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Post by sweedee79 on Aug 15, 2019 8:55:19 GMT -5
I listened to the webcast, it was a slip.. she said acquisition.. and then, oops I meant inlicensing.
In any case I don't want to be acquired unless it's good for shareholders, the company and Afrezza. I'm not sure it is.
What would happen to Afrezza under UTHR?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 15, 2019 9:14:35 GMT -5
Agreed, definitely a slip. Listen carefully. She said the word "or" twice as a connector phrase between "acquisition" and "in-licensing".
It is not debatable whether it was a slip. It is only debatable whether it was Freudian or not. I am not going to argue it is Freudian because I can't tell that it is.
I was only playing it out for entertainment value of speculating what a buyout would look like. I'm with everyone else who said it wouldn't be pretty and far lower than what is possible if we're patient.
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Post by dh4mizzou on Aug 15, 2019 9:41:19 GMT -5
Maybe a situation of "English is not my first language"?
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Post by awesomo on Aug 15, 2019 9:55:47 GMT -5
Maybe a situation of "English is not my first language"? She was born in Chicago, so no? |
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Post by mango on Aug 15, 2019 11:44:58 GMT -5
Martine talks very fluid and natural, unrehearsed/not scripted—that's obvious to me. She made a simple mistake/slip, and I wouldn't think twice about it or waste any energy and time dissecting it.
What is clear, however, is that Martine Rothblatt believes MannKind's technology is revolutionary and a marvel of engineering, and it will totally change the live's of those with PAH for the better. Make no mistake about it—TreT is absolutely revolutionary stuff, a quantum leap in PAH medicine, and will go down as one of the greatest medical innovations of my time (along side Afrezza).
TreT is a key to doors that were previously inaccessible by UT, and what lies beyond those doors are new possibilities that heretofore remained to be seen.
😎
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 15, 2019 12:22:15 GMT -5
I listened to the webcast, it was a slip.. she said acquisition.. and then, oops I meant inlicensing. In any case I don't want to be acquired unless it's good for shareholders, the company and Afrezza. I'm not sure it is. What would happen to Afrezza under UTHR? ok good to know. |
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Post by lakers on Aug 15, 2019 12:46:23 GMT -5
Martine talks very fluid and natural, unrehearsed/not scripted—that's obvious to me. She made a simple mistake/slip, and I wouldn't think twice about it or waste any energy and time dissecting it. What is clear, however, is that Martine Rothblatt believes MannKind's technology is revolutionary and a marvel of engineering, and it will totally change the live's of those with PAH for the better. Make no mistake about it—TreT is absolutely revolutionary stuff, a quantum leap in PAH medicine, and will go down as one of the greatest medical innovations of my time (along side Afrezza). TreT is a key to doors that were previously inaccessible by UT, and what lies beyond those doors are new possibilities that heretofore remained to be seen. 😎 Yes, TS is the key to UTHR’s PAH dominance, CF, CBD, and beyond. It’s just a matter of time before Martine takes the next inevitable step. It’d be hard for BoD to resist under SH pressure. Hope Afrezza is dealt off or licensed to some BP with strong belief and deep pocket to conduct a multi-yr Superiority Study and properly market it. BoD has fiduciary duty to SH. It can’t keep throwing good money after bad indefinitely, one short-term marketing experiment after another. Significant TreT royalty to help Mnkd break even is still years away. That doesn’t help Mnkd as a stand-alone co. which relies mainly on Afrezza to break even next year according to the recent recap. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Aug 15, 2019 13:13:52 GMT -5
Martine talks very fluid and natural, unrehearsed/not scripted—that's obvious to me. She made a simple mistake/slip, and I wouldn't think twice about it or waste any energy and time dissecting it. What is clear, however, is that Martine Rothblatt believes MannKind's technology is revolutionary and a marvel of engineering, and it will totally change the live's of those with PAH for the better. Make no mistake about it—TreT is absolutely revolutionary stuff, a quantum leap in PAH medicine, and will go down as one of the greatest medical innovations of my time (along side Afrezza). TreT is a key to doors that were previously inaccessible by UT, and what lies beyond those doors are new possibilities that heretofore remained to be seen. 😎 Yes, TS is the key to UTHR’s PAH dominance, CF, CBD, and beyond. It’s just a matter of time before Martine takes the next inevitable step. It’d be hard for BoD to resist under SH pressure. Hope Afrezza is dealt off or licensed to some BP with strong belief and deep pocket to conduct a multi-yr Superiority Study and properly market it. BoD has fiduciary duty to SH. It can’t keep throwing good money after bad indefinitely, one short-term marketing experiment after another. Significant TreT royalty to help Mnkd break even is still years away. That doesn’t help Mnkd as a stand-alone co. which relies mainly on Afrezza to break even next year according to the recent recap. MC said this last recap should get us to break even.. I'm sceptical about that as is the market so it seems..not a long enough runway.. Definitely need to address the retention problem or something else before we see sp rise. I was hoping for another partnership for something like epi.. I doubt any BP is going to pick up Afrezza and spend all of that time and money on it.. they don't need to.. they've got us pinned and basicly control the market at this point... |
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Post by ktim on Aug 15, 2019 13:20:54 GMT -5
Afrezza is not growing 50% per year. It is basically growing at a linear rate. You can't fit an exponential curve to something that is basically linear and have it be meaningful. As for the non-Afrezza revenue, the upfront money we currently know about isn't increasing and ceases at some point, and we don't know how quickly the royalties will kick-in and grow. Bottom line, if MNKD revenue could reasonably be modeled as 50% per year on ongoing basis, the share price would not be where it is today. >> Afrezza is not growing 50% per year. Quite right, that is why I said at least 50% per year!
