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Post by compound26 on Nov 10, 2017 14:31:17 GMT -5
Mike on the STAT trial: The next trial is called the APEC Study this is a Type I patient experience trial that we expect to start enrolling in early 2018. This trial as well as the pediatric Phase 3 trial will be influenced by the outcomes of the STAT study. The STAT study for those of you who don't know was a time and range trial looking at using Afrezza with CGM head to head against mealtime influence. This is a pilot study that was started in July and completed in the month of November. We will present these results in 2018 and hopefully we will understand them shortly. So there was also this trial that will really help influence how we think about the design and execution of other larger Type I study that we are looking to execute. The completion of the STAT trial would give us very clear direction as we think about the next set of investments we make. seekingalpha.com/article/4122005-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 10, 2017 13:55:53 GMT -5
The ADA has been traditionally when the industry is all there attending the Study sessions about new findings. They gather the big thought leaders to present the study materials. I think the STAT results will come out much earlier than that this time. On the CC, Mike mentioned several times that the results of the STAT trial will guide them on the other trials that are being run or planned. In that sense, they will need to have the complete results of the STAT trial as soon as possible. Plus, it seems to me Mike does not think ADA has much impact on the actual prescribing habits of the doctors here in the States as a lot of the participants are from overseas. In the ADA this year, Mike was very reluctant in having Mannkind attending ADA. And the several ADAs that Mannkind attended so far seem to have little impact in terms of scripts uptick trajectory. |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 9, 2017 14:26:32 GMT -5
As a long time Mannkind investor before the RS I had 122,000 shares. After the RS less than 6,000. I bought more shares after the RS. Now I might lose 50% or more. Wow. I'm not a company investing in Mannkind but an average person who believes in the product. Do not know what I will do if we have another RS? Did you sell most of your shares right after RS? Since the RS is 5 for 1, if you owned 122,000 shares right before RS, you should end up with 24,400 shares right after RS, not 6,000 shares. |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 9, 2017 14:10:55 GMT -5
Agree! I think he is executing perfectly and getting great advice from his management team, Board and outside advisors. Can MannKind pull off what Exact Sciences has achieved since starting advertising?
Look at the PPS of Exact Sciences on March 1, 2016 trading at $5.05 per share. Today its about $59.00 per shares. They needed capital just like MannKind did to get over the hump.
Do you know how much capital? I think when Nate talked about his $27 target, he had factored in 30% dilution. So that’s what I expect. @sportsrancho I personally do not think we need to dilute beyond 30%. As management pointed out, the running rate (of Afrezza shipment) as of now is $24 million annually. If we continue the current growth rate (or even higher with Ads campaign kicked in), I see real chance of cash flow break even by end of 2019. Another $100 million from an equity raise, plus the ever growing cash generated from Afrezza shipment, will do the trick. If we can do an offering at $10, that's another 10 million shares. At $5, that's another 20 million shares. And that's not counting any other cash sources that Mike has mentioned. |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 9, 2017 13:34:26 GMT -5
KC, I think Mannkind management has a well laid out plan and is executing it well.
Mike mentioned in the CC that some of the actions they are taking may not have an immediate effect on the earnings, but we will realize they are import when we look in the rearview mirror a few quarters from now.
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Post by compound26 on Nov 9, 2017 12:15:56 GMT -5
KC, you are right. Mannkind management is indeed looking to EXAS as the playbook. EXAS tested its TV ads initially in 5 markets and saw great success in 5 weeks. Now Mannkind is testing its TV ads in 9 markets and I believe it is doing this for 8 weeks (the last 8 weeks of the 4th quarter of 2017).  www.slideshare.net/exactsciences/roth-capital-partners-28th-annual-roth-conference Published on Mar 15, 2016 Also note that the effect of the TV ads campaign was very clear. EXAS' sales growth was slowing down significantly before the TV ad campaign (the growth in the immediate preceding quarter was only from $14.4 million to $14.8 million) and the growth rate kicked into high gear right after the TV ad campaign (the growth in the immediate following quarter was from $14.8 million to $21.2 million).  |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 8, 2017 23:42:44 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Nov 8, 2017 14:46:52 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Nov 8, 2017 11:57:36 GMT -5
Yes, my bad... authorized. Coffee hasn't yet sunk in. So management was foolish enough to ask to authorize 140M, sending stock price sharply down, angering at least some of their investors (who might even vote against it), when there is only a 0.0001% chance they'll need them? Granted right now we're a few million away from having issued the full 140M already authorized, so if you're simply meaning that it unlikely we'll hit that 140M precisely you are right. In reality they'll have some sitting around for the employee stock option pool which are never used. But that is missing the point. How many are you expecting will get used? I guess they'll have your vote, not because you think using the 140M would be wise or fair, but because you just know deep down they wouldn't do that to you... actually use them after you say they can? Just because they've done it before... this time will be different. Management really loves us and I'm sure they are sorry for all the past dilution. DBC, I'm gonna cut you some slack cuz you're probably reeling from what's going on in China, and I don't mean with Trump, but consider your last two posts on this thread and consider the situation in which the company finds itself. That's all I'll say. Seems like our dear DBC is having a mini nervous breakdown.  Just joking. To me basically nothing has changed from before the CC and after the CC. As for the additionally authorized shares. Think about it, we were trading at $0.67 at some point earlier this year. And before the recent run up to $6 plus and offering at $6, the PPS was around $1-2. So I am happy to think we did an offering at $1 for the capital we recently raised and notes exchanged. Thinking in that way, we would have issued 65 million plus shares to do that, versus around 11 million shares actually issued so far. So, in terms of dilution, I am fine before they ACTUALLY issue another 54 millions out of those 140 million additionally authorized shares. But if these 54 millions shares bring in $200 million plus cash, I am fine with management issue even more shares out of those 140 million additionally authorized shares. |
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Post by compound26 on Nov 3, 2017 9:43:07 GMT -5
relaxing is for pussies. 571,514 shares in 18 minutes. I am waiting for take off, $3.38 presently. price could go to $4.50 today. we will see. hopefully not famous last words.
