|
Post by mannmade on Jul 16, 2014 17:59:58 GMT -5
I vote that we close this thread. And if Purge wants to continue with this board perhaps he should at a minimum state his intentions upfront next time. If you just want to pose a question to take the opposite position w/o supporting it with facts then simply say so and this will prevent future misunderstandings...
Obviously many of us have a lot of time and money invested in this company (as you may well also Purge) so we are all looking forward to the day when this stock takes on a certain stability in it's trading patterns and does not seem so subjectively reactive to "forces" that that we (I at least) do not understand. Upon partnership and launch with revenues this all should take place... In the meantime, while this board has mostly longs... we are all dedicated to keeping this board from going the way of YMB (for example) which is why we ask that you declare your position and then offer support.
I think you got real answers to your question and should have what you are looking for... Now I for one am on to the next discussion...
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Jul 16, 2014 18:29:44 GMT -5
Maybe closing treads when there is a bit of "heat' is the way to manage or prevent conflict? Then again in this particular case or tread I don't see any malice or 'nasty stuff' being exchanged? Maybe I am jaded after reading the nastiness on YMB (where I never post and now rarely read) and other boards?
I personally like exchanging with shorts, disguised shorts or upset longs as long as people stay respectful and avoid ad Hominem. More and more I am finding their arguments vacuous or lacking in merit and I like that. I this particular tread nothing Purge said was wrong. Just difference in interpretation of the same timelines and information. I suspect the 'edge' comes or probably comes from how well you did with the dilution? Some were hurt by it while other profited greatly. When we understand this baseline many of the opinions make a lot more sense.
JPG
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Jul 16, 2014 18:45:07 GMT -5
jpg I can live with what i think you are saying. Was just offering my opinion as this subject seems a bit worn out... Also I do think people should declare where they stand but that is just my opinion. I do not care if someone is short as long as they play by the rules and offer support for their positions as I may learn something or see it considered in a way I had not previously.
My issue with Purge is what seems to me (my opinion) his joy in playing with people he does not yet know very well which makes it that much more confusing to understand his point... I don't mind games but this board to me is more for our common interests pro and con as investors for mnkd to share knowledge and opinions (supported by fact or at least reasonable logic) If people want to play games then there are plenty of other boards. My opinion only, nothing personal to anyone...
|
|
|
Post by liane on Jul 16, 2014 19:20:00 GMT -5
I'm not going to lock the thread at this time, but I would remind everyone to stick to the civil tone we try to maintain on this board.
Thank You!
|
|
|
Post by BD on Jul 16, 2014 19:20:52 GMT -5
Maybe closing treads when there is a bit of "heat' is the way to manage or prevent conflict? Then again in this particular case or tread I don't see any malice or 'nasty stuff' being exchanged? Maybe I am jaded after reading the nastiness on YMB (where I never post and now rarely read) and other boards? I personally like exchanging with shorts, disguised shorts or upset longs as long as people stay respectful and avoid ad Hominem. More and more I am finding their arguments vacuous or lacking in merit and I like that. I this particular tread nothing Purge said was wrong. Just difference in interpretation of the same timelines and information. I suspect the 'edge' comes or probably comes from how well you did with the dilution? Some were hurt by it while other profited greatly. When we understand this baseline many of the opinions make a lot more sense. JPG Each mod has his/her own "line" a thread has to cross before we start thinking about locking it. These lines are a bit difficult to quantify, but a good rule of thumb we seem to agree on is that if the moderation effort required to keep the peace outweighs the social redeeming value of the thread, we'll lock it...out of mercy to ourselves and the entire board membership. This thread is nowhere near that line, nor do I expect it to get there, thank goodness. Kudos to everyone for keeping a calm head and discussing facts rather than employing any of the other YMB-style tactics we're all so relieved to be essentially buffered from.
|
|
|
Post by BD on Jul 16, 2014 19:22:04 GMT -5
liane and I were both typing those last two posts at the same time. One reason we work so well together is that, apparently, we read each other's minds.
