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Post by 4Balance on Aug 11, 2014 2:21:03 GMT -5
So..what sort of price action are we thinking we might see on Monday...??
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Post by coco on Aug 11, 2014 3:45:35 GMT -5
Congrats to all who have had the patience to stick it out through thick and thin. Now let's start planning that approval party that everyone was talking about. Coco.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 11, 2014 3:56:28 GMT -5
The one day I went to bed early... Thank g-d I had to get up in the middle of the night... Congratulations to all... Also to Al Mann and of course Matt P. Steady and reliable the whole way... My two cents on the 175m upfront payment... Depends on what the milestones are which after having read the entire thread here no one seems to know. Perhaps we will get clarity on them during the call today. How "easy" and quickly they can be met will determine the true value of the upfront payments. As for the rest of the deal 35% seems fair given they will also keep manufacturing rights. So would want to know the margins on that. Pricing, of course, will not be like Solvadi so knowing margins will help a bit. Oh and last but not least... let's not forget they can now use the huge carry forward losses of some $400m (forgot the actual number) Now last, for real, but not least this deal does not include the Technsphere platform.... Seems to me we have a winner...
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 4:41:24 GMT -5
First impression:
The Good,
Great partner in Sanofi (the one I liked the most, and the one most likely to make Afrezza a success)
The Bad,
For that much ($150M) upfront 50/50 would have been fair
Conclusion,
The deal is ok for Mannkind but Sanofi is the real winner. The CC will dermine where MNKD stock goes from here. If Sanofi is covering the marketing cost I'll be satisfied with the partnership.
The Question,
Is that enough money upfront to allow Mannkind to build a Technosphere based pipeline?
MNKD price target $12 at launch (would have been $16 if 50/50)
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Post by ashiwi on Aug 11, 2014 5:30:45 GMT -5
Disappointed? You guys are a buzz kill. This is a great Deal. Al always comes thru. He once said Afrezza will be the largest selling medical device ever. If he is only half right, do know what MNKD WILL BE WORTH in a few years?
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 5:52:37 GMT -5
I wouldn't say disappointed...but the bidding war for the right to sell Afrezza didn't happen. And, the Shorts aren't going to be crushed (only slightly dismembered) and they could still drive MNKD back below $10.
I'm going to take that to mean we might have to dial back on our sales expectations. I still think we'll have a blockbuster in Afrezza, but probably won't see 5B in peak global sales (maybe 3B at most).
The Mannkind story now is about how quickly they can build a Technosphere pipeline...
Tentative Price Target $25 - $30 in 3 years (still plenty of upside, and $50 buyout by Sanofi is still possible but dependent on Mannkind pipeline)
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Post by kc on Aug 11, 2014 5:55:59 GMT -5
That will be part of the partnership later with Medtronic
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Post by purge on Aug 11, 2014 7:25:24 GMT -5
You all stay up late.
Congratulations to everyone.
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Post by irrationalexuberance on Aug 11, 2014 7:27:14 GMT -5
ashiwi,
I am right with you. This up front payment is such an insignificant consideration in the grand scheme of things, I don't understand the preoccupation with it. I think Al got us great terms.
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 8:07:34 GMT -5
Very nice call!
Sanofi presence on the call is very encouraging. Partnership is strong, no conflict in interests.
All costs shared 65/35, the loan facility for Mannkinds costs (from Sanofi) is helpful.
Only big boys (no assistants) from the banks, etc. on the call asking Qs. Expect serious coverage from now on, increased price targets coming.
Looking for details on Technosphere opportunitys on the other call later today.
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 11, 2014 8:29:32 GMT -5
Very nice call! Sanofi presence on the call is very encouraging. Partnership is strong, no conflict in interests. All costs shared 65/35, the loan facility for Mannkinds costs (from Sanofi) is helpful. Only big boys (no assistants) from the banks, etc. on the call asking Qs. Expect serious coverage from now on, increased price targets coming. Looking for details on Technosphere opportunitys on the other call later today. Don't be so sure about increased coverage or upgrades yet. Due to both companies not commenting on sales etc, I think many analysts will stay on the sidelines or possibly be meager with upgrades until they can get a better handle on the sales/cost numbers.
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 11, 2014 8:36:21 GMT -5
Very nice call! Sanofi presence on the call is very encouraging. Partnership is strong, no conflict in interests. All costs shared 65/35, the loan facility for Mannkinds costs (from Sanofi) is helpful. Only big boys (no assistants) from the banks, etc. on the call asking Qs. Expect serious coverage from now on, increased price targets coming. Looking for details on Technosphere opportunitys on the other call later today. Don't be so sure about increased coverage or upgrades yet. Due to both companies not commenting on sales etc, I think many analysts will stay on the sidelines or possibly be meager with upgrades until they can get a better handle on the sales/cost numbers. I agree...upgrades will be few and targets will be low until Sales figures are firmer.
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 8:40:53 GMT -5
From Sanofi, I'm hearing Afrezza is going to be part of a one-two punch when they release their follow-up product to Lantus.
Sanofi will correctly be pushing the decreased hypos of both products, plus longer lasting basal insulin resulting in less injections.
In my opinion, Sanofi has a very strong marketing message and they are all-in with Afrezza.
Makes me want to own Sanofi stock in addition to MNKD.
All my worries are all in the rear view mirror. We have a winner!
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 8:43:20 GMT -5
I'm not saying we won't have volatility (I'll still trade that) but I'm maintaining my Long position.
The Shorts were wrong.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Aug 11, 2014 8:51:10 GMT -5
I'm considering it a generous price based on a successful launch (through Sanofi's distribuion) of Afrezza; Mannkind's FIRST drug to demonstrate Technosphere.
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