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Post by sayhey24 on Sept 10, 2018 19:39:44 GMT -5
I don't know if it means anything but in recent SA articles Rising Skeptic seems to have gone silent.
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Post by mytakeonit on Sept 10, 2018 19:43:55 GMT -5
Maybe he is choking ... since he has to eat his words.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 10, 2018 19:47:26 GMT -5
I don't know if it means anything but in recent SA articles Rising Skeptic seems to have gone silent. No he just changed his handle to Sinking Ship 😉
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SA
Sept 10, 2018 20:46:57 GMT -5
via mobile
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Post by sportsrancho on Sept 10, 2018 20:46:57 GMT -5
I don't know if it means anything but in recent SA articles Rising Skeptic seems to have gone silent. I know!!! To funny. It means something to me:-) He actually disappeared right after Spencer mentioned that perhaps MNKD could get a larger loan from Deerfield or whoever. That is if the mann group would be willing to stay second fiddle. And that was before the United therapeutics deal came out. Don’t remember seeing him post after that but he could have.
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SA
Sept 10, 2018 20:56:13 GMT -5
Post by mnkdfann on Sept 10, 2018 20:56:13 GMT -5
He actually last posted on Friday. seekingalpha.com/user/48690251/commentsIt may seem he went quiet, but if you look at his history you'll see there are frequently gaps of several days between his posts. Then he goes crazy with many posts within 24 hours. So I doubt he has gone silent, more likely he is on one of his seemingly regular posting breaks.
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Post by peppy on Sept 11, 2018 7:56:43 GMT -5
Why MannKind Warrants Are Important seekingalpha.com/article/4205501-mannkind-warrants-importantSummary [The body of this post has been removed. ProBoard member are not permitted to reprint Spencer Osborne articles from SeekingAlpha due to copyright restrictions. Please see Board Rule 6.1.1 for additional information. Thank you! MnHoldem]=========================================================================================== I never go to seeking alpha, I thought I would check to see what is going. Things have changed.
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Post by akemp3000 on Sept 11, 2018 8:36:03 GMT -5
As usual SO and others have a narrow view and only model looking backwards. They model based on what is known with little to no consideration for other possible events. For this reason, forecasts a month ago were dire with significant dilution eminent. Then the United Therapeutics deal came through which crashed their models. For obvious reasons, we're not supposed to know what Mike has up his sleeve but he has certainly created an ever increasing pipeline with many possibilities. Other TS applications could be announced. Milestone payments might come in from UT, RLS, Brazil, India or others from the past. A sizable international order might come in Q1 from Brazil. The long awaited partnership to market Afrezza in the U.S. could be announced. Clearly, no one can model the unknown but it should not be ignored. It should be discussed as it often renders forecast models useless especially with regard to MNKD. Thankfully, Mike Castagna is smarter than the so-called analysts and usually comes through with a nice surprise or two. Maybe next we'll see rising scripts, advancements with juvenile, or who knows what else. IMO, the bottom line is to bet on Mike succeeding, not on analyst forecasting.