|
|
|
Post by savzak on Jul 16, 2014 19:23:05 GMT -5
My opinion...the patrons of this board are few enough and smart enough to self monitor. If anyone here doesn't find a counter position worthy of discussion, all they have to do is ignore it. Thankfully, this board is not frequented by many oblivious posters anxious to argue against foolish or illogical positions. Accordingly, worthy arguments will be fully explored and debated. Unworthy arguments will (ultimately and relatively quickly) be ignored.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 20:08:45 GMT -5
My opinion...the patrons of this board are few enough and smart enough to self monitor. If anyone here doesn't find a counter position worthy of discussion, all they have to do is ignore it. Thankfully, this board is not frequented by many oblivious posters anxious to argue against foolish or illogical positions. Accordingly, worthy arguments will be fully explored and debated. Unworthy arguments will (ultimately and relatively quickly) be ignored. This is comical. That was all my initial post to this thread was. It was a rhetorical question. I didn't expect serious replies about where the SP would be in october if we don't have a partner. I was only playing devils advocate. I have never seen so many panties bunched up over a rhetorical question. Everyone seems to think it is a given we will get a partner. I do NOT. Am I the only one that really believes there is the possibility we won't find a partner?
|
|
|
Post by brentie on Jul 16, 2014 20:23:21 GMT -5
My initial comment was NOT even a serious question.
Ok, we'll just leave it at that, thanks for your honesty.
Next quote "We have approval, but we also have "minimal dilution." Approval now vs approval before "minimal dilution" does not equal the same share price. Does it?"
I don't think anyone remotely ignores the dilution that occurred from the last CRL to now in their equations of potential PPS. It obviously is a factor. That being said, being a long suffering long at that point, our target consumer and approval in January 2011 was for Type 1; subsequently bringing Type 2 into the equation and including it in this approval more than offsets the dilution.
MD, I think that Al's major target consumer was always Type II's. On this video from 2005 he says it can be used for Type I's but it's major impact will be on Type II's. He starts talking about MannKind around the 17 minute mark. www.youtube.com/watch?v=HML_bmwlHrkIf you look at the earlier trials you'll see that quite a few were for Type II's, even one(#19) from 2006 where Afrezza was used with Metformin. The latest Type II trial however did definitely helped expand Afrezza's market. www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=mannkind&pg=1&show_flds=YAbout MannKind Corporation MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutic products for patients with diseases such as diabetes and cancer. Its diabetes pipeline includes AFREZZA(TM) and MKC253. MKC253 is currently in phase 1 clinical trials. In March 2009, MannKind submitted a NDA to the FDA requesting approval of AFREZZA for the treatment of adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes for the control of hyperglycemia.
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Jul 16, 2014 20:31:43 GMT -5
Purge, most shorts definitely believe that MNKD will not be able to find a partner. Now, if I believed that, I would sell all my shares, taking a substantial profit and move on. BTW, it looks like that stupid Vanguard group added shares again during the last quarter. One thing is certain, Vanguard, Fidelity, and Blackrock, along with a lot of retail investors have been making a ton of money, buying and holding MNKD during the past 2 years.
|
|
|
Post by BD on Jul 16, 2014 20:44:58 GMT -5
This is comical. That was all my initial post to this thread was. It was a rhetorical question. I didn't expect serious replies about where the SP would be in october if we don't have a partner. I was only playing devils advocate. I have never seen so many panties bunched up over a rhetorical question. Everyone seems to think it is a given we will get a partner. I do NOT. Am I the only one that really believes there is the possibility we won't find a partner? It wasn't your "initial post to this thread" that caused the panty bunching, it was your second. I still haven't seen an answer to my question about how you've computed the odds are against attaining a partnership. To be honest, I'm not sure at this point if I even really care about your answer...you've exhibited a lack of sensitivity to the tone and cadence of the board. Others have shown a hell of a lot more patience with you than I would. Anyway, at least we've been able to provide you with some comic relief...
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Jul 16, 2014 21:01:01 GMT -5
Hi Purge,
You asked: Am I the only one that really believes there is the possibility we won't find a partner?
It will assume this is not a rhetorical question. If it is sorry for answering.
