makes sense for payer now with this new data to really revaluate some of those previous decisions honestly that were made three years ago under the regime of Sanofi and so very few categories reviews have happened in the last two years as there hasn't been much innovation on mealtime influence. With this label change I can tell you a few of payers are reviewing the category in Q1 and we do expect to continue that good progress there. But it's always been about these payers but we feel good about to the direction and the discussions that were going on. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 7, 2017 22:28:58 GMT -5
DBC, it remains to be seen if it just gets glossed over, if in fact price is truth and price reacts (not just short term) in stride then it would be telling there is most likely more to the story of just a capital raise for DTC purposes, servicing debt, etc.....Mike mentioned about the monthly interest carry like it was a thorn in his side and used the term optionality with respect to having the additional shares available...how about raising enough capital when advantageous (higher price levels and when appropriate) as opposed to what many felt that prior management was not on the ball with previously which would have alleviated the worst of times regarding needs for R/S etc. Wouldn't it be nice to retire most if not all debt while becoming more cash flow positive within a reasonable amount of time? Mike and Binder seem to want to accelerate the growth and seem confident they can and if it means raising more capital or there are other reasons I wouldn't get upset just yet, after all, no one imagined he would have raised the 57M on roughly 10M shares two mos. ago. Mike seems to adapt his colors well, just like a chameleon I absolutely would have LOVED if they'd tapped the ATM when we were above $5. And you certainly miss my point about glossing over... i.e. management. It sucks to be left reading the market volatile swirling tea leaves for signs. I suspect that if the share price is strong you'll assume something great and if share price is weak I'd be willing to bet you'll blame it on shorts/manipulation and still wish to believe something great. So you tell me how the price represents truth. What was the truth that took us below a dollar... that cut the price by more than half after the run up? DBC, this company was essentially left for dead and the price at the time was truth at under a buck...the prior management were in over their heads regarding the PBM's and a proper game plan to execute on with respect to the upcoming financial hurdles. For those of us that have run businesses or have been in management for years, you know leadership when you hear it and actions that speak volumes. You have to agree that it is night and day to listen to this management team compared to the past. As I stated in a prior post, I'm not sure how Mike ended up on our shores (maybe via KK? Matt? or divine intervention but I thank the lord not just as an investor but more importantly for those PWD (and potentially other diseases) that have an increased chance of experiencing the benefits of continued innovations via this great technology. Regarding the price coming back a half or more from the run up, nothing more than the pendulum over-swinging the opposite way prematurely and having a natural retracement from short term extreme overbought conditions....yes I still believe the technicals do come into play and interestingly enough why we have been sitting right on the 50d sma for a few days awaiting this fundamental event (CC) |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 7, 2017 21:48:34 GMT -5
Keep in mind that one of the investors that recently bought at $6 was the Chairman of the Board. He obviously knows everything that's going on behind the scenes and the future implications of such. It's doubtful it's simply a large dilution as some suggest just to raise more funds. The Chairman would have never made this investment knowing this was in the immediate strategic plans. It's more likely there's something else in the works, possibly another party involved in some way. I wish we knew. I look forward to an announcement and explanation that might come between December 13th, the date of the shareholder vote, and the start of the new year. I'm hoping this board can share other possible reasons for doubling the shares. Yes yes... Apple and Google and Amgen and Bill Gates are forming a partnership to invest $1 Billion dollars in MNKD... that has to be the answer this time. Do we really have to start another thread to speculate about companies willing to step in and invest at orders of magnitude over what they could buy out the entire company at this point? I'm sure management has built some buffer into how many shares they think they will need to sell, but the bottom line is that it is very likely that significant dilution is going to occur. It seems you're merely wishing to hear about some scenario where someone pays way more than they would need to in order to acquire those shares. Who knows, maybe Kent immediately shorted the shares and just pocketed the discount. I'm sure if they hadn't announced any new share creation there'd be people here citing that as meaning there was a partnership about to happen. We KNOW NOTHING because management has chosen to share nothing other than throwing the dilemma of voting to double the shares into our lap. I guess you're the perfect shareholder for management if you blindly assume that this means something great is happening before Christmas. Let's all vote for it so Santa comes down our chimney. [yes, I'm upset this little 50% dilution was glossed over as if nothing]DBC, it remains to be seen if it just gets glossed over, if in fact price is truth and price reacts (not just short term) in stride then it would be telling there is most likely more to the story of just a capital raise for DTC purposes, servicing debt, etc.....Mike mentioned about the monthly interest carry like it was a thorn in his side and used the term optionality with respect to having the additional shares available...how about raising enough capital when advantageous (higher price levels and when appropriate) as opposed to what many felt that prior management was not on the ball with previously which would have alleviated the worst of times regarding needs for R/S etc. Wouldn't it be nice to retire most if not all debt while becoming more cash flow positive within a reasonable amount of time? Mike and Binder seem to want to accelerate the growth and seem confident they can and if it means raising more capital or there are other reasons I wouldn't get upset just yet, after all, no one imagined he would have raised the 57M on roughly 10M shares two mos. ago. Mike seems to adapt his colors well, just like a chameleon |
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