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Post by peppy on Sept 11, 2018 8:43:43 GMT -5
As usual SO and others have a narrow view and only model looking backwards. They model based on what is known with little to no consideration for other possible events. For this reason, forecasts a month ago were dire with significant dilution eminent. Then the United Therapeutics deal came through which crashed their models. For obvious reasons, we're not supposed to know what Mike has up his sleeve but he has certainly created an ever increasing pipeline with many possibilities. Other TS applications could be announced. Milestone payments might come in from UT, RLS, Brazil, India or others from the past. A sizable international order might come in Q1 from Brazil. The long awaited partnership to market Afrezza in the U.S. could be announced. Clearly, no one can model the unknown but it should not be ignored. It should be discussed as it often renders forecast models useless especially with regard to MNKD. Thankfully, Mike Castagna is smarter than the so-called analysts and usually comes through with a nice surprise or two. Maybe next we'll see rising scripts, advancements with juvenile, or who knows what else. IMO, the bottom line is to bet on Mike succeeding, not on analyst forecasting. What gets under my substrate, it prior to this according to SA, afrezza the best meal time insulin there is, was being sold as a POS. Spencer was/is wrong. He was never honest with his readers why afrezza wasn't selling. I think he was/is part of the catch and kill that these publications are now known to be a part of. The national inquirer of investing. We used to call them the rag magazines. I have turned into such a witch.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2018 10:05:12 GMT -5
As usual SO and others have a narrow view and only model looking backwards. They model based on what is known with little to no consideration for other possible events. For this reason, forecasts a month ago were dire with significant dilution eminent. Then the United Therapeutics deal came through which crashed their models. For obvious reasons, we're not supposed to know what Mike has up his sleeve but he has certainly created an ever increasing pipeline with many possibilities. Other TS applications could be announced. Milestone payments might come in from UT, RLS, Brazil, India or others from the past. A sizable international order might come in Q1 from Brazil. The long awaited partnership to market Afrezza in the U.S. could be announced. Clearly, no one can model the unknown but it should not be ignored. It should be discussed as it often renders forecast models useless especially with regard to MNKD. Thankfully, Mike Castagna is smarter than the so-called analysts and usually comes through with a nice surprise or two. Maybe next we'll see rising scripts, advancements with juvenile, or who knows what else. IMO, the bottom line is to bet on Mike succeeding, not on analyst forecasting. Another thing Mike mentioned during I believe the Rodman presentation that forward 12 mos Afrezza sales are tracking around $45mm (could be a few higher or lower don't remember exact #) so cash burn from Afrezza marketing initiatives will decrease. Use of STAT info probably started this week. The company communicated the information to many physicians and reps pushing it hard now. Maybe some reinvigoration among the sales team with recent events. Stock price again undergoing artificial suppression today. Hopefully a few more deals over the next couple of months. Another $45mm or so in cash, and accelerating Afrezza sales would put a lot more upward pressure on SP.
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Post by agedhippie on Sept 11, 2018 10:15:30 GMT -5
As usual SO and others have a narrow view and only model looking backwards. They model based on what is known with little to no consideration for other possible events. For this reason, forecasts a month ago were dire with significant dilution eminent. Then the United Therapeutics deal came through which crashed their models. For obvious reasons, we're not supposed to know what Mike has up his sleeve but he has certainly created an ever increasing pipeline with many possibilities. Other TS applications could be announced. Milestone payments might come in from UT, RLS, Brazil, India or others from the past. A sizable international order might come in Q1 from Brazil. The long awaited partnership to market Afrezza in the U.S. could be announced. Clearly, no one can model the unknown but it should not be ignored. It should be discussed as it often renders forecast models useless especially with regard to MNKD. Thankfully, Mike Castagna is smarter than the so-called analysts and usually comes through with a nice surprise or two. Maybe next we'll see rising scripts, advancements with juvenile, or who knows what else. IMO, the bottom line is to bet on Mike succeeding, not on analyst forecasting. The basis of modelling is that you take what you know for sure and then build on that. Right now you know the cash position, the burn rate, the revenue growth rate, and what debt is falling due and can project that forwards. Then it gets to the part you are talking about, the maybes. First the high probability events; Brazil in Q1, India in H2, UT in Q1 and Q2 (upfront, and milestone). These are very likely to happen so add them in, the only question is the value for Brazil and India (I think both will be low. For Brazil because BIOMM don't have much money, India because they will want to see how it goes). Now it's the possibles. The warrants will get left until just before expiry because that's what you do with warrants (full disclosure - I trade SPAC warrants). Since these are professional investors they will short against the warrants to lock in the gain, Deerfield probably do the same with their $1.80 conversion rights, so the price needs to survive that combined shorting - I reckon it probably does so expect the warrant money late Q1, early Q2 (we will be able to see which from the Q1 10Q). I also think in Q2 or Q3 there may be another $10M upfront payment from UT for a second drug. Everything else is a low probability event in my mind and I would assign minimal value to it. Will this be 100% correct? No, but it should be accurate enough to get a feel of where the business may be going and that's what modelling is all about. You get a range in which you think things will probably fall. If you don't do this sort of exercise then you really should unless you intend to hold regardless in which case why even read SA since it would have to be an article of faith that it is wrong (LFD, and the lunatic fringe aside).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2018 11:13:06 GMT -5
