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Post by compound26 on Aug 3, 2017 12:42:33 GMT -5
Yes i heard Mannkind will be bankrupt within the next few days, i heard it here on Proboards - it must be true. Yes, I recall reading that. The date was predicted to be Thanksgiving 2016 and then updated to be August 15, 2017. I was extremely nervous before Thanksgiving 2016 and now again as we are approaching August 15, 2017.  |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 19, 2017 17:49:53 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance, what is this Pattens Afrezza FB page? I don't have FB but ( Patten ) a member here, has had a Afrezza FB page for over a year. ( I think Sam and Hillard do also )... Can we do a search for interest in Afrezza on Google for the last month? I can't seem to do it. @liane @sportsrancho I see. It is the following Facebook group: www.facebook.com/groups/1650389468546952/?ref=br_rs |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 19, 2017 17:05:55 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance, what is this Pattens Afrezza FB page? I don't have FB but ( Patten ) a member here, has had a Afrezza FB page for over a year. ( I think Sam and Hillard do also )... Can we do a search for interest in Afrezza on Google for the last month? I can't seem to do it. Try this one: www.semrush.com/info/afrezza.com |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 19, 2017 16:53:09 GMT -5
There are so many tweets I can't keep up! I just heard there was a jump of 20-30 people joining Pattens Afrezza FB page. Just talked to him. Make that 50! Forgive my ignorance, what is this Pattens Afrezza FB page? |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 18, 2017 18:36:17 GMT -5
Me too. I think it is much better than the Sanofi one. |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 18, 2017 18:30:33 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jul 17, 2017 10:46:11 GMT -5
My guess is that after four years in Singapore they decided to pull him out. Three years is the norm for an expat assignment and it is sad but true that roughly 70% of repatriating expats move to a new job outside their former company within six months. This can happen because the home office did not carve out a job for him, because he was unknown in the home office because he went from BMS straight to Singapore (which makes networking tough), or his family loved the lush tropical beauty of Singapore and was not willing to trade that for Kalamazoo, Michigan (a town that has seen better days). I know Stryker well, have done business with them, and even interviewed with the head office for an expat job myself. Stryker is a very good company, but you really have to want to live in rural Michigan and enjoy snowy winters. Less than a month now until your 'maybe' bankruptcy announcement prediction. We are all staying tuned. mnkd.proboards.com/post/109046It isn't less than one month from now. matt has basically predicted Mannkind bankrupt as of Thanksgiving 2016. I believe many on this board remember that. mnkd.proboards.com/post/82986 |
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Post by compound26 on Jul 12, 2017 10:20:38 GMT -5
Every time I play with compounding, it amazes me. For your entertainment, I present you with the results of my playing MNKD numbers.
Assumptions:
Growth rate: 5% weekly. Retention rate on new prescription: 50% of new prescriptions after 4 weeks. Retention rate on existing refills: 50% of new prescriptions after 4 weeks.
So, my new prescription is 5% higher than the previous week. My refill is the sum of 50% of total prescriptions 4 weeks ago.
Facts:
new prescriptions: 184.75 (4 week average up to 6/30) refill prescriptions: 152.75 (4 week average up to 6/30) price: 773.33 (4 week average up to 6/30) -- Surprise#1 We are NOT cheap at all.
Rough facts:
Cash on hand at 6/30: 30M (?) Cash burn: $7M a quarter amounts to $7M/13 weeks. Add back $261,000 weekly revenue now, expenses is $799,462 per week.
With these numbers, I was trying to find out when we will run out of cash.
To my surprise, I could not. My spreadsheet tells me that Surprise#2 WE WILL NEVER RUN OUT CASH! In fact, our cash balance will reach its lowest point on week of 12/22/2017 at $21,753,908.50. Our maximum cash draw down was only $8.2M. We start to clime after that, just ready for Xmas.
Surprise#3: Our cashflow positive point can be achieved by selling only 1034 prescription.
My questions for these interested: Do you think this is a realistic scenario? If not, which number will you challenge? Suggestions, critical ones included, are welcome.
Merry Xmas! Have a feast, but don't forget your Afrezza.
