Post partnership pps

[biotec]

Any guess what a good partnership deal will do for the share price? This is what everyone is waiting for. I dont see a double but Ill say $16 pps, It will be interesting to see how the shorts will act on good or great partnership terms.

[4allthemarbles]

Biotech,
I have been trying to figure this out for a few weeks. Originally, I thought $15.00. A $4 bump from approval ($11 ish) is not crazy. However, I was wrong about approval being priced in. I would have no problem with $16, but I do expect a slight lul until Afrezza orders start rolling in next year.

To be honest, I don't have a real clear view, so my guess is anywhere between $14 to $16.

[4allthemarbles]

Does anyone want to take a stab at this?

[vissertrades]

$1.98 based on the way this stock trades. Seriously, 5-6B MC so you're in-line.

[savzak]

I can't guess what we will trade at after the deal because I have no information as to what the deal will actually look like or what the PPS will be the day before the deal is announced. But just for fun...

I do think that the big money players are accumulating here, relying on the assumption that no deal will be announced until at least early to mid August. If they're right about that time frame, I think they'll run the PPS up before hand. If so, I expect there will be many seemingly legitimately sourced rumors of the deal which will fuel the fire.

If I'm right about all of that, what will happen after the announcement depends to a large extent on the PPS at that time and the nature of the deal. Obviously, the higher the PPS, the greater the likelihood that the players will "sell the news" unless the deal is obviously top flight.

My uneducated guess without any information as to the terms of the deal would be:

1. If we're $12 or under on the day of the announcement, we'll trend up.
2. If we're $14 or over on the day of the announcement, we'll trend down.
3. If we're between $12 and $14 on the day of the announcement, trading will depend on how the market perceives the deal terms.

[nemzter]

No partnership, but a BUYOUT is coming! LOL

With the way the PPS has been trending post approval, I'd be surprised if we go to $15 post partnership.

All depends on the terms of the deal, and I hope Greenhill is worth their weight in gold. Only time will tell...

[bradleysbest]

$15 upon partnership. Hope for higher PPS but......

[notamnkdmillionaire]

It all depends on who the partner is and how the partnership is structured. Great partner and great terms, I would think, will help lift the PPS to the mid to high teens. A great/good partner and good/so so deal won't move the stock that much and might knock it down a little. A not so great partner and so so deal will obviously hurt the stock and clip the PPS significantly as the stock is over valued here, imho.

[mannmade]

The net/net for me I think post partnership we settle in at $12 to $13 after all of the shenanigans take place and the dust settles... And that is assuming it is a decent partner with a decent deal, meaning 250m cash upfront and good royalty payments or licensing deal. Doubt there will be a buyout. This is just a guess on my part.

Now if it is a great partner and a great deal which is undeniable then could be bit higher.  Also if the partner is one of the truly global giants in Pharma and they come out with a press release that is unequivocal in their support and predictions for the future of Afrezza such as becoming the new standard of care and they talk of a far reaching marketing plan which they intend to fully support with x millions of dollars... than I think we can get somewhere over $15pps.

I am being conservative as would have expected post approval from FDA, with a decent label which we received, the price would be $12 to $13 or at least $11 to $12. Not the $9.87 it closed at today three weeks after approval from the FDA.

From what I have seen as we have all been witness too, is a merciless short/bear force that does not play in a transparent world, so after the partnership announcement, with so much money at stake, they will likely rip the deal apart regardless and then just move on to the next issue of adoption. And with what might actually be an admittedly slow roll-out of the product for a variety of reasons, revenues may take a year or so to generate enough support to see a share price increase which is both consistent and stable. Thus am tempering my expectations for any large rises in share price that suggest support for new trading levels of share price as opposed to orchestrated spikes for profit taking.

Having said all of the above I still believe in the science and that Mannkind Corporation imho is a 3 to 5 year hold. And the good news is that as I change my opinions of the share price short term I am also revising my investment strategy which is now geared less towards accumulation up front and more towards gradual accumulation of mnkd shares consistent with the dips caused by the shorts/bears.

