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Post by pantaloons on Dec 20, 2017 10:58:00 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen.
It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases?
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Post by goyocafe on Dec 20, 2017 11:13:58 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen. It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases? Perhaps in "The Upside Down".
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Post by kc on Dec 20, 2017 11:33:39 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen. It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases? Find a good international partner who invests in the company for 15% or 20% at $20.00 and you would have an explosion that would destroy all the shorts. Something is up. Mike C. is very silent these days. Kent Kresa didn't buy at $6.00 to lose and he had to talk a good game to get somebody to invest in the other 60 Million in shares at $6.00.
Let's hope there is a serious game changer in the first quarter.
Advertising results won't really be seen or known til about April 1, 2018. It takes that long for patients to get into the DR and get a new product.
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Post by barnstormer on Dec 20, 2017 11:35:19 GMT -5
I don't think that's the way Mike and company think. They need to do something fast. They have lost 30% of the 140M already.
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Post by casualinvestor on Dec 20, 2017 11:50:14 GMT -5
This is a well-timed short attack: - Right after shares authorized
- A not-record-breaking week of scripts (just lucky for them I guess)
- End of a good market year when some will be selling just for the losses
- There will likely be no news in the holiday season
- Lower general holiday volume
- Could have a real impact if the PPS doesn't get back to 3.25 by Jan 15th
If you don't sell, you won't be affected. In a while we'll see how many more shares have been sold short to make this happen. Selling-for-losses might mean that less shares were sold short. If you feel that MNKD has a superior product and a good management/executive team, always look for a good spot to buy. I thought 2.80 was going to hold and bought then.
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Post by madog365 on Dec 20, 2017 11:52:59 GMT -5
I don't think that's the way Mike and company think. They need to do something fast. They have lost 30% of the 140M already. How have they not delivered any updates on the checklist yet? The timing was perfect after the authorization vote. What is the entire company doing each day while the sales team is out there pushing Afrezza. There was talk about additional recapitilization, they cannot continue to run the company with a few quarters worth of cash. This fuels short sellers. Are there any positive developments to share on anything that has been PROMISED - how does the company justify turning down a deal in UAE if there is nothing else to replace it. Leaving a vacuum of information in the market is bad for MNKD, and they should know this from the years of short abuse. Don’t they know there will be massive speculation about dilution from the doubled share count.
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Post by kc on Dec 20, 2017 12:07:54 GMT -5
Let's hope that the first week or two of 2018 there is something monumental ahead.
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Post by sweedee79 on Dec 20, 2017 12:28:10 GMT -5
I just saw a Trulicity commercial. They are offering it for $25 per month for the next two years. Lets hope Dachis can start selling afrezza direct soon for a small flat fixed amount. Maybe $50 is too much and it too should be $25.1 dollar buys 1.24 units. 25 dollars buys 31 units. unit based pricing. 1.24 a unit is high.... considering that most PWDs take substantially more units of Afrezza vs sub-q because they can and also achieve near normal A1Cs with way less fear of hypo .. this is amazing... however, until Afrezza is officially labeled superior I think there will be problems with insurance coverage due to cost and our noninferior status.. and also the current standard of care.. Insurance companies at this point don't care if your A1C is near normal if the standard of care only asks that the A1C be <7
Why would an insurance company want to pay out 2K a month for insulin when they can get by with paying less for sub-q... both insulins are noninferior... Insurance companies already complain they don't have enough money and premiums go up every year..
Since Mike has seemed reluctant to lower price per unit of Afrezza, I certainly hope they are striving to get the label changed to a superior rating.. Our last label change was great from a marketing perspective.... but we really need that superior rating to fight insurance companies and the current standard of care..
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 20, 2017 12:47:59 GMT -5
On the subject of Standard of Care, I think one of the current trial studies may challenge the current ADA SoC:
Initiating Mealtime Ultra-Rapid Acting Insulin (Afrezza) in Uncontrolled Type 2 Diabetes Patients
Brief Summary:
To examine the effects of adding prandial Afrezza inhaled insulin to patients with type 2 diabetes who are not controlled after at least 6 months of other diabetes treatments including oral agents, basal insulin, or GLP-1 use.
Detailed Description:
Clinical inertia in intensifying treatment of type 2 diabetes patients occurs in the range of 70% in numerous real world database assessments. The investigator proposes treating patients with Afrezza who have an index HbA1c between 8% and 11% despite being treated with diabetes medications for at least 6 months. The response to Afrezza will be assessed with Continuous Glucose Monitoring Systems (CGMS) studies and initial and follow-up HbA1cs. The goal is to assess how the investigator can rapidly and safely initiate intensification in this patient population, where extensive delays in HbA1c improvement often occur.
Actual Study Start Date: October 16, 2017 Estimated Primary Completion Date: April 15, 2018 Estimated Study Completion Date: April 15, 2018
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IMO, the mark of whether Mike Castagna plans a disruptive strategy or to simply play by the industry rulebook (which he understands better than the previous management team) will be whether he challenges the ADA's Diabetes Standard of Care via sponsored researchers and media.