I18 II18 III18 IV18 I19 II19 Total revenues 3.4 3.8 4.4 16.0 17.5 15.0 of which Afrezza net 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 5.0 6.1 collaboration 10.3 12.4 8.9 liane´s table 6.5 8.4 10.0 11.5 12.2 1 3.2 Anet over table .52 .45 .44 .50 .45 .46 Afrezza gross profit -0.6* -1.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 R&D expenses -2.6 -3.0 2.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 SG&A -15.4 -21.7 -19.4 -18.0 -27.7 -16.6 Interest expense -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 net loss -30.4 -22.7 -24.2 -9.7 -14.9 -12.4 Cash 27.2 53.1 11.0 71.7 59.8 38.2 Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11398/mnkd-hold-2019-financial-results?page=8#ixzz5wcjHPrAr And if you'd looked at "percentage" growth from 2016 to 2017 it was triple digits. 2018 was lower. 2019 lower still. Why... because other than price increase that was done, the scripts are basically growing linearly. Unless that changes 2020 will be lower percentage yet. So it is misleading, perhaps purposefully if you are trying to argue otherwise, that we are growing at a fixed percentage rate (i.e. exponential growth). Look at NRx. As long as that is flat, it is mathematically impossible, even with 100% retention which we don't have, for exponential growth. Yes, Mike does present everything in the very best light possible. Obviously when he talks about percentage growth for Afrezza he doesn't couple that with guidance for growth going forward because he well knows the "percentage" growth is slowing because stating it as such is an illusion meant to dazzle those that aren't paying attention. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 15, 2019 13:37:12 GMT -5
And that’s his job to present everything in the best light we wouldn’t want him to do anything else.
So this isn’t fact this is just my feelings. I like Mike’s personality. I don’t like some of the things that have happened. I don’t think Mannkind knows what to do about Afrezza...but I appreciate the fact that Matt did not give up, that Mike has not given up. But the bottom line is I don’t feel it’s working, I feel like they should lease it out and spend the money on TS. So if someone steps up with a plan and feels like they can make Afrezza a success then it should be considered.
And I know that Spencer pointed that out quite a long time ago actually before I was ready to concede that.
I can’t hold onto the stock if goes below a dollar. I don’t have a big tent in Hawaii .....but I’ll buy it back the minute it gets back to $1.03:-) Healthy stocks do not go down on good news, and I feel like Mike did a good job getting the loan, we got a runway and the stock still tanks ...it just tells me this is a sick stock at this moment.
