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Post by ktim on Jan 16, 2020 14:53:34 GMT -5
This stock seems to mirror the countries political environment. Two competing narratives, each wildly opposite and at odds with one another. This forum is like the cable news networks. Very little ‘new news’ each day with most time spent rehashing arguments made previous. Stalwart defenders in each camp. Boredom, frustration, a bit of humor. Well, I’d say this is the year either side is proven right - and I’m not talking about the election. What in your mind are the 2 narratives? I seem to see people making reference to posters elsewhere that seem to be predicting the total financial demise of MNKD and/or that Afrezza is a bad product. I haven't been to such other sites in years, but do know that at least in the past there were people saying that. Are the two narratives you believe exist that MNKD is going bankrupt vs MNKD is going to shoot to the moon immediately? To me it seems there is an entire spectrum of views. Right here we have many people that are long term holders of MNKD shares and fully believe in the important benefits of Afrezza, but are frustrated by the slow progress (possibly blaming management, or not) and potentially still worried about financial necessities of reaching profitability. I know there are some that wish to create the notion of only two narratives... i.e. if someone says anything that isn't super positive then they must be "against" MNKD, but I think that is a fake notion. There are some that believe Afrezza will never succeed, some who believe Afrezza will succeed but that MNKD is bad investment none the less, some that believe Afrezza will succeed but MNKD should be recognized as a risky investment suitable for some but not all investment goals, and others that think buying as many shares as you possibly can is a great idea for getting rich quickly. As with many threads this one does have off topic content. The topic itself may seem a rehashed one, but the financial situation of the company is constantly changing. I would say there would be something wrong if a forum for discussing investment in a cash flow negative company didn't have this discussion at least once a quarter as it certainly ranks up there as one of the most important issues facing such companies. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 24, 2020 21:57:52 GMT -5
I’m thinking we have under $60M end of Sept. I’m guessing we are burning about $8M monthly. Not counting on $1.60 warrants being excercised in December. Anyone recall how much cash we need to keep in escrow ? Will we be borrowing or diluting with shares? . Looks like we had around $50mm cash end of September less - what I recall if correct - is 15mm we need in escrow. Thus $35mm. Then plus 12.5mm in November from UTHR 2nd milestone = 47.5mm. Less approx cash burn of 8mm per month leaves us with an estimated cash balance of $15.5mm end of this month of January. I don’t know what the $5mm raised from the sold shares in December was for so I’m not counting that. I guess we have some shares from December warrants that were not executed. Near term we can hope for $12.5 mm from UTHR, loan from midcap, or....the D word? |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 24, 2020 23:06:53 GMT -5
Duh?
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 25, 2020 11:53:18 GMT -5
So we had $50M end of December which included restricted cash. I think we need to keep $15M of it as restricted for midcap? If so, that would have left us with roughly $35M end of December. I was not able to read through the financials, though if what Casper stated in the SVB Leerink thread today that cash burn is down to $14M per quarter is true, I would estimate we have about $25 million to burn, if we are truly are only burning $5M per month now.