As usual SO and others have a narrow view and only model looking backwards. They model based on what is known with little to no consideration for other possible events. For this reason, forecasts a month ago were dire with significant dilution eminent. Then the United Therapeutics deal came through which crashed their models. For obvious reasons, we're not supposed to know what Mike has up his sleeve but he has certainly created an ever increasing pipeline with many possibilities. Other TS applications could be announced. Milestone payments might come in from UT, RLS, Brazil, India or others from the past. A sizable international order might come in Q1 from Brazil. The long awaited partnership to market Afrezza in the U.S. could be announced. Clearly, no one can model the unknown but it should not be ignored. It should be discussed as it often renders forecast models useless especially with regard to MNKD. Thankfully, Mike Castagna is smarter than the so-called analysts and usually comes through with a nice surprise or two. Maybe next we'll see rising scripts, advancements with juvenile, or who knows what else. IMO, the bottom line is to bet on Mike succeeding, not on analyst forecasting. The basis of modelling is that you take what you know for sure and then build on that. Right now you know the cash position, the burn rate, the revenue growth rate, and what debt is falling due and can project that forwards. Then it gets to the part you are talking about, the maybes. First the high probability events; Brazil in Q1, India in H2, UT in Q1 and Q2 (upfront, and milestone). These are very likely to happen so add them in, the only question is the value for Brazil and India (I think both will be low. For Brazil because BIOMM don't have much money, India because they will want to see how it goes). Now it's the possibles. The warrants will get left until just before expiry because that's what you do with warrants (full disclosure - I trade SPAC warrants). Since these are professional investors they will short against the warrants to lock in the gain, Deerfield probably do the same with their $1.80 conversion rights, so the price needs to survive that combined shorting - I reckon it probably does so expect the warrant money late Q1, early Q2 (we will be able to see which from the Q1 10Q). I also think in Q2 or Q3 there may be another $10M upfront payment from UT for a second drug. Everything else is a low probability event in my mind and I would assign minimal value to it. Will this be 100% correct? No, but it should be accurate enough to get a feel of where the business may be going and that's what modelling is all about. You get a range in which you think things will probably fall. If you don't do this sort of exercise then you really should unless you intend to hold regardless in which case why even read SA since it would have to be an article of faith that it is wrong (LFD, and the lunatic fringe aside). So regarding the warrants, if warrant holders shorting, holder would want the spread in price to be as large as possible, correct? 14mm @ $2.38 exercisable between 10-11-18 and 4-10-19 so on this group of warrants, not much activity until late March / early April? Do you envision a point in time (when)where warrant holders drive up SP to max their gain? Why all the current pressure to suppress SP now other than to; make equity funding highly dilutive (I realize no need to issue equity currently) capture as much $$ as possible for short(s) looking to close out position sooner rather than later BK company Seems without all the effort to hold down SP, given recent good news and positive positioning for the future, it should be trading north of $3.25/share.
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SA
Sept 11, 2018 12:43:52 GMT -5
Post by awesomo on Sept 11, 2018 12:43:52 GMT -5
SO responded to akemp's post in his comments...
"As usual SO and others have a narrow view and only model looking backwards."
that is not at all the case. Actually my modeling is very forward looking based on what is most probable
"They model based on what is known with little to no consideration for other possible events."
Not correct. Perrsonally I consider many possible events and assign what is most probable to them. This is why my models have ranges.
" For this reason, forecasts a month ago were dire with significant dilution eminent. Then the United Therapeutics deal came through which crashed their models."
Actually, the financial models show the timeline for when an action needs to happen. If you would actually READ what is written, you would see this. The point in understanding and narrowing down the time of required action is to assist an investor in making a profitable trade. I state that a cash infusion can come from debt, dilution, or a deal. The most probable was debt or dilution. If a deal happened, it would be the best situation. The UTHR did not "blow up" my model. Not at all.
"For obvious reasons, we're not supposed to know what Mike has up his sleeve but he has certainly created an ever increasing pipeline with many possibilities."
Clearly management does not show all cards. The UTHR deal should have been much more rich than it was. The severe lack of MNKD leverage meant a deal that was not as good as it could have been. many months ago I was asked about what level of upfront money a TreT deal could bring. my answer was that they would get 1 or 2 quarters of cash. I was insulted to the moon for saying it. The reality was 2 quarters of cash.
" Other TS applications could be announced."
