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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 15, 2018 9:31:41 GMT -5
I'm going to buy 3000 more shares post Deerfield announcement. Than I'm going to go to ground and ignore this stock. Try and stop myself from googling nates stocktwits handle every few hours. Which I will inevitably not be able to do. Cuz this company been an obsession for years. And I'm crazy with it. I do that same thing, I don’t even bother to go to StockTwits. I just google Nate on StockTwits at least every evening!
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 15, 2018 9:48:53 GMT -5
Ok ok ! Enough already .... let’s move on to pain management/ migraine relief.... the possibility are endless . No, let's move on to predictions. LOL. The discussion is so very interesting. Persistent pounding into the goal line will get the ball into the end zone.
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 15, 2018 9:51:57 GMT -5
I'm going to buy 3000 more shares post Deerfield announcement. Than I'm going to go to ground and ignore this stock. Try and stop myself from googling nates stocktwits handle every few hours. Which I will inevitably not be able to do. Cuz this company been an obsession for years. And I'm crazy with it. Give us your numbers and play along for the fun and the ride this year. What do you think the TRX will get to in 2018?
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Post by hellodolly on Jan 15, 2018 10:07:28 GMT -5
Well, we have quite the range of predictions. Here is what we have so far. I will keep the predictions open until the end of January, when it will be closed for adds, edits and other changes you may want to make. Right now, as it stands we have the low end 34,758 and we have the high end 116,428. Hellodolly-34,458 Casual Investor - 45,000-61,000 parrerob - 48,517 Compound26 - 78,000-104,000 figglebird - 108,688 tchalaa - 113,100 Clement - 116,428 I've read all the posts so far and I haven't had the chance to reply to them but I encourage everyone to participate. Based on today's information and what we now, what MNKD has released, what Mike has tweeted and said in many taped interviews, studies in progress, studies released, etc. your own DD and time as a MNKD investor...gives most of you enough to participate and have a little fun. I promise you, as we get closer to the end of thisyear, this could get pretty funny, too. Don't be fearful of putting your hard earned online and anonymous reputation on the line by playing. As a side, I appreciate the revenue projections being put out there. I'm on a long weekend, I can scram from here at 1430 hours so, this is the list until I come back after MLK Day. I can pull up proboards at home and read but, forgot my PW so I can't add. Maybe I'll play around and reset the PW from home so I can do this someplace else besides work. Besides, y'all should come visit me at Gun Club Rd.
Hellodolly-34,458 thekid2499 - 42,123 Casual Investor - 45,000-61,000 xanet - 69,572 parrerob - 48,517 traderdennis - 36,500 Compound26 - 52,000 lsl428 - 51,999 figglebird - 108,688 tchalaa - 113,100 Clement - 116,428
Well, I'm not as hopeless or helpless as I thought. I was able to just change my password, duh? Anyways, I'm logged in and have read a lot of dialogue and commentary, especially from VDEX related to how doctors are still viewing this as a niche drug. Well, everything is a niche drug until it finally becomes recognized as mainstream. Even then, it may still be called 'niche'. But, some times the definition of the niche drug is changed to something else and in the case of Afrezza, it will be called 'disruptive' or 'holygrail' or redefine the SOC for PWDs. Whatever it is finally called, it won't matter to the DC or to those who put their scientific reputations and business reputations on the line, a la VDEX. This is the newest update. Door closes for best guesstimates, January 31, 2018. Hellodolly-34,458 thekid2499 - 42,123 Casual Investor - 45,000-61,000 xanet - 69,572 parrerob - 48,517 traderdennis - 36,500 Compound26 - 52,000 lsl428 - 51,999 figglebird - 108,688 cretin11- 32,747 tchalaa - 113,100 cjm18 - 32,999 Clement - 116,428 jay1ajay1a - 52,709
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Post by alethea on Jan 15, 2018 11:11:00 GMT -5
30 million diabetics. If 10 % of them use Afrezza (assuming insurance will cover) thats roughly 500,000 refills a year. However we need to double that number of refills since, if my son's use pattern is considered average (?) it will take at least two of the 90(8u) and 90(4u) to cover what a diabetic actually needs per month. (I am not sure Mannkind gets this yet). So that is 1 million 90\90 kits year, at least until they adjust the pack size for reality, after which it is 500,000 refills/year. Speaking of reality... Priced at $830 per kit, the cost of that much Rx volume will be almost a billion dollars a year. NOW were gettin' rich!! Enough humalog for a month is about $500 compared to $1600 for Afrezza. Think of how much money we will make at these prices. The insurance companies will love us since their rake will be that much higher too.....right? Maybe that prediction of 500,000 refills a year is too low since we are going to get all the type 2s health plans currently paying pennies a month for metformin to switch to Afrezza costing $1600 a month too. agreed zuegirdor, $1600 a month in todays US dollars is crazy. we need insurance. Peppy, I love you BUT why do you think Insurance Companies want to or will pay $1,600 per month when injected insulin is much cheaper? ? They don't. They won't. Afrezza is so far overpriced it's ridiculous. Cut the price of Afrezza SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW injected insulin and increase its Sales by three, four, five times or more! Make insurance companies our friends... by making Afrezza CHEAPER than Humalog and Novalog.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 15, 2018 11:34:13 GMT -5
