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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 1:33:08 GMT -5
I bet Spencer (for hire) Osborn will hit overnight as will LFD he has been quiet for a bit. I wish someone would pay me to pump or trash a stock... if it weren't for a certain sense of integrity I'm sure I'd be good at either.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 1:30:39 GMT -5
"At least part of MannKind stock surge yesterday could be attributed to the short selling community. As of the most recent reporting period, some 32.9 million MNKD shares were sold short. This accumulation of bearish bets represents a whopping 45.5% of MannKind’s total float, or shares available for public trading." Whoa ... isn't that what I said earlier today? You mean I could be putting out a news letter and making $$$?Anyway, newbie shorts are like newbie longs ... to all longs ... you have to know that setting those sell orders will only cause you to lose the high potential to fortunes if those sell orders are set too low. If you are a day trader, then I can see you doing that ... but, it might be better to see where the market is going before you do it. If you have a day job ... then, it might not be possible. If you are a full time day trader, then you would know better anyway. Just know ... that MNKD shares are now on a long growth pattern and setting sell orders low will only allow the shorts a way out. Think about it ... It's always hard to find advice from people that actually make money in the markets. Most of the ones that do rarely end up writing news letters. If you lucked into one thing correct, that's when you should write a news letter
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 29, 2018 1:25:24 GMT -5
Thanks, Sports. It's good to see such an upbeat MNKD forecast that is looking at the big picture from such a different perspective. Here's my favorite line: Moreover, presence of major key players of dry powder inhaler such as Mannkind Corporation is believed to flourish the growth of dry powder inhaler market in North America region. That is a good line... one of those funny things that is written by someone that doesn't really speak English? Or is that Artificial Intelligence at work?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 21:54:25 GMT -5
Are you saying you're surprised the presentation hasn't been prereleased? MNKD has done a lot of these conferences over the years and I don't recall a single time anything was released ahead of time. There is theoretical chance of anything happening on the same day as a conference, but it really isn't likely. Material events, such as might warrant halt in trading, have to be made public within a short window. A company can't sit on that news waiting for an investor conference. And timing some major event to coincide with a conference isn't something I've ever seen companies doing, and it doesn't strike me as something I'd ever try to interject into a business deal given I see no real value in it. I think it's just wishful thinking if one is imagining something substantial being announced Monday. This is simply a routine event that MNKD management has consistently done for many years. DBC....Looking back at Noblecon13, don’t see a presentation from MNKD. Which other “routine events” can you reference please. investors.mannkindcorp.com/events.cfm
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 21:52:40 GMT -5
Even if one believes progress will create enough confidence that equity financing will be possible, the magnitude of the resulting dilution would be quite hard to bound. How far in advance do you suspect MNKD will need to raise funds in order to extend their runway from 2nd quarter of 2018 onward? I assume it will need to be very soon and I'm not certain if progress on that aspect will necessarily be announced at the upcoming NobelCon14 meeting. Whenever it is, it would be best if it followed either 1) major news that will increase the PPS enough to make dilution more palatable or 2) upfront money from a partnership. My concern is that neither of these will transpire and dilution at around current PPS levels will be necessary. Perhaps the most ideal time for scenario 2 to have occurred is likely around the time of the FDA label change. Therefore, I think scenario 1 is the more likely path to further funding at this time, however what exactly that will entail is unknown. The consensus is that the STAT study results won't be released until the ADA meeting, which would be too late. The only other major catalyst that I can think of is a significant improvement in insurance coverage and/or increase in script #'s. MNKD seems to have less influence on improving insurance coverage. On the other hand, if it's true that script #'s should benefit 3-6 months following the launch of the new commercialization efforts (TV ads) in Q4 of 2017, then we should start to see an increase in script #'s right around the time when the company will definitely need to raise more capital. What are your thoughts on this? I wouldn't hazard a guess. Perhaps we will get some insight from Monday's call. I do wonder whether we'll get some insight into Q4 cash flow then.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 21:46:04 GMT -5
Could also be announcement of IND filing for pulmonary hypertension drug. Do you think that would really be perceived as a significant event? Management has said they are doing it, and it isn't something that gives any additional insight about likelihood of approval... it's just a necessary step in the process that we already know is in the works.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 20:57:54 GMT -5
Nanu Nanu ... I am from another galaxy ... but, it sounds like a merger to me. Please enlighten me on how hiring upper management positions would point to a merger. I’m all for a merger/ co promote deal but I don’t understand the theory of hiring upper management prior to a merger. Thanks Probably the theory is basically that whatever MNKD is doing, hiring or not hiring, it confirms what one wishes to believe Confirmation bias can be all too easy when one looks at facts as they develop and then interprets them without being informed by historical data points.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 20:33:35 GMT -5
