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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2018 13:42:04 GMT -5
You get the idea; once the company started signaling that they were actively looking for PIPE money anybody who follows this stock knew, or should have known, that a big raise was coming and given the lack of highly positive catalysts in the first quarter, the raise would likely be at a deep discount. Zacks knew this, TheFlyOnTheWall knew this, and you can be sure that a lot of other people figured it out as well. That is also why the PPS dropped from $2.71 the day before the first announcement to $2.20 the day before the PIPE was announced. Sure, the broader market was down a bit as well but MNKD was down more than its beta would predict. So it is almost certain that lots of people were short MNKD in the weeks leading up to the deal, and a lot of those covered and have locked in their profit. Given that, does it matter if the private placement shares themselves were shorted, or not, since all of Wall Street could see what was coming? The signs were there for those who choose to look for them. You got a lot of thumbs up for this post, though I suspect if you'd have spelled it out ahead of time you would have gotten attacked.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2018 13:33:17 GMT -5
The highly anticipated international deal might potentially be announced in the second week of May (ER week 5/7-10), before ASM 5/16 to quell SH revolt. Mnkd is in quiet period unless there is some material event. I wouldn’t rule out 4/9 either. The easiest way to justify the needs for recent dilution would be providing more leverage for Mnkd to hammer out the deal details - assuring potential partners that Mnkd is determined to stay solvent at any cost. That’s what 140M shrs are partially for. That sentence actually makes equal sense striking out the portion as I've done above. No justification needed other than keeping the lights on. They really didn't have a choice.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2018 13:28:07 GMT -5
I wonder if the investors that purchased shares at $6 in the fall were offered and purchased shares this time from Wainwright to average down. I remember seeing that at least one law suit was filed against Wainwright consequent to the shares they purchased at $6. It was a much sweeter deal this time with warrants thrown in, so I imagine it was offered to anyone that was willing to take the phone call.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2018 13:25:44 GMT -5
There sure seems to have been a big reaction to such a small anticipated offering. Small being relative as the decision was made to sell 14M of the 140M newly authorized shares to extend the runway for a brief period to buy some time. Next up, if Mike is correct, we'll see scripts rise and at least one partnership announcement. This should cause the pps to move up. Following this will be the release of the STAT study and hopefully a new and improved marketing push which should also increase the pps. We might then see another 14M offering at a price that should net significantly more than $23.5M. This in conjunction with increasing scripts and the resulting lower burn rate would buy more time plus boost further marketing. IMO Mike's plan is proceeding on track. He certainly doesn't want further dilution as it hurts him also. This should be a great time to buy...maybe even the last time to buy at such a low price. As Warren Buffett said, "Be greedy when others are fearful". GLTA Actually 28 million shares if you are hoping the share price recovers. I don't remember that you were talking about anticipating this. You might have been, but many investors were not. Many right here on PB were talking about all the money that was going to come from "deals" so that selling shares would be unnecessary. So this absolutely took many by surprise. Maybe it would help lessen the surprise factor if certain forums were more welcoming to candid discussions. By my count we're up to about 180 million shares if all the warrants, conversion rights, etc. are executed. A year ago that would have been something like 110 million. Many people would not view that rate of dilution as being "small" amounts. 28 million here, 28 million there and pretty soon we'll have used up the 140M new shares. BTW... I'm not fearful... merely expecting more dilution.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 8, 2018 13:05:09 GMT -5
Questions: 1) Mannkind presents at 7:45 am EDT in US? 2) Is this going to be a rehash of the presentation at the recent Oppenheimer conference? 3) At a conference like this, do they ever make material announcements? I don't think it impossible that there could be a material announcement, but I would say it is quite unlikely. Material events have to be announced as they occur. Timing a material event to announce at an already scheduled meeting is something that would be difficult to do and there would be no reason for it. I suspect mostly a rehash, though I think the recent dilution should be addressed in some way. I don't know how I would handle that if I were in Mike's shoes, but that's why we pay him the big bucks and not me.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 6, 2018 18:06:25 GMT -5
