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Post by compound26 on Oct 19, 2017 18:49:50 GMT -5
In many ways Kent is cut from the same cloth as Al Mann, who put $1 billion of his own fortune into the company. I respect the guy for buying stock.  Yeah, but this whole run up and dilution feel contrived. It all just feels like manipulation to me. I don't like drastic swings in price like this, it says more about market manipulation than the strength of the underlying security. It's better than downside manipulation but based on the strong surge you had to know that it would correct. This emphasizes the adage that gaps fill. Okay. I am way less picky. I am fine with drastic swings. Can someone here please manipulate the PPS all the way up to $20-25 or even $50, the higher the better, even for a day. I will appreciate your help very much. Please do leave a message to me before you plan to do so so that I do not miss the move. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 19, 2017 13:37:45 GMT -5
Anyone have a guess if this helps stock price tomorrow? It's easier to guess now, but for future reference I might suggest looking at the hundreds of other patents MNKD has been issued and whether they have ever had a noticeable effect on stock price. Agree. These patents generally have no impact on PPS. The reason is that these patent are generally filed quite a few years back. On these European patents I believe they were filed in 2009. So from that perspective, the date of granting a patent is generally a purely random date to the patent applicant (in this case, Mannkind). The point I am making is that the date of the granting of the patent is most likely not linked to any major event (like drug application filing, partnership announcement, etc.) in any way. However, that being said, the granting of a patent is always a positive development to me. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 19, 2017 12:32:58 GMT -5
I'm waiting for sub $2.00. Probably next week. Personally, if I was the COB, and just lost almost half a million in a week, I might be just a bit pissed off. Let's hope he is smart and wise with vision to the long term future of MannKind. He did not buy it to lose money. My bet is there is more to unfold before the end of 2017. But then again I have extreme fantasies that are uncontrolled by hard drugs or liquor.
I have a fantasy date circled. 10/23 and or 10/27 again I'm just a dumb old retail investor.
Come on, orlon , do not use the day-trading mentality to judge Kent Kresa's purchase. Any purchase by him, as chairman of the board, shows his confidence over the success of Mannkind and Afrezza over the long term. His position is down significantly now, but should he care? Probably not much. This will be especially true if he is pleased with what he is seeing at the company (i.e., what Mike and team has been able to achieve day to day). How long has investment taken place? Just a few days. As long as his bullish expectation of Mannkind pans out, he will do fine, actually very well. If in 1-2 years, Mannkind does well and has a market cap, say $2B, Kent Kresa will be tripling his investment. At that time, will it be a problem that his position was once underwater? |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 13, 2017 18:07:59 GMT -5
Biggest flag pole of all time. Price aint going anywhere but up. Kent buying his shares. May form a flag or pennant for the next few days/weeks but the share price will just be looking for an excuse to make the next leg up. I am actually positive surprised that the price is staying at that level. I assume that the market will wait for 3 weeks to see if this label change has any effect. If not, price will slowly drop as we saw on other occasions. Let's hope that sales can change the trajectory.If they can, then the size of the market will create a lot of fantasy at WS. How do you come up with 3 weeks? Couldn't be 3 months or 6 months? |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 12, 2017 18:21:27 GMT -5
So where are we in this process? 1 to 2 weeks until filing and then how long until approval for the market? Fast track? Here is what the management said about this in the last conference call: Finally on this topic, we announced our international expansion with Brazil, that is on track to file our meeting request by the end of this year and what will next happen is a inspection of our manufacturing facilities will occur and at that point we will be ready to file the application with an expectation of potential approval in late 2018. seekingalpha.com/article/4096149-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 12, 2017 11:02:31 GMT -5
still going? I just tuned in but its a commercial Just ended a minute ago. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 12, 2017 10:32:36 GMT -5