Some formularies are updated mid year, so I think "ruled out" is inaccurate. How much change we might expect, I wouldn't hazard a guess on. At current revenue levels they do not have money for 2 qtrs. Why would you suppose they "can't" dilute at $3? Right.. I'm not sure how the insurance companies work. It sure looks like some kind of network with an artificial high barrier. They can dilute at $3. But, then it quickly gets to the crazy $1 region. They dont want to go near that again! If you do want to, you dont want to raise 10 mil - right? You want ~150-200 mil, and that will dilute it by more than 50%. So, IMHO they cant/wont do it at $3. They have to somehow bump it up like last time to $6-7, then take a big haircut (raise 150-200 mil), then go crazy with ads, and hope for the best. Most likely time would be ADA, but its too far away. So, IMHO, yesterday was/is a mystery. Or, maybe some partnership talks are going on and got leaked out?? I would imagine raising similar amount as last time rather than $10M or $150M. But that is purely a guess. Obviously Mike may have expectations about how things might unfold that are not known to any of us and could influence timing and size of an equity offering. Though companies can't just arbitrarily pick a number... it is bounded by how much demand there is. Even if the purchasers in a PIPE are shorting to lock in a profit based on discounted price, there are practical limitations to how many shares can be absorbed by markets.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 19:21:50 GMT -5
Just throwing out this thought. Any chance of a mid morning halt pending material news from Mikes presentation Monday? Interesting there is really nothing put together by now via slides etc...Are you saying you're surprised the presentation hasn't been prereleased? MNKD has done a lot of these conferences over the years and I don't recall a single time anything was released ahead of time. There is theoretical chance of anything happening on the same day as a conference, but it really isn't likely. Material events, such as might warrant halt in trading, have to be made public within a short window. A company can't sit on that news waiting for an investor conference. And timing some major event to coincide with a conference isn't something I've ever seen companies doing, and it doesn't strike me as something I'd ever try to interject into a business deal given I see no real value in it. I think it's just wishful thinking if one is imagining something substantial being announced Monday. This is simply a routine event that MNKD management has consistently done for many years.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 18:58:58 GMT -5
Even if one believes progress will create enough confidence that equity financing will be possible, the magnitude of the resulting dilution would be quite hard to bound.
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ADA
Jan 27, 2018 18:50:36 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 18:50:36 GMT -5
What PCP wants to hear about an easy to dose insulin? They have been taught "insulin is dangerous" Ralph DeFronzo has built an entire career on "insulin is dangerous". My pitch is a bit harder " Do you want to potentially stop the progression and save your PWDs from all the complications including heart disease and death?" Easy, "Stop the Spike, get "back to baseline" asap, "keep TIR near non-diabetic" and the body will do the rest. We have 40+ years of early insulin intervention studies, they all same the same that early use of insulin is best. None were done with afrezza which would only improve their results. We have the AACE which says insulin is the most potent agent. This science is settled. There are only TWO things which can consistently "Stop the Spike" - a healthy pancreas AND afrezza. There is no need to play Russian Roulette with an insulin needle. I suspect most PCPs want to hear that there is an easy to dose insulin. My PCP has anyone who needs to go on insulin go to an endo and expect there are a lot like that. There is a perception that it is hard to titrate and it is better that an expert does it. Being able to manage insulin without involving an endo would be a plus I would think (but I might be wrong as I have nothing to base that on other than gut feeling). None of the points you bring up can be used by reps since they are counter to the label. There are no trials to support any of that with Afrezza. This may change with STAT but even that has to wait for a label change. The reps have to work within the label, those are the FDA rules. I'd also think that sales reps would be spinning their wheels if they were trying to advocate treatment regimes contrary to ADA guidelines.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 17:02:50 GMT -5
agedhippie... do you feel there is benefit to having BG that flat. I don't think people without diabetes normally have such a flat line.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 27, 2018 4:08:57 GMT -5
You have exceeded your daily contracted traffic amount. Perhaps they could spring for better hosting with some of the funding Yes, perhaps. Though now it seems to be back up. I'm sure it's me. or not
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 26, 2018 18:33:41 GMT -5
Thanks Sports, Looks like the sky is the limit here for MNKD. Some many applications for technosphere (more than Ray ever discussed). BP going to have to act now or be lost in the pack. Going to get very exciting here to be a MNKD shareholder. WooHoo !!!! It hasn't been exciting for a long time? I'm not sure my heart can take any more excitement. I'm not as young as I used to be when I first invested in MNKD.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 26, 2018 18:26:21 GMT -5
Hmmm... website is down.
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