This has been one of the things Bill McCullough from VDEX has been pushing strongly for - to reduce expenses. If we are down to burning $5 or less per month, we’ve come a long way down from $11-12M a few years ago, to recent $8M, then $7M. This helps me breath easier for now if it is true that we are down to burning less than $5M per month. So I’m guessing we had cut back on the sales and marketing? Hopefully VDEX will eventually help more with sales, which would not be a cost but a benefit to MNKD
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 25, 2020 12:42:09 GMT -5
With the 2020 calculations, it would be good to include the two $25M milestones coming from UTHR and the second and possibly more shipments coming from Brazil. We might also get the first of the milestones from RLS not to mention new molecule agreements. While it may not be a lot, this combined with the lower burn rate does explain why MC said no dilution will be needed.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 25, 2020 13:47:59 GMT -5
With the 2020 calculations, it would be good to include the two $25M milestones coming from UTHR and the second and possibly more shipments coming from Brazil. We might also get the first of the milestones from RLS not to mention new molecule agreements. While it may not be a lot, this combined with the lower burn rate does explain why MC said no dilution will be needed. Two $25m milestones from Uthr? Don't you mean two $12.5 for 2020? |
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 25, 2020 14:05:14 GMT -5
With the 2020 calculations, it would be good to include the two $25M milestones coming from UTHR and the second and possibly more shipments coming from Brazil. We might also get the first of the milestones from RLS not to mention new molecule agreements. While it may not be a lot, this combined with the lower burn rate does explain why MC said no dilution will be needed. Two $25m milestones from Uthr? Don't you mean two $12.5 for 2020? You're right. Thanks. Off to get coffee! |
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Post by wgreystone on Feb 25, 2020 14:35:17 GMT -5
Two $25m milestones from Uthr? Don't you mean two $12.5 for 2020? You're right. Thanks. Off to get coffee! What about next year? |
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Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 17:21:10 GMT -5
With the 2020 calculations, it would be good to include the two $25M milestones coming from UTHR and the second and possibly more shipments coming from Brazil. We might also get the first of the milestones from RLS not to mention new molecule agreements. While it may not be a lot, this combined with the lower burn rate does explain why MC said no dilution will be needed. Including revenue from a company that hasn't appeared to do anything in years and doubling the amount coming from TreT would certainly help justify what MC said. Just no reason to expect those to happen. |
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Post by ktim on Feb 25, 2020 17:24:17 GMT -5
You're right. Thanks. Off to get coffee! What about next year? No further milestones on TreT. Simply revenue kicking in 2022. Could be milestones on 2nd API starting anytime now. Though there really is no concrete info to guess if or when. As far as we know it may be an open ended exclusivity where UTHR could sit on the decision indefinitely as other "partners" of MNKD have done. |
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Post by pat on Feb 26, 2020 8:33:12 GMT -5
No further milestones on TreT. Simply revenue kicking in 2022. Could be milestones on 2nd API starting anytime now. Though there really is no concrete info to guess if or when. As far as we know it may be an open ended exclusivity where UTHR could sit on the decision indefinitely as other "partners" of MNKD have done. So it truly is hopeless then? |
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 26, 2020 8:43:10 GMT -5
I don't care who ya are, that's funny  |
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Post by ktim on Feb 26, 2020 18:10:43 GMT -5
No further milestones on TreT. Simply revenue kicking in 2022. Could be milestones on 2nd API starting anytime now. Though there really is no concrete info to guess if or when. As far as we know it may be an open ended exclusivity where UTHR could sit on the decision indefinitely as other "partners" of MNKD have done. So it truly is hopeless then? What? 2nd API with UTHR? I'd reference the bolded sentence above. You might have missed it. It says we don't have any concrete info to guess if or when. So at least what I'm saying is there would be no reason to think it is hopeless... or assured. You seem to read things through a negative lens. |
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Post by pat on Feb 26, 2020 21:31:11 GMT -5
So it truly is hopeless then? What? 2nd API with UTHR? I'd reference the bolded sentence above. You might have missed it. It says we don't have any concrete info to guess if or when. So at least what I'm saying is there would be no reason to think it is hopeless... or assured. You seem to read things through a negative lens. Sky falling... |
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 29, 2020 11:26:47 GMT -5
Anyone think they have a good sense of where the general stock market is heading? Anyone hear anything from any reputable stock market pundits on where it is likely to go? I guess a lot obviously surrounds around this new strain of virus. Anyone recall how the markets in the past were affected by prominent viruses in the past? Short lived declines? Enough to throw good economies into recessions? Is this virus just in time for a correction that was bound to happen soon from other conditions such as slowing US and global growth?
I’m now wondering whether MNKD should have had an equity raise several weeks ago. I was kind of hoping a few weeks ago they were going to (not knowing of course if they have a pending deal or more to obtain enough cash on hand for the next couple of years).
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