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Post by ktim on Jun 19, 2019 14:40:54 GMT -5
Seems the simplest explanation for the delay is that MNKD wants to pay with shares but for some reason didn't conclude terms on time. Or they want to pay with shares and indeed feel there is something in interim that will increase share price, and DF is willing to play along for the added bit of interest income.
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 19, 2019 15:11:14 GMT -5
Seems the simplest explanation for the delay is that MNKD wants to pay with shares but for some reason didn't conclude terms on time. Or they want to pay with shares and indeed feel there is something in interim that will increase share price, and DF is willing to play along for the added bit of interest income. I wonder what August $1.50 calls are going for? Might be an interesting gamble right now.
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 19, 2019 16:31:31 GMT -5
It wouldn’t matter to Deerfield. Higher pps simply means less shares in lieu of cash. It would matter to MannKind since they have a limited number of authorized shares.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 19, 2019 16:38:39 GMT -5
So how are they going to get the pps up? Isn’t all this talk going to bring them down?
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 19, 2019 16:47:30 GMT -5
So how are they going to get the pps up? Isn’t all this talk going to bring them down? It you read between the lines mc is saying we are close to announcing the mysterious compound and uthr will pay the 15 or 30 million. It mc is right then the price shoots up. Deerfield takes higher prices shares. So in theory a straddle is probably a better bet than just going long on the 1.50 calls.
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 19, 2019 17:28:50 GMT -5
In all fairness to the management team, CEO Castagna stated at today’s JPM presentation that he had just returned from a sales force training meeting and he also stated recently that some trial results have been added to the sales presentation. He may be thinking that it will make a difference in the level of adoption. If so, I hope he’s right. Unfortunately I also recall his past remarks about how long it can take for a new sales strategy to bear fruit.
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Post by cjm18 on Jun 19, 2019 18:22:05 GMT -5
So how are they going to get the pps up? Isn’t all this talk going to bring them down? It you read between the lines mc is saying we are close to announcing the mysterious compound and uthr will pay the 15 or 30 million. It mc is right then the price shoots up. Deerfield takes higher prices shares. So in theory a straddle is probably a better bet than just going long on the 1.50 calls. Yes yes. They secret molecule is also the only reasonable way the runway extends to mid 2020.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 19, 2019 20:51:35 GMT -5
It wouldn’t matter to Deerfield. Higher pps simply means less shares in lieu of cash. It would matter to MannKind since they have a limited number of authorized shares. More interest was the theory as to why Deerfield would be ageeable to the delay.
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Post by boca1girl on Jun 20, 2019 6:57:31 GMT -5
It wouldn’t matter to Deerfield. Higher pps simply means less shares in lieu of cash. It would matter to MannKind since they have a limited number of authorized shares. More interest was the theory as to why Deerfield would be ageeable to the delay. Remember that Deerfield has milestone payments, based on sales, due well into the future. Deerfield will benefit by Afrezza’s long term success. Deerfield must see a benefit to themselves for the delay in payment and they have have the choice to be paid in cash or shares. Maybe there is something in the works that may or may not time out by August 31. That’s why the $$ needs to be held in escrow.
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Post by awesomo on Jun 20, 2019 7:21:05 GMT -5
What scenarios benefit Deerfield in delaying assuming they are dictating negotiations like usual?
1. They want additional interest payment(s) 2. They believe the share price will be lower so they can get more shares for the same amount
If they thought the share price will appreciate, they would take those shares now. We know it’s not because MannKind needs that money for something and Deerfield agreed to delay for the benefit of long term plans since it’s locked up in escrow.
Mike bringing up how he didn’t want to give them shares at this level as the reason for the delay seems disingenuous as it’s not really up to him.
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Post by rtmd on Jun 20, 2019 8:49:44 GMT -5
Yeah, I can see where Deerfield might not care about postponing -- only a couple of months, more interest -- big deal. The escrow requirement is what throws me off. It makes it sound as if they are worried Mannkind might not be able to make that July payment.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 20, 2019 9:06:53 GMT -5
I doubt DF is worried about MNKD ability to make payment. They seem to be a reasonable partner where debt is concerned (thinking back to whoever's analysis pointed to terms being "not onerous"). I am not concerned about crazy or unlikely scenarios. Escrow might be due "fiduciary responsibility" for DF shareholders. I assume there is some benefit to MNKD to the delay and that DF is cooperating but diligent.
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Post by awesomo on Jun 20, 2019 9:07:30 GMT -5
Yeah, I can see where Deerfield might not care about postponing -- only a couple of months, more interest. The escrow requirement is what throws me off. It makes it sound as if they are worried Mannkind might not be able to make that July payment. I mean, even if they saw this is a very low possibility, taking that risk off the table is smart if you can get away with it. But it does really show you who holds all the cards in negotiations.
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 20, 2019 10:38:57 GMT -5
What scenarios benefit Deerfield in delaying assuming they are dictating negotiations like usual? 1. They want additional interest payment(s) 2. They believe the share price will be lower so they can get more shares for the same amount If they thought the share price will appreciate, they would take those shares now. We know it’s not because MannKind needs that money for something and Deerfield agreed to delay for the benefit of long term plans since it’s locked up in escrow. Mike bringing up how he didn’t want to give them shares at this level as the reason for the delay seems disingenuous as it’s not really up to him. Deerfield does not hold the shares they receive. They either short prior to payment, or sell right afterwards. I believe they are agnostic to the price they receive shares. I believe Mike wants to wait so that he does not use up more shares then necessary so in lieu he will pay Deerfield a bit more in interest. Maybe he thinks there will be an event between now and September.
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 20, 2019 10:42:26 GMT -5
Yeah, I can see where Deerfield might not care about postponing -- only a couple of months, more interest -- big deal. The escrow requirement is what throws me off. It makes it sound as if they are worried Mannkind might not be able to make that July payment. It is as simple as MNKD is running low on cash, their liabilities of 100+ Million far outweigh tangible assets. Just think Teddy KGB in rounders as Deerfield.
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