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Post by hans on Nov 29, 2017 16:45:59 GMT -5
Scripts are going to drop next week due to Thanksgiving holiday. I'm also guessing some of the most recent week's improvement is from people making sure to get their script before the large eating holiday. Then we'll most likely get well over 500 TRx and $600k/week for 2-3 weeks before the xmas->new year slowdown Which puts script flat until the vote (I'm assuming approval), and I think the PPS will mirror that or drop slightly. $2.80 - $3.25 continues for the first half of december. Market forces that drive the stock down seem to give up after we're down below $3.00 for any amount of time, and come hard when we go higher than $3.25 That gives us 1 week of trading after the vote until the holidays set in, and that's a bad timeframe for putting out good news. I'm predicting things stay flat ($3.00 - $3.25) for the rest of the year and a couple weeks into Jan. Then we should get a good PPS rise leading into the Q4 meeting if scripts keep going up. I really *want* to predict that the label change is finally showing results from Doctors giving Afrezza a first/second chance, given the last 5 weeks of NRx. But while the NRx uptrend from the past month+ is there, it'll be another 2-3 weeks before we see if the refills trend (which follows NRx by 4-5 weeks) rises in a similar fashion. I don't think we will see a drop in scripts this week. I understand your reason due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, however, I believe the DTC commercials will over compensate for any holiday loss and believe we will be even to last week or slightly higher.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 29, 2017 16:55:14 GMT -5
With all the regular heavy hitters who’ve already responded to this thread, (including the guy asking the question) I can’t believe no one has even mentioned the number 1 factor influencing the share price, and will continue to do so until resolved..... DEERFIELD ..... $3.25...... Jan 15th Dr. D probably knows more about this company, and any potential happenings, than it’s CEO. The questions I’d like to ask....... Why bump the $10 mil payment due only 2 1/2 months to Jan 15th? While making MNKD hold the $10 mil in cash. Is it because they know of possible partnerships or deals that will result because of the new shares after Dec 13th? It can’t really be just because MNKD wants to pay in shares instead of cash because they have the 4 mil shares now without needing the vote. What ever it is, it’s pretty clear to me that Dr. D gave themselves 1 month to convert after the vote. So my guess is that we’re not going up anytime before that situation is resolved..... I will say that $2.30 is my target low..... I’d love to see a quick drop there soon, vote goes thru, Dr D converts, and we’re off!!!!! Maybe a partnership in Q1, FDA filing, RLS update, continued rise in scripts, study results, all to keep it going. If it's at $2.30, Deerfield would need to be dumb as a box of rocks to convert at $3.25. Though I suspect if we're trading below $3.25 in Jan that MNKD would offer them a new deal on conversion at a discount to wherever the market price is. Deerfield has bumped payments like this before, so I don't see anything particularly interesting that they've done it again. It's nice that they are playing ball with MNKD, though when they get to convert at a discount or an averaged price as they would now, it gives them a possibility of having a nice profit that they can lock in by shorting the stock. Dilution for us, but far better than them demanding cash at every opportunity. In the big scheme of things I don't think this chunk of debt due Jan is large enough to be a sole factor that would hold the price around the minimum end of the conversion range. It might have had some psychological effect on trading given that we really haven't had other factors driving price.
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Post by xanet on Nov 29, 2017 16:57:22 GMT -5
With all the regular heavy hitters who’ve already responded to this thread, (including the guy asking the question) I can’t believe no one has even mentioned the number 1 factor influencing the share price, and will continue to do so until resolved..... DEERFIELD ..... $3.25...... Jan 15th Dr. D probably knows more about this company, and any potential happenings, than it’s CEO. The questions I’d like to ask....... Why bump the $10 mil payment due only 2 1/2 months to Jan 15th? While making MNKD hold the $10 mil in cash. Is it because they know of possible partnerships or deals that will result because of the new shares after Dec 13th? It can’t really be just because MNKD wants to pay in shares instead of cash because they have the 4 mil shares now without needing the vote. What ever it is, it’s pretty clear to me that Dr. D gave themselves 1 month to convert after the vote. So my guess is that we’re not going up anytime before that situation is resolved..... I will say that $2.30 is my target low..... I’d love to see a quick drop there soon, vote goes thru, Dr D converts, and we’re off!!!!! Maybe a partnership in Q1, FDA filing, RLS update, continued rise in scripts, study results, all to keep it going. Deerfield will not convert if share price is below $3.25. They will take the cash. If price goes above $3.25 on volume and appears to be headed higher, they may convert. Edit: I see DBC beat me to it!