or since price is trapped at 3.40, Monday.
1,009,274 shares in 41 mins. 3.50, 3.55, 3.62, 3.68, 3.75, 3.84, the prior highs, the stops that need to be taken out.
Here is another example of a recent 16yr bio breakout with paradigm changing capabilities...sometimes the patience pays off     That's a beautiful chart of EXAS. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 30, 2017 17:39:56 GMT -5
How do you know who helped? If you are implying Matt then what’s the new CFO doing and why would he sit silent if some one else is stepping in his job Why do you assume he sat "silent?" I assume they worked together. I do not think Matt is sitting there doing nothing and collecting his pay. Based on this post: mnkd.proboards.com/post/107516 Matt was actively working on a few items as of the annual shareholder meeting (May 18/2017)(right before Mike was publicly announced to replace him as CEO). I think at that point of time (May 18/2017), Matt already knew that Mike was going to replace him as CEO. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 26, 2017 11:31:02 GMT -5
This has been chief among my concerns beyond financing. The financing had to be in place to keep the company running but beyond that we need to move product. This really bothers me that we haven't seen more success. Yes, there are arguments about insurance coverage etc., etc. but we should still see better sales by now in my opinion. I would love to hear from Reps. what they are hearing in the field from doctors. DM me:-) As long as we see stead growth of TRx, even if it is slow, I am not concerned. Whether we break even in one year, two years or three years. That will be fine with me. Many people here are expecting exponential growth of scripts now or at some point. I do not expect that to happen. Of course, if it happens, I will be overwhelmed. However, exponential growth is not what I expect and IMHO Mannkind can succeed with current trajectory (small stead growth month to month (or over 4-week rolling periods)). To sum up, I am not disappointed at the current scripts growth trajectory. And I do not share the view that if our growth does not pick up quickly Mannkind will start losing their current reps. If our growth remains at the current rate, we will be doing just fine. kimi just gave the projected TRx using the current growth trajectory and got the following numbers (see the original post here: mnkd.proboards.com/post/127638): 26 weeks: 651 52 weeks: 1014 --> projected annual sales $45 Mill 104 weeks: 2459 --> p.a.s. §108 Mill If that will be the actual numbers we will get, I am totally fine with that. And if the above math shows that we are not on track to meet the lower end of management's projection for 2H2017 revenue, I am fine with that. And if our management needs to lower that guidance at upcoming conference call, I am fine with that too. To me, the only requirement for the management is that we are on track to break even eventually. I just want them to finish the race. I do not need them to break any record. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 23, 2017 17:03:32 GMT -5
Side note: MannKind doesn't give up.  Got back from my Endo today with an A1C of 6.4 down from 7.3 6 months ago. On the wall in the examining room was a digital billboard (2'x3') that touted numerous treatments for diabetes. I believe the third one in the rotation was AFREZZA. Since my Endo is a prescriber, researcher and user, I shouldn't have been surprised but I was. Nice advertising.
During that same 6 months I've lost 40 lbs. Some time let me tell you about the virtues of wokking for diabetics. Trade in some of your other carbs for rice. 
Welcome back! WOW. This is unbelievable. Don't tell me you are going from 800 lbs to 760 lbs. Please consider also sharing this great success story on Twitter. I guess there a lot PWDs who would like to shed a few pounds. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 23, 2017 9:26:31 GMT -5
Bear raid but the buyers will soon show up on today's trading, IMO. Agree. The shorts are always trying to do a bear raid at the opening, especially when there is some good news announced. They have done this numerous times on MNKD over the last several years. I think we will more likely be up (rather than down) a bit by closing today. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 20, 2017 10:14:51 GMT -5
compound, I do not check loan rate and #available to borrow every day. So no need to LOL. I was referring to a time span of ~ 3 years. I agree with you that the number of shares available to borrow is probably pretty high right now compared with the level historically. |
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Just joking. 
