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Post by harshal1981 on Aug 11, 2014 9:27:41 GMT -5
I am bit disappointed with the terms of the deal. Looks like there was no "bidding war" otherwise, upfront payment would have been at least 500mil. Also I think Al and team opted for a trade off between big/brand name partner with less upfront/less profit sharing % against mid size non-diabetic player with favorable terms.
I would like to know what is the exit strategy for every one. I have no plans to give up shares for less than $16. I am ready to wait it out till next summer when the second quarter sales numbers are released. If the uptake curve is good, hopefully it will cross $16 then. I do not see it happening before next summer looking at market's reaction to this deal in the form of PPS action today.
All though, I believe this is favorable deal for very long term investors. I am going to keep my shares in 401K for long. My thinking is that 10 year down the road this would be at least $100/sh. I am just 35 so I have many more years before I retire so I can probably wait it out for my 401k. But I think I will have to exit from my personal investment next year and target of $16 for that seems reasonable if I wait it out till next summer.
Comments? Please share your exit strategy.
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 11, 2014 9:45:42 GMT -5
Here's from my other post
For some reason investors thought the stock would double with the partnership announcement, so they are waiting for the analysts to tell them what to think.
I liked what I heard on the call. I have a $12 price target (at launch), that upside without the risks is enough for me to maintain my Long position.
I predict sales of 500M the first year and to grow to 1B by year two. And, sales to peak at 3B 1-2 years after global launch.
We are looking at the stock to at least double in the next five years (without taking into account the other Technosphere opportunities).
That's plenty upside. I don't like the rest of the market in general (overpriced) so I'm staying Long MNKD.
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I currently don't see $100/share, I'm hoping for a buyout from Sanofi in 5 years for $50. Who will be right will depend upon the pipeline Mannkind can create from Technosphere. They should have a pain targeting Dry Powder on the market or entering the market by then... I would have liked to see more upfront money from Afrezza to create that pipeline quickly, but it is what it is. If they can sign up additional partners to help cover development costs I'll become more bullish. I wouldn't be 100% Long and have everything in the 401k because there will be trading opportunities.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Aug 11, 2014 9:56:21 GMT -5
I have a number of strategies based upon different investments with MNKD. I have long shares, sold puts and long calls. As of this moment, I am looking for a 50% return on my calls and puts. And, I will be selling/buying some of them back shortly. I will probably convert some of my long calls to long stock and buy back the puts for pennies on the dollar.
The long shares I will hold for a very long time. I believe in the Technosphere technology. This is just the beginning......
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 11, 2014 10:03:35 GMT -5
It would appear Al focused more on getting Afrezza to patients worldwide than to getting the "best deal" for shareholders.
Regardless, Mannkind gets 100% reimbursed by Sanofi for all manufacturing costs, which is the equivalent of manufacturing this for free and collecting 35% of profits.
It's all good. I'm staying put, as there may be other developments/announcements.
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Post by zieg on Aug 11, 2014 11:07:14 GMT -5
We all knew that no matter what the deal was, the articles would be out saying how we got raw end. Remember how many people over on the other board said there would be no announcement this eve and no partner? Well, we have the #1 diabetes company in the world marketing and selling our product. We have zero costs to make the product. We receive 35% on sales. We own the technology for "T". I'm staying long. I would have been tempted if it hit 18 to sell a little, but as has been mentioned many times before, there are a lot of people "short" that don't want to see this price raise. Over the long haul we all knew we were getting onto a roller coaster. Well, lets enjoy the ride. Risk has greatly been reduced.
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Post by brentie on Aug 11, 2014 11:29:07 GMT -5
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Post by brentie on Aug 11, 2014 12:07:08 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 11, 2014 12:13:25 GMT -5
Exit strategy? Well, I've considered hemlock, the classic exit. There's jumping off the Golden Gate. Guns are so messy and loud. Hey, how about OD'ing on Afrezza? Oh, the levels of irony.
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Post by twice on Aug 11, 2014 12:18:47 GMT -5
Does anyone know what will happen to Mannkind's stockpile of insulin? Once manufacturing is in place, does the insulin stockpile represents a tangible sum of money, assuming the bulk of it still useable by FDA's standard?
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Post by cannon5974 on Aug 11, 2014 12:21:55 GMT -5
This deal was really disappointing. I sold 60% of my shares today. Even though I sold at about a 75% gain; I feel like a lost out on a lot of money. I thought I would be selling most of my shares north of $20. Mnkd spent $2b and 10 years getting Afrezza approved only to get $150m and keep 35% of the net income/loss. I almost wish they went alone. Depressing!!
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Post by savzak on Aug 11, 2014 12:53:29 GMT -5
Does anyone know what will happen to Mannkind's stockpile of insulin? Once manufacturing is in place, does the insulin stockpile represents a tangible sum of money, assuming the bulk of it still useable by FDA's standard? I think it's sounding more and more like management is not counting on using this insulin at all. During the call today, Matt said that it's getting old. He said they plan to seek FDA approval to use it but they clearly question whether they'll be able to do so. Accordingly, it is "tricky" (his word) to try to assign a value to it. |
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 11, 2014 13:21:24 GMT -5
Does anyone know what will happen to Mannkind's stockpile of insulin? Once manufacturing is in place, does the insulin stockpile represents a tangible sum of money, assuming the bulk of it still useable by FDA's standard? I think it's sounding more and more like management is not counting on using this insulin at all. During the call today, Matt said that it's getting old. He said they plan to seek FDA approval to use it but they clearly question whether they'll be able to do so. Accordingly, it is "tricky" (his word) to try to assign a value to it. It seems, there has been a trial underway for a while...presumably to prove the bioequivalency of the Amphastar insulin with the stored insulin. It would be great if someone asked a question to clarify...make that two: (1) what is the status of the study? (2) what insulin is being compared with Amphastar's? www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01982604?term=mannkind&rank=26 |
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 11, 2014 14:11:58 GMT -5
Exit strategy? Well, I've considered hemlock, the classic exit. There's jumping off the Golden Gate. Guns are so messy and loud. Hey, how about OD'ing on Afrezza? Oh, the levels of irony. I thought I was the only one thinking like this when I read the post. |
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Post by harshal1981 on Aug 11, 2014 14:24:26 GMT -5
Exit strategy? Well, I've considered hemlock, the classic exit. There's jumping off the Golden Gate. Guns are so messy and loud. Hey, how about OD'ing on Afrezza? Oh, the levels of irony. I can almost never infer your posts baba. Would you be kind enough to try in simple English. |
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Post by papihoyos on Aug 11, 2014 14:49:09 GMT -5
Does anyone know what will happen to Mannkind's stockpile of insulin? Once manufacturing is in place, does the insulin stockpile represents a tangible sum of money, assuming the bulk of it still useable by FDA's standard? SNY will purchase the stock pile once the insulin has been approved by the FDA to be used in the Dreamboat device. This insulin has previously been expensed by MNKD as R & D costs. |
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