Indeed. But they need to have some backbone (research) behind them
"Milestone payments might come in from UT, RLS, Brazil, India or others from the past."
I model a milestone from UTHR in Q1. RLS is not really in a position to deliver any milestones. Brazil milestone? Read the contract. India milestone? Read the contract
"A sizable international order might come in Q1 from Brazil."
Sure, it could happen, but is it realistic? With a 1 year expiration, why would Biomm order a sizeable sum of Afrezza? I guess you should define what you call sizeable. I see sales as moving as slow as they are here.
"The long awaited partnership to market Afrezza in the U.S. could be announced."
Sure. It could. What probability do you assign. Have the courage to put up a probability for Q3, Q4, Q1, and Q2.
"Clearly, no one can model the unknown but it should not be ignored."
It is not ignored
" It should be discussed as it often renders forecast models useless especially with regard to MNKD."
I do discuss such things. Either you are not reading at all or have poor reading comprehension skills
" Thankfully, Mike Castagna is smarter than the so-called analysts and usually comes through with a nice surprise or two."
How do you know the unknown. Have you see the IQ of Mike or myself? I will say I have been far smarter at projecting Afrezza sales than Mike has.
" Maybe next we'll see rising scripts, advancements with juvenile, or who knows what else. IMO, the bottom line is to bet on Mike succeeding, not on analyst forecasting."
bet on what is probable is a better way to play.
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Post by peppy on Sept 11, 2018 12:53:15 GMT -5
SO is never wrong I see. right makes might.
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Post by ilovekauai on Sept 11, 2018 13:24:09 GMT -5
Try to pay no heed to SA. Those folks are only trying to pull it all down. It's obvious as the sky is blue. Live your life and be free from that negativity. SA means absolutely nothing to me. My investment is only money and win or lose, I really don't care because in the end you can't take it with you. It's how I live my life that matters to me, how I love & relate to those around me, and humanity at large. Be free. Cheers.
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SA
Sept 11, 2018 18:10:53 GMT -5
Post by traderdennis on Sept 11, 2018 18:10:53 GMT -5
The basis of modelling is that you take what you know for sure and then build on that. Right now you know the cash position, the burn rate, the revenue growth rate, and what debt is falling due and can project that forwards. Then it gets to the part you are talking about, the maybes. First the high probability events; Brazil in Q1, India in H2, UT in Q1 and Q2 (upfront, and milestone). These are very likely to happen so add them in, the only question is the value for Brazil and India (I think both will be low. For Brazil because BIOMM don't have much money, India because they will want to see how it goes). Now it's the possibles. The warrants will get left until just before expiry because that's what you do with warrants (full disclosure - I trade SPAC warrants). Since these are professional investors they will short against the warrants to lock in the gain, Deerfield probably do the same with their $1.80 conversion rights, so the price needs to survive that combined shorting - I reckon it probably does so expect the warrant money late Q1, early Q2 (we will be able to see which from the Q1 10Q). I also think in Q2 or Q3 there may be another $10M upfront payment from UT for a second drug. Everything else is a low probability event in my mind and I would assign minimal value to it. Will this be 100% correct? No, but it should be accurate enough to get a feel of where the business may be going and that's what modelling is all about. You get a range in which you think things will probably fall. If you don't do this sort of exercise then you really should unless you intend to hold regardless in which case why even read SA since it would have to be an article of faith that it is wrong (LFD, and the lunatic fringe aside). So regarding the warrants, if warrant holders shorting, holder would want the spread in price to be as large as possible, correct? 14mm @ $2.38 exercisable between 10-11-18 and 4-10-19 so on this group of warrants, not much activity until late March / early April? Do you envision a point in time (when)where warrant holders drive up SP to max their gain? Why all the current pressure to suppress SP now other than to; make equity funding highly dilutive (I realize no need to issue equity currently) capture as much $$ as possible for short(s) looking to close out position sooner rather than later BK company Seems without all the effort to hold down SP, given recent good news and positive positioning for the future, it should be trading north of $3.25/share. Do you envision a point in time (when)where warrant holders drive up SP to max their gain? I could see if the warrant holders March calls expire (eg, sell $3 calls, price closes at 3.00 or less) they could pump the stock up between March 18 and April 10 so they can sell for additional profit.
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