Do you plan on any more dilutive cap raises this year? Hasn't Mike said over and over there will be no dilution necessary? When a CEO puts himself and therefore the company out there and does not follow through, it makes everyone look bad. It is really disheartening. He might have had a way to raise funds without dilution. Better be sure. Now, what does it matter what you ask him? What's the truth for the future? Shareholders are blind. Company is blind. Be honest. Never can get it back. He never said that, though I think many imagined he did. If there was no need for dilution, there wouldn't have been a need to authorize 140 million new shares. As shareholders it would have been unreasonable to assume there wouldn't be some significant dilution after such a large authorization of shares. Mannmade... they likely have no formal "plans" for the next raise. It would be more a plan to offer more shares "if necessary" and it is very likely to be necessary. A better way of asking the question might be whether he believes it likely that further dilution will be avoided for the remainder of the year. I suspect he could not honestly say that is likely, despite probably feeling he could say there are no "plans" at this point for dilution.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 6, 2018 17:18:24 GMT -5
This should not be surprising or shocking to anyone. This is precisely what people voted for when they authorized a doubling of the share count a few months ago. MNKD has literally no other way to secure financing and dilution will continue until they can demonstrate profitability for their drugs, if that can be done at all. This should show you that any deals they expect to close will likely provide little to no funding. I've been slowly trying to cut my losses in the stock over the last few months, and in hindsight, I'm glad I did, even if it cost me several tens of thousands of dollars. So the additional approved shares were not approved for partnerships? I dislike saying it, it looks like Mike C lied regarding that. I know their backs were against the wall, that was the last shareholders meeting. Additionally, why would a shareholders meeting have a time limit, they work for us. Answer our questions. Every one of them. He just said that was one possible use for shares. He didn't lie, though many investors here on proboards certainly did their best to sell an illusion. We're now up to about 180 million shares if all the warrants, conversion rights, employee stock options, etc. are executed. I still believe authorizing 140 million extra was a mistake, as investors are having to price in that management may max out the authorized shares again... and that depresses the price and is self fulfilling in that an offering like this then occurs at a lower price and thus requires more shares. I'm now factoring into my own calculations that we are likely to have at least 225 million outstanding to profitability. Taking Nate's range of $1B to $3B market cap would then yield a price range of $4.44 to $13.33 per share. Personally I think if Afrezza reaches profitability the market cap would be higher than $1B. I might substitute $2B or $8.88 a share as the lower end.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 5, 2018 17:41:26 GMT -5
The question that should be asked is why the Alfred Mann Foundation is refusing to assist the company with "key relationships". Specifically the foundation has given an enormous amount of money to John Hopkins and the Endos at this facility has made no effort to meet with Afrezza sales reps. Instead of the foundation taking the issue head on, they make excuses as to why they can't help. If afrezza is going to be successful this needs to. W addressed. I will not be able to attend but if someone could take this issue head on with the board that would be appreciated. By the way Kent Kresa is on the Alfred Mann foundation board. I believe the only donation to Johns Hopkins was to the Applied Physics lab, and that was some time ago. I seriously doubt the foundation would have any pull with endos within their medical groups. What excuses about not being able to help are you referring to? I don't recall the foundation ever making such statements.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 5, 2018 1:18:16 GMT -5
My next question comes from the movie "Get Shorty" and I find it to be appropriate at this time - IMO Where's Chili Palmer, where's Leo DaVoe, where's my f-----g money. Here's a link to one of the best movies scenes of all time - once again - JMHO www.youtube.com/watch?v=O31rBYqYkuQShorty got your money.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 3, 2018 19:08:47 GMT -5