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Post by compound26 on Nov 29, 2017 18:22:44 GMT -5
Agree with the posts above that the Deerfield option of converting $10 million debt at around $3.25 is not a major (or not as major as some at this board believe) factor in where the PPS is right now.
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 30, 2017 10:14:19 GMT -5
Agree with the posts above that the Deerfield option of converting $10 million debt at around $3.25 is not a major (or not as major as some at this board believe) factor in where the PPS is right now. Someone's comments about this being a battlefield stock makes me think that there are people working the market to keep PPS below $3.25 through Jan 15th. That way Deerfield would have to take the $10 mil rather than the stock (or renegotiate). Which would be rough on Mannkind's bottom line and a negative event. Not that that's the only reason for the drop, but it could be part of why we are stuck in this range.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 30, 2017 12:36:17 GMT -5
Agree with the posts above that the Deerfield option of converting $10 million debt at around $3.25 is not a major (or not as major as some at this board believe) factor in where the PPS is right now. Someone's comments about this being a battlefield stock makes me think that there are people working the market to keep PPS below $3.25 through Jan 15th. That way Deerfield would have to take the $10 mil rather than the stock (or renegotiate). Which would be rough on Mannkind's bottom line and a negative event. Not that that's the only reason for the drop, but it could be part of why we are stuck in this range. I suppose that could be plausible goal for shorts to aim for, as it would seem negative even if another delay or conversion at lower price were negotiated as I'd suspect would be done.
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Post by traderdennis on Nov 30, 2017 20:45:26 GMT -5
I hope you are right, but I don't expect share price to move that fast, especially with more shares in play (referring to the recent capital raise), and the probability of future dilution. It's anyone's guess, but I would think somewhere between $2.50 and $4 if we pass the authorization, and $2 - $2.50 if we don't. You don't expect share price to move that fast? Are we watching the same company? The share price went from $1.85 on 9/27 to to $6.70 on 10/10 then back under $3.50 by the end of October. b I can’t prove it but the rise was a Deerfield pump and dump
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 1, 2017 0:43:27 GMT -5
After the vote passes, they will take the shares. It's easy money for them 3 to 6 months down the road.
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Post by cjc04 on Dec 1, 2017 10:46:00 GMT -5
After the vote passes, they will take the shares. It's easy money for them 3 to 6 months down the road. Amazing that it’s not obvious to everyone! Especially the reptiles posting on here all day everyday. D knew this was the plan all along, which is why they bumped only to Jan 15th, and which is why they made MNKD put $10 mil aside just in case the shares didn’t get approved. D also knows any and all news to come over the 6 months after the shares are approved, which is why they know the shares are easy money..... like you said.
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 1, 2017 10:54:26 GMT -5
After the vote passes, they will take the shares. It's easy money for them 3 to 6 months down the road. Amazing that it’s not obvious to everyone! Especially the reptiles posting on here all day everyday. D knew this was the plan all along, which is why they bumped only to Jan 15th, and which is why they made MNKD put $10 mil aside just in case the shares didn’t get approved. D also knows any and all news to come over the 6 months after the shares are approved, which is why they know the shares are easy money..... like you said. Deerfield? Short Mannkind, take the stock which will automatically drive the price down (dilution), close the short position and cash out. Rinse , repeat. The shares are easy money.
