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Post by ktim on Jun 24, 2019 15:43:50 GMT -5
Current run rate would seem to be at high end of your range. Projecting current linear growth I'm getting a forward 12 month revenue of $30M to $35M. Of course that is not enough to get investors excited. Growth must pick up or the share price will continue to languish with the overhang of dilution to fund the long crawl to profitability. I was using ZACK's revenue projections. Projection for retail sales at pharmacy, not revenue to MNKD, correct? If the former it is realistic, if the latter it is BS.
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Post by buyitonsale on Jun 24, 2019 15:56:46 GMT -5
I expect posters to be familiar with up to date info from latest earnings and conference calls...
Those who are would understand the revenue projections above...
Yes it is revenue not pharmacy sales... which are over a million per week for a while...
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Post by awesomo on Jun 24, 2019 16:00:40 GMT -5
I expect posters to be familiar with up to date info from latest earnings and conference calls... Those who are would understand the revenue projections above... Yes it is revenue not pharmacy sales... which are over a million per week for a while... Symphony isn't revenue to MannKind.
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Post by ktim on Jun 24, 2019 16:15:22 GMT -5
I expect posters to be familiar with up to date info from latest earnings and conference calls... Those who are would understand the revenue projections above... Yes it is revenue not pharmacy sales... which are over a million per week for a while... It seemed he was taking the pharmacy sales and applying a P/S multiple that would only be at all realistic if it were applied to actual net MNKD revenue. That's where the confusion came from. It never hurts for people to be explicit about numbers they throw out rather than expecting everyone else to make assumptions. For what it's worth my straight line projection based on current growth rate comes in at $57M for pharmacy (Symphony) sales. So I'll give $60M as being realistic, if a bit on the optimistic end.
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Post by buyitonsale on Jun 24, 2019 16:24:43 GMT -5
No confusion here.
Tell us what the net revenue was in Q1 reported by MNKD?
Q2 will be higher, Q3 and Q4 much higher.
We will see > 30M for the year IMO.
Net Afrezza sales revenue.
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 24, 2019 16:32:30 GMT -5
Can you explain a little further how Deerfield's financing is "toxic"? Based upon what I've studied, it seems pretty par for the course for financing a high risk company. Without question is was a high risk deal and it was Toxic. $160 Million @ 9.75% over 6 years, $90M of sales milestones, EOQ COH requirements AND FDA Drug License with IP & Plant Collateral??? That's classified as TOXIC FINANCING. A normal high risk deal does not include all of those aspects. Deerfield made almost $200 Million of Interest off of MNKD and that's not including the SHORT SIDE which I'm sure they took part in and made another $150 Million over the last 6 years. The sales milestones were sold as a separate deal to the loans. Mannkind sold forwards a percentage of future revenue. If the sales don't get reached then Deerfield loses on the deal, there is no penalty. If Mannkind ceases to sell Afrezza then there are penalties which is perfectly normal or there the company could just sell the rights to Afrezza and break the deal.
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Post by ktim on Jun 24, 2019 17:30:59 GMT -5
No confusion here. Tell us what the net revenue was in Q1 reported by MNKD? Q2 will be higher, Q3 and Q4 much higher. We will see > 30M for the year IMO. Net Afrezza sales revenue. With some it's more a word that rhymes with confusion Hope you're correct on > $30M. That would likely be enough of an improvement over current trajectory to have positive impact on investor sentiment... an unexpected upside compared to what the data would imply today. We'll need to see the NRx needle start to move up rather than fluctuate around a static mean.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Jun 24, 2019 20:19:08 GMT -5
MNKD is in a much better shape than they were 6 years ago when they got into bed with Deerfield. They had no leverage. They had 2 CRL's in their back pocket and no certain future on approval. Deerfield knew this and they made MNKD's life very tough. Well 6 years later we have an FDA Drug, a 75 member salesforce, Global Expansion, Balance Sheet is very good, Revenues are rising steadily, Several Partners, a 9 Deep Pipeline of candidates and a top notch management Team. So MNKD is in a much better dealing making position for this recapitalization. Could it be better?? Yes....They could be in a position not to need additional capital but that day is coming. For now they should be able to borrow on favorable terms and nothing drastic. There will be companies out there that will loan to MNKD. Even Deerfield might be in there pitching for the Re-Fi. Mnkd has the hopes of a billion dollar a year drug six years ago. Sorry afresh needs to sell 30x current rate to get to be a billion dollar drug and the market cap shows it. So what? There is slow uptake on many new diabetes drugs/devices. As I've stated here many times, Dexcom was the same. Check DXCM stock price and market cap. I've also stated here many times that you are here to spread as much FUD as possible. Have a great night. Thanks again for providing your Google page and name w photo of Afrezza advertising at Moscone, SF.
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Post by buyitonsale on Jun 24, 2019 20:39:52 GMT -5
No confusion here. Tell us what the net revenue was in Q1 reported by MNKD? Q2 will be higher, Q3 and Q4 much higher. We will see > 30M for the year IMO. Net Afrezza sales revenue. With some it's more a word that rhymes with confusion Hope you're correct on > $30M. That would likely be enough of an improvement over current trajectory to have positive impact on investor sentiment... an unexpected upside compared to what the data would imply today. We'll need to see the NRx needle start to move up rather than fluctuate around a static mean. Agreed, delusion is thinking that $1M average in weekly pharmacy sales would reasonably generate 30 to 35M in yearly pharmacy sales... 😊
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Post by ktim on Jun 24, 2019 21:31:08 GMT -5
With some it's more a word that rhymes with confusion Hope you're correct on > $30M. That would likely be enough of an improvement over current trajectory to have positive impact on investor sentiment... an unexpected upside compared to what the data would imply today. We'll need to see the NRx needle start to move up rather than fluctuate around a static mean. Agreed, delusion is thinking that $1M average in weekly pharmacy sales would reasonably generate 30 to 35M in yearly pharmacy sales... 😊 You pulling my leg, right? You really don't have a reading problem do you. Almost had me there. I can be SO gullible for a split second.
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Post by buyitonsale on Jun 24, 2019 22:39:14 GMT -5
Agreed, delusion is thinking that $1M average in weekly pharmacy sales would reasonably generate 30 to 35M in yearly pharmacy sales... 😊 You pulling my leg, right? You really don't have a reading problem do you. Almost had me there. I can be SO gullible for a split second. Maybe I have a reading problem... Then explain what this means: “Projection for retail sales at pharmacy, not revenue to MNKD, correct? If the former it is realistic, if the latter it is BS.” I read this as 30M at pharmacy is realistic and 30M revenue is BS... If you were talking about 60M in pharmacy sales then I misread your comment and stand corrected.
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Post by ktim on Jun 25, 2019 8:46:57 GMT -5
You pulling my leg, right? You really don't have a reading problem do you. Almost had me there. I can be SO gullible for a split second. Maybe I have a reading problem... Then explain what this means: “Projection for retail sales at pharmacy, not revenue to MNKD, correct? If the former it is realistic, if the latter it is BS.” I read this as 30M at pharmacy is realistic and 30M revenue is BS... If you were talking about 60M in pharmacy sales then I misread your comment and stand corrected. Yes to your last sentence, if you reread my posts you'll see I have said my straight line projection of symphony numbers would indicate $57 million. So roughly half that for Afrezza net, though perhaps we'll see some improvement in that ratio with growing volume (and apparent phasing out of voucher program). Maybe you missed one or two of the related posts. That can be easy to do.
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