agreed zuegirdor, $1600 a month in todays US dollars is crazy. we need insurance. Peppy, I love you BUT why do you think Insurance Companies want to or will pay $1,600 per month when injected insulin is much cheaper? ? They don't. They won't. Afrezza is so far overpriced it's ridiculous. Cut the price of Afrezza SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW injected insulin and increase its Sales by three, four, five times or more! Make insurance companies our friends... by making Afrezza CHEAPER than Humalog and Novalog. Why do you think if this is the case that they haven’t done it? I talked to a rep who said the only thing that’ll help insurance is more patient demand. Then I talked to a real smart person over the weekend and he said the only thing that will help is the person they hired to do the negotiations with the insurance company’s. Really three different theory’s. Has anyone ever asked Mike? or has Mike ever talked about it? It makes sense that lowering the price would help, but I have no experience in this field at all. Has that worked before with other drugs?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 12:00:16 GMT -5
Insurance companies will pay for Afrezza when they believe it will be profitable for them to do so. Apparently, they don't believe it yet. Sigh.
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Post by peppy on Jan 15, 2018 13:38:42 GMT -5
agreed zuegirdor, $1600 a month in todays US dollars is crazy. we need insurance. Peppy, I love you BUT why do you think Insurance Companies want to or will pay $1,600 per month when injected insulin is much cheaper??
They don't. They won't. Afrezza is so far overpriced it's ridiculous. Cut the price of Afrezza SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW injected insulin and increase its Sales by three, four, five times or more! Make insurance companies our friends... by making Afrezza CHEAPER than Humalog and Novalog. I love you also. I do not think they will pay that much. I agree with you totally. as an aside, the you tube videos I watch at nauseam. Gary Null, pointed out, the there was a piece of legislation that went through the national legislative bodies, that prevents the pharmacy purchasing manufactures from negotiating the price with the manufactures. Then the video proceeded to show (paraphrasing) a prozac prescription costing @ $200 dollars for the month with the cost of 11 cents per capsule to produce. additionally the price increase co insides with you and zue stopping the private pay. (I am freaked out) When we started this $330 a month which was not dose sufficient has now turned into $1600 a month. a house payment. Bac wrote this; Thread: "Predictions for 2018 RX numbers" Quarter Quarter Quarter Total Increase Increase Quarter Scripts Scripts Percent -------------------------------- 2017 Q2 3836 2017 Q3 4875 1039 27.1 2017 Q4 5703 828 17.0 ------------------------------- 2018 Q1 7414 1711 30.0 2018 Q2 10750 3336 45.0 2018 Q3 17200 6450 60.0 2018 Q4 31820 14620 85.0 ------------------------------- 2018sum=67185 Based on 2017 scripts, 2018 cannot be favorably projected. The 2018 quarterly scripts listed above are wishful thinking. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9337/predictions-2018-rx-numbers?page=6#ixzz54HPNGO00------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Then vex diabetes wrote: I wanted to jump in with some real world feedback on the issue of script writing. Don't mean to be a downer, just giving info that board members might find helpful. We at Vdex interface with a lot of providers and a basic principle we operate under is the more experienced a provider is in the field of diabetes, the LESS likely he/she is to recommend Afrezza. It's obviously not 100%, but the phenomenon is common enough to make the point. In other words, those most "in the know" have soured on the product. I won't get into why that is; most here probably already know. The most common feedback we get from such providers is: "Afrezza's a niche product." "It's too expensive." "Patients aren't that interested." Translation for all of these: the provider doesn't really understand the product. I don't think reps calling on busy docs or TV advertising will turn the ship around quickly, if at all. The product is so different. The conditions of the industry are so unfavorable. The incentives work against providers. This product requires a different sales model. Of course, that's self-serving to say. But, that has been our experience. I hope I'm wrong and scripts take off in the new year. But regardless, we'll be fighting the fight either way.