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Post by matt on Dec 1, 2017 11:19:34 GMT -5
Deerfield? Short Mannkind, take the stock which will automatically drive the price down (dilution), close the short position and cash out. Rinse , repeat. The shares are easy money. ^^^ This. So long as Deerfield shorts immediately after entering into a revised contract with MNKD, and at a price above the conversion price, they win. For example, if they shorted when the stock was at $3.35 with an agreed conversion option at $3.25, they can't lose. If the stock goes to $4.00 in January, DF can convert the debt payment to shares and deliver the shares to close out the short, still making ten cents profit ($3.35-$3.25) minus some carrying costs. If the stock is trading at $2.75 in January, they can buy some shares for cash and deliver those shares to close the short, enjoying about sixty cents profit ($3.35-$2.75 less carrying costs). So long as their carrying costs on the short position are not more than the difference between the agreed conversion price and the short contract, it is a no lose situation for Deerfield making it a perfect hedge of their debt exposure.
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 1, 2017 12:08:14 GMT -5
This is not the same company as a year ago. After the vote is approved we will be on the road to prosperity, leaving what’s left of the short thesis behind. At 3.25 conversion the play is not to short for pennies but to hold for dollars. January can’t get here soon enough 😊
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Post by rockstarrick on Dec 1, 2017 12:34:24 GMT -5
Amazing that it’s not obvious to everyone! Especially the reptiles posting on here all day everyday. D knew this was the plan all along, which is why they bumped only to Jan 15th, and which is why they made MNKD put $10 mil aside just in case the shares didn’t get approved. D also knows any and all news to come over the 6 months after the shares are approved, which is why they know the shares are easy money..... like you said. Deerfield? Short Mannkind, take the stock which will automatically drive the price down (dilution), close the short position and cash out. Rinse , repeat. The shares are easy money. And this will continue until mnkd proves there will be more $$$ to be made on the long side than the short. It really doesn’t matter to retail shareholders because as long as game is being played, we are still in the game. Now with an actual advertising campaign, sales force, and a few trials, we should live to see the day when Afrezza sales are enough to flip BIG money from the short to the long side of mnkd, and we can enjoy the ride up to profitability. Good Luck Everybody 😎
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 1, 2017 14:15:09 GMT -5
This is not the same company as a year ago. After the vote is approved we will be on the road to prosperity, leaving what’s left of the short thesis behind. At 3.25 conversion the play is not to short for pennies but to hold for dollars. January can’t get here soon enough 😊 I dunno, buyitonsale, to use a line from a Jimmy Webb/Glen Campbell song, "and she won't believe I'm really leaving, cuz I've left that girl so many times before..."
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Post by tingtongtung on Dec 1, 2017 14:46:56 GMT -5
Deerfield? Short Mannkind, take the stock which will automatically drive the price down (dilution), close the short position and cash out. Rinse , repeat. The shares are easy money. ^^^ This. So long as Deerfield shorts immediately after entering into a revised contract with MNKD, and at a price above the conversion price, they win. For example, if they shorted when the stock was at $3.35 with an agreed conversion option at $3.25, they can't lose. If the stock goes to $4.00 in January, DF can convert the debt payment to shares and deliver the shares to close out the short, still making ten cents profit ($3.35-$3.25) minus some carrying costs. If the stock is trading at $2.75 in January, they can buy some shares for cash and deliver those shares to close the short, enjoying about sixty cents profit ($3.35-$2.75 less carrying costs). So long as their carrying costs on the short position are not more than the difference between the agreed conversion price and the short contract, it is a no lose situation for Deerfield making it a perfect hedge of their debt exposure. Is that the way Deerfield operates? If so, MNKD has no choice until Deerfield debt is paid in full, or MNKD gets a good traction, and stock price goes up and Deerfield stops doing this. It's a bad situation for MNKD.. May be thats why they want to raise lots of cash with different criteria with the newly authorized shares? I dont know how much they owe to Deerfield.
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