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Post by babaoriley on Dec 1, 2017 14:52:29 GMT -5
Deerfield and their ilk, IMO, are sophisticated three-ball lenders.
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Post by straightly on Dec 1, 2017 15:37:12 GMT -5
Deerfield and their ilk, IMO, are sophisticated three-ball lenders. You lost there. So should I read this to mean that "three-ball" means something more sophisticated than 2-ball? But I thought "having balls" were supposed to be positive. |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 1, 2017 17:18:09 GMT -5
This is not the same company as a year ago. After the vote is approved we will be on the road to prosperity, leaving what’s left of the short thesis behind. At 3.25 conversion the play is not to short for pennies but to hold for dollars. January can’t get here soon enough 😊 Because the hold time is so short the annual rate of return is very satisfying. Assume the price is $3.25 and drops $0.25 on the news over a week which historically is not unreasonable. That is the equivalent of an annual rate of return of (25/325)*52 -> 400% at virtually no risk. Deerfield will take that 25c as often as you offer it and redeploy the capital that is freed elsewhere. That's their business - making loans and not long term investments. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 1, 2017 17:38:01 GMT -5
This is not the same company as a year ago. After the vote is approved we will be on the road to prosperity, leaving what’s left of the short thesis behind. At 3.25 conversion the play is not to short for pennies but to hold for dollars. January can’t get here soon enough 😊 I guess you'll be surprised that the shorts will still have a thesis... that there is going to be significant dilution coming with 140M new shares hitting the market. A short thesis doesn't ultimately have to come to fruition for it to yield a successful short trade. Authorization of shares doesn't magically make money available. No company would ever go bankrupt if all they had to do was authorize countless extra shares and rake in unlimited money at whatever share price they are trading at before the authorization. MNKD needs some new authorization of shares (the number that would be necessary being highly disputed), but that is simply a necessity and very small step. There is no guarantee that the share price will be $3.25 or higher. That conversion price doesn't have some magical power to control the share price, and Deerfield, as any savvy actor, is not going to convert at a price higher than the shares are currently trading. I predict that Deerfield will convert, but I think there is as much chance it is a renegotiated deal at a value less than $3.25 with a discount to the trading price. Also suspect, based on Deerfield MO, they would hedge and lock in profit from discount having no interest in either a net long or short position in MNKD. Not risking whether price goes to pennies or dollars. |
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 1, 2017 18:00:09 GMT -5
Deerfield and their ilk, IMO, are sophisticated three-ball lenders. You lost there. So should I read this to mean that "three-ball" means something more sophisticated than 2-ball? But I thought "having balls" were supposed to be positive. It's been a while, but I think "three-ball" may be a reference to golf cheaters, who make a big display off the fact that they are good enough golfers that they only need to bring along one spare golf ball. Secretly, they've got another one hidden so if they cannot locate a ball in the woods or rough, they discretely drop the third ball and shout "I found it!" It's a little trick to get a better golf score and I imagine that lenders have many tricks of their own. When it comes to the lending game, they're in it to win it.  |
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 2, 2017 18:49:21 GMT -5
You lost there. So should I read this to mean that "three-ball" means something more sophisticated than 2-ball? But I thought "having balls" were supposed to be positive. It's been a while, but I think "three-ball" may be a reference to golf cheaters, who make a big display off the fact that they are good enough golfers that they only need to bring along one spare golf ball. Secretly, they've got another one hidden so if they cannot locate a ball in the woods or rough, they discretely drop the third ball and shout "I found it!" I don't think the reference had anything to do with pool's 3-ball game, or golf. "Deerfield and their ilk, IMO, are sophisticated three-ball lenders." I think he was just saying that Deerfield is a sophisticated lender, out to get the best deal for itself. Like any pawnbroker. The pawnbrokers' traditional symbol is three spheres suspended from a bar. I suppose someone might have heard the phrase and think a 3-ball lender has something to do with pool or golf. But the expression is historically associated with pawnbrokers. ("The pawnbrokers' symbol is three spheres suspended from a bar. The three sphere symbol is attributed to the Medici family of Florence, Italy, owing to its symbolic meaning of Lombard.[citation needed] This refers to the Italian region of Lombardy, where pawn shop banking originated under the name of Lombard banking. The three golden spheres were originally a symbol medieval Lombard merchants hung in front of their houses, and not the arms of the Medici family.") en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pawnbroker |
