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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 3:13:20 GMT -5
Osborne has mentioned to me, several times, he has no long or short position in Mannkind. People are of the opinion that his articles influence share price. While he may influence some retail investors, I doubt institutions would be. Yes, I doubt he really influences much (maybe short term, but certainly not long term). Even more bizarre, many people on this forum think posts here are going to influence the course of things (oh my! Imagine thinking online chat changes Wall Street.).
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 2:49:11 GMT -5
I have presented to multiple GPs that have found the graph in the brochure impressive and compelling. There biggest comeback to me has been more about insurance coverage than efficacy. Sadly that is a big issue. On a positive note... I think we have the right person at the helm to be navigating that issue. The flip side... it isn't going to happen overnight.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 2:37:02 GMT -5
What if... MannKind was here to saves lives—and not to make you rich? Though Al was one that was about free enterprise and making money. He never would have wanted anyone to consider MNKD a charity. He believed in... is it doing good by doing well... or the other way around? Think many get those confused.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 22, 2017 2:30:38 GMT -5
I've lived in CA for nearly 30 years and seen a lot of wildfires, but the seasons do seem to be getting worse. Best wishes to all those affected by the fires. I know a lot are displaced from their homes for the holidays. More droughts to come with worse wildfires. Sorry for you guys that you have to pay the bill. You are losing your bullishness. I am much more bullish about MNKD than our climate. Best to be realistic about both, as that is how we figure out how to navigate difficult situations.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 20:19:15 GMT -5
Well I have snow floating down as I type this. I get a kick out of people that live without snow. On the other hand, when I'm blowing it out of the drive and it's coming back into my face, I can't help but envy them! The grass is always greener... when it's not under a foot of snow That's what the mountains are for here in CA... and The Grove, where they blow real snow over the streets once an hour
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 19:50:39 GMT -5
I've lived in CA for nearly 30 years and seen a lot of wildfires, but the seasons do seem to be getting worse. Best wishes to all those affected by the fires. I know a lot are displaced from their homes for the holidays.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 19:29:26 GMT -5
I think the server must be in Southern CA.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 19:17:49 GMT -5
Many here, including myself did express being impressed with Mike's ability to pull that off. However, it now appears that it was a bit of smoke and mirrors employed (including two "analysts" who were competing for the PIPE business, and now one has turned negative) to orchestrate that temporary run up, which was good for the PIPE but now the inevitable correction has left many feeling a bit sick from the roller coaster ride. While being impressed with Mike pulling it off at $6, many people believe that a majority of the shares likely went to purchasers that would have shorted the shares immediately when the deal was concluded and locked in the discount given them as profit... if true that isn't investors taking a risk because they believe in long term of company. Whether that is true or not I don't think any of us know, but the perception is likely why the transaction didn't support share price staying that high. At the risk of sounding stupid - and when it comes to shorting stock I admit I pretty much am: How does one buy shares and immediately short them or even short them at all? I understand a share owner can lend shares to someone to sell who sells them and then later buys them back at a lower price and gives the borrowed shares back to the lender. I also could imagine a purchaser of say 10 million shares af $6, for example, having first shorted the stock at a higher price and using the purchase to pay back the borrowed shares. What I don’t understand though is how someone can purchase shares and short them themselves for a profit. The latter it seems to me would be just like purchasing shares and then selling them. If they bought shares at $6 why would they sell at lower prices? In this case the shorting is before the price drops, and an important context is that a company with a legitimate economic hedging interest can do so even if they seemingly have inside information. At least this is my understanding. If someone at MNKD were to leak to me that they were going to do a financing at $6 when the stock is trading at $6.60 and I shorted it, it would be insider trading, but apparently there is an exception for transactions like this where the short is considered by SEC as a valid step in hedging a financial transaction. [please someone jump in if I'm misrepresenting securities laws] So what happens in these situations is that the stock is trading at $X. The company concludes a deal with a purchaser to buy shares at 10% below $X with delivery on some specified day in the near future. This info does not have to be made public immediately. In the interim the purchaser borrows shares (or if the delivery of shares from the company is within 3 days, they might get aware without borrowing), shorts them at $X and has thus locked in the 10% discount as profit. When the shares are delivered by the company they are either returned to lender or delivered to the purchaser in the short transaction depending on whether shares were actually borrowed. No one knows this was what was done, but apparently not at all uncommon in PIPEs done from a need to raise capital.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 17:57:41 GMT -5
