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Post by bones1026 on Jun 21, 2019 23:10:37 GMT -5
There is so much value in the MNKD patent portfolio - value that is no where reflected in the financial statements of the company. It will be monetized in the years ahead and it’s billions of dollars. Short sellers are parasites. They almost killed the host. But thankfully failed. They might drive another round of dillituon. I don’t think so. But even with further dilution shareholders will end up making many multiples of what’s been invested in the years ahead. I used to think short selling was necessary for a functioning market. I still do to a degree. Missallocated Capital should be redirected as it adds efficiency to an economy. But what I’ve seen with MNKD is disgusting. Bad actors. No character. Eye opening experience. But thankfully almost over. Wow. My feelings, verbatim. I hope its over soon as well, with at least us long- time holders getting a good % of our money back. The lessons I’ve learned during these past 5 years, will help me in the long run |
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 22, 2019 1:22:13 GMT -5
They are having a real interesting conversation there under Spencer’s article in the comment section. ”The wild card scenario is the best for Mnkd and his shareholders. They add 50 mln debt to exiting and put all due in 2024. In that case, Mnkd get back the shares linked to Mann and Us Bank (25 mln)... If they do a new 150 loan repaying the existing (72 Mann +18 Us Bank +9 Deerfield), the shares could easily double, giving Mnkd the opportunity to sell 25 mln shares for 50 mln cash. At that point Mnkd could handle everything until cash flow break-even. Hoping this could realize, this could be the real turnaround for the Company” I think it may put the 1.60 warrants in play to possibly execute at best. The company still has a burn rate of close to 100 million per year and revenues of 25 to30. I would be the stock does not double. |
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Post by letitride on Jun 22, 2019 2:16:37 GMT -5
As a long time holder being before FDA approval I expect a hundred times my investment back. If I had only held on to my 10 cent shrs of SIRI till today. Let it Ride
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Post by parrerob on Jun 22, 2019 7:54:29 GMT -5
What is "this mess" you're referring to? (Handing you a microphone.) Reading your tone I can immagine I did a bad use of the term mess.... English is not my normal language.... sorry If I created confusion. I was simply calling mess the debt situation that probably is going to be restructured in the next few months.... without any personal comment on that.... mess because It s not clear already (to me ), It s so crucial for the future, we don't have too Much negotiation power, company says cash till mid 2020 (without any if... ) and even considering known possible milestones plus net rev from Afrezza and actual cash it seems not enough to me... so or We need cash (through restructuring debt As SO suggest?) Or I need more info. (I cannot consider, today, the warrants As "sure" source of cash...) Anyhow I hope they take in consideration too, that we always need to have authorized shares in the poket not only for dilution purpose... specially in this critical and crucial phase of a company with a product and a pipeline that if succesfull can start to really frighten many powerfull actors. So, for me, a such request for authorized shares should be only normal business. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 22, 2019 9:39:12 GMT -5
They are having a real interesting conversation there under Spencer’s article in the comment section. ”The wild card scenario is the best for Mnkd and his shareholders. They add 50 mln debt to exiting and put all due in 2024. In that case, Mnkd get back the shares linked to Mann and Us Bank (25 mln)... If they do a new 150 loan repaying the existing (72 Mann +18 Us Bank +9 Deerfield), the shares could easily double, giving Mnkd the opportunity to sell 25 mln shares for 50 mln cash. At that point Mnkd could handle everything until cash flow break-even. Hoping this could realize, this could be the real turnaround for the Company” Maybe time the refinance with a UTHR milestone payment? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 10:52:20 GMT -5
