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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 14:03:04 GMT -5
Word of mouth is cheap in the diabetic community. So is that air filled rubber man flapping in the street. Personally, I don't think these clinics can handle a rush of people at the beginning ... so, I wouldn't spend too much on advertising. A few ads would suffice. Did we already confirm that VDex script numbers aren't reported? VDex is just the clinic, they really don't have anything to do with filling scripts. Patients going to see their doctors would still fill scripts through local pharmacies or whatever mail order service their insurance uses. These would be included in Symphony estimates.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 13:53:27 GMT -5
I sold half of my tiny stake at $3.25 today. I'll sell half the remainder if we hit $4 soon. Not 100% certain, butI think I am now ahead in my overall MNKD investment. Yay! Congrats on that! I just sold my May $1.5 calls. I've been burned WAY too many times with calls. I'm just expecting we may drop after the earnings call. Might well be higher by May, but what's the old expression... fool me once shame on me, fool me 8 or more times, shame on me... so being cautious this time. If we shoot up like a rocket before May, I expect some thanks for having caused it Still holding lots of shares as well as lots of Jan 2019 calls.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 13:46:01 GMT -5
Gosh, not sure on that DBC, but maybe you could investigate and get back to the board? Meantime, great news with this announcement. Nice way to begin the week! Cheers. I'm actually right in the heart of where their existing offices are. Probably only a mile from one of them. I haven't encountered any ads, but when one considers all the different possibilities... local cable, radio, newspapers, etc. they well could be running them and I just haven't stumbled on one. I also probably tune out most ads. Even when I'm listening to commercial radio in car I often change stations when it comes to commercial breaks... and most often listen to NPR. Hopefully they have some experience with online marketing.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 13:30:12 GMT -5
That's good news.
Does anyone know if VDEX does any local advertising where they have locations... or targeted online marketing?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 12:04:19 GMT -5
Moscow at night? Then what's with the pyramid in the image? Moscow has pyramids? Scratch that. Didn't see it in the corner. Maybe that's the closest to the Kremlin he can actually get and is dealing with intermediaries someplace else? Where is this image from, anyways? Maybe he's just toying with the minds of his shareholders who he knows have an addiction to "connecting dots"
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2018 17:10:53 GMT -5
International expansion seems to be the theme of Mike's new Twitter along with the new wife. Nice! twitter.com/castagna2011What has he tweeted?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2018 15:07:54 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... rather than arguing, I dug through the board to find the thread where people started posting about seeing the ads. The first sighting was Nov 28. That might not have been the absolute first airing, but I suspect it was within a few days of when they started running, not weeks after. I would assume that the Trep IND will be accepted, as they've said the meetings with FDA were very positive... and would occur whenever the date is that the FDA must conclude the review. I don't know when that is. " But even if Tuesday comes and goes with no international partnership announcement, know that I will still believe that the partnership announcements are near-term, and that we'll receive upfront cash from the partners who get the most out of the deal (those who get rights in the largest and most profitable countries / markets)." I think there are many here that share this faith... and have held the view it is near-term for a long, long while. It would be great if this belief does pan out sometime soon. I'll be jumping with joy and I imagine the share price would jump as well.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2018 14:46:29 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... I don't think TV adverts started as soon as you state, and looking at revenue rather than scripts you're seeing the effects of a price increase that occurred during that period. Look at NRx to see trend in how many new patients are being added (the number stated is actually not all new patients but at least useful for trend observation). Hopefully the regional Symphony data shows the adverts drive scripts, but I don't think the national data shows it. Hope your speculation is correct. Cash is sorely needed, so any upfront payment would be very useful. If it is for equity (diluting us), the question is whether it's at market value or at a discounted price (and how much). They do have a limit of how much equity they can offer at a discount in any 6 month period. You said "And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him." Did he say that? When was that... in the Noblecon talk? That's not something I recall. Just curious. Given you had an "if" I wasn't sure if you actually heard that or just thinking he might have said it. [br I know I am repeating myself..but when I hear you say thing like “WE” and “US” when talking about MNKD longs..to only see you subsequently challenge or rebut ALL positive comments about your “investment ”...just makes ZERO logical sense to me..if you’re short, I’m fine with that, up till now, your side is winning..just cut the “we” stuff out Your logic unit is faulty. You fail to consider that some people see reality and don't feel a constant need to try to deceive themselves or others with illusions that everything is perfect regarding MNKD and Afrezza's journey to market. I assure you, in the world of investing it is not at all uncommon for a shareholder to be concerned about difficulties a company is facing. Many times it is the hope that the difficulties can be overcome that the shareholder sees as an investment opportunity when they feel the current share price reflects mainly the difficulties without reflecting the potential to overcome them.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 24, 2018 16:25:28 GMT -5
What is always reassuring to me is that while there is almost an “arms race” for medical sensing devices is the fact that there is only one best in class (actually only in class) Afrezza to handle meal time insulin. What's a bit worrying is that was true when it was approved by the FDA and yet in the ensuing years the sales have been almost non existent compared to the entire prandial market. Hopefully the barriers are being removed.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 24, 2018 15:37:52 GMT -5
tarheelblue004 ... I don't think TV adverts started as soon as you state, and looking at revenue rather than scripts you're seeing the effects of a price increase that occurred during that period. Look at NRx to see trend in how many new patients are being added (the number stated is actually not all new patients but at least useful for trend observation). Hopefully the regional Symphony data shows the adverts drive scripts, but I don't think the national data shows it. Hope your speculation is correct. Cash is sorely needed, so any upfront payment would be very useful. If it is for equity (diluting us), the question is whether it's at market value or at a discounted price (and how much). They do have a limit of how much equity they can offer at a discount in any 6 month period. You said "And if Mike said publicly that there's nothing coming out in the next 10 years that can compete with us, I believe him." Did he say that? When was that... in the Noblecon talk? That's not something I recall. Just curious. Given you had an "if" I wasn't sure if you actually heard that or just thinking he might have said it.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 20:40:55 GMT -5
