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Post by nylefty on Sept 1, 2018 13:10:52 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary:
Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!
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Post by awesomo on Sept 1, 2018 15:59:14 GMT -5
Why exactly is that a "hit piece"? Because it's not extremely positive about the situation?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 2, 2018 1:35:00 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary: Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left."01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-Dendreon
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 5:54:16 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sportsrancho on Sept 2, 2018 5:54:16 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary: Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left."01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-Dendreon This is a very important post, I was in that stock also from $16 to $30 and then I got off because I realized it only extended life three months. But beyond that there’s a lot of BS going on here behind the scenes. False information in my opinion, people working against us. And people of course pretending to be other people. Here is a post from matese16.... “I have no doubt that the people on proboards are decent people as a whole. So are all the drivers on the road - all decent people right up until they get behind the wheel and then even grandma turns into a finger flipping leaded foot lane swerving maniac. Or, more to the way I view proboarders is akin to monty python and their group scenes were nobody can think for themselves and whatever insane theory is stated, the crowd picks it up and runs with it. Group think, herd mentality is a powerful force. But what happens when the herd is heading for a cliff? Well, I'll tell you. I grab a chair, popcorn, and a martini and watch the parade of idiots. THEY think I'm there to help them with their investment decisions which they state over and over. Meanwhile, all they are doing is marching to their financial cliff and, newsflash, nobody is there to "help them out" as they keep insisting. Put simply, I'm there to watch the live monty python show. Silly rabbits.
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 8:58:30 GMT -5
via mobile
logel likes this
Post by rossomalley on Sept 2, 2018 8:58:30 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary: Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left."01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-Dendreon[ I’m surprised that the current ARLZ bankruptcy wasn’t referenced since that sort of scenario is what is starting to worry me. Deerfield is their major creditor but Matt’s concern about BK costs turned out to be not a problem since Deerfield is ‘helping’ ARLZ through Chapter 11 with another loan and kindly being willing to buy their top asset at a fire sale price (I assume they’ve already got a deal to sell it to a competitor for a tidy profit). Furthermore, Uncle Deerfield is also digging deeper into its pockets to make sure things work out for poor ARLZ by loaning more money to a second pharma cimpany (curiously staffed by former ARLZ execs!) to acquire the rest of ARLZ’ portfolio of drugs/ip. Like MNKD, ARLZ had improving sales, just was not growing enough that they could raise capital easily to fund the needed runway. I’m sure there are many, many differences from our situation (and I would be very happy to hear about them!) but it seems possible to me that if Deerfield were to start playing hardball with MNKD they could force some kind of similar outcome. Short of Mike pulling that rabbit out of the hat, of course (which is the hope that keeps me holding my core here but just barely. On paper the MNKD situation looks really bad, and just to be sure I asked a family member who is a corporate bankruptcy lawyer and you don’t even want to know what she said).
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 9:47:58 GMT -5
Post by tomtabb on Sept 2, 2018 9:47:58 GMT -5
I looked up Aralez -- interesting story. Ended March with 44 million in cash. Revenues were climbing -- 34 million versus 6 million a year before -- that looked pretty hockey stick to me. Take out amortization charges and and change in fair value of contingent consideration and they were actually profitable. They had 274 million in long term debt, but I would have thought that could have been re-negotiated the way revenues were growing. I didn't have time to look for the full story -- any idea what pushed them over the edge?
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 11:54:09 GMT -5
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Post by mannmade on Sept 2, 2018 11:54:09 GMT -5
This is not my area of expertise... however as I see it, mnkd really only has 22m to Deerfield, another 15m to Union Bank? And the amphistar contract of about 14m a year. That’s really only $51m
I am obviously not counting the 90m mann foundation Debt as it is very likely going to stay friendly for a while longer.
So mnkd is not in the same financial situation.
Mike has to be able to show anyone who would get involved in financing the tecap that mnkd can get to break even and beyond in next 12 to 18 months that is the key in my opinion. If he can’t then I would start to be concernered about possible BK
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 12:10:20 GMT -5
via mobile
lennymnkd likes this
Post by sportsrancho on Sept 2, 2018 12:10:20 GMT -5
And let’s hope part of the plan inside that 1 to 18 months is direct to consumer advertising.