GLTA!

[babaoriley]

mannmade writes: "From what I have seen as we have all been witness too, is a merciless short/bear force that does not play in a transparent world, so after the partnership announcement, with so much money at stake, they will likely rip the deal apart regardless and then just move on to the next issue of adoption. And with what might actually be an admittedly slow roll-out of the product for a variety of reasons, revenues may take a year or so to generate enough support to see a share price increase which is both consistent and stable. Thus am tempering my expectations for any large rises in share price that reelect new trading levels of support as opposed to orchestrated spikes for profit taking."

From my perspective, I could not possibly have said it any clearer or better than mannmade did in the above quote.

The shorts are winning a lot of battles. They did lose to a major offensive by the bulls in taking the stock from the $6 range into the $10 range we now occupy, but even there, they had their moment in the sun by scaring the price down to the $8's on the afternoon of approval. The shorts are a formidable force; do not underestimate their ability to make our market lives quite frustrating. We have often thought that they were trapped, but they find a way.  It would be foolish to think they won't find a way upon a partnership announcement.

I sure would like to see an announcement as to our partner(s) by the end of August, I can't get a feel if I'm being too optimistic there, but perhaps a bit.

Janet Yellen delivered a bow shot to all small biotechs today, along with social media stocks.  Oh well, the effects shouldn't be too long lasting, as investors seem to have short, not to mention selective, memories.

[ezrasfund]

I too have to agree with mannmade. IMO the market will continue to be very begrudging with MNKD and valuations will reflect that stinginess and the refusal of the short interest to capitulate. In fact I think a valuation of $4B is reasonable at this point although not very generous. Some would consider that turning $2B into $4B is not a great feat (especially if the first $1B was became $500M while the next $1B became $3.5B). Mann may just double down again in the partnership, as the "show me" nature of negotiations still must hinge on whether Afrezza can really sell $Billions for years to come and whether the technosphere platform becomes a launching pad for a whole new class of drugs. Which is why I think Al favors Sanofi and Medtronic.

I also look at insider sales by the CFO, the only one to sell at specific price levels and not dates it seems, who sold some shares at $10 and $11. Looking back at the chart it seems that the catalyst for the move from $6.50 to $10 was the Annual Meeting. I don't think we have heard from Al since.

I am holding as many shares and calls as ever because a big measure of uncertainty has been removed with the FDA decision. And I am hoping to gradually trim my position as the price rises with partnership and successful commercialization. But I think the road will rise up from here slowly without a big price spike. I am just keeping my expectations low at this point, based on the price history.

As an example of the hopes of the short interest, imagine if you were short DNDN and had deep enough pockets to keep averaging up/doubling down all the way to $50.

[Deleted]

I have a better question.

What will the market cap be if we don't get a partner?

[thekindaguyiyam]

Jul 16, 2014 9:50:27 GMT -5 purge said:

I have a better question.

What will the market cap be if we don't get a partner?

a better question would be "what will happen to the planet when it stops spinning on it's axis?"

[vissertrades]

Could Pop-Rocks be formulated with Tecnosphere for added inhalation fun?

[Deleted]

So far management has not been accurate with any of their estimates about a partnership.

Time will tell if they have been misleading about anyone being interested or not.  The best predictor of the future is the past.  So far management has failed to secure a partnership.


The odds are against them getting a partner and the odds are against them getting that partner in the time they estimated.

What happens to the share price when we get to 2.5 to 3 months out from the approval date?  What happens to the share price if we get into October without a partner?

Will Al give us some more "minimal dilution?"

You can dismiss these questions if you wish.  If you do dismiss these questions, you have more trust in management than I do at this point.

From my point of view management has to deliver or they lose credibility.  some may even accuse them of being misleading some make take it one step further.