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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 14:09:49 GMT -5
I'm putting all my money in bitcoin... and tulip bulbs.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 14:03:25 GMT -5
I'm in the same boat, dreamboat. Hoping options close up for the Jan 2018 calls. Im not out of the money, strictly speaking, but making one very large loss at present on the $1 pre-split calls. If I'm understanding you correctly, those actually are very much out of the money. You'd need to pay $5 per share if they were to be exercised (and the option would only cover 1/5 the number of shares it originally did). Without a huge pop those will expire worthless. I have both $0.5 and $1 calls. The $0.5 are in the money since that is a strike of $2.5 now... though still would have large loss on them based on today's price.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 13:55:19 GMT -5
Thank you all for the feedback! Especially sports, baba and Matt. I will check out that book Baba. Matt, your rec may be over my head? I definitely don't have any university level finance education. I'm a chemical engineer and dermatologist, so I consider myself to be relatively intelligent and good at mathematics....but I'm starting to feel a little over my head! I bought a ton of it when it was under a $1. I sold a bunch when it was in the $4 range, but still own a little over 200k shares, and it has ballooned to account for a pretty large % of my portfolio. I still strongly believe in the potential, so I'm hesitant to sell much more right now (especially as I like it at this price). I'm trying to figure out a way to stay heavily invested, but limit the downside risk. Sounds like there is some debate on if call options are the right approach to accomplish that. Maybe some puts instead? Or some $1 strikes for 2019, so I can still benefit on the upside, but can buy my shares back cheaper if they drop? Sorry, I know my options lingo is showing how little I really know about them! but I agree with you mytakeonit....the fastest way for me to learn is to just put a little money on the line! I will emphasize the 'little' part I realize its probably time to just hire some professional help, but I would still like to understand it a little better before that. Plus I really enjoy it! Maybe I should call up Aegis?? Kidding of course!! Sports, did you end up buying 2019 leaps today? Do you mind telling me what strike price and premium? epc, sounds like you have played this well, consider not changing much at all! Sports can get you all excited over options, but watch out, especially short term options. But you might want to someday find the world of selling naked puts. But that day is not now, for the most part. The time for that is after a big correction or toward the end of a bear market. It's like stealing at that point. Ah, yes, all the times I thought my naked selling of puts was when we were at or nearing the end of the long MNKD bear market/mauling. It was indeed like stealing, but not so much so that I could actually file a police report.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 13:42:54 GMT -5
No chance at all. Amgen isn't in this market, and Novartis is committed to a different approach. So what are your pick(s). You and I know they have to ink a deal for international sales. It is inevitable. Taking management at face value they are pursuing a regional approach to international partners. In the absence of other info I give benefit of the doubt that management is not being misleading.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 13:31:32 GMT -5
Here we go again with H.C. Wainwright? Are we going to see the same deal happen again? WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT?
MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD): H.C. Wainwright Reconfirms Buy Rating Today, Has a Target of $7.0/Share MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) Rating Reaffirmed
They currently have a $7.0 PT on MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD). The target price by H.C. Wainwright would suggest a potential upside of 200.43 % from the company’s previous close. This has been revealed to investors in a research note on Tuesday morning.
bzweekly.com/mannkind-nasdaqmnkd-h-c-wainwright-reconfirms-buy-rating-today-has-a-target-of-7-0-share/
I hope its not a phony deal or repeat of last October. I'd take another round of smoke and mirrors if they can pull it off. I've got some options expiring this month, and worthless unless we get a bounce. I'm not overly hopeful they can pull it off a second time. If only I'd been a bit more suspect of the last smoke screen and sold my Jan 2018 calls. Everyone knows me, however... always being too optimistic
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 13:20:52 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise when you consider the vast number of compounds the immune system has to be able to differentiate between self and non-self, I am surprised there are not more immunological conditions. Sorry to hear of yours. I'm comparatively lucky. This is probably the easiest of all the dozens of autoimmune diseases to live with... now that we have modern medicine. Wouldn't be here without the levothyroxine, but as it is I live with no ill effects what so ever. Thank you pharma industry
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 12:44:57 GMT -5
Schwab returned all my remaining loaned shares on 12/29. Only once before in the past several years have they returned all my shares.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 2, 2018 12:37:02 GMT -5
Aged - Gary is not only now using afrezza he is also speaking on it. He started soon after his review integrateddiabetes.com/my-review-of-afrezza-fast-acting-inhaled-insulin/ came out. Gary goes way back with Al Mann as he was one of the first Minimed pump users when he was at Joslin. He waited a few years on afrezza to see if the lung FUD was an issue and came to the conclusion it was a lot of FUD. Back in 1920 Goat's Rue was about all they had. When insulin was discovered it 1921 it quickly became obsoleted. Because of the disaster of Orinase and the rest of the T2 meds Goat's Rue was more or less reborn as Metformin. In the U.S. we have guys like Ralph DeFronzo to thank and now 25 years later what does Ralph say about metformin? ... We are testing a lot more now than ever before for antibodies and guess what we are finding? Yes more LADAs who a few years ago we would have called T2s. Now, if we test all T2s and had better testing would more and more T2s show some level of some anitbodies? - my guess is yes but it really doesn't matter. What we do know is if we get these people asap when they still have beta cell function and put them on afrezza and keep them in a non-diabetic range for 3 - 6 months most will see positive beta cell results. That's pretty much what VDex is doing. Get them early and get them on afrezza. What do they say "afrezza first, afrezza always"? I am very interested is seeing their clinical findings. Hopefully they will have them available soon. I know Gary's history and writings on Afrezza, I use Integrated Diabetes myself. Goat's rue and french liliac are the same plant. A lot of non-diabetics have antibodies, there are even studies to see if you can use these to predict Type 1, but the difference is the quantity. Non-diabetics and Type 2s have traces of antibodies, Type 1 and LADA have armies of them. LADA is confused with Type 2 because of the relatively slow onset (the auto-immune system is making a leisurely lunch out of the beta cells unlike with Type 1). Your auto-immune system doesn't care about your glucose levels, it's going to kill those beta cells regardless. Like T1, I have autoimmune thyroid disease. Been taking levothyroxine for decades now. Replacing the hormone does nothing to stop the immune system from relentless attack on the thyroid. My doc years ago basically told me I'd end up with "a lump of scar tissue where your thyroid now is". I assume that's basically the state of things now. Our immune systems are truly amazing, but unfortunately can become confused.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 31, 2017 16:57:42 GMT -5
