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SA
Sept 3, 2018 21:40:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by traderdennis on Sept 3, 2018 21:40:46 GMT -5
This is not my area of expertise... however as I see it, mnkd really only has 22m to Deerfield, another 15m to Union Bank? And the amphistar contract of about 14m a year. That’s really only $51m I am obviously not counting the 90m mann foundation Debt as it is very likely going to stay friendly for a while longer. So mnkd is not in the same financial situation. Mike has to be able to show anyone who would get involved in financing the tecap that mnkd can get to break even and beyond in next 12 to 18 months that is the key in my opinion. If he can’t then I would start to be concernered about possible BK [ Only owing 22 million to Deerfield is the problem. Deerfield no longer needs to play softball with Mnkd. They are now in a position to foreclose on the plant and they become whole again.
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Post by agedhippie on Sept 3, 2018 22:11:38 GMT -5
Ok - I am not a lawyer so here is the relevant section from the Milestone agreement so everyone can argue over it: 4. Covenants of the Company. So long as any Milestone Rights remain outstanding, the Company covenants and agrees that:[Assorted irrelevant clauses](d) No Transfer Without Consent; Security. The Company shall not transfer (whether by sale, assignment, merger, change of control, conveyance of rights, deed of trust, lien, license, sublicense, seizure or other transfer of any sort, voluntary or involuntary, including by operation of law) (each a “Transfer”)) any of its right, title or interest in or to the Product Intellectual Property or Product Regulatory Rights; provided, however, that the foregoing shall not prohibit (i) any Excluded Transaction (as defined in the Facility Agreement), (ii) any Transfer to a Wholly Owned Subsidiary (as defined in the Facility Agreement), and (iii) any other Transfer of the Product Intellectual Property or Product Regulatory Rights after the Notes are repaid in full or the holders of the Notes do not elect to exercise their rights to require repayment of the Notes under Section 2.3(d) of the Facility Agreement upon a Major Transaction Event; provided that the transferee agrees to be obligated together with Company for performance of the obligations to the Holders under this Agreement (each a “Permitted Transfer”). For so long as the Notes remain outstanding, the obligations of the Company under this Agreement and the Milestone Rights shall have benefit of the security interests granted pursuant to that certain Guaranty and Security Agreement, dated as of the date hereof, among the Company, the guarantors and grantors party thereto from time to time, and the secured parties thereto. In the event that the Company makes a Transfer which is not a Permitted Transfer, all Milestone Triggering Events shall be deemed to have occurred and all corresponding Milestone Payments shall be immediately due and payable in full.As I read it that means that: - until $1.5 billion in Afrezza sales these terms are binding on Mannkind
- the company cannot sell off Afrezza, cannot merge, and cannot have a change of control without paying the remainder of the milestones
- the security for the milestones match the security for the tranches (ie. everything)
That last one is the one I am not sure about. I think it means that the milestones are secured against Mannkind's assets at the same rank as the tranches, but I am not a lawyer. On the other hand I am fairly convinced that the Afrezza IP cannot be used as security since that it bound up here which makes sense since it is the asset on which this agreement is based. Edit: scratch that. After a quick look at the 8K for the Deerfield loan agreement it seems that the milestones forms part of that agreement so I do now think it is covered by the same security agreement. Again I am not a lawyer. It gives rise to the queston of why would Mannkind agree to this? I think the answer is that they never expected to be in the position they are in today, and if they were hitting those milestones then the security granted was purely academic since there would be no need for loans.
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Post by sportsrancho on Sept 4, 2018 5:21:25 GMT -5
Hey Matese16.........Hope you got your popcorn now, make sure and have a few martinis with it!
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Post by peppy on Sept 4, 2018 6:05:54 GMT -5
Spenser calling all his friends telling them to cover?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 6:18:00 GMT -5
Another predictable hit piece by SO. Here's his summary: Investors should know that if MannKind used cash to pay Deerfield the $3 million, there is no filing necessary. If the company used shares, the latest we could see an 8-K filing is Thursday of next week. Absent the company announcing something, investors will find themselves going into a holiday weekend in the dark, and may not know the status of anything until next Thursday. These dynamics put a distinct advantage in the hands of speculative traders. I anticipate that the company will be able to buy itself a little bit of time, but it is certainly not a comfortable situation for investors. Stay Tuned!A couple of quotes/comments from the article: Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "It is more like a few weeks of cash. If Deerfield did not agree to take shares and Spencer's other numbers are correct (and generally he is quite accurate) the company is down to around $7-8 million with a weekly burn rate of $2 million. I seriously doubt they paid DF in cash because if they need time to deal with creditors then they need every penny of available cash to tide them over. No doubt the board has taken legal advice on their options and the lawyers would have advised them to conserve cash no matter which creditor might be upset. The challenge to raising money at this time is that the trading volume has been declining, and PIPE investors like to see lots of liquidity in a stock. There are not a lot of viable options left."01 Sep 2018, 09:45 AM Reply " Matt_PK Comments440 | + Follow "Dendreon was a much different situation that I know well because I was engaged as an expert for part of the proceedings so I remember it all very well. The big difference is that DNDN had substantial sales, not enough to cover their expenses but a run rate of over $300 million, had a positive gross margin, and $120 million in cash when they filed. While they were still losing money, DNDN was down to burning about $10 million a quarter, but bankruptcy costs money, a lot of money, and DNDN went through almost all of the cash in the eight months after they filed and shareholders recovered nothing at all. MNKD does not