Getting buy in on a medical treatment that is industry-disruptive takes an entirely different approach, one that I'm not entirely convinced that Mike is capable of. Fortunately, he's not so arrogant that he wouldn't hire an experienced professional who specializes in disruptive medicine strategy. We'll see...
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Post by awesomo on Dec 20, 2017 12:48:25 GMT -5
I don't think that's the way Mike and company think. They need to do something fast. They have lost 30% of the 140M already. That's not how authorized shares work, they didn't lose 30%. They can choose to issue these shares at any point in the future and a specified price. But yeah, if they decided to do an offering right now at this PPS, it would be absolutely terrible and would destroy all the goodwill they have built up recently.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Dec 20, 2017 12:48:37 GMT -5
You were giving away a time limited demo or the full product? Mike is already giving away demos of Afrezza via vouchers. I gave away demo disks. If you wanted the full application all you had to do was send me an email and we would give you the ftp credentials. Mike needs to set the price for the next 2 years at $50 and flood the market. After 3 years we are doing 500 scripts a week with a paradigm shifting super blockbuster product. MNKD can not compete against BP on a playing field titled against them. Its time to tilt it in their favor. Unless Mike has some deals going we can't keep doing the same thing which means adding a few scripts every week. Technology is now in place to support the launch. VDex type coaching programs need to spring up like dandelions to link the PWD to the online services like Onduo and One Drop and insurance is standing in their way. Set the price, do the TV commercials and stand out of the way. 70+% of T2 are not at an A1c of 7. More important nearly 100% of newly diagnosed PWDs are scared and have no idea what they are facing and are looking for help. Send the message that the #1 killer is heart disease and PWDs are 3x more likely to get it and the way to stop it is to stop the spike and keep non-diabetic BG, Maybe there are other ways to stop the spike but the easiest and short of a highly carb restricted diet "safest" is afrezza. It seems like a no-brainer to me. This was how WhatsApp took the whole SMS market within few months.
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Post by longinvstr on Dec 20, 2017 14:12:32 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen. It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases? My second year of college, I had a roommate with a very interesting study philosophy. He'd raise his vodka-lemonade and confidently pronounce, "The sooner I get behind, the more time I have to catch up!" I hope our story ends better than his did, MNKD graduates and goes on to a very productive life. Now, we can't drink the water in Michigan and we make our cars in Mexico. Sure, why can't a temporarily low share price be beneficial?
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Post by traderdennis on Dec 20, 2017 14:20:52 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen. It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases? Find a good international partner who invests in the company for 15% or 20% at $20.00 and you would have an explosion that would destroy all the shorts. Something is up. Mike C. is very silent these days. Kent Kresa didn't buy at $6.00 to lose and he had to talk a good game to get somebody to invest in the other 60 Million in shares at $6.00.
Let's hope there is a serious game changer in the first quarter.
Advertising results won't really be seen or known til about April 1, 2018. It takes that long for patients to get into the DR and get a new product.
There is no investor(s) who bought 10 million shares as an investment in the private placement. All signs point to Deerfield shorting 10 million shares prior to the placement and Deerfield using the pipe placement to cover their very short term short. So it really is retail who paid above 6 that took the placement.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 14:22:07 GMT -5
Is it possible that allowing the share price to depreciate would somehow work in MNKD's favor? For example, by allowing short interest to accumulate further, would a short squeeze boost share price to a higher level than if the share price prior to the squeeze was higher? This is just one possible explanation. I'm curious as to how this will play out and I'm wondering what sort of strategy is being employed. The 140M authorized shares is, in my mind, a big wild card, so anything can happen. It may seem paradoxical, but perhaps under some circumstances, a depressed share price might actually be strength for the company. Are there historical examples of such cases? No, having lower share price is never good for a company.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 14:38:01 GMT -5
.02. If I were Mike and knew opening up investors to more dilution would take a hit in sp, I think I'd take all my lumps at once ... At the end of the year, after I just pulled in some $ from a squeezy run-up,when I'm getting hit for missing my targets, and when tax loss selling is going to happen anyway. Then those investors who are disillusioned can benefit from maximizing their loss on paper against other gains. Those of us who can't benefit/take a loss, or want to stay in, are going to be riding it in any case though this effectively (for investor vs. trader), brief and minor dip. Let's be realistic - we're at what, $2.99/share at moment? Not .99 again. This way, Mike C and the MNKD team starts the year clean with the bandaid already ripped off. Hope it is the entire bandaid..... Only problem with that reasoning is that there are feedback loops or spirals that can take hold. The lower the share price, the harder the hit from dilution in order to raise a given amount of cash. The more dilution expected the lower the price goes. Authorizing that many shares may have a self fulfilling effect, driving the price down and thus assuring more shares are necessary. This is especially true in the absence of any concrete info from management about when profitability can be expected (and indicating an expectation is only wise if they really have the visibility to achieve the guidance).
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