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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 23, 2013 10:26:40 GMT -5
PP: Definitely room for other opinions, hence forth why I trot out mine on the subject. Pretty sure there are a few that will be rolling their eyes thinking there goes OOG again...
But I feel pretty confident that because this was supposed to be a bridging study that we have met the requested clarification of the last CRL and that we got the bonus of the added Type 2 market.
I like to play around with spread sheets and have a couple samples up for public debate (originally discussed at Agoracom) and the links are available here on our site now as well. It turns out that you will need a gmail account to see them, even though I attempted to make them avail (twice) to anyone with the link, but it does not seem to want to stick.
The reason I trot out the above calculation is that I (with numbers from public sources and others at Agoracom) came up with the following potential for MNKD at FDA + 10 years although with a partner I believe that it may be possible in 5 or less (Sorry for the formatting).
Post Approval Y10-----Model 1 (NA)---Model 2 (NA & Euro)---Model 3 (World)
Share Count-----------550,000,000----550,000,000-----------550,000,000 Total Market Size------40,000,000-----75,000,000-----------285,000,000 Market Share-------------------20%------------20%-------------------20% MNKD Market-------------8,000,000-----15,000,000------------57,000,000 Partner EBITA Share---------25.00%------------25%-------------------25% Output Capacity --------8,000,016-----15,000,030------------57,000,114 Dividend Rate ----------------4%-------------4%--------------------4% P/E Ratio ------------18.00----------18.00-----------------18.00 Share Price using P/E-----$120.31--------$257.13---------------$969.80 Dividend--------------------$4.81---------$10.29----------------$38.79
Enjoy,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 23, 2013 9:56:37 GMT -5
Piccolopete:
I would beg to differ in Fudstains calculation of the market cap. The difference now is the potential market has grown by 900%, as the last FDA submission was geared towards Type 1 only submission. So if we want to use his logic of then and now the calculation might be closer to the following:
(Price at pre 2nd FDA Decision / dilution) X increase in market potential * probability of success
=($9.64/ (100% + 300% (warrants))) X (100% (T1) + 900%(T2)) * 80% (trials succeeding phase 3, even high for those stepping up for third time)
=$9.64/4*10 * 80%
=$19.28
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 21, 2013 8:56:24 GMT -5
In reading the Yahoo board came across the following post, thought it might be interesting to discuss it here.
bio.invest bio.invest • 17 hours ago
Al Mann should do what Federico Pignatelli, CEO of another biotech company did to stop short attack Mr. Federico Pignatelli decided to offer dividend a tiny amount ($0.001) per share to activate audit and thus stop the short and start a short squeeze. Call and/or email to IR of MNKD for attention to Mr. Federico Pignatelli's recommendation to small biotech businesses. ---------------------
Part of the SA article ... If a company declares a stock dividend both the naked short seller and the short seller are on the hook to deliver those shares to the lender. This forces the short seller to "buy to cover" so they can return the shares to the lender. Couple this with the typical price appreciation of a dividend announcement and the fact that short sellers can get caught in a stampede that is self perpetuating because all of the short sellers try to "buy and cover" or exit at once. This phenomena is known as a "short squeeze" and drives the share price higher as shorts rush to the exits to close out part or all of their positions or at least whatever is required to satisfy the stock dividend requirement. Stocks with a high percentage of the float sold short are particularly susceptible to this phenomena.
Naked shorting can also effectively be accomplished via an illegal option strategy abusing the market maker exemption for short sales called a "reverse conversion". The SEC has caught onto this scheme and recently put out a "Risk Alert" detailing how to identify this activity but few think this "risk alert" will amount to any additional enforcement. The net result of illegal reverse conversions is a flood of fake shares that the short seller pours onto the open market in an attempt to quash rallies or stifle the stock price. These option pirates would be affected, just like a naked short seller, by a company issuing a stock dividend. Less
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I replied:
"would even give him the $400 to cover the dividend. Bet ya I would make it back a fifty fold in the resulting clown car dismount that would ensue as the short clowns pile out...
This would be a hilarious thing to do...say maybe on a weekly basis?"
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If MNKD granted a dividend of something like $.000001 per share (yahoo posters PFG's suggestion), that would currently amount to about a $400 payout.
Questions to the board: Would this actually be a viable thing to do to keep the shorts in check? How often could it be implemented? How much would it cost per application? Could it be done and then a secondary announced (ATM exercised)?
Enjoy,
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 19, 2013 12:56:55 GMT -5
Liane:
Just tested the second links after logging out from google and they seem to work. Assume this means that you should now be able to see them with or without an account.
Thanks for all the help in setting us up here.
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 19, 2013 8:43:37 GMT -5
If Deerfield can get it that low, I'll be selling myself down on the corner to raise additional funds to increase my current positions or maybe I'll just go and extend the LOC again to the max. At 3.33 I might be tempted to do both...
OOG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 19, 2013 7:52:56 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 18, 2013 21:41:39 GMT -5
Chris:
Thanks for bringing over the links. I was going to do it on Monday when I got back on to the laptop.
I think the readers who follow the links will require a gmail account. The original links were supposed to be open to anyone with the link. If required I can regenerate them.
Thanks,
OOG
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