@sportsrancho since you asked, here are my thoughts. My understanding is that the sales amount reported by Symphony and IMS is not the real revenue that Mannkind receives. At least, the sales amount they report does not take out rebates that Mannkind has to be pay the payors. See this Forbes article for more detail. So I would prefer use the net revenue reported by Mannkind. I do not know what constitutes "net revenue" for Mannkind's case. But seems like this explanation makes senses to me. Assuming this is true, this means the net revenue reported by Mannkind already takes into account all the discounts it offered to users. Per Mannkind's 1st quarter conference call transcripts, "our total net revenue for the first quarter of 2017 was $3 million which included $1.8 million from the sale of surplus bulk insulin to a third-party and $1.2 million of recognized Afrezza product dispensed to patients, after giving effect to gross to net adjustments of $0.4 million." So my understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the first quarter was $1.2 million, after taking out $0.4 million rebates to the payors. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,203. A total net revenue divided by 3,203 results in $375. So we can assume Mannkind gets $375 out of each script. Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. |
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Post by compound26 on Jun 29, 2017 16:24:50 GMT -5
I was discussing with someone else on this board earlier today. I think the one-drop subscription model could work very well with PWDs who just want to use Afrezza for corrections.
So you can have someone at VDEX (who is willing to write Afrezza scripts) writing scripts remotely and then ship to those PWDs Afrezza up to a certain number of boxes per month (or per year if they pay the annual subscription fee in our payment).
You can use a credit system to simplify things. So for example, if they pay an annual subscription fee of $1,200 (that translates to $100 a month), you can convert that into 12 or 24 credits. Each time they used up their inventory of Afrezza at hand and need a new shipment of Afrezza, you will apply 1, 2 or 3 credits depending on how many units the shipment contains.
So in essence, this works very much like the subscription service I get from Audible.com (now part of Amazon).
Now if a PWD used up his/her 12/24 credits in less than 12 months, he/she can then either pay cash to order Afrezza at a discounted price (say getting a 30% discount by being a subscription service member) or elects to renew his/her annual membership earlier (less than 12 months) and get another 12/24 credits.
I think the above subscription model could work very well with PWDs who just want to use Afrezza for corrections because their usage of Afrezza will be more limited and therefore a relatively low subscription price (say $1,200 a year (that translates to $100 a month)) can work with both such PWDs and Mannkind.
Of course, for PWDs who need more Afrezza, we can have a tiered subscription services. E.g., $100/month limited to one box per month, $150/month limited to two boxes per month, $200/month limited to three boxes per month, etc. [The numbers are just for illustration purposes as I have not crunched the numbers yet.]
Just something for your consideration.
What do you all think?
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Post by compound26 on Jun 29, 2017 9:41:14 GMT -5
I like it! Just disappointed it's only a small push out. Maybe we'll see incremental pushes based on progress of sales? As long as we see continued growth in sales, at minimum we will get incremental pushes provided by Deerfield. |
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Post by compound26 on Jun 29, 2017 9:21:25 GMT -5
If you are a Mannkind creditor, you would like to see them succeed. If Mannkind goes bankrupt, the creditors receive a lot less money. To receive shares at a relatively high price of 1.37 does show the creditors believe a turn around could be occurring. That does put a temporary floor on the stock price. I think if Mankind shows a rise in scripts again this week, the share price should be between the original .80 cents to a dollar before the 5 for 1 split or between 4 and 5 dollars now. Maybe the creditors know something about the sales figure coming out tomorrow? I believe the conversion price between the notes and the shares is basically 90% of the share price of the preceding trading day. The $1.395 conversion price is 90% of $1.55, which is yesterday's PPS at close. I think the same conversion formula was used for the last conversion in April. I believe Mannkind and Deerfield have been in discussion about debt restructuring for quite some time and this conversion formula has been agreed long ago. As to the specific conversion price for a particular conversion, it just depends on when the two companies finally decide to ink the conversion and where the PPS was on the preceding trading day. |
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Post by compound26 on Jun 29, 2017 9:10:31 GMT -5
Compound26, Please make it clear if this is what you wrote to pfeffer or if some of this came from pfeffer.thank you. , what I wrote in my post above is what I wrote to Matt Pfeffer as I prefer to not quote anything Matt wrote to me. |
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Post by compound26 on Jun 29, 2017 9:02:15 GMT -5
If no one else steps in, I believe Deerfield will provide further funding by September/October as long as we see continued growth in scripts. This July debt extension is as we have expected and I believe Matt Pfeffer has been working on it for quite some time.