That kind of call is designed to make you feel like something good is coming. And it's a very old trick, and I'm surprised anyone here would think otherwise. In general, the stock market is one of the great users of misdirection. Obviously, I'm still in the "bah humbug" mood and mode here! Push polling. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_pollYou obviously need to be kept awake one night by ghosts... that always brightens one's mood.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 29, 2017 15:56:25 GMT -5
One of the biggest challenges PWDs seem to face is insurance coverage. I am assuming you have a trick or two as part of your protocol in getting the PWD insurance. About what percent of your patients are being covered? IMO the need for controlled studies at this point is dwarfed by your clinical results if they are as good as you say, and I have no reason to doubt you. Its pretty hard to argue with a pre/post afrezza AGP chart as the numbers don't lie. Your results combined with a profitable business model should allow investment for at least 100 clinics by year-end 2018. Assuming each clinic can do 10 new RXs per week, VDex alone should be doing 2X what the rest of medical community is currently doing. Thinking out loud, 2018 could finally be the year of afrezza and not the year of the dog. Sayhey you are correct that insurance is one of the challenges, but surprisingly, we don't find it that tough to surmount. I don't have precise numbers in front of me, but my guess is that better than 80% of our patients get covered eventually. For competitive reasons, I'll be a little vague about how we do it. It can be a little time-consuming and for that reason, most traditional medical practices won't likely bother. Plus, we had to figure some of it out on our own. It was a similar process as with our treatment protocols in this respect: we knew the basics about how to prescribe and treat patients, but we learned through trial and error how to get better results by doing some things differently. Same with insurance coverage. Regarding our expansion, again, we had to try different things there as well. Here I'll say almost nothing for competitive reasons except this: we had initial ideas, tried them, found they didn't work, and evolved. The whole Vdex experience has required us to think outside the box after we tried something obvious and failed at it. That's why this has taken longer than all of us have wanted. We have been sustained by our belief in Al Mann, Afrezza, and the desire to do something meaningful for PWD. And, the support of so many on this board has certainly helped during some of the darkest moments. I've been a bit of a skeptic given what I've read about struggles, and closures, of other medical clinics and chains specializing in diabetes. Though that can mean there is simply a market opportunity for someone with the drive and inventiveness to succeed where others have failed. Best of luck. Certainly appreciate hearing updates.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 28, 2017 15:45:05 GMT -5
At the risk of opening the kimono too much, let me say that Vdex is NOT set up as a charity or a vehicle to pump up the stock price of MNKD, but is very much a profit-making endeavor. We believe, in fact, we have proven, that our model will be quite profitable. That said, our first concern when we organized the company was an evaluation of Afrezza and the design of protocols to best use the product. We've learned a ton. Afrezza is every bit as good as Al Mann said it was, and actually a little better (I'll leave details on that point for a later post). We have played with different protocols and have developed our own after some trial and error. Suffice to say, we are highly confident about improving blood sugar control with virtually every diabetic. That's not to say we're so wonderful, but rather because Afrezza is. What Vdex contributes are protocols for the best way to use Afrezza. It has been mentioned before but bears repeating, Afrezza is not the easiest product to use correctly. There is a learning curve. We know; we traveled it. But the effort is clearly worth it. There is simply no better way to manage blood sugar, in our opinion, than with Afrezza. Like all new endeavors, Vdex has had its share of bumps. We have been resolute in our approach because its quite clear that something has to change in the treatment of diabetes. Our goal is to make that change happen. We are now at a point where we can begin our expansion in earnest. I don't want to set false expectations, but we do not intend to merely operate a few centers in Southern California. Our sights are set considerably higher. We know there will be challenges dand that we will make mistakes. That's entrepreneurship. We don't fear that; we embrace it. Have you been collecting statistics on your clinical population (A1c, time in range)? Will it be used in marketing? or published?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 15:07:58 GMT -5
Looks like the shorts are leaving us a lump of coal in our stocking for Christmas. Maybe we end the day in the red after such a hopeful beginning to the day. Someday, they will get what they so richly deserve. centralcoastinvestor Dropping 10% in about four hours of trading is pretty severe. Let's hope it's not 15% - 20% by the end of the day, but it wouldn't surprise me. When the price per share is low and volume is meager, the shorts don't have to expend very much ammunition to create whatever low price they desire. Nothing to get in their way. Seems buyers may be on sideline... waiting to see how Deerfield shakes out? Waiting until a solid bottom seems to have formed?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 14:35:43 GMT -5
Is that Afrezza on my screen Couldn't be. Way too much variation in size. Afrezza manufacturing has very tight control on particle size.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 13:26:20 GMT -5
Very nice to see. I know when I'm in need of new ideas for investments I check the lists of insider buying, so I'm guessing this could bring in some new retail investors.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 12:55:36 GMT -5
vdexdiabetes... do you think the learning curve is worse for Afrezza compared to RAA, or just that clinical staff is much more familiar with RAAs as well as other sources of advice such as online diabetes forums with huge numbers of RAA users?
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