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Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 0:33:14 GMT -5
Geezus, people, act like you been there before (even if you haven't!). Let's move on to what the market will do tomorrow, and then Tuesday and the deal is explained further in the CC!
A nice surprise, let the negative articles begin - they have that much more time to think them up.
Do you guys trust the French? LOL!
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 0:33:24 GMT -5
I might be a little disappointed-'a 65% to 35% split seems much better for Sanofi with only $150 mill upfront
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 0:37:18 GMT -5
I don't trust the dam Frenchmen!
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 0:39:19 GMT -5
Geezus, people, act like you been there before (even if you haven't!). Let's move on to what the market will do tomorrow, and then Tuesday and the deal is explained further in the CC! A nice surprise, let the negative articles begin - they have that much more time to think them up. Do you guys trust the French? LOL! Baba- give us youngsters some advice- what are you thinking right now.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 0:41:55 GMT -5
Great news about a large company like Sanofi, but terms don't seem as good as I would of expected? Anyone else agree?? Only $150M upfront and 65% goes to Sanofi and 35% to MNKD? There is a potential to receive another $775M. MNKD invested 10 years and 2 Billion to only receive $150M and keep 35% share of sales? Is anyone else slightly disappointed? The split is certainly just about what most reasonable people believed it would be. I'm a bit disappointed in the up front payment. The big question is, does anyone dare call Spiro and wake him for this - I think not.
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Post by jpg on Aug 11, 2014 0:42:37 GMT -5
Great news about a large company like Sanofi, but terms don't seem as good as I would of expected? Anyone else agree?? Only $150M upfront and 65% goes to Sanofi and 35% to MNKD? There is a potential to receive another $775M. MNKD invested 10 years and 2 Billion to only receive $150M and keep 35% share of sales? Is anyone else slightly disappointed? Read the deal again. It looks like this is a 2 deal agreement: Under a separate supply agreement, MannKind will manufacture Afrezza at its manufacturing facility in Danbury, Connecticut. In addition, the companies are planning to collaborate to expand manufacturing capacity to meet global demand as necessary. One for supply and one for profit sharing. Very different... This is good. Potentially very very good. JPG
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 0:44:14 GMT -5
Do it! Wake the Spiro! He must know if he is allowed to stay in the states or go go Siberia
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Post by jpg on Aug 11, 2014 0:44:39 GMT -5
I don't trust the dam Frenchmen! The ones who helped the US gain independence from Britain?
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 0:51:01 GMT -5
I think the deal could have been better for us......
So, so, what do we open at?
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 11, 2014 0:52:59 GMT -5
OUTSTANDING! Proven GLOBAL leader in Diabetes as Partner! Plus, MNKD gets 35% of profits worldwide AND gets to manufacture the product AND keep Technosphere and that promising pipeline! Although MNKD shares costs, it gets money advanced and Sanofi uses its existing infrastructure to put in place the sales, distribution and marketing. Hard to do estimates so it will take awhile for the market to absorb the impact, but it is hard for me to imagine a better all around deal for long term returns to shareholders.Can't wait for the pre-market. A year from now things will look very pretty. This is a blockbuster drug and a blockbuster deal in my opinion. GLTAL! Chris-C
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 11, 2014 0:53:58 GMT -5
Wow...sure surprised me! Given their Lantus customers, Sanofi already has entry into the medical community. And this gives them a nice companion product to pair with their long-acting insulin. Here's an excerpt from a recent SA article...which concluded that SNY would be the best choice. Scroll down to the blue font: seekingalpha.com/article/2313645-mannkind-are-these-top-big-pharma-companies-potential-partnersPsycho Analyst Long only, value, growth at reasonable price, healthcare MannKind: Are These Top Big Pharma Companies Potential Partners? Jul. 14, 2014 10:15 AM ET | 109 comments | About: MannKind Corporation (MNKD), Includes: JNJ, NVS, PFE, RHHBY, SNY Disclosure: The author is long MNKD. (More...) Summary MannKind requires a partner to market and distribute Afrezza. The ideal partner would be a large, global company with a strong presence in the diabetes care niche but with no product whose sales would be threatened by a successful Afrezza. This article reviews the top five global Big Pharma companies to see if they might be suitable partners for Afrezza. Now that the FDA has approved MannKind's (NASDAQ:MNKD) inhaled insulin, Afrezza, investors are anxiously awaiting news as to what company, if any, will partner with MNKD to market and distribute this new, potentially blockbusting drug. Though there has been no shortage of bears proclaiming that a partnership will never happen, most notably The Street's MNKD permabear, Adam Feuerstein, MannKind's executives have made several statements over the past month hinting that a partnership would be announced during the first few months following Afrezza's approval. Since the drug was approved on June 27, 2014, the clock is now ticking. So who are these potential partners? There aren't a whole lot of them, because to market Afrezza effectively, a company will have to be large, ideally global in reach, with the financial resources to market the drug to the thousands of PCPs who treat most of the people with Type 2 diabetes. This is because it is those patients with Type 2 diabetes who make up the largest potential market for Afrezza. A suitable partner would be already fielding a sales force knowledgeable about diabetes. Its staff would be capable of teaching busy family doctors how to use this novel, fast-acting insulin properly. It is essential that the partner's sales force have this ability, as Afrezza's dosing is far more complicated than that of the pills and once-a-day injectibles it will be competing with. As Matt Pfeffer, MNKD's CFO, stated in his presentation at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, "It's going to be a challenging launch... it's going to be a fair amount of education that's going to be required." To surmount that challenge, MNKD's partner will have to have a sales force that has enough experience with fast-acting insulin to be able to provide that kind of education. But the partner MNKD requires would also have