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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 16:26:15 GMT -5
And DBC - I had a very different take on your last notable quote. As I heard it Mike was addressing near term debt payments "not as an overhangs, but as possibilities to continue push out to give us the runway we need". As in push outside of the 3 year window he was trying to clear for operations to grow. But in no way was it a good thing or that he was "tickled pink" to have them. Yes, that was what was said. But that's like someone that has maxed out all of their credit cards and has little income blithely saying that they view each new credit card bill as a great possibility to improve the situation, possibly renegotiating payment terms. Yeah, from a self help perspective, it's good to make the best of any bad situation and stay positive, but debt is bad not good, and it is an overhang financially speaking. Getting hit by a car is a possibility to heal... hopefully a possibility, like having a company with such burdensome debt load needing constant renegotiation, that I shall never experience [sorry, I need some anti-sarcastic pills today ]
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:57:16 GMT -5
Exactly, Sports. If you're going to throw in raw materials why not add the plant and other manufacturing expense under the guise of "debt"? Purchases are a part of COGS and not near- or long-term debt. These obligations aren't quite like expenses that are constant from quarter to quarter. There is no need to conflate the two, but certainly talking about these LARGE upcoming purchase obligations makes sense when talking about similar balance sheet obligations such as debt. And given that we are no where near needing all the insulin that is obligated, much of it would not be COGS. It is only COGS sold to the extent it is actually used in sold product.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:51:20 GMT -5
Mike said Mannkind will file in Mexico, Canada and Europe this year without a partner. Mexico and Canada make sense logistically. Europe is probably more difficult to find a partner for, so they will just file to move it forward on their own... There was a "potentially" attached to Europe. With regard to those countries' filings he said "plans are on the docket to get off the ground this year". Does that mean actually filing by end of year or just working on the process this year?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:46:07 GMT -5
Good points, But he knows what kind of dilution they’re talking about in the articles and he knows what we mean when we say it. But yes, sounds like it’s going to be used for the debt and the dept didn’t seem anywhere near what’s been posted on this board. Even if expanding beyond what precisely was said and trying to read more into it, which might be unwise... the Motley Fool article I believe he was referring to with regard to amount of dilution merely says "The company is thus bound to continue diluting shareholders ad infinitum." So given that they engaged in hyperbole, Mike actually could then truthfully say he has no such plans, i.e. no plans for infinite dilution, even if he felt moderate/meaningful/significant (with no particular definition for any of these terms) dilution was still likely.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:23:04 GMT -5
It still seems like the exhibited confidence about financing has no meat behind it. On the one hand he basically was saying "nothing to worry about" but then he also stated that having debt due every quarter was something that worried him (or something to that effect). Seems it's been hinted that they don't view deals on pipeline API are worth doing without at least Phase 1 trials. International deals likely would seem to be regional and probably no significant upfront payments at this point. No hint of any partnership in US that would involve investment. Seems they will be at the mercy of share offerings and debt to equity conversions for the feasible future. While they may be able to pull that off without ruinous dilution, being in that position isn't to me a risk free position. I haven't listened to the presentation.. But the slide on the debt due is different from the Kastenes thread (MNKD commitments)? mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9456/commitments?page=2#ixzz55hNCQ8yo Here is a breakdown of MannKind's commitments through 2023:
2018 $30,800,000
2019 $45,450,000
2020 $19,000,000
2021 $122,356,000
2022 $23,700,000
2023 $23,700,000
From the slide, 2018 ~ 20million 2019 ~ 30million 2020 ~ 80million 2020 Q1 is the biggest one, but with Mann group, and I hope they would work with the company. Looks like I'm missing something? That apart.. Mike is definitely doing an awesome job with what he has. But, the biggest thing is the deal with PBM (whatever it is). All others are almost too inconsequential in the near future (1-2 years). That and whatever increase they can get in the scripts. * Any partnership for TreT will not bring in enough money. (1-2 years) * RLS is still a long way to go. (1-2 years) * Pediatric thing is still going on. (1-2 years??) * Brazil is more than a year away. US took/taking so many years to bring in any revenue. Can't expect Brazil to start buying in millions from day 1. * India, China (low hanging fruit IMHO) are still in planning(?). I want MNKD to succeed - dont get me wrong. But, growing scripts in US is the only thing that can save us. Looks like very closely working with Vdex may be a very good idea. Of course, IMHO. I believe he included insulin purchase obligations, which are not on Mike's "debt" slide. I wouldn't consider that deceptive as it clearly says debt at the top, but certainly investors need to consider the entire picture including contractual purchase obligations. Though I can't vouch for the accuracy of the numbers posted here.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:20:21 GMT -5
Didn’t he say no plans for dilution, and we aren’t going bankrupt. I believe he was referring to certain people in certain articles:-) And the pediatric trials are moved forward! Yes:-)) I went back to that section on finance. Here are things I heard. He talks about cutting expenses saying "we can slow down hiring, we can slow down marketing... so we have a little bit of control over our own destiny". Immediately followed by "There's a Motley Fool article saying the company is going to go bankrupt and dilute everybody... that's just no where in our plans, so we can put the rumors to rest, and rest assured we've got a plan for success not failure." The last part is kinda a silly fluff statement. No company plans to fail. As for the dilution it appears all he is saying if one looks at the actual sentence as delivered is that dilution through bankruptcy is not in the current plan. It would be going beyond the sentence to assume no future dilution. It would seem dilution for debt conversion and working capital is very likely, both from what can be seen that they are doing and from the share authorization. And he also gave us another notable MNKD quote... he looks at the outstanding debt not as overhangs but as possibilities... that quote I'd certainly rank as having eye roll possibility. Sorry... half joking, but only half... think it's pushing it a bit to go beyond "I can handle this" to "I'm tickled pink by having such a damaged balance sheet".
