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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 10:57:36 GMT -5
I have a better question. What will the market cap be if we don't get a partner? a better question would be "what will happen to the planet when it stops spinning on it's axis?" The same side of the moon always faces the earth. If you give the planets enough time, the same side of all of the plants are always going to be facing the sun because of gravity. The earth will eventually rotate on it's axis at the same rate it revolves around the Sun. I thought you might be interested in that little fact since you asked this type of question.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jul 16, 2014 11:01:35 GMT -5
a better question would be "what will happen to the planet when it stops spinning on it's axis?" The same side of the moon always faces the earth. If you give the planets enough time, the same side of all of the plants are always going to be facing the sun because of gravity. The earth will eventually rotate on it's axis at the same rate it revolves around the Sun. I thought you might be interested in that little fact since you asked this type of question. Oh! You are willing to give the planets enough time; but are unwilling to let the attorney's figure out the deal. Cosmic answer to a mundane concern. I have read all of your posts and it seems to me that you have always had concern about MNKD making it. Time will tell... with planets and patents.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jul 16, 2014 11:08:46 GMT -5
if you don't trust the management; maybe you'd be more comfortable in investing with a company who's management you do respect. Alfred Mann has done what big pharm has been unable to do. With Alfred's history of success; I am at ease in contrast to your heighten emotion. GLTY, but this may not be the investment for you; so find one that bring you happiness and satisfaction.
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Post by mannmade on Jul 16, 2014 11:20:15 GMT -5
I don't mean this to sound disrespectful to anyone... But how many people have actually been part of a deal this big and complicated let alone any deal to buy/sell a company in business these days? I have previously stated that I started from scratch and sold two companies... (Not nearly this big either but big enough) Now for the rest of the story... The first company (and the bigger of the two) had two previous deals with very large companies fall through at the last minute thru no fault of our own. In fact one fell thru the day we were supposed to sign the papers after we had spend 9 months and 60k in DD fees to lawyers and accountants, etc...
Put it another way for anyone in sales... Who in sales thought they had a deal when the person stopped picking up the phone on the other end for no reason... Or how many have seen their house fall out of escrow? Stuff happens people... I really don't think the people at Mannkind would intentionally mislead us. Believe me they are as ready for a deal as we are... But stuff happens... So yes I cannot say whether a deal will happen or not and perhaps they have made one or two miscalculations... But to take the leap that they are intentionally misleading us is a pretty big leap...
Better to focus your frustration on the AF's of the world... Or the lack of transparency on the short side. We can't even get current numbers when the report comes out every two weeks... With all the technology available the naked shorting that must be occurring should be a manageable and punishable crime. It is costing us more than anything Al and Company has ever done.
Btw, I am fine with people who want to bet against this company or any other but it should be a level playing field which it is clearly not...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 11:34:37 GMT -5
What will the share price be if management fails to deliver a partner?
I know it is hard but can you focus on that question?
I love it when people start giving investment advice on a message board. Or suggesting they know what someone should or shouldn't do based on a very valid question.
Now focus....give me your best reply to the question. I know you can do it. ""What will the share price be in October if management fails to deliver a partner?""
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Post by BD on Jul 16, 2014 12:11:55 GMT -5
So, are the odds "against them getting a partner" in the same way as the odds were against them to get FDA approval? How precisely are you figuring these "odds" of yours?
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 16, 2014 12:17:35 GMT -5
Purge, you've shown where you stand and I appreciate that. So, to answer your question, if we do not have a partnership announced to market and distribute Afrezza by October 1, I would guess we'd be around $8 - $8.50, and if not by November 1, then whack another .50 off. That assumes no other very good (technosphere partnership, for example), or bad news is released in the interim, and that the biotech index hasn't taken a big hit by that time. By that time, there will be another quarterly conference call and likely some public statements about how they continue negotiations, but some investors will be thinking, "uh, oh, Mann's being stubborn." Such sentiment can't be good for the share price.
I don't in any way that the company has been disingenuous about seeking a partner, and I'm quite sure they have talked and are talking to more than one potential. So, in my view, however, long it takes, the share price will recover to more or less where it would have gotten if the partnership had been announced earlier. As mannmade points out, deals can take a long time, and often deals fall apart at the end, for various reasons, including, unfortunately, by gamesmanship. I think MNKD might have been victim of that a few years ago, and surely will be more wary this time. You don't want to narrow your choices to one and then enter long negotiations, as things change and bargaining leverage is lost, as other suitors go on their way.
They will need to negotiate hard with a few companies and then get a very detailed letter of understanding from which to draw final docs, so that once they come to a meeting of the minds, the final docs will not be all that difficult to draw, and a hard date by which to close, no more than a month from the letter, such that it would be easier to go back to other interested parties should the initial suitor get cold feet.
So that's what I think the price will be, how about you, Purge?