to be a company ready to put its heart and soul into marketing Afrezza, and this is where the real challenge lies. Because most of the big players in the metabolic disease arena all already have invested heavily in other drugs that are direct competitors to Afrezza. As Hakan Edstrom, MNKD's COO, explained at the same conference, when asked about whether the company was considering partnering with companies that already sell insulin, "If they are enrolled in insulin and insulin business they know the marketplace, they may have a franchise already so there may be a way to access that market very quickly. On the other hand they may also have... a product that's coming out of their own R&D and their own manufacturing. So there may be a margin difference that we would be concerned about in regards to where do they put their emphasis in terms of marketing the product." This is a lovely, elliptical way of saying, "MannKind does not want to sell this insulin to a company who will buy it and market it to fail, so that their other insulins can remain profitable." The problem of pre-existing, competing products extends beyond the companies that are marketing insulin products. Several of the potential partners with strong sales forces also have made large investments in new oral or non-insulin injected diabetes drugs that could see their market eroded, were Afrezza to become successful. So with this in mind, we will begin our review of the companies with expertise in marketing products like Afrezza that might become MNKD's partner in marketing Afrezza. We'll begin by examining the top five largest Big Pharma companies worldwide to see if any of them might be a good match for Afrezza. <snip>
Sanofi (SNY)
Sanofi, the fifth-largest global Big Pharma company with a 2013 revenue of $52.31 billion, has a very strong presence in the diabetes care space. Its most successful diabetes product is Lantus, the long-acting insulin, which is now the best-selling diabetes drug in the world after having beat out the previous leader, Merck's Januvia. But its dominance in the niche is threatened by the looming 2015 expiration of its patent on Lantus and by the likely future approval of Novo Nordisk's ultra-long lasting insulin, Tresiba.
Sanofi also markets a fast-acting injected insulin, Apidra, which has a slightly faster activity than Novo Nordisk's Novolog and Lilly's Humalog. But its sales lag behind those of the other brands, possibly because many insurers do not cover it, for cost reasons. Currently, it appears to be a niche product used mostly in insulin pumps.
The company also has an injected GLP-1 analog, Lyxumia, similar to Byetta and Victoza, which is approved for use in Europe but is years away from approval in the US due to concerns about possible cardiovascular side effects. Conclusion
Of the five companies reviewed so far, Sanofi would appear to be by far the best candidate to partner with MNKD in selling Afrezza. It has a strong presence in the diabetes marketplace. Its sales force is familiar with the use of fast-acting insulins and possibly with insulin pumping, which makes it likely they would be able to understand the unique benefits that the ultra-fast Afrezza offers insulin users.
Afrezza does not compete with Sanofi's most profitable drug, Lantus, as Afrezza is a fast-acting insulin, not a basal insulin. And while Afrezza might be considered a competitor to Apidra, Apidra's having found a niche as a pump-user's insulin, rather than one used by patients with Type 2 diabetes, make Afrezza less of a direct threat to cannibalize current profits.
The delay in the approval of Lyxumia and the fact that it would, if approved, enter a crowded market where there are already strongly selling pre-existing drugs, also means that if Sanofi were to have success selling Afrezza, that success would not pose a threat to an established money maker.
So Sanofi has the marketing muscle, the sales force knowledge base, and the motivation to launch Afrezza into the marketplace. Of course, this is only an outsider's take. Whether the company is interested in Afrezza is currently unknown.
Though Sanofi is the largest global company that could be a strong partner in the marketing of Afrezza, it is not the only one. There are several smaller companies that would be potential partners, too. And we will examine them in a future article.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 0:54:19 GMT -5
Geezus, people, act like you been there before (even if you haven't!). Let's move on to what the market will do tomorrow, and then Tuesday and the deal is explained further in the CC! A nice surprise, let the negative articles begin - they have that much more time to think them up. Do you guys trust the French? LOL! Baba- give us youngsters some advice- what are you thinking right now. First, lots depends on how the morning cc goes. Also, how quickly can the AF's of the world get their slams out; will be interested to see AF's take, his last may article have been shifting into neutral, preparing to go into drive, or it could have been a head fake; we'll know tomorrow. But there will be others taking shots at this deal (not to mention Spiro). Overall, I see day traders pouring in on this one early, the stock going up a couple of bucks (I don't see it going past $11), then hitting resistance, and settling back down some as the day traders declare the party over for the day. That may come well before halfway through the session. I have several naked puts I sold, which I may look to buy back and close out, if the price of those puts comes down significantly. For you folk that think I'm being too pessimistic, my most recent prediction of no big new at or before this cc should give you comfort! Congrats to all, this is another big, big step. I'm hoping Sanofi is a heck of a marketer, and I'm looking forward to hearing some marketing ideas tomorrow. It won't take that much exposure before every diabetic is talking about this, and they are putting a little pressure on their docs to check it out.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 0:54:39 GMT -5
I don't trust the dam Frenchmen! The ones who helped the US gain independence from Britain? Yeah, they helped with independence, blah blah blah.
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Post by gamblerjag on Aug 11, 2014 0:55:16 GMT -5
I agree it could have been better.. but we have the #1 pharmaceutical company in the world... this doesn't include techno.. I'm 85% happy which is pretty good imo.. I'm guessing we open around 12.50
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Post by spiro on Aug 11, 2014 0:57:41 GMT -5
Spiro got the 1:30 wakeup call and is now bring to figure out how happy he should be. The upfront money seems a little low, but then again the 35% is quite nice. The total of $925 upfront is not exactly pocket change for MNKD.
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