I put him on Ignore and am much the happier for having done so. Really sick and tired of his negative spin on virtually everything. FUDmeister? Try it. You'll like it. You're just being "emotional," as opposed to being "objective." (The above is sarcasm). I agree with you, 100%. A good sign of an emotional response is when one is only disparaging the messenger without having anything of substance to contribute about the content of the message. Also, in general isn't considered good forum etiquette.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 16:12:46 GMT -5
Mike's purchase was a scheduled purchase; scripts rise above 550 tomorrow; and there is a strong partnership announcement? Is this possible, and if so what would happen to the shorts? I guess it's ok to spew positive thoughts now that I see a little green. Anything is possible when you wish upon a star. Though madog365 wish would require inventing a time machine first... some claim that's possible.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 16:02:55 GMT -5
timri ... I repeatedly confirm that I'm long, have been for many many years. You can even find posts where I've stated when I've made purchases including as recently as this past summer... and I've volunteered to prove it. As you see from a post by me just above, I also have said I was impressed by getting the PIPE done at $6... and I in NO WAY have done what you accuse me of, "blasting Mike" for the PIPE (though I think the pumping that enabled such a great price has a bit of hangover effect, still thrilled it was done). My complaint against Mike was over the size of the share authorization, which I do believe will be an overhang on share price and thus ironically make it harder to use shares to raise money. It wasn't doing an authorization, it was the size of it. To use your metaphor, if the patient is paralyzed, there might be different treatment options and there can be legitimate dispute over which is the correct course of action... do you take out one disc or two discs to relieve the pressure on the spinal cord, or remove half the spine. Hopefully we can get the TS pipeline unstuck. We know that it has been lack of financial resources that stalled it. I try to be a realist when considering my investments and leave emotional negativity or positivity out of analysis as much as possible. Taking off my investor hat, I'm certainly hoping MNKD succeeds because I think Afrezza will prevent a lot of needless suffering by those with diabetes. But with my investor hat on, I try to figure out what might be the drivers of share price over both short and long term... and the above list was some of my observations on near term influences on share price. Other posts from me are more about long term, where you'll see I'm a firm believer in the potential for Afrezza. Some here don't wish to view MNKD as a regular investment where discussion of things like earnings guidance is normal. They are wanting to consider MNKD as a crusade that one has to either pledge full devotion to or be an enemy. Those types are fine, especially if they respect the rules of the forum and don't mount personal attacks.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 15:32:02 GMT -5
Just curious with what has, and has not, been said by management, what is the expectation for formulary improvement. I'll leave it up to each to define what they consider significant. For me, perhaps it would be when the improvement is enough that doctors are aware of it and less reluctant to prescribe... or perhaps when the improvement is enough that when it is revealed it is greeted with a sustained rise in share price.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 15:22:37 GMT -5
esstan2001... I don't think lack of formulary improvement was baked in. In fact I think there may be some that are still expecting it in the short term.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 14:49:30 GMT -5
Am I the only one that is really impressed that MNKD just raised $60M at a $6/share price. The stock has been trading around $1 most of the year. It goes over $6 for like 2 days and Management is able to sell $1M shares at $6/share. That is very impressive and gives me a lot of hope that someone thinks this company is worth a lot more than $6/share. Many here, including myself did express being impressed with Mike's ability to pull that off. However, it now appears that it was a bit of smoke and mirrors employed (including two "analysts" who were competing for the PIPE business, and now one has turned negative) to orchestrate that temporary run up, which was good for the PIPE but now the inevitable correction has left many feeling a bit sick from the roller coaster ride. While being impressed with Mike pulling it off at $6, many people believe that a majority of the shares likely went to purchasers that would have shorted the shares immediately when the deal was concluded and locked in the discount given them as profit... if true that isn't investors taking a risk because they believe in long term of company. Whether that is true or not I don't think any of us know, but the perception is likely why the transaction didn't support share price staying that high.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 21, 2017 14:16:01 GMT -5
esstan2001... Regarding #4, I think some things have materially changed since the positive news of the PIPE. - share authorization, the size of which was sobering - realization that we apparently have not gotten meaningfully better formulary treatment in formularies for 2018 starting in January which many expected - growing realization that there will likely be a guidance miss for this quarter - and now with price at $2.50, the prospect of ugly optics for the Deerfield debt repayment in Jan I do agree with your point about partnerships perhaps being dependent on some additional evidence of commercial viability arising, whether that be trial results that demonstrate superiority or perhaps even detailed regional Symphony data showing that revenue is indeed responsive to DTC advertising. One has to ask why partners would come forth now when MNKD has been looking for a long time. We had hoped that the label change would do it, but perhaps that wasn't enough. The prospect of a partnership is too vague to provide any support for the share price as it could be something like Brazil that doesn't change the near term situation. If there were some big fish sniffing around MNKD that would likely become known to the smart money and then we'd see the share price increasing.
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