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I had some email correspondences with Matt Pfeffer in April.
Here is what I wrote to Matt on April 24:
Since the May notes payment has already been addressed, I think Deefield is now in a watching mode. If the scripts show a continued upward trend in the next 4-6 weeks, say, if the scripts go over 300s and then 400 in the next few weeks, it is not unlikely that Deerfield may choose to extend the July note payment date and provide an additional financing of $25 to $30 million (which will represent about 25% additional investment for Deerfield).
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I think Deerfield now holds about $85 million notes and 8 millions shares of Mannkind after the recent debt restructuring. Deerfield’s interest is quite aligned with Mannkind at this moment. (If Mannkind is forced to BK, there is no guarantee that Deerfield will be made whole. On the other hand, if Mannkind survives and succeeds, Deerfield will benefit handsomely.)
Now that the July debt is extended and Deerfield has agreed to reduce the minimum cash holding requirement from $25 million to $10 million (which in effect is providing an additional $15 million funding), I believe if no one else steps in by September/October, Deerfield will provide further funding by then as long as we see continued growth in scripts.
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Post by compound26 on Jun 28, 2017 14:01:15 GMT -5
I think these two questions are related. The poster on SA has posited that the Mann Group assets consist principally of MNKD shares. When the Mann Group was created years ago, the price of MNKD was much higher and so the value of the Mann Group, but after the reverse split the 89 million shares (as reported in the March proxy) are now 17.8 million shares. Those are not worth $30.1 million if they were sold today, so one easy way to "use up" the credit line is to capitalize the interest on the balance sheet into the principal balance. To answer the second question, the company only nets $19 million in new cash. This begs two questions: 1. Where is Mike going to get the money to meet the Deerfield debt covenant come September 30? This transaction pretty much destroys the possibility of making it to September without a default if no additional money is raised since it would have been a squeaker even if the full $30.1 million were still available in cash. 2. Does the Mann Group have the $19 million in cash needed to fund this draw-down, or will they have to sell some or all of their MNKD stock to raise it? As a private entity we really don't know what the rest of their balance sheet looks like, but if they are cash poor they may have negotiated to roll the accrued and unpaid interest into the note as that does not require cash from either side. There could be a lot of shares hitting the market in the coming days if they need to raise the rest of the cash. What is clear is that the company needs some new financing options to materialize very quickly. It seems Deerfield has drawn a line in the sand and there will be not more money coming from that source, and now the Mann Group is tapped out as well. Matt, you and reverselo may be correct regarding Deerfield, but there is another possibility. Another partial cash payment and partial exchange for stock, as in April, could require MNKD to obtain the cash through the Mann loan. Frankly, I do not know which way it will go. What I do know is that the last time MNKD engaged Greenhill, we got the Sanofi deal. I hope they do better this time. The question I have is: Does hiring Greenhill mean that MNKD is already in serious discussions with a potential partner and needs advice on structuring the deal or that MNKD is desperate to find someone interested in partnering?I think what Matt P. stated below (when Mannkind engaged Greenhill last time) probably can help us understand what Greenhill will be able to do for Mannknind. By the way, I do not think Mannkind got a bad deal with Sanofi. I is just unfortunate that there was a CEO change at Sanofi after the partnership agreement was signed. MannKind's Management Presents at Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference (Transcript)seekingalpha.com/article/1685672-mannkinds-management-presents-at-morgan-stanley-healthcare-conference-transcriptSeptember 10, 2013 3:30 PM ET Executives Matthew J. Pfeffer – Corporate Vice President and Chief Financial Officer The other question everybody always ask about is partnering, we do expect to ultimately partner this product. And we did announce during the call where we presented the results that we started a formal process, which is sort of code word for how that moves forward and engaged an external advisor Greenhill to help us with that effort given we’re a relatively small company and a relatively compact business development group, it’s nice to have some people who have done this a bunch more times than we have helping guide the process. This is not identifying partners, obviously we’ve been speaking to most of these folks for a long time. It’s really kind of sheparding the process through helping us with some of the analyses and making sure we get the best deal possible. |
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Post by compound26 on Jun 28, 2017 9:53:02 GMT -5
That but it's also do or die.... It's always "do or die" when operating a business. right ?? I think it has been a 'do or die" projection for every coming month/quarter in the last two years. |
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