What is "this mess" you're referring to? (Handing you a microphone.) Reading your tone I can immagine I did a bad use of the term mess.... English is not my normal language.... sorry If I created confusion. I was simply calling mess the debt situation that probably is going to be restructured in the next few months.... without any personal comment on that.... mess because It s not clear already (to me ), It s so crucial for the future, we don't have too Much negotiation power, company says cash till mid 2020 (without any if... ) and even considering known possible milestones plus net rev from Afrezza and actual cash it seems not enough to me... so or We need cash (through restructuring debt As SO suggest?) Or I need more info. (I cannot consider, today, the warrants As "sure" source of cash...) Anyhow I hope they take in consideration too, that we always need to have authorized shares in the poket not only for dilution purpose... specially in this critical and crucial phase of a company with a product and a pipeline that if succesfull can start to really frighten many powerfull actors. So, for me, a such request for authorized shares should be only normal business. MNKD is in a much better shape than they were 6 years ago when they got into bed with Deerfield. They had no leverage. They had 2 CRL's in their back pocket and no certain future on approval. Deerfield knew this and they made MNKD's life very tough. Well 6 years later we have an FDA Drug, a 75 member salesforce, Global Expansion, Balance Sheet is very good, Revenues are rising steadily, Several Partners, a 9 Deep Pipeline of candidates and a top notch management Team. So MNKD is in a much better dealing making position for this recapitalization. Could it be better?? Yes....They could be in a position not to need additional capital but that day is coming. For now they should be able to borrow on favorable terms and nothing drastic. There will be companies out there that will loan to MNKD. Even Deerfield might be in there pitching for the Re-Fi. |
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Post by ktim on Jun 22, 2019 12:36:00 GMT -5
PC...I read Spencer’s articles as they come out. Basically because I’m bored and exasperated like everyone else. Not because they are especially good. Spencer is captain obvious. I think it was aged hippie that suggested that he could see Deerfield lending money to MNKD in a post months ago. I agreed with him at the time. I think it’s very likely. It’s what they do. “Shadow banking”. Spencer is riding a trend. Very soon (IMO) sales will outstrip his rudimentary linear projection and his 15 minutes will be over. If we start growing at something other than linear I would presume SO will be quick to recognize it and update his projections accordingly, and his take on MNKD as an investment might well change. That is what one would expect of someone doing financial analysis... conspiracy theories set aside. At this point it would be irresponsible for any analyst to be projecting exponential growth and claiming it is grounded in extrapolating from current data. |
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 22, 2019 13:21:28 GMT -5
Reading your tone I can immagine I did a bad use of the term mess.... English is not my normal language.... sorry If I created confusion. I was simply calling mess the debt situation that probably is going to be restructured in the next few months.... without any personal comment on that.... mess because It s not clear already (to me ), It s so crucial for the future, we don't have too Much negotiation power, company says cash till mid 2020 (without any if... ) and even considering known possible milestones plus net rev from Afrezza and actual cash it seems not enough to me... so or We need cash (through restructuring debt As SO suggest?) Or I need more info. (I cannot consider, today, the warrants As "sure" source of cash...) Anyhow I hope they take in consideration too, that we always need to have authorized shares in the poket not only for dilution purpose... specially in this critical and crucial phase of a company with a product and a pipeline that if succesfull can start to really frighten many powerfull actors. So, for me, a such request for authorized shares should be only normal business. MNKD is in a much better shape than they were 6 years ago when they got into bed with Deerfield. They had no leverage. They had 2 CRL's in their back pocket and no certain future on approval. Deerfield knew this and they made MNKD's life very tough. Well 6 years later we have an FDA Drug, a 75 member salesforce, Global Expansion, Balance Sheet is very good, Revenues are rising steadily, Several Partners, a 9 Deep Pipeline of candidates and a top notch management Team. So MNKD is in a much better dealing making position for this recapitalization. Could it be better?? Yes....They could be in a position not to need additional capital but that day is coming. For now they should be able to borrow on favorable terms and nothing drastic. There will be companies out there that will loan to MNKD. Even Deerfield might be in there pitching for the Re-Fi. Mnkd has the hopes of a billion dollar a year drug six years ago. Sorry afresh needs to sell 30x current rate to get to be a billion dollar drug and the market cap shows it. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 13:26:48 GMT -5
Not sure what your point is? A Billion dollars in Revenues will give you a MC of $19 Billion. MNKD's run rate is about $60M this year which could correlate into a MC of $600M. The stock is artificially low because of Deerfield and their Toxic Financing Deal. When that is out of the way.......MNKD will correct itself and will be trading normally. Shorts have been in control long enough. They will switch course and go long.