Can someone clarify something for me....10.7 million shares at $6.00 will give the company around 58million cash. The deal is supposed to close on the 13th...that's Friday the 13th. But the share price will likely be lower than that as it's almost $5.00 now. So how does MNKD still come up $58 million? From the press release: Nothing is guaranteed, but the release stated that the price of $6 had been agreed upon with investors for a direct offering. Yes, nothing is guaranteed. But this is a done deal, just like any other financing. When it is announced, it is done, even though the closing occurs a few days later. As per my other post, the same exact thing happened with Mannkind's last round of offering in May 2016. Offering announced during after hours on May 9, 2016. PPS tumbled 22% on May 10, 2016. But that had no impact on the offering closing that occurred on May 12, 2016. mnkd.proboards.com/post/126055 |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 11, 2017 19:34:43 GMT -5
I've become confused now. Do we actually know that any investors signed up at $6. I haven't looked into all the statements/documents but some things posted today seem to indicate this is just an offering not a done deal... and of course no one would pay a premium over market to buy shares directly. If it wasn't a done deal I would think they would have structured it to be at a price of some average of trading price over a certain number of days minus a % discount. Does anyone know which if there is any committed money? I was singing the praises of Mike earlier today when I thought this was "check is in the mail" money. Hopefully I'm now worried because of lack of info that someone can fill in. Looks like a done deal for me. Note the highlighted wording in the press release from Mannkind. investors.mannkindcorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1043467MannKind Announces $61 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Oct. 11, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) and (TASE:MNKD) today announced that it entered into definitive agreements with certain institutional investors and other investors in connection with a registered direct offering of an aggregate of 10,166,600 shares of common stock at an offering price of $6.00 per share, for gross proceeds of approximately $61 million. The offering is expected to close on or about October 13, 2017, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
"With this offering, we have made substantial progress in our efforts to recapitalize the company," said Michael Castagna, Chief Executive Officer of MannKind. Also, most of us (including me) seem to have a short memory here. So it always helps to check historical data. Looks like the same thing (significant PPS drop the next trading day) happened for the last offering announced in May 9, 206. MannKind Announces Pricing of Registered Direct Public Offering of Common Stock and Warrants VALENCIA, Calif., May 09, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq:MNKD) (TASE:MNKD) today announced the pricing of a registered direct public offering of up to 48,543,692 shares of common stock and warrants to purchase up to an aggregate of 48,543,692 shares of common stock to select institutional investors. Each share of common stock is being sold together with a warrant to purchase 0.75 of a share of common stock (A Warrants) and a warrant to purchase 0.25 of a share of common stock (B Warrants) for a combined purchase price of $1.03. The A Warrants will be exercisable at a price of $1.50 per share beginning upon issuance and will expire two years thereafter. The B Warrants will be exercisable at a price of $1.50 per share beginning in May 2017 and expire 18 months thereafter. The shares of common stock and the warrants will be immediately separable and will be issued separately. The offering is expected to close on or about May 12, 2016, subject to customary closing conditions. investors.mannkindcorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=970091finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNKD/history?period1=1451628000&period2=1507698000&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1dThe closing price on May 9, 2016 was $6.60 (reverse split adjusted). ( Note it was very close to the closing price of yesterday!) And then the offering was announced after hours ( just like what happened yesterday!). The offering price was $5.15 (reverse split adjusted), and guess what, where did we close the next trading day? $4.75, down 22%. ( How similar to today's closing?) PPS then reached an intra-day low of $4.25 on May 12 ( the closing date of the offering), but closed at $4.6 on May 12. PPS then basically hovered around $5 (i.e., around the offering price for the financing) for about three months until late August 2016 where it started a downward trend until that trend ended not long ago. Note that in 2016, between March 18 and March 24 (5 trading days), PPS surged to above $10 (adjusted price based on reverse split) on high volume (how similar to this week's run!) from a low of $3.30 in Jan. 8, 2016. I was surprised and disappointed that management at that time did not take advantage of the run and raise some capital.
