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Post by compound26 on Oct 5, 2017 7:39:43 GMT -5
Added some Jan. 19 $4 calls to my position.
Won't sell any below $10. May sell a bit at around $10.
Will only sell the majority at $20-25 or above or upon a buy-out.
IMHO, the fair value of MNKD is $20-25 right now, which can be achieved by a peak annual sale of Afrezza at $200 million gross, with $100 million profit and a PE at 20. Mannkind will easily reach this target by just being a niche player in any of the following markets: the pediatric market, PWDs using CGMs/Freestyle Libre/Ond Drop, and PWDs using Afrezza as a supplement to RAAs (just to correct high BGs).
And the above does not even take into account the international market and the other TS applications. So I am in full agreement with Nate in that the fair value for MNKD is a market cap of $1-3 billion right now ($10-30 PPS).
And if Afrezza actually becomes a major player in the diabetes market in general, i.e., successfully grabbing a substantial market share from RAAs, then the sky is the limit. Just think about it, what if tiny little MNKD has a $500 million annual profit? Where will the PPS be at?
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Post by compound26 on Oct 4, 2017 17:17:25 GMT -5
Agree.  |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 4, 2017 17:00:16 GMT -5
NADA means "nothing". Doctors would be less inclined to prescribe a medication from a company about to lose it's place on the Nasdaq. With label change MNKD is headed in the right direction as the market is revealing it's interpretation of what the FDA decision means for the future of MNKD. Bet against a paradigm shift as big as this is and / or could be and NADA will be exactly what get. So, you deny that they have kicked the can down the road for a few more months? You deny that the cash position of the company is still precarious? You have any idea of how many scripts and refills are required for profitability? The op said that BK isn't going to happen. I'm glad you have a crystal ball. I'll wait to make that judgement after we get financing and become profitable. Until financing is in place and profitability is attained you cannot rule out BK in the future. But what do I know? By your logic, even if we are profitable in one year, we could be unprofitable in the next year. You can never rule out BK even if you are profitable. We are all going to die, soon or later. At least I am certain about that. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 4, 2017 13:55:19 GMT -5
I guess we will know soon enough what Mike is up to. I can only hold to my core belief that any re-capitalization, financing deal, partnership etc. will only be good if they can increase sales. Otherwise it's a temporary fix. Our problems will only be resolved once Afrezza is accepted in the marketplace. I wish good luck to everyone tomorrow. You are wishing everyone good luck. Does that everyone include yourself? Seems like you have sold out MNKD and not holding any at the moment. |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 1, 2017 23:41:55 GMT -5
I believe someone already mentioned the most likely scenario is a combination of good news from CEO about label Improvement and bad (obvious) news from CFO about dilution. Money has to come from somewhere and they can't wait any longer. Also I don't remember if we've been introduced to the new CFO. I might have missed a conference call on that. It would be nice to hear some good news yes yes yes. Well, PB Matt did say that MNKD needs to have some sort of financing done by 9/30....since 9/30 was on a weekend then 10/2 might be it.... Didn't his posts basically implied that we are game over by Thanksgivings 2016 and then again by August 15, 2017? |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 29, 2017 11:43:45 GMT -5
compound26 ... some valid points. I'd add in the challenge that more and more doctors offices have "no rep" policies. That works against a newcomer. And of course being a newcomer with one drug makes getting formulary placement an issue, so doctors know some of their patients can't get Afrezza at all and others will require the doc to deal with PA. It is interesting... Sports gives you 10 thumbs up. If I'd posted the exact same list of "challenges" hindering sales, I think I would have gotten attacked for "soft bashing".  Sports is encourage members like me (who are relatively less productive like you and her  ) to post more so that we can catch you in terms of our productivity on this board. That's sportswomenship! |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 29, 2017 10:41:05 GMT -5
It takes months before physicians get on board after being introduced to a new drug. It seems to me that the efforts of MannKind's sales force for months to cultivate new accounts is starting to bear fruit. Absolutely agree. I think many on this board probably underestimated the challenges Mannkind sales representatives are facing. Here are a few that I can imagine that they are facing. 1. out-numbered. Mannkind vs Sanofi (about 1:5).