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Post by rtmd on Jun 22, 2019 14:35:25 GMT -5
Not sure what your point is? A Billion dollars in Revenues will give you a MC of $19 Billion. MNKD's run rate is about $60M this year which could correlate into a MC of $600M. The stock is artificially low because of Deerfield and their Toxic Financing Deal. When that is out of the way.......MNKD will correct itself and will be trading normally. Shorts have been in control long enough. They will switch course and go long. Can you explain a little further how Deerfield's financing is "toxic"? Based upon what I've studied, it seems pretty par for the course for financing a high risk company. |
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Post by traderdennis on Jun 22, 2019 17:38:16 GMT -5
Not sure what your point is? A Billion dollars in Revenues will give you a MC of $19 Billion. MNKD's run rate is about $60M this year which could correlate into a MC of $600M. The stock is artificially low because of Deerfield and their Toxic Financing Deal. When that is out of the way.......MNKD will correct itself and will be trading normally. Shorts have been in control long enough. They will switch course and go long. [b o no no. 19 x earnings not 19 x revenue. 4x projected revenue at the time of approval was in line to a bit rich. And current net revenue to company is in the 20 to 30 million per year. Not anywhere near 60. You are looking at retail gross which is not what is booked as revenue on the company level. |
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Post by ktim on Jun 22, 2019 19:07:46 GMT -5
Not sure what your point is? A Billion dollars in Revenues will give you a MC of $19 Billion. MNKD's run rate is about $60M this year which could correlate into a MC of $600M. The stock is artificially low because of Deerfield and their Toxic Financing Deal. When that is out of the way.......MNKD will correct itself and will be trading normally. Shorts have been in control long enough. They will switch course and go long. [b o no no. 19 x earnings not 19 x revenue. 4x projected revenue at the time of approval was in line to a bit rich. And current net revenue to company is in the 20 to 30 million per year. Not anywhere near 60. You are looking at retail gross which is not what is booked as revenue on the company level. Current run rate would seem to be at high end of your range. Projecting current linear growth I'm getting a forward 12 month revenue of $30M to $35M. Of course that is not enough to get investors excited. Growth must pick up or the share price will continue to languish with the overhang of dilution to fund the long crawl to profitability. |
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Post by pat on Jun 22, 2019 19:30:07 GMT -5
I’m still buying.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 23:46:29 GMT -5
Not sure what your point is? A Billion dollars in Revenues will give you a MC of $19 Billion. MNKD's run rate is about $60M this year which could correlate into a MC of $600M. The stock is artificially low because of Deerfield and their Toxic Financing Deal. When that is out of the way.......MNKD will correct itself and will be trading normally. Shorts have been in control long enough. They will switch course and go long. Can you explain a little further how Deerfield's financing is "toxic"? Based upon what I've studied, it seems pretty par for the course for financing a high risk company. Without question is was a high risk deal and it was Toxic. $160 Million @ 9.75% over 6 years, $90M of sales milestones, EOQ COH requirements AND FDA Drug License with IP & Plant Collateral??? That's classified as TOXIC FINANCING. A normal high risk deal does not include all of those aspects. Deerfield made almost $200 Million of Interest off of MNKD and that's not including the SHORT SIDE which I'm sure they took part in and made another $150 Million over the last 6 years. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 23:47:42 GMT -5
[b o no no. 19 x earnings not 19 x revenue. 4x projected revenue at the time of approval was in line to a bit rich. And current net revenue to company is in the 20 to 30 million per year. Not anywhere near 60. You are looking at retail gross which is not what is booked as revenue on the company level. Current run rate would seem to be at high end of your range. Projecting current linear growth I'm getting a forward 12 month revenue of $30M to $35M. Of course that is not enough to get investors excited. Growth must pick up or the share price will continue to languish with the overhang of dilution to fund the long crawl to profitability. I was using ZACK's revenue projections. |
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