bac
Lab Rat
Posts: 37
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Post by bac on Jan 14, 2018 15:40:52 GMT -5
Thread: "Predictions for 2018 RX numbers"
Quarter Quarter Quarter Total Increase Increase Quarter Scripts Scripts Percent -------------------------------- 2017 Q2 3836 2017 Q3 4875 1039 27.1 2017 Q4 5703 828 17.0 ------------------------------- 2018 Q1 7414 1711 30.0 2018 Q2 10750 3336 45.0 2018 Q3 17200 6450 60.0 2018 Q4 31820 14620 85.0 ------------------------------- 2018sum=67185
Based on 2017 scripts, 2018 cannot be favorably projected.
The 2018 quarterly scripts listed above are wishful thinking.
The fact that 2017 Q4 script-increase percent (17%) declined from Q3 (27.1%), alarm bells should be going off at MannKind.
MannKind Recommendations: 1. Fix the script retention problem. 2. Run a small pilot clinical trial (say 40 patients each for T1 & T2) that works out the trial protocols and demonstrates Afrezza superiority. (A1C superiority, time-in-range superiority and hypo superiority) 3. Run full-size clinical trials resulting in FDA giving Afrezza a superior label.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 14, 2018 15:45:49 GMT -5
Quote; " Afrezza is a niche product."reply: Strange the physicians are using the same words the analyst from Goldman used in a note, when they covered MNKD. Quote: "It's too expensive." reply: I am not sure why the physician would care about this. Patients are usually covered by insurance. Why would the physician care about the cost of the insulin? Quote; "Patients are not interested" reply; physicians say that? Peppy, we had the same responses as you to those questions. Thats why I added the translation that those comments are doctorspeak for not knowing much about the product. Docs of course don't want to admit that to their patients. Interestingly enough, with two Vdex patients this week who discussed Afrezza with physician friends, the physicians BOTH said patients were not that interested in Afrezza. That's just absurd. I could tell from other comments the docs made that neither was that familiar with Afrezza yet each has a practice heavily devoted to diabetes. I've been convinced for quite a while that your method of marketing Afrezza is the only one that will work (in this country, anyway) until there is such a ground-swell by diabetics that insurance companies will be forced to capitulate...some. My understanding is that you enjoy a tremendous retention rate - I think that's an area where your hands-on, experienced, expert in the product approach is a huge advantage and a huge service to your patients. That's what needs to be expanded - VDEX and VDEX-like operations. I have been preaching this to mannmade and Sports for some time now. Sports is indefatigable, can you imagine her energy helping you with the VDEX model. You just need her to sign covenant that she will use all of her considerable energy to expanding the VDEX model, and not divert any to fighting silly wars on the twitter, stock-twits, PB, etc. You need to see this through, just as you say, the average docs are just not gonna do it, unless, as I mentioned above, they get hit left and right with demands from their patients. As they said in Kentucky Fried Movie, "you have our gratitude."
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 14, 2018 16:07:10 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. Well, you brought it up, lay it out here for us shareholders. What sales model do you want to see?
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 14, 2018 16:18:26 GMT -5
I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way. I agree Sports has PR ability, determination and ambition second to nobody to help Afrezza grow. Regarding “too expensive”, would it be possible to sell the company or partner with a company in perhaps, say China, where Affezza could possibly be manufactured at a lower cost?
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 14, 2018 17:02:25 GMT -5
Personal attention, education, hand holding, until the training wheels come off.....and the lights come on! ( Afrezza Always :-)
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Post by peppy on Jan 14, 2018 18:46:39 GMT -5
Personal attention, education, hand holding, until the training wheels come off.....and the lights come on! ( Afrezza Always :-) I really like the new pic! Nice one.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2018 19:21:50 GMT -5
Personal attention, education, hand holding, until the training wheels come off.....and the lights come on! ( Afrezza Always :-) Sports, you seem to very close to VDEX. And if what they say is true, this might not be our year after all. My question to you, are you still buying at these levels? And, do you see major catalyst on the horizon? Personally, I believe that VDEX has got something. I have had a feeling that sales in the US would be most difficult so to various insures and its high cost. Therefore, we should look overseas, Japan, China, etc.
