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Post by stevebelllv on Dec 20, 2017 14:39:00 GMT -5
Kent Kressa is a smart guy with a great track record. Not sure why the company is so silent lately. I have been a shareholder for years and have the scars t prove it. These declines are nothing new, but for some reason these recent declines seem different. The articles used to have an impact, but with so much negativity they have lost their impact. The new shares are the 800 pound gorilla. Why now-raising cash by driving down the price to sell the 140 million shares in 2018 sort of makes sense. But this is awful to watch, again
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Post by stevebelllv on Dec 20, 2017 14:48:54 GMT -5
The company has been quiet lately. But, I don't expect any announcement until 1st quarter 2018. It's just MNKD
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Post by bill on Dec 20, 2017 15:42:44 GMT -5
As much as I have been and am bullish on MNKD, it seems to be that wall street has decided that the label change was meaningless. Therefore, the share price will now descend back towards $1 or lower where it resided prior to the label change. Essentially, the rise in share price was predicated on an increase in scripts that hasn't been as dramatic as it needed to be to substantiate the price.
MNKD management is probably celebrating the holidays and won't do anything until a few weeks into the new year. Won't they be surprised to find that all those extra shares they got approved on next to worthless--again.
All of this is very annoying. Horrible timing on the Board of Directors and Mike C's part to schedule the vote just before the holidays if they weren't sure they could follow through with something positive. They created the perfect set up for the shorts to destroy them yet again.
As long as they don't need to use those shares for anything that's dependent on the current share price, this is all meaningless--just wait until the good news hits. OTOH, letting the share price drop back to $1 or lower needlessly reduced their options. Sigh...
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Post by pantaloons on Dec 20, 2017 15:58:17 GMT -5
As much as I have been and am bullish on MNKD, it seems to be that wall street has decided that the label change was meaningless. Therefore, the share price will now descend back towards $1 or lower where it resided prior to the label change. Essentially, the rise in share price was predicated on an increase in scripts that hasn't been as dramatic as it needed to be to substantiate the price. MNKD management is probably celebrating the holidays and won't do anything until a few weeks into the new year. Won't they be surprised to find that all those extra shares they got approved on next to worthless--again. All of this is very annoying. Horrible timing on the Board of Directors and Mike C's part to schedule the vote just before the holidays if they weren't sure they could follow through with something positive. They created the perfect set up for the shorts to destroy them yet again. As long as they don't need to use those shares for anything that's dependent on the current share price, this is all meaningless--just wait until the good news hits. OTOH, letting the share price drop back to $1 or lower needlessly reduced their options. Sigh... I'm beginning to suspect that at this point, even news of a substantial partnership to sell Afrezza in the U.S. may see a temporary boost in share price that won't really be sustainable - just as had been observed with the recent announcement of the improved label change. What will reliably sustain an increased share price is actual sales/scripts growth, which could be preceded by, e.g., favorable results of the STAT study and improved insurance coverage.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 17:25:14 GMT -5
As much as I have been and am bullish on MNKD, it seems to be that wall street has decided that the label change was meaningless. Therefore, the share price will now descend back towards $1 or lower where it resided prior to the label change. Essentially, the rise in share price was predicated on an increase in scripts that hasn't been as dramatic as it needed to be to substantiate the price. MNKD management is probably celebrating the holidays and won't do anything until a few weeks into the new year. Won't they be surprised to find that all those extra shares they got approved on next to worthless--again. All of this is very annoying. Horrible timing on the Board of Directors and Mike C's part to schedule the vote just before the holidays if they weren't sure they could follow through with something positive. They created the perfect set up for the shorts to destroy them yet again. As long as they don't need to use those shares for anything that's dependent on the current share price, this is all meaningless--just wait until the good news hits. OTOH, letting the share price drop back to $1 or lower needlessly reduced their options. Sigh... I'm beginning to suspect that at this point, even news of a substantial partnership to sell Afrezza in the U.S. may see a temporary boost in share price that won't really be sustainable - just as had been observed with the recent announcement of the improved label change. What will reliably sustain an increased share price is actual sales/scripts growth, which could be preceded by, e.g., favorable results of the STAT study and improved insurance coverage. If it were a deal with a suitable big fish pharma and had substantial upfront payment, I think it would have very positive effect on share price. However, I don't think there is any such deal available to MNKD. Management seems to be indicating that they are still planning on going it alone when it comes to marketing. They have talked about potentially working with a company that has underutilized sales staff to target PCPs, but that likely that isn't the sort of deal that would have any upfront payment or illicit much positive investor sentiment since the other company making their underutilized sales staff available in exchange for payments from MNKD wouldn't be an indication of solid confidence Afrezza will become a blockbuster.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 17:28:09 GMT -5
As much as I have been and am bullish on MNKD, it seems to be that wall street has decided that the label change was meaningless. Therefore, the share price will now descend back towards $1 or lower where it resided prior to the label change. Essentially, the rise in share price was predicated on an increase in scripts that hasn't been as dramatic as it needed to be to substantiate the price. MNKD management is probably celebrating the holidays and won't do anything until a few weeks into the new year. Won't they be surprised to find that all those extra shares they got approved on next to worthless--again. All of this is very annoying. Horrible timing on the Board of Directors and Mike C's part to schedule the vote just before the holidays if they weren't sure they could follow through with something positive. They created the perfect set up for the shorts to destroy them yet again. As long as they don't need to use those shares for anything that's dependent on the current share price, this is all meaningless--just wait until the good news hits. OTOH, letting the share price drop back to $1 or lower needlessly reduced their options. Sigh... Other than giving incentive options to employees, anything they do with the shares will be dependent on the then current share price.
