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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 18:18:21 GMT -5
I cannot believe that in today’s world any CEO, even one of a small company such as ours, is firing off tweets that aren’t fully vetted and planned by an internal compliance/marketing team is some kind. Something is cooking. Based on some of the things that have been tweeted by large company CEOs, I don't even think they have all this vetting and such. But definitely something must be cooking... we've talked about it for so many years, how could it not be.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 18:14:12 GMT -5
Discussions are pushing towards change, but the LA times article shows just how complicated a state created single payer healthcare system would be. www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/soapbox/article190439374.html“Cost containment” was the buzz phrase at the hearing, but let patients beware. Private insurers cut costs by restricting networks of doctors and hospitals, limiting choices of prescription drugs, denying claims and by requiring pre-treatment authorizations and high deductibles to discourage patients from getting the care they need. This is where Afrezza is left out of the loop by many private insurers. Mike might really be in close contact with individuals about reforms coming out of Sacramento and might not be too scared to proclaim his opinion with private insurers demise coming soon in California. I know a lot of people in healthcare here in CA, and I don't know of any that really think single payer is going to happen. Perhaps they are in denial, but I tend to think it isn't politically possible.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 16:26:31 GMT -5
Hopefully that was well considered on his part and not impulsive. Some of Al's criticism about the FDA may well have contributed to problems that were encountered. Having the ability to speak truth to power is an asset, especially when coupled with the wisdom to know when not to do it.Very insightful, DBC.
I can think of 3 things (individually, or in combination) that may have prompted Mike's tweet as worded:
1. The "large insurer" that was to start providing much better coverage for Afrezza in January perhaps didn't. 2. There could be a plan to somehow be less dependent upon the large insurance payers for Afrezza's success. 3. Mike "lost it" and spoke in a way he shouldn't have.
Personally, I discount #3 since Mike has given every indication that he is a thoughtful professional that carefully considers what he says.
Although #1 may well turn out to be true, my gut feeling is that #2 is the real reason. I agree that the timing of Dr. K's hiring is (hopefully) more than just coincidental on this front.
It seems that the "large insurer" (or PBM) thing did happen but it wasn't exactly what we had assumed. From Mike's comments it seems some agreement was concluded, but it didn't get Afrezza on their "national" formulary, it merely gave MNKD the ability to now go to individual plan sponsors in various states and try to get Afrezza on each formulary. I really don't know enough about how all of it works to know whether this is what should have been expected or whether this was not the desired outcome but he's just putting the best face on it that he can. It certainly disappointed me. It would seem unlikely that MNKD can be the business success we wish it to be without being dependent on large insurance payers. That is simply where the money is. Very few patients could afford Afrezza for all their meals if not for having insurance that shifts those costs to other healthier patients in the risk pool. That would be true even if MNKD slashed the price in half.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 15:11:06 GMT -5
How many subscribers would it take to create a Diabetes Advantage program (a lot like supplemental prescription insurance for medicare)? An independent, possibly non-profit organization that enables physicians and patients to get the care they need. I know nothing about how this might work, but the idea came to me while watching re-runs of Deal or No Deal. I figured it had to be a good idea. That would be a very expensive risk pool so the idea of having it be self funded doesn't seem viable. I'm guessing that you would hope that it would use better standards of care and thus reduce long term costs. That might be true, but there would still be the issue of where to shift money away from in order to subsidize it such that premiums for that risk pool today would be affordable to them.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 13:56:21 GMT -5
Hopefully that was well considered on his part and not impulsive.
Some of Al's criticism about the FDA may well have contributed to problems that were encountered. Having the ability to speak truth to power is an asset, especially when coupled with the wisdom to know when not to do it.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 13:41:33 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 12:02:03 GMT -5
I like watching the Shark Tank. One of the biggest advantages of having a shark on your team is that business leaders take their phone calls. If Special K calls up the heads of the insurance companies and the physician groups he will probably get through. It would be difficult for anyone else at mnkd to do that, including Mike. I know the penchant for nicknames here, but at best that is a carb heavy bland breakfast cereal and probably more known by many below a certain age as the street name for an illicit drug. So it does sound like a drug pusher name, just not of a legal drug.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2018 11:53:11 GMT -5
When Al was living he always treated Afrezza as the next gold standard of diabetes care. His crowning achievment in his stories career as an inventor and businessman. Which brings me to the question, was Al unliked by other BP's? Thus making a buyout/buy in almost impossible. As he would have been unwilling to give total control to another for his namesake, Mannkind. Which brings us to the present and 3+ years from Afrezza's initial debut. The majority of Al's management is gone, the doubts about Afrezza's efficacy have largely been put to rest, and we have Mike and co leading the way. Do these events and new faces help to bring BPs back to the negotiating table? It's ludicrous to think that no BP has interest in being part of the newest and possibly the best treatment in diabetes. Thoughts. I'll simply avoid commenting as it seems you might be looking for confirmation rather than discussion, given you are labeling those not agreeing as ludicrous upfront
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 11, 2018 18:51:25 GMT -5