I am very pleased that Mike and his team did take advantage of this run and raise a good sum of capital. I also noticed that the haircut of the offering price is much less this time compared with the 2016 offering (and we did not even need to attach any warranties to attract the investors this time)! That's great and seems very bullish to me! |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 11, 2017 19:13:15 GMT -5
First, I agree the sell off was overdone, but I think blame can be spread a bit more than is being done by posters. Sure, some shorts were active today, but some may have also taken the opportunity to cover. Don't sell "short" the notion that a significant number of folks who were long on MNKD took profits today. To some, much of the price appreciation now appeared orchestrated to take advantage of the label change catalyst and the ensuing run-up to raise the equity. If I were a $6 buyer of that offering, I wouldn't be pleased. I just hope there's no price adjustment in that offering - those folks can be such big whiners!Yesterday's move was so strong that notwithstanding getting a nice price for that money raise, many decided to sell. And, if nothing else, the many day traders that had been drawn to MNKD like moths to a flame over the last 7 or so trading days, probably either sat on the sidelines when hit with the news, or actually sold short on a short term basis (not our traditional shorts that hang on like barnacles). All this noise will pass soon and more fundamental news will be needed. I've become confused now. Do we actually know that any investors signed up at $6. I haven't looked into all the statements/documents but some things posted today seem to indicate this is just an offering not a done deal... and of course no one would pay a premium over market to buy shares directly. If it wasn't a done deal I would think they would have structured it to be at a price of some average of trading price over a certain number of days minus a % discount. Does anyone know which if there is any committed money? I was singing the praises of Mike earlier today when I thought this was "check is in the mail" money. Hopefully I'm now worried because of lack of info that someone can fill in. Looks like a done deal for me. Note the highlighted wording in the press release from Mannkind. investors.mannkindcorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1043467MannKind Announces $61 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock PDF Add to Briefcase WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Oct. 11, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) and (TASE:MNKD) today announced that it entered into definitive agreements with certain institutional investors and other investors in connection with a registered direct offering of an aggregate of 10,166,600 shares of common stock at an offering price of $6.00 per share, for gross proceeds of approximately $61 million. The offering is expected to close on or about October 13, 2017, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
"With this offering, we have made substantial progress in our efforts to recapitalize the company," said Michael Castagna, Chief Executive Officer of MannKind. H.C. Wainwright & Co. is acting as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. After deducting the placement agent's fees, the net proceeds to MannKind are expected to be approximately $57.7 million. MannKind intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for working capital and general corporate purposes. The shares are being offered pursuant to a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 that was previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and declared effective on April 27, 2016. A final prospectus supplement related to the offering will be filed with the SEC, and will be available on the SEC's website located at www.sec.gov and may also be obtained by contacting MannKind at 30930 Russell Ranch Road, Suite 301, Westlake Village, CA 91362, Attn: Investor Relations, or by telephone at (818) 661-5000; or from the placement agent at H.C. Wainwright & Co. LLC, 430 Park Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, New York 10022, by calling (646) 975-6996 or emailing placements@hcwco.com. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 11, 2017 14:55:22 GMT -5
I posted last night that completing the stock offering to gain $60 million was smart, smart, smart. Even after the large pps drop today, I say again smart, smart, smart. It was likely that the continuous up days was going to come to an end in the near future anyway. The pps needs to have a period of consolidation to build a new base. What Mike C. and team did was take advantage of a high share price to get top dollar on a very modest 10% dilution. What does that get us. At a burn rate of approximately $7 million a month, that's over 8 months of operating expenses. Granted there is debt due, but they may be able to renegotiate due dates for that. Add any move up in script revenue and that runway just gets longer. It's been a great week for MannKind longs. Can't agree more! I was really disappointed that Mannkind did not raise capital in 2015 and 2016 when PPS was in strong uptrend (in 2015, at around $30 (taking into account the reverse-split) and in 2016, around $10-11 (taking into account the reverse-split)). The note extension in 2015 was not handled very well and we ended up having to shell out pretty significant cash to pay off a big percentage of the notes that were due (rather than roll them over). I think a hallmark of good management of the biotech companies is to be able to take advantage of favorable PPS momentum to raise money. Mike and his team did an excellent job this time!!! They are raising money at close to 52 weeks high. At Mannkind, we are getting used to raising money at close to 52 weeks low. Remember, a few weeks ago, some of the members here were openly stating that Mannkind can not raise any money, period, as the PPS is too low. And many more probably were ready to accept a dilution at a PPS around $1-2. At a PPS of $1, to raise $60 million, we will need about a 60% dilution. Think about that! |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 11, 2017 10:28:58 GMT -5
I have been looking for Matt.
