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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 1, 2018 19:13:02 GMT -5
Is "just" a 5-bagger not enough?! i liked your post but to be fair, for many of us who bought some shares between 2013 and 2015, a 5 bagger from now dont make us come even close to braking even on those shares so its not that much. The sad fact of dilution. It may well be unrealistic to ever reach levels that would make all investors whole. I acquired quite a lot of options a year ago and brought my break even point down significantly. At this point I'd be thrilled with $10 and have a nice, if not huge profit. I do think ultimately there is potential to hit $12 to $16, perhaps higher if future dilution is at low end of range I think possible.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 1, 2018 16:49:19 GMT -5
140 Million is the actual stock shares number.... if, and if, the company will be valued one day in the range 3-4 B$ We have to add, sure, the cost to go there. Another 30-40 Million shares minimum (number of shares needed depends by how quick revenue increase and how quick PPS move north). So that going to 3-4 B$ (actually a dream for me) We will have not a 26$ per share but something like 20$ ps Yes, one would need to add in some as well for funding. Realistically I think we end up with at least 220M shares... counting current warrants, options and conversion rights and future funding. Could well be 250M+.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 1, 2018 16:45:56 GMT -5
No, no mistake. 140M shares * $26/sh takes you in the $3-4B range, doesn't it? $140M * $2/sh = $280M market cap actual. At $26/sh there would be about 182M shares when one includes all the warrants, options and conversion rights that would be deep in the money.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 31, 2018 17:07:46 GMT -5
I've heard the 10x before. What is your source for him saying he ever expected a market cap of of $150B or more (to yield 10x return on his investment)? I don't believe I ever saw anything he suggested near that. As much success as Al Mann had in his career that is orders of magnitude beyond his other successes. Seems quite an extraordinary claim. BTW, your $40 a share is way above what Nate Pile, one of Mannkind's strongest proponents is projecting for a market cap. I think Sports said recently he raised the upper end of his range from $3B to $4B market cap. No, I told you before that was gamblerjag that said 4 billion not Nate, Nate said $26.... NatesNotesMay 17th, 8:32 am as a bonus, biotech stocks tend to overshoot by just as much on the upside as they do on the downside (& $26 is just "fair value" for $MNKD) “I think "fair value" TODAY, based on what we know about Afrezza and AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME, is probably somewhere in the $3 billion range... and more (probably quite a bit more!) down the road, with the potential valuation only getting higher the further out you're willing to look.” So both those statements are from Nate recently? or is the latter from gamblerjag. Sorry, I can get confused if each quote isn't attributed. If he's equating $26/sh with $3B market cap, he's making the same mistake of not realizing there will be a LOT of extra shares in play long before it hits $26/sh.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 31, 2018 13:23:09 GMT -5
DBC, Perhaps if we could get Apple involved? ;-) Yes, maybe the iPhone XX will have an inhalation device built into it. I hear all sorts of rumors about what will be included in the iPhone XXX.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 31, 2018 13:21:07 GMT -5
It should be noted that the patent this thread is about actually has nothing to do with Bluhale. That was a bit off topic.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 31, 2018 10:38:14 GMT -5
Hand raised. Head down in shame. It was probably me (re: $150B). I thought Afrezza and Techosphere would be fantasticly successful by now... Now I’m dreading the next dilution, and hoping scripts get to 1000 this year. Hey dbc, I remember when the talk of Al looking to get 10x of his average was circulating, and at that time his average was rumored to be between $6 and $7/share. Just going by the price of the options of ALs that expired a few years back, $30 ish by memory, if things would’ve gone as planned we may have come close. and Sean, don’t hang that head too low, we’re still in business !! If Afrezza and Technosphere were worthless you wouldn’t see the continuing campaign to destroy Mannkind. 30 million plus short shares, hit piece after hit piece, naked shorting, an unprecedented share lending program that has recently fizzled for some reason We’re not finished yet,, ✌🏻😎 Of course Al would never had thought unlimited dilution could occur without likewise diluting the ultimate share price achievable. Al also had high hopes for the oncology work, which has been divested. No way to ask Al what he would expect right now, but I'm guessing it would be far more modest than some of the people here. He was a pragmatist. I think his seeing the destruction of equity of MNKD was one of the things that weighed heavily on his health. Afrezza certainly isn't worthless, but the FDA and Sanofi debacles left us in quite a hole to dig out of. Digging out of a hole always sounds easier than it is... I think I'd rather have a rope and a grappling hook. Maybe STAT is our grappling hook and Kendall can use his special ops training.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 31, 2018 10:24:28 GMT -5