True enough... if you consistently believe that something is going to happen tomorrow, assuming it ever does you will eventually be right. I'm looking forward to when my "chalky, pessimistic fire" is doused. Actually I think it's more a marginally optimistic but realist bed of embers... but don't wish to mince metaphors. I'd also refer you back to a just prior post in this thread by me... "Quite the contrary... I think this is a really good hire. I think the departure of our past CMO might have raised some questions, as expressed by some here... I think I stated not to read too much into it. This hire certainly I think more than overcomes any negativity related to having his predecessor quit, likely just because of his own career development which was more linked to oncology. " So perhaps you're being a bit nitpicking if you think your "significant" hire means something radically different from my "really good hire". "but don't wish to mince metaphors." The only mincing done is by you, when you chop and mix your posts! One does not "mince" metaphors, the phrase is "mix metaphors." Gosh, I hope you've not used that term in everyday speaking or writing. Hey, dbc, just funin' you, we all do malaprops, and silly spelling errors, too, but I thought you'd like to know that one for the future. You went to that cross town school in the ritzy area? Really? LOL!! Look, I poke as much fun at MNKD as anyone, but your style is so much more, more, what is it, .... sinister, whereas mine is light and breezy (should be in a song, eh?). Whether you like it or not, it was what I intended to write. I am certainly not immune to typos and mistakes, but that was not one of them. Sometimes I go for unique rather than mundane. Surely you've seen that in many of my posts here. I read a lot so I appreciate interesting use of language. As for you seeing sinister, that is certainly in the eye of the beholder. I know many here do not see that... and there is no agenda I have other than intelligent dialogue regarding MNKD. It doesn't particularly bother me that some here are intent on finding enemies to lash out at. It has been a rough ride with MNKD. There is no sinister meaning hidden in the spaces between the words when I say this was a good hire for MNKD. I'm quite pleased by it. I think it reflects well on MNKD, and people in the diabetes community will view it as such. Period, full stop. I don't intend to get into the speculative argument about his personal decision process coming to MNKD, as reading minds from a distance is not within my skill set. Of course I'm just "funin" as well.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 11, 2018 15:48:40 GMT -5
Funny. Board is spreading bad words about the marriage of Kendall and MNKD. Seems everyone is saying this is a good catch for MNKD.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 11, 2018 1:49:17 GMT -5
DBC, you've poured enough water on this stock over the years to douse any fuse. And you play it safe, by going with the chalk (the favorite, for those of you who don't gamble); that is, MNKD has had a rough go of it, so the easiest thing to predict is continued bumpiness. This hire is significant, whether any fuse is lit or not, remains to be seen, but one of these days the optimists just may be right. And that one time, is going to douse your chalky, pessimistic fire. True enough... if you consistently believe that something is going to happen tomorrow, assuming it ever does you will eventually be right. I'm looking forward to when my "chalky, pessimistic fire" is doused. Actually I think it's more a marginally optimistic but realist bed of embers... but don't wish to mince metaphors. I'd also refer you back to a just prior post in this thread by me... "Quite the contrary... I think this is a really good hire. I think the departure of our past CMO might have raised some questions, as expressed by some here... I think I stated not to read too much into it. This hire certainly I think more than overcomes any negativity related to having his predecessor quit, likely just because of his own career development which was more linked to oncology. " So perhaps you're being a bit nitpicking if you think your "significant" hire means something radically different from my "really good hire".
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 11, 2018 1:26:11 GMT -5
If you don’t think that the fuse has been lit, to set off the bomb then you better sell your stock today. ‘All I can say is Mike you magnificent CEO you found the holy Grail in this CMO selection” I really don’t have any words... except completely agree!! So when people here thought the fuse was lit 2 years ago, they were mistaken... it's only been lit now, or is it a very slow burning fuse? And goodness you don't want all of us that believe in the long term, but don't believe in a "bomb" to sell, because that would really crater the price. The "bomb" believers aren't that many.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 10, 2018 20:17:23 GMT -5
“Do we want to be just an insulin provider that just goes into a system, or do we want to be the integrator of the system?” Enrique Conterno, head of Lilly’s diabetes business, told the WSJ. “To me, it’s clear where the business is going.” As Conterno sees it, failing to diversify beyond insulin and into drug delivery systems would lead to Lilly’s diabetes business becoming “obsolete.” Reading this article clearly hints of a possible Mannkind dot that might soon be connected. As always, we'll wait and see. If I had a nickle for every dot that has been seen over the years, I wouldn't even need the stock price to be higher.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 10, 2018 14:29:49 GMT -5
One more month till funding is announced... my guess. 140mil at $2 is my bet. 6-8 quarters of funding. It would be nice to see 140mil at $6.... that would give mnkd 3 years with a decent ad campaign. I have no idea how they would pull another run to $7-8 out of the hat especially with scripts falling off for the last 5 weeks. Maybe the Mann Group will forgive the debt... that would make the needle jump. Matt has stated here that there is a limit of 20% of float every six months without a specific shareholder vote. So nothing close to 140mil shares can be done.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 10, 2018 14:13:11 GMT -5
Please don't let this board devolve into the Yahoo board where every time the wind blew it meant a buy-out was just around the corner. The corner never turned. Why can't we just accept the fact that Mike made a great hire and see where the path forward leads. We already had one person here who lost credibility due to them being so certain that our acquisition was just a matter of time. Let it go and see how things unfold. Surely not. Believing in an imminent acquisition at unthinkably large premium to current share price is one of the tenants of faith in the church of MNKD.
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