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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 4, 2017 19:45:02 GMT -5
Investors that put money into MNKD without taking shares in return... interesting concept. In case there is any confusion, I was quoting from Mannkind's press release. Mannkind can dream, can't it? Just like the rest of us.
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Post by pantaloons on Dec 4, 2017 20:21:53 GMT -5
babaoriley ... call me old fashioned, but I use the term "investor" to mean someone that owns shares of a company. Just odd wording in my opinion. I don't read much into it. Assuming trials can show clinical superiority to RAAs, which most of us firmly believe, SNY certainly could have had a big success. Should have been a warning sign that they didn't immediately initiate such trials. In one way, Mike C and co. are doing investors a favor by requesting the 140M authorized shares. 2018 is the year that will make or break MNKD. With superiority results on tap, an expanding advertising campaign, and (hopefully) improved insurance coverage in the coming months, this will be MNKD's best chance at realizing its potential. The company will need all the help it can get, notably from the 140M authorized shares. If these major milestones don't materialize (especially the superiority results, IMO), MNKD will have essentially be done (at least for a while). It would be a shame if funding was the factor that hindered or impeded MNKD's vision to disrupt diabetes treatment. Yes, 140M shares is a lot, but management and the BOD must surely realize, with all that is about to materialize in the next year, it's better to be safe than sorry. In other words, 2018 is MNKD's make-or-break year. The can's been kicked down the road long enough, and we'll see soon enough exactly what cards they're really holding.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2017 23:56:26 GMT -5
babaoriley ... call me old fashioned, but I use the term "investor" to mean someone that owns shares of a company. Just odd wording in my opinion. I don't read much into it. Assuming trials can show clinical superiority to RAAs, which most of us firmly believe, SNY certainly could have had a big success. Should have been a warning sign that they didn't immediately initiate such trials. In one way, Mike C and co. are doing investors a favor by requesting the 140M authorized shares. 2018 is the year that will make or break MNKD. With superiority results on tap, an expanding advertising campaign, and (hopefully) improved insurance coverage in the coming months, this will be MNKD's best chance at realizing its potential. The company will need all the help it can get, notably from the 140M authorized shares. If these major milestones don't materialize (especially the superiority results, IMO), MNKD will have essentially be done (at least for a while). It would be a shame if funding was the factor that hindered or impeded MNKD's vision to disrupt diabetes treatment. Yes, 140M shares is a lot, but management and the BOD must surely realize, with all that is about to materialize in the next year, it's better to be safe than sorry. In other words, 2018 is MNKD's make-or-break year. The can's been kicked down the road long enough, and we'll see soon enough exactly what cards they're really holding. If this huge potential dilution overhang impacts the share price, and I think it already has, it may be counterproductive rather than helpful... actually reducing the ability of the company raising the money you correctly recognize they need. The onus will be on management to show some results to reassure the street that we aren't in for a visit from the ghost of dilutions past. Some dilution may be necessary... in fact I think it is inevitable. 50% dilution I certainly would consider any form of gift since it is basically taking assets away from existing shareholders.
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Post by pantaloons on Dec 5, 2017 7:26:33 GMT -5
In one way, Mike C and co. are doing investors a favor by requesting the 140M authorized shares. 2018 is the year that will make or break MNKD. With superiority results on tap, an expanding advertising campaign, and (hopefully) improved insurance coverage in the coming months, this will be MNKD's best chance at realizing its potential. The company will need all the help it can get, notably from the 140M authorized shares. If these major milestones don't materialize (especially the superiority results, IMO), MNKD will have essentially be done (at least for a while). It would be a shame if funding was the factor that hindered or impeded MNKD's vision to disrupt diabetes treatment. Yes, 140M shares is a lot, but management and the BOD must surely realize, with all that is about to materialize in the next year, it's better to be safe than sorry. In other words, 2018 is MNKD's make-or-break year. The can's been kicked down the road long enough, and we'll see soon enough exactly what cards they're really holding. If this huge potential dilution overhang impacts the share price, and I think it already has, it may be counterproductive rather than helpful... actually reducing the ability of the company raising the money you correctly recognize they need. The onus will be on management to show some results to reassure the street that we aren't in for a visit from the ghost of dilutions past. Some dilution may be necessary... in fact I think it is inevitable. 50% dilution I certainly would consider any form of gift since it is basically taking assets away from existing shareholders. I agree - utilizing these shares will effectively will require a very, very delicate balancing act. Based on historical data of MNKD and other companies, when is the share price impacted most when new shares are authorized? Once they are successfully voted for or once they're actually issued? I suppose it's highly dependent on the each unique situation. However, I think it's safe to say that when a company is asking to authorize 140M shares, they don't expected to issue just 1, 2, or 5M; instead, they're probably expecting to issue in the range of at least 20-70M within the "near-term".
