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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Oct 16, 2014 3:18:14 GMT -5
So what does this likely mean? If the stock were going up from short covering wouldn't the avail shares go up, not down dramatically. Is this perhaps and indication that it is new longs that are driving the price up and the dropping shares to short might actually be shorts digging themselves in deeper trying to keep a lid on this? Excellent question. Could someone with a lot of leant shares have strategically pulled them out of the lending pool? You mean, for example, someone that had lent out ... say 9 million shares to an institution to be shorted at $5 and as that institution covered over the last few days and returned the shares, this supposed someone would retire the shares from, as you said, the lending pool. That would be lovely, perhaps even a masterful mortal stroke to the shorts game. Don't know though... maybe to neat... to clean and convenient... to easy... after all this is Mannkind we are talking about. Pain endurance seems to be a must for longs holding this stock before they can reap any real profits. Oh well, hope you are right all the same. |
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Post by jpg on Oct 16, 2014 3:38:05 GMT -5
Excellent question. Could someone with a lot of leant shares have strategically pulled them out of the lending pool? You mean, for example, someone that had lent out ... say 9 million shares to an institution to be shorted at $5 and as that institution covered over the last few days and returned the shares, this supposed someone would retire the shares from, as you said, the lending pool. That would be lovely, perhaps even a masterful mortal stroke to the shorts game. Don't know though... maybe to neat... to clean and convenient... to easy... after all this is Mannkind we are talking about. Pain endurance seems to be a must for longs holding this stock before they can reap any real profits. Oh well, hope you are right all the same. I obviously don't know but do know there is as much money to be made on the way up as on the way down for those betting on volatility. Anyone who can short term manipulate a price down can just as easily short term manipulate a price up. It could be the same group doing both. They switch side, let others hold the long or short bag and repeat the process. Short term it works. Long term no. I also suspect a lot of MNKD investors don't usually invest in biotech and find this volatility surprising. Short term biotech and junior mines are the perfect target for shady traders. I am heavily biased obviously but medium to long term we will do well. JPG |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Oct 16, 2014 22:42:25 GMT -5
You mean, for example, someone that had lent out ... say 9 million shares to an institution to be shorted at $5 and as that institution covered over the last few days and returned the shares, this supposed someone would retire the shares from, as you said, the lending pool. That would be lovely, perhaps even a masterful mortal stroke to the shorts game. Don't know though... maybe to neat... to clean and convenient... to easy... after all this is Mannkind we are talking about. Pain endurance seems to be a must for longs holding this stock before they can reap any real profits. Oh well, hope you are right all the same. I obviously don't know but do know there is as much money to be made on the way up as on the way down for those betting on volatility. Anyone who can short term manipulate a price down can just as easily short term manipulate a price up. It could be the same group doing both. They switch side, let others hold the long or short bag and repeat the process. Short term it works. Long term no. I also suspect a lot of MNKD investors don't usually invest in biotech and find this volatility surprising. Short term biotech and junior mines are the perfect target for shady traders. I am heavily biased obviously but medium to long term we will do well. JPG JPG, I was just being a bit facetious. I thought you might have been pointing the finger in Al Mann's direction, but I see I misread your post. For what is worth, I seriously doubt Al has time to play games, regardless of his personal feelings for shorts. I fully agree with you that whoever is manipulating the stock price down could be playing it up when and if they see a chance. One thing is certain, when given the opportunity bankers and HF managers will squeeze stocks by all means possible, regardless of who gets caught in the middle. That you can count on. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 17, 2014 4:25:30 GMT -5
I obviously don't know but do know there is as much money to be made on the way up as on the way down for those betting on volatility. Anyone who can short term manipulate a price down can just as easily short term manipulate a price up. It could be the same group doing both. They switch side, let others hold the long or short bag and repeat the process. Short term it works. Long term no. I also suspect a lot of MNKD investors don't usually invest in biotech and find this volatility surprising. Short term biotech and junior mines are the perfect target for shady traders. I am heavily biased obviously but medium to long term we will do well. JPG JPG, I was just being a bit facetious. I thought you might have been pointing the finger in Al Mann's direction, but I see I misread your post. For what is worth, I seriously doubt Al has time to play games, regardless of his personal feelings for shorts. I fully agree with you that whoever is manipulating the stock price down could be playing it up when and if they see a chance. One thing is certain, when given the opportunity bankers and HF managers will squeeze stocks by all means possible, regardless of who gets caught in the middle. That you can count on. Small Biotech companies are the playground for Shorts and Hedge funds...retail investors are their toys. Being a long term investor helps negate the whipsaw price movements. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 4, 2014 14:28:27 GMT -5
Joey, I'd never heard of a tri-star top before... but apparently that's a case of the stars being misaligned. Seems like if the market keeps getting hammered, any stock specific support levels for MNKD may be kind of meaningless. Do you have any thoughts on what we might see with MNKD. Actually I'm looking to pick up more shares, so wondering how much of a dip we could get if the broader sell-off continues. I attached a link in that post last friday, it illustrates a candlestick formation of 3 "dojis" so it looks on the chart like 3 stars. It's a rare occurance to have it because essentially it's 3 days where the trading ends up near unchanged and shows quite a bit of indecision at the end of a prolonged trend usually followed by a reversal of that trend. Can be either at the top or the bottom of that trend signaling its end and the turning point for a reversal the other way.
