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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 20:13:45 GMT -5
I have listened to a lot of these calls for a lot of years and IMO this was the best I have heard. I think today marks a turning point for the company. The biggest news I heard on the call was they found the 60+ studies which Al Mann did and Dr. Kendall not only read them but is putting a plan together to release them. That is huge. While he did not say it I suspect these studies had a great deal to do with why Dr. Kendall came to MNKD. Al left no stone un-turned and concluded afrezza should be the standard of care for all T2s from the first day they are diagnosed. If only I had a nickle for every turning point we've had with this company.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 20:10:13 GMT -5
Could be wrong but thought I heard Mike say they have two term sheets for international deals, one of which will likely be announced in the first half of 2018. Hopefully before May calls Also that upfront or milestone payments are included which he would know if he has term sheets in hand. For those who aren't familiar, a term sheet is simply a brief outline of a deal agreed to by both parties to use to negotiate final details. There's no rule-of-thumb on how long it might take to go from term sheet to contract. It could be days, weeks or months. Regardless, this was good news. I thought he said upfront AND milestone. Will need to listen again. If it's OR I'll be disappointed. That mention of upfront was the highlight of the call in my opinion, so hope it doesn't go poof with an "or".
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 20:05:34 GMT -5
With respect to Mike's comment about having a signed term sheet and hoping to have another soon, does anybody have experience regarding how long it takes to go from having a signed term sheet to having a finalized deal? In my field it usually doesn't take more than a few weeks... but I've never done deals with a public company that were significant enough to require BoD approval.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 18:43:42 GMT -5
Burned through all my flags in the after-hours. At least Mannkind is alive for the year. It will be interesting if it can hold 2.50 tomorrow. If not... IMHO, so much of the price changes are psychological warfare. Was today’s conference call so bad that it warrants a drop of 13% after hours on 300,000 shares? I don’t think it was. But the shorts love to play mind games that demoralize long term share holders. I have seen this time and time again. Although there was no out of the park announcement, the management team for MannKind could not be better in my opinion. That was proven in today’s cc. We will just have to ride this out like we have dozens of other times. MannKind will succeed in the long run. It may also be that the "true longs" (drawing a distinction between this group and people that merely own shares of MNKD) play mind games with themselves, setting unrealistic expectations that then disappoint. People like MK, and some here, setting the expectation of roaring share price and some grand reveal. Is it any wonder the share price has come down once that illusion is burst. Yes, Mannkind will succeed in the long run.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 18:34:05 GMT -5
Did anyone really think MNKD would be up after the CC? Currently down 10% I think there were many here thinking we'd be soaring. After all, the date of the CC was a little earlier than previously done, so that had to mean something fantastic was to be announced.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 18:24:17 GMT -5
I think that miss was expected so I doubt it will have much impact. I think it is now getting digested. I certainly would wait to see if there was a binary type event broadcast on the call. None so the price is now going down. $2.50 in a week or two. At least I sold my May calls yesterday Though wish we weren't going down
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 18:22:13 GMT -5
Shoot, we missed an opportunity to do a poll on what the 2018 guidance would be. I suspect there would have been some way higher than what it turned out to be.
I'm I remembering correctly that at some point Mike said he would be giving guidance on revenue and timeline for profitability?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 18:13:57 GMT -5
CVS deal lets MNKD get patients from BCBS in CA and HI onto Afrezza. Not a big deal and wont move the needle much. There is still another step of convincing these insurance organizations, such as CA BCBS to add Afrezza to their formularies. I think those two were just examples... though possibly MNKD is hinting at ones they are close to signing on.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 18:10:44 GMT -5
what exactly is the deal with CVS that Mike was talking about? A deal with the Pharmacy Benefit Management arm of CVS (Caremark). Means they've agreed on pricing, rebates, etc. Now they have to go to the insurers that use Caremark and convince them to add Afrezza to their formularies. That's my read FWIW.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 16:55:04 GMT -5
I don't see the shoutbox. Is this problem unique to me?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 16:44:03 GMT -5
I guess the guidance miss, which many expected, isn't causing much alarm.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 14:25:00 GMT -5
Servier? Come on, if we're dreaming up partnerships from thin air let's dream big... a conglomerate partnership of Amgen, Apple, Amazon... and let's throw in Paul Allen for good measure. They all start with "A". That couldn't be a coincidence.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 27, 2018 14:14:44 GMT -5
Really looking forward to hearing what David Kendall has to say today! I'm guessing he says he's really excited about joining MNKD and thinks that Afrezza has potential to be a blockbuster. He'll also talk about status of Afrezza clinical trials and the TS pipeline.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 19:25:21 GMT -5
Maybe tomorrow we finally learn what Mike C discussed with David Kendall during the interview process that could not be made public at that time. If only known public information was relied upon, few would have suggested Dr. Kendall leave Lilly so there must be more. I'll be glad to hear any news beyond earnings. But even if we don't learn anything, we can at least hold onto that hope for a good 6 or 9 months. That seems to be a normal cycle for expecting a big announcement because of (fill in the blank)... and by then we'll have some other dots to connect.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 26, 2018 17:30:16 GMT -5
I’m not seeing a breakout yet. The volume says “look at me” but it doesn’t say “buy me” (yet). A nice CC would definitely help, but we’d need some BIG news. A positive update on Brazil could do it... an Afrezza partner getting off their ass would be novel. The next news on Brazil would be that their regulator has approved it. Perhaps someone else knows whether we are at the time that it might be expected. It would still seem strange to have that happen right when a earnings call needs to happen. To me that doesn't seem "big" like the FDA approval was. I'm assuming that approval in due course is already baked into the expectations, with delay or denial being the surprise outcome.
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