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Post by falconquest on Dec 5, 2017 7:32:19 GMT -5
What I'm concerned about is Mannkind "living" off of authorized shares instead of finding a way to profitability. The authorized shares will keep them going for a while but they need to become self sustaining.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2017 8:03:08 GMT -5
What I'm concerned about is Mannkind "living" off of authorized shares instead of finding a way to profitability. The authorized shares will keep them going for a while but they need to become self sustaining. Thanks for stating the obvious
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Post by ilovekauai on Dec 5, 2017 8:37:15 GMT -5
I’m down here in the wilds of Costa Rica on the Caribbean side thru the end of the year. SP won’t do much now IMO until Jan. Happy Holidays to all and looking forward to 2018.
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Post by matt on Dec 5, 2017 8:49:14 GMT -5
Based on historical data of MNKD and other companies, when is the share price impacted most when new shares are authorized? Once they are successfully voted for or once they're actually issued? I suppose it's highly dependent on the each unique situation. You are correct that it depends on the situation, but normally there is less impact when the shares are simply authorized unless the financial situation is already desperate. Many companies, including some very big ones, routinely have 50% or more of their outstanding shares in authorized but unissued shares, and in such cases it hardly raises an eyebrow especially since the shares tend to be used as acquisition currency and not necessarily to raise funds. In MNKD's case they will need to raise funds in 2018, most likely (although not certainly) via a secondary offering. The impact on share price is dependent on the terms of the secondary offering. As you can imagine, a secondary offering at a 10% discount to the market price would have a modest impact while a 30% discount plus warrant coverage would have a major impact. Since secondary offerings are not priced until the day or two before the money is raised, and market sentiment on this stock wanders all over the place, trying to guess the future share price is best left to Miss Cleo. About the best a shareholder can do is to follow the cash balance to predict when a raise might be necessary, and estimate what that might cost based on recent company performance, before deciding whether to remain a holder. Some people do well by exiting to cash just before financings and then reloading later, but your timing has to be exceptionally good to play that game.
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Post by zuegirdor on Dec 5, 2017 11:38:30 GMT -5
babaoriley ... call me old fashioned, but I use the term "investor" to mean someone that owns shares of a company. Just odd wording in my opinion. I don't read much into it. Assuming trials can show clinical superiority to RAAs, which most of us firmly believe, SNY certainly could have had a big success. Should have been a warning sign that they didn't immediately initiate such trials. In one way, Mike C and co. are doing investors a favor by requesting the 140M authorized shares. 2018 is the year that will make or break MNKD. With superiority results on tap, an expanding advertising campaign, and (hopefully) improved insurance coverage in the coming months, this will be MNKD's best chance at realizing its potential. The company will need all the help it can get, notably from the 140M authorized shares. If these major milestones don't materialize (especially the superiority results, IMO), MNKD will have essentially be done (at least for a while). It would be a shame if funding was the factor that hindered or impeded MNKD's vision to disrupt diabetes treatment. Yes, 140M shares is a lot, but management and the BOD must surely realize, with all that is about to materialize in the next year, it's better to be safe than sorry. In other words, 2018 is MNKD's make-or-break year. The can's been kicked down the road long enough, and we'll see soon enough exactly what cards they're really holding. Many other things will happen in 2018. Hard to know how the overall economic and political environment will play into Mannkind and Afrezza's fate. Afrezza is an outstanding product. I say go for broke. Release the Cracken with an ax and a GIANT can of whoopass on the competition. You should know what I am talking about. Flood the market with tons of cheap Afrezza right before the ax falls. As for price discovery, the market for insulin, and returns on our investment - let God sort it out. We are meddling in the affairs of Dragons after all.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 5, 2017 13:03:47 GMT -5
Investors that put money into MNKD without taking shares in return... interesting concept. In case there is any confusion, I was quoting from Mannkind's press release. Mannkind can dream, can't it? Just like the rest of us. I'm hoping that dreaming isn't a large part of Mike's planning process. I believe Mike is a savvy player, so I'm guessing it is more spinning than dreaming when he talks about non-dilutive. I'm adjusting my expectations to now include much more dilution. It'll be a slow and expensive process to get to profitability.