have the cash they need to pull off a Chapter 11 reorganization because they will run out of cash long before they can put a reorg plan on the table. Unless they have quietly negotiated a prepackaged plan with Deerfield, Amphastar, Mann Group, and the other major creditors, they will not have the room to maneuver in the courtroom if it is a contested case. Like you said, at this point any rabbit from any hat will do." If you knew the Dendreon situation well, and engaged as an expert, as well as regarding their sales then you would also know how much each treatment cost and what their coverage was and how the urologists were re-imbursed. While both companies share underwhelming sales that is about the only thing they have in common and the potential for Afrezza is in a whole different class than Provenge was. Actually if you really want to look at the difference, Provenge was the pioneer in becoming the first FDA approved immunotherapy treatment for cancer (prostrate), and unfortunately it only was shown to extend life on average of an additional 3 mos. so the cost and benefit was a huge factor in their sales and coverage along with the cause for poor sales. The cost/benefit for treating both T1/T2 PWD regarding the results being shown with of quickly reducing HbA1c and reduced risk of hypo incidents is the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Provenge's efficacy/benefit. There are two major reasons why Dendreon failed as a company: 1. Dendreon's drug, Provenge only provided a limited benefit to prostate cancer patients, something like another 3 months of survival. Another drug was launched around the same time called Zytiga added 5.2 months, so Provenge certainly wasn't the only option. 2. Dendreon's drug required urologists to buy the drug at a cost of $90K and then wait for insurance to reimburse them. Urologists don't typically do this, so they hesitated to use it. Zytiga is just a pill, so urologists were much more comfortable just writing a prescription rather than risking $100K per patient. Sources: www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/08/04/dendreons-scientific-breakthrough-fails-to-sell/#6d73ee993c43www.quora.com/What-are-the-major-reasons-behind-the-fall-of-DendreonSomeone please tell Mr "Ham-n-egger" who "develops property in the region", here is your remedial lesson: that you don't value commercial property just on brick and mortar, you get a cap rate and gross multiplier on rents, NOI (net operating income), this is what commercial appraisers use when appraising a commercial property. Here, let me help you and your buddy Matt, www.thebalancesmb.com/calculating-property-value-with-capitalization-rate-2866800 Having said that, what do you suppose the value of building just went to today with the collaborative agreement signed by United Therapeutics....hahaha....btw, what's a ham-n-egger, you are a funny one SO Spencer Osborne, Contributor Comments14813 | + Follow Author’s reply » remedial lesson for good ole Joey The building has a value as a piuece of real estate. The assessed value gives you the baseline value. The equipment in the building only has value to someone that wants to make technospere products. Take the square footage of the building. Apply a reasonable multiple to the square footage. Look at comps in the area. WRONG>>>LOL, see above on how you value commercial property SPENCE!!!IT IS QUITE CLEAR YOU HAVE DONE NONE OF THIS. I develop property in the region. I know I have a far better grasp on values of buildings than some fly by night ham-n-egger LOL, seriously question that if that is how you value your commercial properties lololol who is the fly by nighter?NEW | 03 Sep 2018, 06:35 PM Reply1Like Spencer Osborne, Contributor Comments14813 | + Follow Author’s reply » Let's be clear. Deerfield is senior lender with the several covenants on debt AND milestones. Further, most assets of mannkind are already collateral for debt AND milestones. Readers should make themselves familiar with the contracts. Can mannkind refinance and take Deerfield out of the picture? Of course. Thank you for acknowledging that now, ya think? maybe they refinance with United Therapeutics The question is at what cost and what terms. Will Mann Group allow itself to be second if Deerfield is paid out? These are all considerations. The easiest path is to negotiate new debt with Deerfield. Question is how much debt can be done with net revenue being what it is? Most likely, any new debt will have converts. Problem is the number of authorized shares. NEW | 03 Sep 2018, 07:11 PM Reply
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Post by peppy on Sept 4, 2018 6:28:42 GMT -5
Heh, wait until Sanofi, novo, and Lilly cover.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 4, 2018 7:44:02 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Sept 4, 2018 8:55:52 GMT -5
SA the national inquirer. Catch and kill for Big Pharma. And they were willing to try to kill the world's best meal time insulin for big Pharma. Criminal.
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Post by ilovekauai on Sept 4, 2018 11:29:55 GMT -5
Sweet honey in the heart!
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SA
Sept 4, 2018 13:47:09 GMT -5
sky likes this
Post by awesomo on Sept 4, 2018 13:47:09 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Sept 4, 2018 13:48:47 GMT -5
Wow, a reunion of old friends in the comments section.
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Post by ilovekauai on Sept 4, 2018 14:05:22 GMT -5
They never quit C26, they never quit. Reminds me of that Monty Python skit where the knight gets chopped to pieces and still argues. Too funny!
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Post by hellodolly on Sept 4, 2018 14:54:46 GMT -5
They never quit C26, they never quit. Reminds me of that Monty Python skit where the knight gets chopped to pieces and still argues. Too funny! - He chopped your arm off! - -Nah...just a flesh wound.
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Post by peppy on Sept 4, 2018 20:55:35 GMT -5
hey Spencer, when you come here and read our threads, I hope we put you out of business.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 9, 2018 0:01:35 GMT -5
This group of physicians have over 7500 followers on SA and have a subscription service, I mention this because the below article highlighted the recent partnership and UTHR confidence relative to MNKD, typically this research entity follows the oncology sector so I found it interesting they made a point about PAH and the deal. For those of us that have been following MNKD's story, there is really nothing new but for the 7500 followers I'm sure it found some "new eyes" seekingalpha.com/article/4205023-daily-scoop-recro-proceeds-mannkind-zooms-aduros-publication
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