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Post by helmut8056 on Jan 14, 2018 19:31:49 GMT -5
Peppy: "Nice Picture"
She looks great; What happened!
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Post by lennymnkd on Jan 14, 2018 20:01:02 GMT -5
Ok ok ! Enough already .... let’s move on to pain management/ migraine relief.... the possibility are endless .
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Post by peppy on Jan 14, 2018 20:01:54 GMT -5
Peppy: "Nice Picture"
She looks great; What happened! Sports always looks great. Just a picture change on the avatar happened.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 14, 2018 20:37:12 GMT -5
Personal attention, education, hand holding, until the training wheels come off.....and the lights come on! ( Afrezza Always :-) Sports, you seem to very close to VDEX. And if what they say is true, this might not be our year after all. My question to you, are you still buying at these levels? And, do you see major catalyst on the horizon? Personally, I believe that VDEX has got something. I have had a feeling that sales in the US would be most difficult so to various insures and its high cost. Therefore, we should look overseas, Japan, China, etc. I’m not buying anymore right now, I might sell some calls if we get a pump/jump, then I plan on going in heavy at the beginning of the last half of the year, third-quarter. ( Buying more 2020 calls.) I see the second half of the year being are best for a variety of reasons. I’m also worried about a market correction the second half of the year so I think it would be safer to be in MNKD at that point. I feel we should absolutely look overseas, a catalyst could be the filing for the hypertension drug. Mike’s guidance for when we break even. And continual expansion of the Vdex model.
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Post by careful2invest on Jan 14, 2018 22:46:26 GMT -5
Sports, you seem to very close to VDEX. And if what they say is true, this might not be our year after all. My question to you, are you still buying at these levels? And, do you see major catalyst on the horizon? Personally, I believe that VDEX has got something. I have had a feeling that sales in the US would be most difficult so to various insures and its high cost. Therefore, we should look overseas, Japan, China, etc.b I’m not buying anymore right now, I might sell some calls if we get a pump/jump, then I plan on going in heavy at the beginning of the last half of the year, third-quarter. ( Buying more 2020 calls.) I see the second half of the year being are best for a variety of reasons. I’m also worried about a market correction the second half of the year so I think it would be safer to be in MNKD at that point. I feel we should absolutely look overseas, a catalyst could be the filing for the hypertension drug. Mike’s guidance for when we break even. And continual expansion of the Vdex model. I totally respect your plan Sports, as well as all of the predictions. But news of a heavy hitter or BP buying into Afrezza at any time would change all of that instantly! I'm not predicting that to happen, but who can assure anyone that it will not happen! I gave up predicting anything about this company since I am averaging uncomfortably close to zero thus far! At any rate, whenever it does blow up for the good, I will still be here (Lord willing) because I am not selling! GLTA!
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 15, 2018 2:34:52 GMT -5
You're close to zero WOW! You da man!!! I'm loaded up also ... but, not even close to zero. BUT ... at this point ... when the pps flies ... it all becomes meaningless. That is ... unless you're a short. Aaaarrrggghhh!!!
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Post by careful2invest on Jan 15, 2018 3:33:55 GMT -5
You're close to zero WOW! You da man!!! I'm loaded up also ... but, not even close to zero. BUT ... at this point ... when the pps flies ... it all becomes meaningless. That is ... unless you're a short. Aaaarrrggghhh!!! Just to be clear, I was referring to my accuracy, or lack thereof, in predicting what MNKD will do, or not do next, or what the pps will be and so on... My percentage of accuracy is close to zero on all of the above. I am hopeful however, that MNKD will get a "partner" of sorts to market Afrezza thoroughly and effectively throughout the USA and abroad! GLTA!
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Post by pat on Jan 15, 2018 9:05:41 GMT -5
I'm going to buy 3000 more shares post Deerfield announcement. Than I'm going to go to ground and ignore this stock. Try and stop myself from googling nates stocktwits handle every few hours. Which I will inevitably not be able to do. Cuz this company been an obsession for years. And I'm crazy with it.
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