That probably means larger area to cover and more time spent on the road. As Mannkind noted, before the current expansion of sales force, Mannkind sales force often have to spend several hours driving from one appointment to another.
2. less budget.
Mannkind sales force apparently have much less resources to spend. That will likely limit their access to the doctors.
3. less swag.
I can imagine it will be much easier to get an appointment with the doctors if the sales rep is from Sanofi (or for that matter, any other BP) vs from Mannkind.
4. cross selling
In addition to resources and swag, a doctor may also be prescribing other drugs of a big BP (like Sanofi) and therefore is more likely to be influenced by a sales rep from Sanofi (or for that matter, any other BP) vs from Mannkind.
5. Financial standing
Some prescribers may be worried about Mannkind's financial standing, which will not be the case if they are dealing with Sanofi.
What the above shows is that what Michael said (that had Sanofi kept on going for it, Afrezza sales will be $30 million to $50 million a year drug in the first 12 to 18 months of launch) is very reasonable and most likely would have been be the case. I kindly of think if Sanofi hadn't had the CEO switch, these may be the numbers we were looking at.
Here is what Michael said on the 2nd quarter conference call:
If Sanofi just had kept the foot on the gas with Afrezza, you'll see when you look at Pat section, the success trends over Afrezza would have continued to grow throughout 2016 and 2017. This would have been easily if $30 million to $50 million a year drug in the first 12 to 18 months of launch had we just cut executing.
seekingalpha.com/article/4096149-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
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Post by compound26 on Sept 29, 2017 9:40:42 GMT -5
An update on the third quarter TRx growth rate vs 2nd quarter as of today (September 29, 2017). During the Mannkind second quarter conference call, Mannkind's Chief Commercial Officer, Patrick McCauley noted: In addition our TRx prescriptions grew 23% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2017. seekingalpha.com/article/4096149-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleBased on the Afrezza sales data as reported by Symphony and maintained on this site, the 2nd quarter Afrezza TRx is 3,836. For the third quarter, with another week's number to be added (and assuming that week's numbers is similar to the numbers reported this morning for the last week), Mannkind looks like to be on track to hit somewhere around 4,850. That will be around a 26% growth rate in TRx vs 2nd quarter. Based on the above, it appears the growth rate of TRx in the 2nd and third quarters have been very consistent. |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 29, 2017 9:31:25 GMT -5
An update on the sales numbers vs Mannkind projections as of today (September 29, 2017).
Based on the Afrezza sales data as reported by Symphony and maintained on this site, the 2nd quarter Afrezza gross sales is about $2,871,000.
For the third quarter, with another week's number to be added (and assuming that week's numbers is similar to the numbers reported this morning for the last week), Mannkind looks like to be on track to hit somewhere around $4,000,000. That will represent about a 40% increase vs 2nd quarter.
Assuming they can maintain this 40% growth rate, the 4th quarter Afrezza gross sales will be around $5,600,000.
Based on these assumptions, in total, they will be doing around $9.56 million for 2nd half of 2017.
As for net sales, if we reduce the gross sales by 35% as noted by Steven, the 2nd half net sales will be around $6.2 million.
These numbers, while not stellar numbers, fall right within the projections made by Steven during the Mannkind second quarter conference call.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 25, 2017 15:45:20 GMT -5
I mean it would seem with the debt load and the valuation from hell for the technology in this moment, MNKD's future for now hinges on the label change. That seems to be what is priced in no?
5 days, 6 days for the decision?
What do you mean?