There is obviously a possibility they don't find a partner as there was a possibility they would not get FDA approval. I stuck through FDA approval confident (till I saw the FDA documents) that Afrezza would get approved and am very happy I did. To me that was a much bigger risk (PPS adjusted for 4 or 5 or whatever it did pre adcom) then we are now exposed to. I did not sell because I had confidence I knew what the Adcom participants thought and would do. I was obviously right on that one. I also feel I understand (or hope I do) what BP CEOs are thinking. I think one, 2 or maybe more will blink and cough up the deal A. Mann/ Greenhill want. You don't get to be a billionaire selling IP companies you created (from scratch) on the cheap. To use your analogy of the best predictor of the future is the past. A. Mann has been an extrordinairy IP creator and businessman so far. Mannkind and A. Mann have done everything they said they would do so far. Granted not as quickly and efficiently as some would have hoped but this is biotech (Show me one better run biotech and I sill show you 50 not so 'better)'. I am betting on management and A. Mann to do what is right for us, them and patients. I am investing thinking of management as having a proven track record of excellence and legendary vison. The partnership, to me is just one more milestone on a long list (but getting shorter) of milestones Mannkind needs to execute. As Spiro if I had a significant conviction we wouldn't get a good partner or partners (and I define that differently then many) I would sell now at a very substantial profit and probably buy back after the negative market reaction to the absence of a partner.
JPG
|
|
|
Post by alcc on Jul 16, 2014 21:16:31 GMT -5
ROFLMAO!! Never mind..... I have no idea why you guys don't simply heed the guy's request. He said, never mind. Re partnership, the legit question is what quality and what terms. We shall see. Re Type II being Al's primary target, I should hope not. I asked the question before. Prandial use in Type II is de minimus under present practice (per JPG and my own research). It's all fine as a big untapped market, pending a paradigm shift. But not going to happen any time soon. Meantime, we better convert lots of RAAs to Afrezza.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2014 21:38:03 GMT -5
This is comical. That was all my initial post to this thread was. It was a rhetorical question. I didn't expect serious replies about where the SP would be in october if we don't have a partner. I was only playing devils advocate. I have never seen so many panties bunched up over a rhetorical question. Everyone seems to think it is a given we will get a partner. I do NOT. Am I the only one that really believes there is the possibility we won't find a partner? It wasn't your "initial post to this thread" that caused the panty bunching, it was your second. I still haven't seen an answer to my question about how you've computed the odds are against attaining a partnership. To be honest, I'm not sure at this point if I even really care about your answer...you've exhibited a lack of sensitivity to the tone and cadence of the board. Others have shown a hell of a lot more patience with you than I would. Anyway, at least we've been able to provide you with some comic relief... Some people are so sensitive. Do me a favor and delete or lock or whatever you can do to my profile. Please....I don't want you to think I am taking a tone.
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Jul 16, 2014 21:53:13 GMT -5
Hi. Alcc,
1. We both agree that type 2s don't take a lot of prandial insulin per capita. Because there are so many type 2 diabetics out there, the low ratio of type 2 diabetic using pramdial insulin still contributes a significant number of total users to the prandial insulin market (I don't know the ratio of type 1 vs type 2 using prandials off the top of my head and am to lazy to look it up). 2. Why do physicians put type 2s on prandial insulin if it is such a pain for everyone imvolved and especially not wanted by patients? Because at a certain point there are no other alternatives that work. 3. For every one type 2 patient I see taking a traditional prandial insulin I would say there are easily 10 who should be on a prandial but are not for multiple reasons we have discussed before. If Afrezza just captures 10% of that group (should be on a pranial but isn't) alone we are talking of as many sales of Afrezza as there are sales of sc prandials to type 2 diabetics. That is not chump change...
Add up: A. Those type 1 and 2s who are on a prandial and will stay on a prandial but will want to try out Afrezza for 'once in a while when I go to a movie or out with some friends or am really rushed etc..'. B. Those on a prandial who will switch completely (many will start off a being from the above A group) C. Those 'end of the line type 2s who are on a basal but really need a basal and a prandial but don't do it (the group I discussed above in # 3) D. Afrezza prescribed by MDs who will skip basals (for some of the reasons we have partially discussed on this board) and go directly to Afrezza without even taking into consideration the 'paradigm shift' we are alluding to.
Those are a lot of patients....
JPG
|
|