In the S&P's case last week it looked to me like it was close enough for that pattern...thus the alert and position taken for the SEP bear spread along with the cheap weekly puts...as far as how it relates with MNKD, I still think there will be strong support from 8.08 to 8.20 if there continues to be downside pressure (which I continue to expect) with the overall market. I actually purchased some risk reversal options towards the close today selling the Jan 8 puts and buying the Jan 10 calls...the price is low enough for me without waiting for the absolute low in share price due to the nature of the fact that an announcement could come at any time and to wait for .15-.25 more to the downside would most likely not translate to much relative to risking not executing the trade today. I once heard a very successful investor/trader say I may not catch the exact bottoms and tops but if I'm close enough on either of them I'm a very happy person  ...as per what the Behavioral Economist alluded to in his excellent article when he advised the shorts that this may very well be close to the point they should consider covering before facing some substantial losses. Having said that, I believe there was a fair amount of the buys today which were shares being covered, jmho based on shares available to borrow ticking up....some may have been from forced long liquidation but I sense from the price action that was met with some covering. Depending how we close today (S&P)we could end up with the same type of situation as late july (23rd-25th). when I posted this last time we dropped almost a 90 pts in fairly short order on the index. Right now it is shaping up very similar and with the elections who knows maybe a gap down tomorrow which would also construe an "island top" I took out some cheap insurance via the SPY puts that expire in a couple of days. Maybe nothing happens but the risk reward is favorable enough with the VIX teetering in the 15 area. Take it fwiw JMHO |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 25, 2014 19:37:16 GMT -5
We opened the day with a drop down to the lows of friday (8.35-.36) which held nicely (as rak5555 also alluded to in the short interest post). Once that held we traded nicely higher to finish in the 8.64 area. I don't want to get too technical here but there is a technical overlay you can put on both the daily and weekly chart called the Ichimoku Cloud. Using the link below: stockcharts.com/h-sc/uiwill take you to stockcharts.com If you put in the symbol for MNKD and then below in the overlay section you will find 3 drop downs where it gives you the options for various overlays (my suggestion for the first two would be the simple moving average 50d, then the simple moving average 200d and the third drop down Ichimoku Cloud (not the full). The indicator drop downs below that I put in the RSI and MACD respectively. The daily chart today will show that we pierced the bottom of the cloud both friday and today with a "double bottom" potential setup and finishing back in the cloud. I encourage those of you interested to read up on the different meanings and how trading above, through, and below the cloud is interpreted...I use this as one of my trading/investing tools for entry and exit combined with other indicators, etc. What's interesting is the different perspectives you get when looking at the daily vs. the weekly and if you change the period on the drop down at the top to weekly it will adjust it and you will get where we are from a longer term perspective as we are still "above the cloud" as they say. I reposted this from back in July and in response to DBC's inquiry of where we are and what the support/resistance levels look like from here as my intended pun is it is somewhat "cloudy". The s/p sits squarely in the middle of the daily cloud and has yet to test the upper portion but is expected to in the next week to two weeks if we stay within this tight price range. If you look out the cloud has turned green which shows the possibility of continued support at these levels. That is how the daily chart looks. The weekly chart does not look as constructive yet. On a much longer term view, the 10 yr. chart shows a possible huge inverse H&S pattern. The first shoulder is in the 08/09 period then the head from '11-'13 and now possibly the last shoulder forming. Keep in mind that is not a given and instead we can be in the up leg off of a double bottom instead but it is worth keeping an eye on imo. The shorts are most definitely hoping for the former obviously and who knows, maybe it will coincide with what will be a scare either with the overall market or something else but to be honest I would definitely welcome that last buying opportunity. Near term we have stayed above last weeks low of 6.06 for now and more importantly the 50d currently sitting @ 5.81, overhead the upper bb sits at 6.48 area 9d ema (med bb is right where we've traded most recently) and longer term just above 7 sits the 200d. So currently it is somewhat directionless/neutral which goes in line with what most think as far as not much happening until Q1/Q2...however, with the continuing rise in SI and the always possible chance of some news on the formulary/insurance front, I would venture to say one shouldn't be too complacent. I still consider the short side to be "chasing" their bets rather than "doubling down" on them, but again that's jmo fwiw. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 2, 2014 15:55:42 GMT -5
I guess we're now solidly below the 50d. The IBB is setting new record highs today and MNKD is down. We got a drop rather than a rise on conclusion of Piper Jaffray conference today.