Added: (I can not believe physicians can not order the insulin they want. the market controlled. It has been a learning experience.) Sep. 23 at 6:51 PM NatesNotes Nate Pile @addiction2money @ironmoss no doubt a label change will help accelerate things, but a lack of change won't hurt current trajectory... stocktwits.com/NatesNotes |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 25, 2017 15:38:14 GMT -5
In my opinion if we get a favorable label from the FDA and the stock goes up past 3 dollars after we can sell the preferred shares it kicks the can down the road for six more months. Mike better make the 2h income targets and then a longer term dillution will occur with an even higher stock price. Deerfield gets paid out and we no longer have that monkey on our back. If the label does not substantially improve it will be game over. you are correct well said
On this board, over the last few years, I have read so many times "if ....... does not happen, then it will be game over." And if I recall correctly, a lot of times, ....... actually did not happen, and yet game is still going on as of today. And I recall Thanksgiving 2016 and August 15, 2017 were among the several dates that were mentioned on this board as the more likely days that by such date the game will be over. |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 22, 2017 10:11:16 GMT -5
@sportsrancho since you asked, here are my thoughts. My understanding is that the sales amount reported by Symphony and IMS is not the real revenue that Mannkind receives. At least, the sales amount they report does not take out rebates that Mannkind has to be pay the payors. See this Forbes article for more detail. So I would prefer use the net revenue reported by Mannkind. I do not know what constitutes "net revenue" for Mannkind's case. But seems like this explanation makes senses to me. Assuming this is true, this means the net revenue reported by Mannkind already takes into account all the discounts it offered to users. Per Mannkind's 1st quarter conference call transcripts, "our total net revenue for the first quarter of 2017 was $3 million which included $1.8 million from the sale of surplus bulk insulin to a third-party and $1.2 million of recognized Afrezza product dispensed to patients, after giving effect to gross to net adjustments of $0.4 million." So my understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the first quarter was $1.2 million, after taking out $0.4 million rebates to the payors. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,203. A total net revenue divided by 3,203 results in $375. So we can assume Mannkind gets $375 out of each script. Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even.However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above.
An update of the above calculation based on the second quarter numbers: My understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the second quarter was $1.8 million. [They reported 1.5 million, but said there was a 0.3 million one-time fee to wholesale distributor that would not occur in the future. So we can deem the actual revenue for the 2nd quarter as 1.8 million, rather than 1.5 million]. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,836. A total net revenue divided by 3,836 results in $469. As the management explained, they are getting more revenue per script for various factors. So we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets at $469 out of each script. Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 3,444 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. Playing with the numbers a little bit. Let's do an updated calculation using the latest symphony numbers for the week of 9/15.TRX 428 (+30.5% WoW) NRX 244 (+37%) Refills 184 (+22.7%) TRX$ 372k$ (+39.3%) The above numbers means that the per script gross revenue for the week of 9/19 is $372,000/428 = $869. If I recall corrected, on the second quarter conference call, the management mentioned that the gross to net discount is about 65%. So the net revenue if the week of 9/15 is somewhere around $869 x 65% = $565. So, based on the latest numbers for the week of 9/15, we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets somewhere around $565 out of each script.Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 2,859 TRx per week to break even ($84,000,000 / 52 / 565 = 2,859). |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 22, 2017 6:25:20 GMT -5
Just heard on the morning news Puerto Rico won't have electricity for weeks and has no way to keep insulin refrigerated. Huge problem. Mannkind is on a Federal schedule through the VA. FEMA today could do an emergency purchase through this schedule to get the needed afrezza to save lives. Mike may want to make some calls and let them know. Good idea. |
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Post by compound26 on Sept 7, 2017 9:46:34 GMT -5
Can you provide a link to the news or other source? |
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Post by compound26 on Aug 29, 2017 20:58:47 GMT -5
many months ago, when Ray first mentioned the paperwork had been done and submitted for new label, ray said, august. in the conference call now days he is saying sept. translation = any day now. September 30, 2017 has been confirmed as the PDUFA date by the management a couple times now. So we can just use that date as the assumed date. |
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) to post more so that we can catch you in terms of our productivity on this board. 