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Post by pantaloons on Dec 20, 2017 17:38:46 GMT -5
I'm beginning to suspect that at this point, even news of a substantial partnership to sell Afrezza in the U.S. may see a temporary boost in share price that won't really be sustainable - just as had been observed with the recent announcement of the improved label change. What will reliably sustain an increased share price is actual sales/scripts growth, which could be preceded by, e.g., favorable results of the STAT study and improved insurance coverage. If it were a deal with a suitable big fish pharma and had substantial upfront payment, I think it would have very positive effect on share price. However, I don't think there is any such deal available to MNKD. Management seems to be indicating that they are still planning on going it alone when it comes to marketing. They have talked about potentially working with a company that has underutilized sales staff to target PCPs, but that likely that isn't the sort of deal that would have any upfront payment or illicit much positive investor sentiment since the other company making their underutilized sales staff available in exchange for payments from MNKD wouldn't be an indication of solid confidence Afrezza will become a blockbuster. I think it'd probably have to be a compelling partnership and agreement for the PPS to increase in the mid/longer term. Shorts would argue that it could be a repeat of the Sanofi situation, even with the improved label. I think publication of the STAT study and improvement in insurance coverage is key to sustainable increase in PPS, however such a situation doesn't need to be exclusive of a concurrent promising partnership. I think this is also more attainable, given the circumstances. Sure, MNKD could partner with BP, but why not wait until they have more leverage? With that said, in the near term (and long term), I'd bet the STAT study will be most influential in increasing script growth. I hope the results will be released sooner than originally projected.
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Post by wgreystone on Dec 20, 2017 18:50:26 GMT -5
Mike can fix the insurance problem real fast. All he has to do is cut the price of a 90ct box to $50, no insurance needed. The way AOL made the market back in the day was to give away CDs at $0 at a zillion stores. I did the same with a software product which was fully NITF 2.0 certified which I was selling to government agencies. I was shut out of every Government contract and finally got on a schedule but had no sales. I made demo CDs and left them at all the target agencies and gave it away for the price of an email. I will warn Mike doing such a thing can really piss some people off. You were giving away a time limited demo or the full product? Mike is already giving away demos of Afrezza via vouchers. It doesn't have to be so dramatic. If Afrezza is priced 30% below competitors' products, he should be able to lock down deals quickly.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 19:12:38 GMT -5
You were giving away a time limited demo or the full product? Mike is already giving away demos of Afrezza via vouchers. It doesn't have to be so dramatic. If Afrezza is priced 30% below competitors' products, he should be able to lock down deals quickly. Whatever it is it would seem Mike, having spent his career doing this, would likely know. Matt from here on PB did once post that the way the deals are done to get preferred coverage would make it hard to be able to lower price enough to counter what the PBM would lose if they missed their target volumes... i.e. MNKD could give it to PBMs and it might still be in their monetary interest to minimize or prevent its use, at least while Afrezza is still only being prescribed by a very limited number of doctors. Hope I'm not misrepresenting what he said. Apply grain of salt. I would certainly defer to those that have worked in the industry, as it's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes unless one has been there.
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Post by wgreystone on Dec 20, 2017 20:01:40 GMT -5
It doesn't have to be so dramatic. If Afrezza is priced 30% below competitors' products, he should be able to lock down deals quickly. Whatever it is it would seem Mike, having spent his career doing this, would likely know. Matt from here on PB did once post that the way the deals are done to get preferred coverage would make it hard to be able to lower price enough to counter what the PBM would lose if they missed their target volumes... i.e. MNKD could give it to PBMs and it might still be in their monetary interest to minimize or prevent its use, at least while Afrezza is still only being prescribed by a very limited number of doctors. Hope I'm not misrepresenting what he said. Apply grain of salt. I would certainly defer to those that have worked in the industry, as it's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes unless one has been there. I have investment in another small pharma company. Its drug was approved in the same time frame as Afrezza. The drug is also in a crowded category just like Afrezza. It achieved 90% unrestricted coverage a year ago. There must be a way to crack the code.