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 16:14:24 GMT -5
Post by tomtabb on Sept 2, 2018 16:14:24 GMT -5
This is not my area of expertise... however as I see it, mnkd really only has 22m to Deerfield, another 15m to Union Bank? And the amphistar contract of about 14m a year. That’s really only $51m I am obviously not counting the 90m mann foundation Debt as it is very likely going to stay friendly for a while longer. So mnkd is not in the same financial situation. Mike has to be able to show anyone who would get involved in financing the tecap that mnkd can get to break even and beyond in next 12 to 18 months that is the key in my opinion. If he can’t then I would start to be concernered about possible BK I don't recall any debt to Union Bank -- where did you see that? In the last 10-Q, they said: "In addition to the Mann Group Loan Arrangement [about $72 million] described in Note 6, as of June 30, 2018, the Company outstanding borrowings consisted of has $18.7 million principal amount of the Senior Convertible Notes due 2021 bearing interest at 5.75% per annum and maturing on October 23, 2021, as well as $39.0 million principal amount of the Facility Financing Obligation, which is comprised of the following: $32.0 million principal amount of 2019 notes bearing interest at 9.75% per annum. Interest is payable in cash quarterly in arrears in the last business day of March, June, September and December of each year. As of June 30, 2018, the principal amount due and payable was as follows: $12.0 million in July 2018 (see Note 15, Subsequent Event), $15 million in July 2019, and $5.0 million in December 2019 (see Note 15 Subsequent Event); and $7.0 million principal amount of Tranche B notes bearing interest at 8.75% per annum. Interest is payable in cash quarterly in arrears on the last business day of March, June, September and December of each year. As of June 30, 2018, the principal amount due and payable was as follows: $5.0 million in May 2019 and $2.0 million in December 2019 (see Note 15, Subsequent Event)." So they appear to have owed Deerfield 18.7 plus 39 = 57.7 million plus the interest that is accruing which in the last 10Q was bout 4,566,000. They paid 7 million in July and 3 million was due last Friday. Has MNKD done anything else to change these numbers?
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 17:32:47 GMT -5
Post by mannmade on Sept 2, 2018 17:32:47 GMT -5
I did not recal it either until saw it postd on board somewhere before. That's why I put the question mark after it.
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SA
Sept 2, 2018 21:12:36 GMT -5
Post by nylefty on Sept 2, 2018 21:12:36 GMT -5
I did not recal it either until saw it postd on board somewhere before. That's why I put the question mark after it. If you use the search function on this board you'll see that there was no mention of Union Bank before your post.
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Post by mannmade on Sept 2, 2018 21:22:07 GMT -5
Then I was mistaken but do recall it being mentioned somewhere. So much the better then for what I was trying to say about BK not being an issue imho for the foreseeable future.
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Post by brotherm1 on Sept 3, 2018 8:38:37 GMT -5
Let’s hope we can get the facility financing obligation - the very big current liability - refinanced. As I see it, if we can do a good job of that, share price would be in a much better position for an equity raise.
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Post by sportsrancho on Sept 3, 2018 9:51:41 GMT -5
Let’s hope we can get the facility financing obligation - the very big current liability - refinanced. As I see it, if we can do a good job of that, share price would be in a much better position for an equity raise. Just what I was thinking a few hours ago, and on top of that then they could use the warrants. That could possibly give us a 16 month runway.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 3, 2018 16:06:59 GMT -5
Let’s hope we can get the facility financing obligation - the very big current liability - refinanced. As I see it, if we can do a good job of that, share price would be in a much better position for an equity raise. According to SO, he continually states/alludes that the building is permanently secured to Deerfield. Whenever someone brings up the idea of Mannkind restructuring their debt/obligations especially with respect to the building he states like he is the only one that knows it is secured via covenants to Deerfield. However, if Deerfield has a clause that Mannkind cannot refinance and restructure their debt and obligations like any other debtor I must have missed that somewhere. Can someone show me the language that ties Mannkind from paying off Deerfield with new financing? Does he not understand simple refinancing? Let's do this "his way" Borrower cannot get traditional financing for various reasons so they go to the non traditional financing lender and pay a higher rate with the idea of refinancing the less attractive terms at a future date. This happens every day in real estate, a borrower that borrows private or hard money to obtain a property at today's value instead of renting and losing out to appreciated values in the future. Anyone that did that when they had short sales or foreclosures on their credit after the financial crisis and took advantage of the market when prices were low have either already refinanced to traditional loans at lower rates or if they could not for some reason sold when the property had appreciated back to almost 100% of past value. Now let's talk about that "value". As SO and Matt like to point out ad nauseam (ad nau·se·am ad ˈnôzēəm/Submit adverb referring to something that has been done or repeated so often that it has become annoying or tiresome.) the value of the building at an auction or "liquidation value" would only fetch what the land and exterior shell of the building are worth on a less than comparable basis. SO goes on to say that he uses the "tax assessors" value (I sure wish I could buy real estate consistently at the "tax assessors value"). So the premise or guise under which this is stated is that the company is being liquidated as opposed to an ongoing business. However, looking at the ongoing business and what the enterprise value of the technosphere technology and the award winning plant bring to the table must be considered. Value is what is in the eyes of the beholder, the saying goes there is a buyer for anything, and what may construe value to one may not to many others. If you are in the camp that technosphere does not work or has value then yes you would have to look at just the building and land. The problem with that is, Technosphere has been validated with one drug that has been already approved and one that is moving into a phase 3 trial. So it obviously has value as a viable technology. What is that value? Guess we will be finding out at some point. Oh btw, the constant "It's been on the market for 4yrs." statement is getting a bit old too as most familiar with the history of those 4yrs. have a pretty good understanding of what has taken place during that period of time. Nice try to twist it that way lol.
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