3 - 10 years is no worries. I can wait. 10 years down the road we may have an actual cure... something like cell transplant or gene therapy. Hopefully both that happens and Afrezza catches on much sooner.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 31, 2018 10:14:02 GMT -5
I always thought MNKD had proven with trials that a reliable dose of Afrezza is delivered over a very broad range of respiratory force. What sort of inhalation analytics do you imagine would have use? Seems the current Bluhale could have use in doc office, just to verify someone takes a puff correctly. But hopefully it isn't complicated enough to do so that patients need constant monitoring. I've never used it, but from what I see users saying, it is pretty simple. My point was that users of injections seem to be fine with entering a dose manually in their CGM (or other diabetes) app, so why would Afrezza seem to need some sort of complicated/expenses gadgetry DBC,
It seems like all of this would fall into the willing laps of the Millennials who can't do ANYTHING without it involving their phones.
Hopefully they do some market research on how well the 3rd party devices for pens are selling. I've still not seen/heard of anyone, millennial or otherwise, using one. Also, not hearing about Lilly, Novo or Sanofi planning to add bluetooth connectivity. To me it just seems like an unnecessary manufacturing expense. Even if someone wishes to track things on their phone, and in this case there may be valid reason for people of all ages to do so, if you need to open the app and hit a button to log a meal anyway it seems hitting another button to indicate which cartridge of Afrezza isn't something even a young person would mind doing. Another case in point is quite a few companies developed bluetooth enabled caps for pill bottles or smart pill cases... do you know of any millennials using those? Actually the intended market was the elderly, but I don't even think they caught on at all. Maybe it's just a misconception that there is an automatic market for any and everything to be connected. [Edit:] Here is an article on what looks like one of the more sophisticated bluetooth connected pill bottles. I like the industrial design. Never seen anyone using a bluetooth/WiFi connected one. www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/08/22/538153337/smart-pill-bottles-arent-enough-to-help-the-medicine-go-down
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 30, 2018 22:10:36 GMT -5
DBC I think he was referring to an effort to agree a collaboration to show alignment with inhaled insulin. Sure that icon effort programmatically isn’t hard. Now the other mods for auto sensing dosing units and tying that data stream to multi-platform inhalation analytics is not a simple programmer exercise. It’s quite complicated. I always thought MNKD had proven with trials that a reliable dose of Afrezza is delivered over a very broad range of respiratory force. What sort of inhalation analytics do you imagine would have use? Seems the current Bluhale could have use in doc office, just to verify someone takes a puff correctly. But hopefully it isn't complicated enough to do so that patients need constant monitoring. I've never used it, but from what I see users saying, it is pretty simple. My point was that users of injections seem to be fine with entering a dose manually in their CGM (or other diabetes) app, so why would Afrezza seem to need some sort of complicated/expenses gadgetry
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 30, 2018 22:00:43 GMT -5
Al Mann expected a payback of 10-100 times his estates investment: ~800mil..... 8bil-80bil. $40 a share is the low end. I've heard the 10x before. What is your source for him saying he ever expected a market cap of of $150B or more (to yield 10x return on his investment)? I don't believe I ever saw anything he suggested near that. As much success as Al Mann had in his career that is orders of magnitude beyond his other successes. Seems quite an extraordinary claim. BTW, your $40 a share is way above what Nate Pile, one of Mannkind's strongest proponents is projecting for a market cap. I think Sports said recently he raised the upper end of his range from $3B to $4B market cap.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 30, 2018 19:55:33 GMT -5
I think many of us would be thrilled with half that over the long run. $40/sh would be far beyond the largest market cap MNKD ever hit. isnt 40$ only about 5,5b mc? It is not THAT far from 4b which is about what we reach in 2014. With Kite buyout at 12b, i think it is possible. Am i missing something? Yes you're missing all the warrants, options and conversion rights that would be deep in the money long before that share price. The market cap at $40/sh would basically be $7.2B.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 30, 2018 19:51:16 GMT -5
That sounds awesome. What is the app called? I'm not sure Mango, the commercialization strategy for bluhale seems to be unfolding this year.