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 14:03:30 GMT -5
It still seems like the exhibited confidence about financing has no meat behind it. On the one hand he basically was saying "nothing to worry about" but then he also stated that having debt due every quarter was something that worried him (or something to that effect).
Seems it's been hinted that they don't view deals on pipeline API are worth doing without at least Phase 1 trials. International deals likely would seem to be regional and probably no significant upfront payments at this point. No hint of any partnership in US that would involve investment. Seems they will be at the mercy of share offerings and debt to equity conversions for the feasible future. While they may be able to pull that off without ruinous dilution, being in that position isn't to me a risk free position.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 12:34:24 GMT -5
I give Mike high marks for the tone and professionalism of the presentation.
Would still have liked much more detail... but wasn't really expecting it.
One thing that was made explicit is that they are planning to have direct sales force focus on endos and plan to partner with someone that has large underutilized sales force calling on PCP. Reading between the lines on one of Mike's statements it seems they might be waiting on getting updated titration instructions worked out before putting in place a PCP oriented partnership. Leaves one to wonder if that is possible short of another lengthy label update.
With regard to international, he did indicate several countries where they plan to file on their own rather than partnering (including EU and Canada, I believe). This statement would seem a clear indication that at least as of now there is no serious consideration of one of the big pharmas becoming a partner. This seems consistent with prior talk of regional partners.
Looking forward to hearing others' thoughts after they watch the presentation.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 11:53:13 GMT -5
Info they have on "non retail" sales seems to indicate weekly and monthly updates. The way "non retail" seems to be used I would think might amount to non trivial portion of the market. HMO captive pharmacies for instance would include all of Kaiser (though most of the Kaiser regions aren't using Afrezza). If weekly script numbers don't include all these "non retail" that would be interesting, though end of the day the historic conversion ratio between Symphony weekly numbers vs Mannkind reported corporate revenue takes that into account. symphonyhealth.com/product/nonretailsource/
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 11:38:16 GMT -5
Look at the updated map: It includes many European countries now that require substantial new trials. Guess who is going to sponsor those? CO-PROMOTION partner in place shortly! Curious. I hate to be skeptical... well, not really. I wonder how much of this map business is stage craft. So now, since Cantor presentation, they've added Europe, Turkey, Southeast Asia, New Zealand and North Africa as "focus". Is that progress? Were there actual accomplishments on the map they were focusing on earlier? If the more narrow focus didn't result in concrete accomplishment, is broadening the focus the best course of action? What does it even mean to focus on certain countries... would they turn down any credible offer? Maybe they said something in the presentation to give meaning/weight to the map exercise, beyond just demonstrating an ability to color within the lines (pardon the sarcasm). Did they at least recommit to being filed in regions covering greater than 50% of world's population by end of year? I suppose I should look at these presentations in a different light, that they ostensibly are meant to introduce new investors to MNKD, not necessarily crafted as updates to current investors... but lacking in other updates, we investors tend to treat them as such. It is all too easy to project something into nuances such as additional shaded countries on the map... and quite frankly I have no idea whether that is management conveying real info, engaging in smoke and mirrors or something in between.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 0:41:42 GMT -5
Instead of graphs about increasing cartridges, I really would have liked a graph showing an increasing number of doctors prescribing ("writers"). It's good they got the packaging issue sorted out, but they have to start increasing the prescriber base.
And as for RLS... seems only meaningful thing would be some indication of when and how much another milestone payment might be due.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 16:53:41 GMT -5
Perhaps it is fitting that fasting, wine and aspirin has been worked into the MNKD investor manifesto
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 11:49:06 GMT -5
That's good news. Wonder if we'll get more info on potential timeline of trials soon.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 10:40:23 GMT -5
Seems lack of real time access with lack of PR means nothing material coming out in the talk. Hey, DBC, there's that negativity again. Tell me then, why is the SP currently at $3.22? Ah, coming back down now - $3.11 Who's that Ken Cooper? Does anyone have access to him? We need a fly on the wall. I don't view that as negativity. It's merely an observation about logical conclusion of facts in front of us. As for the volatility in share price... I would suspect just traders chasing short term gains.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 10:14:36 GMT -5
Seems lack of real time access with lack of PR means nothing material coming out in the talk.
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