Where could Matt have been from?
His ability to recount the exact mechanics of debt agreements and bankruptcies, complete with anticipated filing dates.
Where could Matt have been from?
He is gone. I saw him once at the label change, and then vamoose, moose.
Interesting gig.
Any change at spencer seeking alpha only looking at balance sheet, not efficacy of the product spencer?
13,863,422/100,000,000 traded today so far. 2 1/2 hours of trade. 5.26 plus 30 cents. plus 6% Do not worry. Proboard Matt will come back when we are in a down day. Here comes a down day and our dear Proboard Matt is back. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 11, 2017 0:22:56 GMT -5
He must have meant 50% of the available 22 mil shares Also note that Mike has option to issue 10 million preferred shares. So that could also bring in additional funds to extend the runway, if needed. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 10, 2017 15:59:21 GMT -5
The rate of 60% remains despite the run-up. I was anticipating a change. But they are paying 60% of $6-7, instead of 60% of $1-2. Huge difference. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 10, 2017 14:26:21 GMT -5
Playing with the numbers a little bit.
An update of the above calculation based on the second quarter numbers: My understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the second quarter was $1.8 million. [They reported 1.5 million, but said there was a 0.3 million one-time fee to wholesale distributor that would not occur in the future. So we can deem the actual revenue for the 2nd quarter as 1.8 million, rather than 1.5 million]. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,836. A total net revenue divided by 3,836 results in $469. As the management explained, they are getting more revenue per script for various factors. So we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets at $469 out of each script. Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 3,444 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. Playing with the numbers a little bit. Let's do an updated calculation using the latest symphony numbers for the week of 9/15.TRX 428 (+30.5% WoW) NRX 244 (+37%) Refills 184 (+22.7%) TRX$ 372k$ (+39.3%) The above numbers means that the per script gross revenue for the week of 9/19 is $372,000/428 = $869. If I recall corrected, on the second quarter conference call, the management mentioned that the gross to net discount is about 65%. So the net revenue if the week of 9/15 is somewhere around $869 x 65% = $565. So, based on the latest numbers for the week of 9/15, we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets somewhere around $565 out of each script.Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 2,859 TRx per week to break even ($84,000,000 / 52 / 565 = 2,859).The last three weeks' per script sales numbers are $869, $866 and $860. Seems to be very consistent. If we are holding at this level going forward, then the break-even weekly script number of around 2,800/2,900 should also hold. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 10, 2017 13:56:01 GMT -5
An update on the third quarter TRx growth rate vs 2nd quarter as of today (September 29, 2017). During the Mannkind second quarter conference call, Mannkind's Chief Commercial Officer, Patrick McCauley noted: In addition our TRx prescriptions grew 23% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2017. seekingalpha.com/article/4096149-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleBased on the Afrezza sales data as reported by Symphony and maintained on this site, the 2nd quarter Afrezza TRx is 3,836. For the third quarter, with another week's number to be added (and assuming that week's numbers is similar to the numbers reported this morning for the last week), Mannkind looks like to be on track to hit somewhere around 4,850. That will be around a 26% growth rate in TRx vs 2nd quarter. Based on the above, it appears the growth rate of TRx in the 2nd and third quarters have been very consistent. An update on the third quarter TRx growth rate vs 2nd quarter as of October 10, 2017. Based on the Afrezza sales data as reported by Symphony and maintained on this site, the first quarter Afrezza TRx is 3,203. For the second quarter, it is 3,836. So it is a 19% growth rate in TRx vs 1st quarter. Based on the Afrezza sales data as reported by Symphony and maintained on this site, the 2nd quarter Afrezza TRx is 3,836. For the third quarter, it is 4,875. So it is a 27% growth rate in TRx vs 2nd quarter. Based on the above, it appears the growth rate of TRx in the 2nd and third quarters have been very consistent. |
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