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Post by ktim on Aug 15, 2019 13:38:42 GMT -5
Martine talks very fluid and natural, unrehearsed/not scripted—that's obvious to me. She made a simple mistake/slip, and I wouldn't think twice about it or waste any energy and time dissecting it. What is clear, however, is that Martine Rothblatt believes MannKind's technology is revolutionary and a marvel of engineering, and it will totally change the live's of those with PAH for the better. Make no mistake about it—TreT is absolutely revolutionary stuff, a quantum leap in PAH medicine, and will go down as one of the greatest medical innovations of my time (along side Afrezza). TreT is a key to doors that were previously inaccessible by UT, and what lies beyond those doors are new possibilities that heretofore remained to be seen. 😎 Yes, TS is the key to UTHR’s PAH dominance, CF, CBD, and beyond. It’s just a matter of time before Martine takes the next inevitable step. It’d be hard for BoD to resist under SH pressure. Hope Afrezza is dealt off or licensed to some BP with strong belief and deep pocket to conduct a multi-yr Superiority Study and properly market it. BoD has fiduciary duty to SH. It can’t keep throwing good money after bad indefinitely, one short-term marketing experiment after another. Significant TreT royalty to help Mnkd break even is still years away. That doesn’t help Mnkd as a stand-alone co. which relies mainly on Afrezza to break even next year according to the recent recap.MNKD isn't going to be break even on Afrezza next year and Mike has not claimed so. His comment about getting to break even undoubtedly includes the additional financing available (which has conditions), the milestones on TreT and the milestones for the other UTHR API, and possibly revenue from TreT in 2021. If the path to fulfilling that were obvious, Mike would have presented it rather than simply saying something like "I'm sure you can see how" as if he's a motivational speaker asking people to visualize their dreams. [Note: I'm not saying it isn't possible, I'm just pointing out that there are still risks. Obviously he'd be giving guidance in order to attract real investors if he had the ability to forecast solid sales.] As for Afrezza sales, until Mike actually gives guidance otherwise, I'd say looking at the very nice plot Earl Gray is kind enough to do for us and looking at the straight line sales are following is probably the common sense predictor of what sales will look like going forward. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 15, 2019 14:32:50 GMT -5
sports ... mail me your shares and I'll hold them for you. I'll give them back to you in October when you see the definite direction we are headed. Don't worry ... you can trust me.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by morfu on Aug 15, 2019 16:23:40 GMT -5
>> Afrezza is not growing 50% per year. Quite right, that is why I said at least 50% per year!
I18 II18 III18 IV18 I19 II19 Total revenues 3.4 3.8 4.4 16.0 17.5 15.0 of which Afrezza net 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 5.0 6.1 collaboration 10.3 12.4 8.9 liane´s table 6.5 8.4 10.0 11.5 12.2 1 3.2 Anet over table .52 .45 .44 .50 .45 .46 Afrezza gross profit -0.6* -1.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 R&D expenses -2.6 -3.0 2.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 SG&A -15.4 -21.7 -19.4 -18.0 -27.7 -16.6 Interest expense -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 net loss -30.4 -22.7 -24.2 -9.7 -14.9 -12.4 Cash 27.2 53.1 11.0 71.7 59.8 38.2 Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11398/mnkd-hold-2019-financial-results?page=8#ixzz5wcjHPrAr And if you'd looked at "percentage" growth from 2016 to 2017 it was triple digits. 2018 was lower. 2019 lower still. Why... because other than price increase that was done, the scripts are basically growing linearly. Unless that changes 2020 will be lower percentage yet. So it is misleading, perhaps purposefully if you are trying to argue otherwise, that we are growing at a fixed percentage rate (i.e. exponential growth). Look at NRx. As long as that is flat, it is mathematically impossible, even with 100% retention which we don't have, for exponential growth. Yes, Mike does present everything in the very best light possible. Obviously when he talks about percentage growth for Afrezza he doesn't couple that with guidance for growth going forward because he well knows the "percentage" growth is slowing because stating it as such is an illusion meant to dazzle those that aren't paying attention. It does not matter if you want to push a linear or exponential model, I could say that there might be a tipping point and it makes a big jump in the near future.. even if you want to argue my 50% number.. it´s all not too important. Your 16/17 numbers are of course also not very relevant, because Mannkind was in a very different state at that time due to the agreement with Sanofi.
While Afrezza is at a low level, it increases quite well! And Mannkind has other potential revenues beside the insulin sales to adult US Americans.
You´d have to be quite mad to sell at this moment in my opinion, unless you really believe they will run out of money and the option to borrow or so.
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 15, 2019 18:13:45 GMT -5
sports ... so you plan to sell if MNKD shares hits 99 cents ... and buy it back at $1.03? This is normal fluctuations and remember that the rubber band is on $1.10 ... you have my word on it. And I am the ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwUOkbYLnCQ&feature=youtu.beBut, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 15, 2019 18:31:03 GMT -5
sports ... so you plan to sell if MNKD shares hits 99 cents ... and buy it back at $1.03? This is normal fluctuations and remember that the rubber band is on $1.10 ... you have my word on it. And I am the ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwUOkbYLnCQ&feature=youtu.beBut, that's mytakeonit I’ve got a stop loss set at .95. I’m going into NVAX to make a little extra money, then I’ll be back at 1.03 :-) I need money for my wine and chocolate..🍷 |
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