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Post by zuegirdor on Dec 5, 2017 15:28:56 GMT -5
In case there is any confusion, I was quoting from Mannkind's press release. Mannkind can dream, can't it? Just like the rest of us. I'm hoping that dreaming isn't a large part of Mike's planning process. I believe Mike is a savvy player, so I'm guessing it is more spinning than dreaming when he talks about non-dilutive. I'm adjusting my expectations to now include much more dilution. It'll be a slow and expensive process to get to profitability. If "expense" of investor's money is required for "profitability", then one way to "spend" money now, money that Mannkind already "has" in terms of production capacity & cheap insulin, money that is interest free, non-dilutive and does not have to be paid back, is to lower the price and flood the market with free samples. This approach requires less "cooperation" from HMOs, raises visibility and allows more diabetics to try it. Sure it will hurt revenue. I don't think most diabetics or even most HMOs care about Mannkind revenue or stockholders one iota. And diabetics and HMOs are who you have to convince. True, we needed the runway extended. Now we got a runway, we got the planes (meaning we can already make a ton of Afrezza). We need to get people to buy tickets. But in this business, Afrezza is like a radical new plane design that people are not sure about since they have never flown one before. They don't want to buy the plane until they have tested it. Multiple times. In the Rain. Take-off. Landing. Turbulence.... Changing their prandial insulin prescription is a HUGE risk for diabetics to take. Don't make it any harder for people to take a risk changing a regimen on which their very survival depends. That probably goes for Drs and HMOs, their risk exposure too-financial and otherwise.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 5, 2017 16:01:38 GMT -5
zuegirdor... to some extent they are doing what you suggest. It seems that people such as Joey are getting free Afrezza for some period of time. But apparently there are limitations to how many vouchers MNKD will give to someone, since we've also seen members post that they can't get access to Afrezza. I think they've moved away from "free samples" to the voucher program, probably for numerous reasons... which might include things like doctors not wanting to take up valued refrigerator space, wanting free scripts to count as scripts in Symphony numbers and wanting to get patients into MNKD database. I agree that it's better to give Afrezza away vs having it expire. But free probably isn't going to convince reluctant doctors to prescribe and free doesn't mean a patient can start using Afrezza without a prescription.
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Post by boca1girl on Dec 5, 2017 22:58:49 GMT -5
zuegirdor ... to some extent they are doing what you suggest. It seems that people such as Joey are getting free Afrezza for some period of time. But apparently there are limitations to how many vouchers MNKD will give to someone, since we've also seen members post that they can't get access to Afrezza. I think they've moved away from "free samples" to the voucher program, probably for numerous reasons... which might include things like doctors not wanting to take up valued refrigerator space, wanting free scripts to count as scripts in Symphony numbers and wanting to get patients into MNKD database. I agree that it's better to give Afrezza away vs having it expire. But free probably isn't going to convince reluctant doctors to prescribe and free doesn't mean a patient can start using Afrezza without a prescription. I hope we hear soon about the Afrezza donations to Houston and PR after the hurricanes are going. It would be nice to hear feedback from doctors and the patients. How do they like the free stuff...
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Post by pantaloons on Dec 6, 2017 20:28:41 GMT -5
Can anyone provide examples of battleground biotech stocks that experienced dramatic increases in share price in very short periods of time? I'm wondering what types of characteristics are similar in such cases and how those could be consistent with MNKD's case. I'm wondering if positive news of the superiority clinical trials for Afrezza would trigger such an event. I would not be surprised if MNKD issued shares at/around the time this news is announced, as was done following the recent FDA label change. In fact, it would only make sense for them to issue shares after such an event, unless they're running out of funds. Hopefully, they will not need to resort to a stock offering prior to a significant run-up in share price, unless it was for a partnership buy-in.
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Post by patten1962 on Dec 21, 2017 21:09:33 GMT -5
I believe stock price is down this month due to longs taking a tax loss. They will buy back in January.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
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