From a recent article by Mike Hoskins in March 2018 on Healthline: "MannKind has a training pilot program in place now, with a few sales reps taking the adapters into clinics for doctors to have their patients try out. Currently it's just an 8 to 10-week program that's starting out small, but Castagna hopes to bring more providers into the program before long. As BluHale's currently an adapter, the company is also exploring whether it could build the connectivity into the base inhaler itself, or whether it's best to keep the inhaler and BluHale accessory separate. Manufacturing, access and affordability all play into that decision. Eventually, Castagna's vision for this BluHale tech -- especially if they're able to add fiber-optics recognition -- would be to enable full Afrezza dose tracking and recognition of the color of a cartridge to know which are being used more, and data integration with existing apps and platforms. That is, MannKind does not intend to create their own mobile app or platform for Afrezza users, but instead wants to work within the D-Community so that Afrezza data becomes sharable via other platforms and apps. Castagna would like to see a day where an Afrezza inhaler icon could appear on a Dexcom CGM app, for example instead of just an injection icon as exists now".
www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/bluhale-tech-and-afrezza#1
That would take a programmer a half an hour to do at Dexcom. Though I guess if they made the icon look like the dreamboat there would be 2 weeks worth of legal work I think there are third party devices to automatically log injections into apps as is contemplated for the dreamboat here, but I don't think they are widely used. Doesn't seem a very big deal to press a couple of buttons to log an insulin dose. If one really wants useful info, they are already needing to open the app to log food consumption... unless Mannkind can modify the acoustic technology to recognize the sound of chewing and log the type and quantity of food.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 30, 2018 19:38:04 GMT -5
Well obviously when the knee bone connects to the hip bone ... we will go straight to $40 per share. It's all clear now ... heee... Im not sure i understand the bones analogie but i would be dancing in the street if we see 40$ soon. Unfortunatly, it is not that clear to me... I think many of us would be thrilled with half that over the long run. $40/sh would be far beyond the largest market cap MNKD ever hit.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 27, 2018 4:02:00 GMT -5
There is a common belief the cause of T2 diabetes is diet and exercise. Since we know that a non-diabetic's body's will naturally adjust by growing more beta-cells as the body needs more insulin, IMO the theory doesn't hold much weight. There is a "flu" theory from places like Joslin which IMO seems to identify the root cause. The theory has two aspects; the virus kills the beta cells; the flu attaches to insulin receptors causing insulin resistance. This theory would also support the genetic observation as some people's immune systems are able to fight off the virus so they don't get diabetes. Joslin's Flu is the cause of T2 - futurism.com/viral-insulin-fish-diabetes-cancer/ I am pretty sure in the "lost studies" which Dr. Kendall now has there is some evidence that treating T2's early with afrezza will allow some beta cell regeneration. If they really want a fighting chance of reversing T2 diabetes and allowing the body's immune system to fight off the virus the formula is simple. First get them on afrezza asap and allow the pancreas time to recover. Second have them lose weight reducing the insulin needs of the body. Third, have them take some long daily walks to improve cell uptake of insulin.
This is really not very hard but the problem has always been not having a safe replacement for the insulin which the body is no longer making. At this point we have a marketing problem; first, insulin is seen as bad; insulin causes hypos and will kill; doctors view insulin as the last option to prescribe; if you really can reverse of even stop the progression what are the other BPs going to sell. Whether it's a virus or simply susceptible genes, that probably is good treatment. Diabetes is less prevalent in cities with lots of hills.
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