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Post by peppy on Jan 15, 2018 13:54:40 GMT -5
Insurance companies will pay for Afrezza when they believe it will be profitable for them to do so. Apparently, they don't believe it yet. Sigh. liane and the board would have my head if I told you what I really have come to believe. Old Mac Donald had a farm, eeiii, eeiii, O. And on his farm he had some _______, eel, eel, O. (This nation sends animals to slaughter all the time.)
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Post by nylefty on Jan 15, 2018 13:56:15 GMT -5
Peppy, I love you BUT why do you think Insurance Companies want to or will pay $1,600 per month when injected insulin is much cheaper? ? They don't. They won't. Afrezza is so far overpriced it's ridiculous. Cut the price of Afrezza SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW injected insulin and increase its Sales by three, four, five times or more! Make insurance companies our friends... by making Afrezza CHEAPER than Humalog and Novalog. Why do you think if this is the case that they haven’t done it? I talked to a rep who said the only thing that’ll help insurance is more patient demand. Then I talked to a real smart person over the weekend and he said the only thing that will help is the person they hired to do the negotiations with the insurance company’s. Really three different theory’s. Has anyone ever asked Mike? or has Mike ever talked about it? It makes sense that lowering the price would help, but I have no experience in this field at all. Has that worked before with other drugs? I've just tweeted Mike about this and suggest that others do the same or contact him by email.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 15, 2018 14:03:52 GMT -5
Peppy, I love you BUT why do you think Insurance Companies want to or will pay $1,600 per month when injected insulin is much cheaper? ? They don't. They won't. Afrezza is so far overpriced it's ridiculous. Cut the price of Afrezza SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW injected insulin and increase its Sales by three, four, five times or more! Make insurance companies our friends... by making Afrezza CHEAPER than Humalog and Novalog. Why do you think if this is the case that they haven’t done it? I talked to a rep who said the only thing that’ll help insurance is more patient demand. Then I talked to a real smart person over the weekend and he said the only thing that will help is the person they hired to do the negotiations with the insurance company’s. Really three different theory’s. Has anyone ever asked Mike? or has Mike ever talked about it? It makes sense that lowering the price would help, but I have no experience in this field at all. Has that worked before with other drugs? Before the label change Mike stated something about not preemptively lowering price because the label change should enable better pricing... or something very similar to that. At the time they were presenting different possibilities for the label change including a different adjective/classification, which we did not get. To my knowledge there has been nothing said after the label change to indicate what effect the label as approved would have on pricing strategy.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 15, 2018 14:26:38 GMT -5
"zero on predictions?" Okay ... never mind. Too bad I can't get a Ruth Buzzi you tube video here.
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Post by peppy on Jan 15, 2018 14:31:19 GMT -5
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 15, 2018 14:38:35 GMT -5
Thanks peppy ... actually was looking for the one where she ends with "never mind".
Love those shows!
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Post by brentie on Jan 15, 2018 15:04:15 GMT -5
Thanks peppy ... actually was looking for the one where she ends with "never mind". Love those shows! Actually it was Gilda Radner.
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