Putting a positive spin on this... Joey, how "good" do you think that "buying opportunity" you're looking for will get?
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Dec 5, 2014 8:18:23 GMT -5
I guess we're now solidly below the 50d. The IBB is setting new record highs today and MNKD is down. We got a drop rather than a rise on conclusion of Piper Jaffray conference today. Putting a positive spin on this... Joey, how "good" do you think that "buying opportunity" you're looking for will get? Sorry for the late response but I've been in Rip Van Winkle mode: The story of Rip Van Winkle is set in the years before and after the RAA Insulin Revolutionary War. In a pleasant village, at the foot of New York's Catskill Mountains, lives kindly Rip Van Winkle, a colonial British-American villager of Dutch ancestry. Van Winkle enjoys solitary activities in the wilderness, but he is also loved by all in town—especially the children to whom he tells stories and gives toys. However, he tends to shirk market noise, to the nagging shorts dismay, which has caused his home and business to continue in orderly fashion. One winter day, to escape the nagging shorts, Van Winkle wanders up the mountains with his dog, Wolf. Hearing his name called out, Rip sees a man wearing antiquated Dutch clothing; he is carrying a keg up the mountain and requires help. Together, they proceed to a hollow in which Rip discovers the source of thunderous noises. A group of ornately dressed, silent, bearded men who are playing nine-pins. Rip does not ask who they are or how they know his name. Instead, he begins to drink some of their moonshine and soon falls asleep. He awakes to discover shocking changes. His musket is rotting and rusty, his beard is a foot long, and his dog is nowhere to be found. Van Winkle returns to his village where he recognizes no one. He discovers that most longs have capitulated and that his close friends have also fallen prey in a war of attrition. He gets into trouble when he proclaims himself a loyal subject of Al Mann, not aware that the RAA Insulin Revolution has taken place. Lars Rebien Sørensen portrait in the inn has been replaced with one of Al Mann. Rip Van Winkle is also disturbed to find another man called Rip Van Winkle. It is his son, now grown up. Rip Van Winkle learns the men he met in the mountains are rumored to be the ghosts of Jason Karp's crew, which had vanished long ago. Rip learns he has been away from the village for at least twenty years. However, an old resident recognizes him and Rip's grown daughter takes him in. He resumes his usual idleness, and his strange tale is solemnly taken to heart by the Dutch settlers. Other hen-pecked longs wish they could have shares in Rip's good luck and had the luxury of sleeping through the hardships of the ongoing battles between the MNKD bears and bulls. Almost forgot to answer your question....while in Rip Van Winkle mode I would follow Coco's suggestion and put limit orders in thirds for the total amount desired to purchase as follows: 4.50, 4.10, 3.85. This would assume that you already hold most of the long position that you wish to carry but in case the large short contingent decides to go down with a fight, I could see the last shoulder of the large inverse H&S pattern I mentioned in previous post take hold after which it would open the door for new heights and unchartered territory. So to summarize, I continue to hold long and wake me up come next October with the possibility of being longer with a reduced avg. cost....all else is just noise to me at this point in the process....Zzzzzzz Zzzz Zzzz |
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Post by mnkd4ever on Dec 5, 2014 11:01:39 GMT -5
Well said Mr Pans
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Dec 18, 2014 15:24:34 GMT -5
Got a nudge today and woke up....sold puts...and going back to sleep for another 6 mos. or so as far as where we are in relation to some numbers...5.70 is where the 50d ma sits and currently on the daily chart we are sitting right underneath the bottom edge of "the cloud" on the weekly chart we are still way below it (the cloud) and today is just an up day in what is still considered a down trend...the high last week was 5.64 and unless we breach that by close tomorrow would not get too excited just yet....the XBI put in an all time high today but it was on weaker strength compared to it's last high (188.21 on 12/11) so it could be getting ready for a reversal soon. As far as available shares to short currently at IB at least it stands as follows: Symbol: MNKD Availability: 1'500'000 Exchanges: NASDAQ So it looks like there has been some sincere short covering in helping lift the s/p the last couple of days...if there is no follow through on this up tick to get us past last weeks high of 5.64 and a test of the 50d ma @ 5.70 I believe we will drift back down towards what has been support in the 5.00 area....depending on how much the market (and XBI) corrects (still possible yesterday and today are just a vicious rally from oversold conditions for the overall market) would give our short friends the opportunity to make another push at that support area. Hope everyone has a fantastic holiday season with their loved ones, and guess what...Santa will be bringing some joy to us diabetics this coming year!!  )) |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2014 15:46:10 GMT -5
Which puts and what is your reasoning for selling puts rather than purchasing shares? I've considered it, but kinda hate capping my upside.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Dec 18, 2014 16:10:02 GMT -5
Which puts and what is your reasoning for selling puts rather than purchasing shares? I've considered it, but kinda hate capping my upside. I should have specified my strategy as it is aggressively bullish....I sold the Jan '17 5 puts, had an order for 50 but was only able to get 45 at my price....I will be taking that premium and purchasing an equal amount of calls for what's known as a "synthetic long position" see link below for more detailed explanation: www.theoptionsguide.com/synthetic-long-stock.aspxI wasn't able to get the price I wanted for the calls yet so currently it is a naked short put position (bullish), figure if I don't get the calls at my price now I might get them later and if not....I am long quite a few shares anyway ....hope that helps DBC |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 18, 2014 16:24:22 GMT -5
Which calls? Is this balanced trade you were trying to do with equal calls and puts? What was your limit for each side? Just wanting to do some plots to wrap my reptilian brain around how this works compared to owning the shares. If you don't mind me asking.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Dec 18, 2014 17:30:36 GMT -5
Which calls? Is this balanced trade you were trying to do with equal calls and puts? What was your limit for each side? Just wanting to do some plots to wrap my reptilian brain around how this works compared to owning the shares. If you don't mind me asking. Yes equal amt of contracts on both sides, was trying to get the in the money calls (3 strike) which I can wait for should we have another drop. So at this point if nothing happens with the calls I will be either purchasing shares @ net 2.77 (5.00 less the 2.23 premium) or keeping some or all of the premium, if I can get the calls then it will be the equivalent of owning in this case 4500 sh. for roughly .52 {2.75 (cost of calls if it hits) - 2.23 (premium rec'd from puts sold)} X 45 contracts = $2340 as opposed to 4500 x $5.00/sh = $22500.... something to note is what your brokerage house will require for maintenance as far as reserves as you will need to have that "tied up" for as long as you have the position open. Again, hope this helps and btw, I absolutely do not recommend this for the average investor without a deep understanding of options and the risks inherently involved with them. Expired Sell to Open 5 MNKD Jan 20 2017 5.0 Put Limit 2.23 -- 12/18/14 16:16:48 12/18/14 Filled Sell to Open 10 MNKD Jan 20 2017 5.0 Put Limit 2.23 -- -- 12:16:24 12/18/14 Filled Sell to Open 5 MNKD Jan 20 2017 5.0 Put Limit 2.23 -- -- 12:16:24 12/18/14 Filled Sell to Open 8 MNKD Jan 20 2017 5.0 Put Limit 2.23 -- -- 12:15:03 12/18/14 Filled Sell to Open 7 MNKD Jan 20 2017 5.0 Put Limit 2.23 -- -- 12:15:03 12/18/14 Filled Sell to Open 15 MNKD Jan 20 2017 5.0 Put Limit 2.24 -- -- 12:13:00 12/18/14 |
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Post by gamblerjag on Dec 18, 2014 23:38:12 GMT -5
Hope so Joey.. I know this will be a major blockbuster.. however I will not be able to buy until the 29th.. I'm hoping (sorry longs) we retrace to low 5's in the next week.
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...as per what the Behavioral Economist alluded to in his excellent article when he advised the shorts that this may very well be close to the point they should consider covering before facing some substantial losses. Having said that, I believe there was a fair amount of the buys today which were shares being covered, jmho based on shares available to borrow ticking up....some may have been from forced long liquidation but I sense from the price action that was met with some covering.
))