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Post by straightly on Dec 2, 2017 19:11:01 GMT -5
You lost there. So should I read this to mean that "three-ball" means something more sophisticated than 2-ball? But I thought "having balls" were supposed to be positive. It's been a while, but I think "three-ball" may be a reference to golf cheaters, who make a big display off the fact that they are good enough golfers that they only need to bring along one spare golf ball. Secretly, they've got another one hidden so if they cannot locate a ball in the woods or rough, they discretely drop the third ball and shout "I found it!" It's a little trick to get a better golf score and I imagine that lenders have many tricks of their own. When it comes to the lending game, they're in it to win it. Thanks. One learns something every day. Unfortunately, some lessons are hard and expensive to learn. Whenever I saw a complicated deal with many twists, there was always a hidden extra ball. Many a case, it is much cheaper to bit the bullet. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 3, 2017 2:20:24 GMT -5
You lost there. So should I read this to mean that "three-ball" means something more sophisticated than 2-ball? But I thought "having balls" were supposed to be positive. It's been a while, but I think "three-ball" may be a reference to golf cheaters, who make a big display off the fact that they are good enough golfers that they only need to bring along one spare golf ball. Secretly, they've got another one hidden so if they cannot locate a ball in the woods or rough, they discretely drop the third ball and shout "I found it!" It's a little trick to get a better golf score and I imagine that lenders have many tricks of their own. When it comes to the lending game, they're in it to win it. I ALWAYS carry an extra ball - Why? Because I'm a hack. Here's how I score my golf game: If I lose 2 balls and find 5, I'm 3 under  |
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 3, 2017 7:35:46 GMT -5
mnkdfann, you are a plethora of information. Thank you!
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 4, 2017 11:30:21 GMT -5
It's been a while, but I think "three-ball" may be a reference to golf cheaters, who make a big display off the fact that they are good enough golfers that they only need to bring along one spare golf ball. Secretly, they've got another one hidden so if they cannot locate a ball in the woods or rough, they discretely drop the third ball and shout "I found it!" I don't think the reference had anything to do with pool's 3-ball game, or golf. "Deerfield and their ilk, IMO, are sophisticated three-ball lenders." I think he was just saying that Deerfield is a sophisticated lender, out to get the best deal for itself. Like any pawnbroker. The pawnbrokers' traditional symbol is three spheres suspended from a bar. I suppose someone might have heard the phrase and think a 3-ball lender has something to do with pool or golf. But the expression is historically associated with pawnbrokers. ("The pawnbrokers' symbol is three spheres suspended from a bar. The three sphere symbol is attributed to the Medici family of Florence, Italy, owing to its symbolic meaning of Lombard.[citation needed] This refers to the Italian region of Lombardy, where pawn shop banking originated under the name of Lombard banking. The three golden spheres were originally a symbol medieval Lombard merchants hung in front of their houses, and not the arms of the Medici family.") en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PawnbrokerExactly, 'fan, in usage these days, rather than implying "sophistication" the implication is pejorative, ie, "sharp" lending practices. The sophistication is meant to apply to the fact that these are hard money lenders, but they are no pawnbrokers, but sophisticated in their arena of the securities business. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 4, 2017 14:56:02 GMT -5