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bac
Lab Rat
Posts: 37
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Post by bac on Dec 20, 2017 20:39:58 GMT -5
I am a long time MNKD shareholder (> 10 years) with the following observations. What we are seeing with share price is a result of MannKind miss-management.
First. The time wasting switch of inhalers (Medtone to Dreamboat) caused a delay in Afrezza’s launch of at least three years. (Given that new drug uptake is so many years in the making, they were just wasted years.)
Second. Based the SEC approval “success” of clinical trials 171 and 175, MannKind partnered with Sanofi to market and sell Afrezza. There were two big problems with Afrezza’s approval. 1. The SEC approved Afrezza with non-inferior status. 2. The clinical trials failed to gain SUPERIORITY because MannKind did not know how to titrate & dose Afrezza. (!!! Why did they even start clinical trials without knowing? So don’t blame Sanofi too severely for failure, when MannKind did not give Sanofi effective dose and titration info.)
Diabetics face a daily tightrope walk between too little and too much blood sugar. Mistakes can cost ones life. Therefore, doctors are justifiably reluctant to change medications when patients have kept themselves alive for years on existing medications.
MannKind needs is to sponsor a clinical trial that results in Afrezza’s SUPERIORITY to the current best mealtime insulin. With Afrezza’s superiority validated by the SEC, doctors will have to either start prescribing Afrezza or have a really good excuse not to prescribe. In my opinion, current Afrezza sales is handcuffed by the non-inferior label.
Both VDEX and the in-silico insulin simulations (Improving Efficacy of Inhaled Technosphere Insulin (Afrezza) by Postmeal Dosing: In-silico Clinical Trial with the University of Virginia/Padova Type 1 Diabetes Simulator) have developed Afrezza titration and dose procedures. Why isn’t MannKind a leader in Afrezza titration & dosing???
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Post by mnkdnewbie on Dec 20, 2017 20:53:18 GMT -5
Sec=fda
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Post by mnkdfann on Dec 20, 2017 22:46:36 GMT -5
Find a good international partner who invests in the company for 15% or 20% at $20.00 and you would have an explosion that would destroy all the shorts. Something is up. Mike C. is very silent these days. Kent Kresa didn't buy at $6.00 to lose and he had to talk a good game to get somebody to invest in the other 60 Million in shares at $6.00.
Let's hope there is a serious game changer in the first quarter.
Advertising results won't really be seen or known til about April 1, 2018. It takes that long for patients to get into the DR and get a new product.
There is no investor(s) who bought 10 million shares as an investment in the private placement. All signs point to Deerfield shorting 10 million shares prior to the placement and Deerfield using the pipe placement to cover their very short term short. So it really is retail who paid above 6 that took the placement. Next you'll be saying that there is no Santy Claus.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 20, 2017 23:33:26 GMT -5
Whatever it is it would seem Mike, having spent his career doing this, would likely know. Matt from here on PB did once post that the way the deals are done to get preferred coverage would make it hard to be able to lower price enough to counter what the PBM would lose if they missed their target volumes... i.e. MNKD could give it to PBMs and it might still be in their monetary interest to minimize or prevent its use, at least while Afrezza is still only being prescribed by a very limited number of doctors. Hope I'm not misrepresenting what he said. Apply grain of salt. I would certainly defer to those that have worked in the industry, as it's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes unless one has been there. I have investment in another small pharma company. Its drug was approved in the same time frame as Afrezza. The drug is also in a crowded category just like Afrezza. It achieved 90% unrestricted coverage a year ago. There must be a way to crack the code. Do the FDA trials used for approval show that it has clinical superiority compared to the competitors? Also bear in mind that Sanofi probably wasn't even trying to achieve better formulary placement for most of the time they had Afrezza, so you might want to compare where this other company was 18 months ago to be a fair comparison.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 21, 2017 5:32:11 GMT -5
There is no investor(s) who bought 10 million shares as an investment in the private placement. All signs point to Deerfield shorting 10 million shares prior to the placement and Deerfield using the pipe placement to cover their very short term short. So it really is retail who paid above 6 that took the placement. Next you'll be saying that there is no Santy Claus. I think that clause may have been redacted...
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