sayhey24... I believe that paper came out before Afrezza, so they aren't going to mention it. Hopefully MNKD can eventually do trials to show Afrezza can slow or even stop progression. As for what causes the loss of beta cells, that is the paragraph I quoted. It describes a sequence of events that occur. This would not apply to whatever portion of people simply were not diagnosed as having an auto-immune disease (whether you wish to call all auto-immune T1s or call some LADA because they were not recognized as having auto-immune disease until later in life). Here is the cascade that applies to most T2s (non auto-immune) and why obesity is a main predictor of T2 diabetes. You'll notice the beginning of this chain of events is "excessive carbohydrate and fat intake causes..." As for Afrezza, the question would be where in this chain should it be inserted if the goal is to halt or reverse (if possible). Can beta cell gene expression changes be reversed, etc.? If those questions were looked at in all the unpublished MNKD clinical trials, hopefully they will some day come out... or there will be new ones that do look at it. "Thus, in type 2 adipogenic diabetes, excessive carbohydrate and fat intake causes hyperinsulinemia in association with increased hepatic lipoprotein secretion, adipose tissue growth, and increased free fatty acid levels in genetically susceptible individuals. Together with episodes of postprandial hyperglycemia, elevated free fatty acid levels cause muscle and liver insulin resistance and increase hepatic glucose production. The same stimuli also facilitate β-cell compensation by promoting insulin secretion and biosynthesis as well as β-cell growth. In late stages, however, the progressive rise in insulin resistance, combined with alterations in β-cell gene expression and signaling induced by rising levels of free fatty acids, cause β-cell failure. Overt diabetes occurs as a result of this β-cell decompensation, with altered insulin secretion and apoptosis as possible contributing factors."
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 19:49:53 GMT -5
Mike Castagna at NobleCon (~4 weeks ago): “We’re working on international expansion. They just take time but that should be done soon.” It's minutes 22:58 - 23:02 of the webex posted to the Mannkind website; link below. It's also not the first time that Mike mentioned that they are contracting with partners but it just takes time. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dDBC...I'm curious as to whether you personally believe that we will see international partnership deals, let's say in the next 2 months (though I think we'll have at least one announced on Tuesday). When you talk about 'hopium' and years of no partnerships, one may think you don't believe we'll enter any deals soon. Though you do stop short of stating that. Which is probably wise as our current CEO has been literally checking boxes off a checklist, has International Expansion as the next box on the list, and says at a conference that the deals will be done soon. Looking forward to your response See my post just above with the comment from MNKD about international deals likely not being attractive before they show viability in US. It appears we don't have any new doctors writing scripts since 6 months ago. So if viability wasn't proven back then, it seems little has changed. I personally don't think there would be a deal with any significant upfront money in the next 2 months. If they are willing to do another deal with no upfront, that may well be possible. We know they turned a deal down for Middle East. Who knows, maybe they even changed their mind about that. I don't think it's a lack of ability to do deals, just lack of ability to get the cash they so desperately need.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 19:36:41 GMT -5
Mike Castagna at NobleCon (~4 weeks ago): “We’re working on international expansion. They just take time but that should be done soon.” It's minutes 22:58 - 23:02 of the webex posted to the Mannkind website; link below. It's also not the first time that Mike mentioned that they are contracting with partners but it just takes time. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dDBC...I'm curious as to whether you personally believe that we will see international partnership deals, let's say in the next 2 months (though I think we'll have at least one announced on Tuesday). When you talk about 'hopium' and years of no partnerships, one may think you don't believe we'll enter any deals soon. Though you do stop short of stating that. Which is probably wise as our current CEO has been literally checking boxes off a checklist, has International Expansion as the next box on the list, and says at a conference that the deals will be done soon. Looking forward to your response I would like MannKind to announce “Afrezza has been approved in Brazil, and EU approval is expected in the next 3 months”. The EU partner competition is underway, and the winner will be announced on the same day as Afrezza’s approval. The expectation is there will be significant upfront money... Back in Oct they weren't even showing EU as one of their immediate targets. They certainly haven't announced filing for approval. So they are way, way further off for approval. It would likely be 18 to 24 months away minimum. As for expectation for upfront money, I'd provide you with a quote: "While discussions with international partners are ongoing, we are not able to project a timeline for any deal. We are necessarily concentrating on the US market first, both because of limited bandwidth and because it is unlikely that an attractive international deal would be finalized before we are able to demonstrate the viability of the product in the US."
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 19:28:44 GMT -5
One pill makes you larger, and one pill makes you small And the ones that mother gives you, don't do anything at all
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 23, 2018 15:04:34 GMT -5
The date is very meaningful. 7 represents good fortune and putting a 2 in front of it is like doubling that. Clearly they are trying to send a signal to us. This is about as strong of a buy signal as I've ever seen for a stock. We've been foolish in the past to think that each conference call was going to be the one... but this time it just feels different... well, actually the same, but it's a good feeling so let's run with it for the weekend. Of course load up on those Mar 2nd call options... and/or lotto tickets. I’m thinking “dreamboat” refers to a new marijuana product, and someone has been heavily testing it. I can’t remember the last time buying before a CC has worked out... But good luck 😉 Hmmm... darn, are you also implying that going to the quickie mart stoned just now and using all my mortgage money to buy lotto tickets (and $50 worth of junk food) was NOT a wise investment choice? That can't be right... let me take a hit off the ole hopium pipe, that always clears my head.
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