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Post by mannmade on Jul 16, 2014 12:58:43 GMT -5
Hey Purge do you follow the NBA at all? If you did you would know that the Houston Rockets thought they had a deal in place with Chris Bosh once Le Bron James declared for Cleveland and in fact Bosh entered into negotiations with The Rockets for an 88m contract over four years. To clear the cap space, The Rockets took a chance on not signing Chandler Parsons to the last year of his contract for less than a million dollars and instead let him go out as an unrestricted free agent whom was grabbed by Dallas at 45 m over 3 years which they decided was too expensive too match. They also got rid of one first and one second round draft pick so the Lakers would take Jeremy Lin to clear additional cap space necessary to sign Bosh. Guess what? Bosh signed with Miami... Best laid plans and they gave up quite a bit in Houston for nothing in return...
Truth is if you don't believe in the management then you should move on to another stock... And if you are shorting then just say so and support your position with reasoned discussion and we will all respect that... What is difficult to take is the brash statements without any support/evidence to back them up... At least if you have none then say so... I, as do most others on this board, tell you when we are just guessing...
If you want a guess about where the stock will be with no partner... My best guess at this point with what I know will depend on how it affects the timing and scope of the launch and what if any dilution would be required...
So if we say 10.00 pps is a fair price post FDA approval with current label and they need to raise let's say 200m for launch (am making this figure up) that would require if done thru the two ATM's (not sure of limits on number of shares they can issue from them) another 20m shares or about 5% of the approximately 389m shares currently outstanding. So at $10pps the price might come down to say $9.50 based on a straight 5% reduction in value but we both know this is not how it works. So I would say it goes down to $8.75 on dilution alone and then down to $7.50 pending delays in launch, downsizing of potential revenue numbers and other issues... The real answer is I don't know... but at least i am willing to create a rationale for my guess which is an answer to your question... Ergo I should not have to do your homework or hypothesizing for you.
If you would simply say here's what could happen and this is why I am willing to bet short on mnkd then you would have a lot more respect on this board. Then at least we could respond with rational answers to you and engage in a debate with some form of merit and civility... Otherwise you are just a basher...
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Post by alcc on Jul 16, 2014 13:19:34 GMT -5
What will the share price be if management fails to deliver a partner? I know it is hard but can you focus on that question? I love it when people start giving investment advice on a message board. Or suggesting they know what someone should or shouldn't do based on a very valid question. Now focus....give me your best reply to the question. I know you can do it. ""What will the share price be in October if management fails to deliver a partner?"" Valid question? No -- wrong question. Post approval and with a huge and growing market, a partner will be found. It's always and only a matter of terms/price. I am focussed. And that's my best rely to a wrong question.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 14:36:11 GMT -5
WOW!
ROFLMAO!! Never mind.....
It is all good.
TO THE MOON!
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Post by jpg on Jul 16, 2014 14:45:54 GMT -5
Hi Purge,
You state: Time will tell if they have been misleading about anyone being interested or not. The best predictor of the future is the past.
I do agree with you that for many shareholders the constant promising of a partner by managment wears out trust but then again by that measure we should never have gotten FDA approval and we obviously did. History did not repeat itself there. We have never had FDA approval before so the past doesn't look exactly like the 'old past'... This is now therefore a 'new past'! If that makes any sense.
JPG
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Post by jpg on Jul 16, 2014 16:14:25 GMT -5
WOW! ROFLMAO!! Never mind..... It is all good. TO THE MOON! Hi Purge, I read the above chain and don't understand your response? Other posters seem to make logical and polite statements. You may not agree and obviously don't but I do not understand what would make your 'roll on the floor laughing...' and why do you say never mind? That type of response seems to be a deflection or a non response more then anything else. After reading the substantial and well thought out posting people took the time to write to you, your response seems to also be a bit less then kind. JPG
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 16:24:50 GMT -5
My initial comment was NOT even a serious question.
Only 7% of communication is actually what one says. My point to making my initial comment to this entire thread was everyone assumes there will be a partner.
One can't assume that.....that is all I was getting at.
Everything else I was just fooling around a little at everyone's comments suggesting I go short or sell or what I should or shouldn't do.
I am only playing the opposite side of the coin to the initial post on this thread. We can't assume there will be a partner.
That is my only point.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 16:29:40 GMT -5
We have approval, but we also have "minimal dilution."
Approval now vs approval before "minimal dilution" does not equal the same share price.
Does it?
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Post by mdcenter61 on Jul 16, 2014 16:49:55 GMT -5
My initial comment was NOT even a serious question.
Ok, we'll just leave it at that, thanks for your honesty.
Next quote "We have approval, but we also have "minimal dilution." Approval now vs approval before "minimal dilution" does not equal the same share price. Does it?"
I don't think anyone remotely ignores the dilution that occurred from the last CRL to now in their equations of potential PPS. It obviously is a factor. That being said, being a long suffering long at that point, our target consumer and approval in January 2011 was for Type 1; subsequently bringing Type 2 into the equation and including it in this approval more than offsets the dilution.
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