Lots of drug companies used them, so that shouldn't be a ding against MNKD. It's not as if Nielsen has viewership ratings for doctors' offices, so anyone using this company (or investors) likely had little choice but to trust what they were being told. I was in a doctor's office recently where it appeared they had one of the monitors in the exam room which came from Outcome but seemed to be showing no advertising content. I wonder if somehow the office could defeat the advertising display and whether that had anything to do with the claims that Outcome was defrauding their advertising clients.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 3, 2018 18:53:55 GMT -5
I don't know who is conducting the orchestra, but can they change the repertoire from a "Never ending buying opportunity" suite to something else please... I believe it is actually a fugue in the key of Afrezza major. We are just now getting to the end of the exposition with all of the voices now introduced. Still have a lot of development to go before the cash out coda.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 3, 2018 18:38:12 GMT -5
Many others have DM’d me on Twitter and StockTwits that are also coming. Later on we’ll get a count for reservations for dinner, and we can come up with some questions on here for the meeting... Sports, ask them where the physician boxed configurations are on the website. Jred found one on the Mannkind enrollment form. afrezza.aspnprograms.com/siteforms/Afrezza_enrollment_form.pdfLooks like a rough gig and a difficult work around to find. I could not find them. That form has one section that is rather interesting. The "Start Out Program" with a note that it isn't available to patients covered by state or federal programs... and it appears that the titration packs my only be available within this Start Out Program. Does anyone know what this "Start Out Program" is? and are titration packs really not available to patients covered by Medicare and other government programs?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 1, 2018 3:52:16 GMT -5
Anyone know what forms of advertising we are currently using? We did have Afrezza on like 6,000 or so doctors’ office screens in waiting rooms (don’t recall the number)? We had sponsored the TV show Reversed last summer which I think a sequel will be playing again sometime soon? We did the advertisement in an MLB playoff flyer in the fall and more recently up in lights in the scoreboard area of a hockey game. Facebook, Twitter ? Television in select areas from around October- December I believe. Magazines? Just wondering what we still have going if anything or are we basically just selling with reps? I thought the advertising in docs’ offices was a great idea. Don’t know how much it costs and I wonder how long it lasted. Mike said Afrezza is extremely responsive to advertising, Im guessing by now they know which forms of it are the best and most cost efficient, so we should soon be ready to roll again when we will be able to afford it. I've posted elsewhere that I think advertising may be a mistake. Not only does it cost money, but it might raise patient expectations, and then they find out what it costs and the limitations on insurance coverage. It becomes one more diabetic frustration, and from then on they just ignore it, maybe even forget it exists. In this day and age, you have to start with the chicken or the egg, or both. Insurance isn't going to cover until patients demand it, and patients are going to have a problem when it's hard to get it paid for. Fight from both sides.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 1, 2018 3:44:58 GMT -5
Sayhey, No one is questioning whether or not Afrezza works. The question is whether or not mnkd can figure out how to sell it. You saying "No one is questioning whether or not Afrezza works" to me is another turning point as "The skeptic in me(you) thinks the lost data none of us have seen is similar to the agreement with RLS". I have spoken with many doctors, most will now say they have heard of afrezza but when you talk with them they have little idea what it really is and its benefits. Part of the problem is the experience level of the sales team and being able to explain why afrezza should be the standard of care for most T2s while contrasting the antiglycemics.Then you have the 171 and 175 studies as the "standard" of information for what afrezza is. Read those and take them at face value and I could make a really good argument afrezza is at best a niche drug. Then look at the insurance coverage and cost and its pretty clear why afrezza has not sold. Throw in the lost years with Sanofi and the fact CGM Cloud technology is now starting to be used and it completes the story. It will only take a few clinical situations like what happened with Hilliard where Mike can now showcase the results that hospital group is now having plus some time, IMO about 2 years. The great news for MNKD is no BP has anything in their pipelines which can compete and MNKD now has Dr. Kendall on the team. It's not inexperience. It's the fact that they are constrained by what is on the label.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 1, 2018 3:35:27 GMT -5
Anyway, hope many can make it... I would, but I hate the pointy end of pitchforks.
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