In one of his recent articles, Spencer wrote: "If the company is working on some form of deal to raise capital, the best time to announce it is in conjunction with the vote results (or at least within 48 hours). In my opinion, it is best for MannKind if it can work a deal that will avoid needing to renegotiate with Deerfield again. If such a deal is not on the table, there could be some choppy waters ahead." Focusing on the first part of that statement, I think that makes sense. Maybe Locust Walk finally came through and found a potential strategic big investor? And Mannkind needs the new shares for that? files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-22AIJ9/5491906434x0x945470/C13930F3-0B10-4987-B51D-61EFD9922A41/MNKD_News_2017_6_5_General_Releases.pdf"Continuing MannKind's strong desire to help patients, Locust Walk will seek strategic partners and investors to non-dilutively advance the development of Technosphere-based therapies ..." Wait and see, I guess. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 4, 2017 16:06:54 GMT -5
In one of his recent articles, Spencer wrote: "If the company is working on some form of deal to raise capital, the best time to announce it is in conjunction with the vote results (or at least within 48 hours). In my opinion, it is best for MannKind if it can work a deal that will avoid needing to renegotiate with Deerfield again. If such a deal is not on the table, there could be some choppy waters ahead." Focusing on the first part of that statement, I think that makes sense. Maybe Locust Walk finally came through and found a potential strategic big investor? And Mannkind needs the new shares for that? files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-22AIJ9/5491906434x0x945470/C13930F3-0B10-4987-B51D-61EFD9922A41/MNKD_News_2017_6_5_General_Releases.pdf"Continuing MannKind's strong desire to help patients, Locust Walk will seek strategic partners and investors to non-dilutively advance the development of Technosphere-based therapies ..." Wait and see, I guess. T - minus 9 days and counting - |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2017 17:05:43 GMT -5
In one of his recent articles, Spencer wrote: "If the company is working on some form of deal to raise capital, the best time to announce it is in conjunction with the vote results (or at least within 48 hours). In my opinion, it is best for MannKind if it can work a deal that will avoid needing to renegotiate with Deerfield again. If such a deal is not on the table, there could be some choppy waters ahead." Focusing on the first part of that statement, I think that makes sense. Maybe Locust Walk finally came through and found a potential strategic big investor? And Mannkind needs the new shares for that? files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-22AIJ9/5491906434x0x945470/C13930F3-0B10-4987-B51D-61EFD9922A41/MNKD_News_2017_6_5_General_Releases.pdf"Continuing MannKind's strong desire to help patients, Locust Walk will seek strategic partners and investors to non-dilutively advance the development of Technosphere-based therapies ..." Wait and see, I guess. Investors that put money into MNKD without taking shares in return... interesting concept. |
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 4, 2017 18:03:00 GMT -5
Again, I say, "c'mon, DBC, you must know better." They (investors/partners) don't need shares, they can do a deal for a percentage of profits. Calling such a no-share deal "non-dilutive" is a way of dressing it up a little. Of course a partnership deal is dilutive (to earnings), just not to the share count. Like just about everything else in life, there's no free lunch. For example, the deal with SNY was hugely dilutive of earnings, but they were to provide a huge service in money and expertise to sell and distribute bunches of Afrezza. If we had sold a huge amount of shares for about $8/share right after we got approved, we could have had the money part, but the fear was that our expertise in marketing was lacking, and certainly we had no distribution network.
With all that was known at the time, MNKD made the right move. A few would have preferred Novartis, or Novo, or some other behemoth, but we signed with a behemoth whose CEO apparently loved the concept and got along with Al Mann. So, Ollie gets in and doesn't particularly like Afrezza, tough, tough break for MNKD and its fans. I'm not going to sit here and tell the world Ollie was wrong, he may have been right. I am, though, gonna say that I think he made a poor decision and that with SNY's strength, sales of Affreza could have been absolutely booming by now.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2017 19:22:05 GMT -5
babaoriley... call me old fashioned, but I use the term "investor" to mean someone that owns shares of a company. Just odd wording in my opinion. I don't read much into it. Assuming trials can show clinical superiority to RAAs, which most of us firmly believe, SNY certainly could have had a big success. Should have been a warning sign that they didn't immediately initiate such trials.
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