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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 29, 2020 12:36:56 GMT -5
Anyone think they have a good sense of where the general stock market is heading? Anyone hear anything from any reputable stock market pundits on where it is likely to go? I guess a lot obviously surrounds around this new strain of virus. Anyone recall how the markets in the past were affected by prominent viruses in the past? Short lived declines? Enough to throw good economies into recessions? Is this virus just in time for a correction that was bound to happen soon from other conditions such as slowing US and global growth? I’m now wondering whether MNKD should have had an equity raise several weeks ago. I was kind of hoping a few weeks ago they were going to (not knowing of course if they have a pending deal or more to obtain enough cash on hand for the next couple of years). THE STOCK is to low. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 29, 2020 12:57:18 GMT -5
It certainly is now
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Post by matt on Feb 29, 2020 13:51:05 GMT -5
Anyone think they have a good sense of where the general stock market is heading? Anyone hear anything from any reputable stock market pundits on where it is likely to go? I guess a lot obviously surrounds around this new strain of virus. Anyone recall how the markets in the past were affected by prominent viruses in the past? Short lived declines? Enough to throw good economies into recessions? Is this virus just in time for a correction that was bound to happen soon from other conditions such as slowing US and global growth? I’m now wondering whether MNKD should have had an equity raise several weeks ago. I was kind of hoping a few weeks ago they were going to (not knowing of course if they have a pending deal or more to obtain enough cash on hand for the next couple of years). Epidemiological models suggest that a pathogen with this level of virulence and no natural immunity in the general population will take around two years to fully manifest itself. That is why some of the estimates you see of the number of people that will be exposed or the number that will die are so broad; nobody is working with good numbers. Given that COVID-19 spreads in much the same way as normal influenza and rhinovirii, and that we are entering March, means that the US and Northern Europe may have escaped the worst impacts for now but the virus could start spreading rapidly again in the fall months. That is a long time for the markets to be worried, but the market hates uncertainty. It is simply going to take a while before the CDC and similar agencies really know what is happening. What is unique about this time is that global supply chains have never been this exposed. The earlier SARS and MERS epidemics were largely localized, and Ebola affected a region in Africa that was not a significant part of any supply chain. This virus will affect the entire world, and supply chain disruptions in one place will cause companies manufacturing elsewhere to shut down due to lack of raw materials or component parts; the auto industry is a prime example of this dynamic. It will all get sorted out eventually, but "eventually" will likely be 24-36 months. As for equity raises, I have said before that any biotech that does not have a cash balance at least equal to the following year's worth of COGS and expenses is playing with fire. It is not so much the dilution pain, raising money at a discount to $1.27 is painful versus $1.70, but the bigger risk is that the financial markets simply become so unfriendly that no deals are available on commercially acceptable terms. That is what happened in 2008; some biotechs had an extremely difficult time raising money and several did not survive the downturn. Most small companies depend on robust trading volume to place new shares, and if people are staying away from the market until things settle down the volume will not be there. This week there was a lot of selling (obviously) but the daily volumes a week or two from will give a good indication of how long this funk may last. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 29, 2020 13:56:57 GMT -5
Any opinions on how quickly the COVID19 vaccines being prepared will have been sufficiently developed, tested, and manufactured to meaningfully quell uncertainty?
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Post by brotherm1 on Feb 29, 2020 14:09:33 GMT -5
The WHO is estimating 18 mos before a vaccine. I did hear from two different sources yesterday - though I’ve yet to read about it anywhere - that China has medication now available to some degree to help those who have contracted the virus.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 29, 2020 16:22:30 GMT -5
MTOI might have been on to something with NVAX.
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 29, 2020 16:42:50 GMT -5
You all do know that NVAX first estimated it would take them 3 months to create the vaccine. Then a few days later they said that it would be closer to 2 months. So I'm looking for the vaccine to come out the second half of April.
I have my shares ... do you? With the price run up ... the longer you wait the more it will cost you.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by ktim on Feb 29, 2020 19:27:03 GMT -5
Anyone think they have a good sense of where the general stock market is heading? Anyone hear anything from any reputable stock market pundits on where it is likely to go? I guess a lot obviously surrounds around this new strain of virus. Anyone recall how the markets in the past were affected by prominent viruses in the past? Short lived declines? Enough to throw good economies into recessions? Is this virus just in time for a correction that was bound to happen soon from other conditions such as slowing US and global growth? I’m now wondering whether MNKD should have had an equity raise several weeks ago. I was kind of hoping a few weeks ago they were going to (not knowing of course if they have a pending deal or more to obtain enough cash on hand for the next couple of years). The virus and prospects for upcoming election will be the market drivers. Anyone predicting the outcomes is guessing. We had been overbought and priced for perfection. |
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Post by ktim on Feb 29, 2020 19:35:46 GMT -5
Anyone think they have a good sense of where the general stock market is heading? Anyone hear anything from any reputable stock market pundits on where it is likely to go? I guess a lot obviously surrounds around this new strain of virus. Anyone recall how the markets in the past were affected by prominent viruses in the past? Short lived declines? Enough to throw good economies into recessions? Is this virus just in time for a correction that was bound to happen soon from other conditions such as slowing US and global growth? I’m now wondering whether MNKD should have had an equity raise several weeks ago. I was kind of hoping a few weeks ago they were going to (not knowing of course if they have a pending deal or more to obtain enough cash on hand for the next couple of years). Epidemiological models suggest that a pathogen with this level of virulence and no natural immunity in the general population will take around two years to fully manifest itself. That is why some of the estimates you see of the number of people that will be exposed or the number that will die are so broad; nobody is working with good numbers. Given that COVID-19 spreads in much the same way as normal influenza and rhinovirii, and that we are entering March, means that the US and Northern Europe may have escaped the worst impacts for now but the virus could start spreading rapidly again in the fall months. That is a long time for the markets to be worried, but the market hates uncertainty. It is simply going to take a while before the CDC and similar agencies really know what is happening. What is unique about this time is that global supply chains have never been this exposed. The earlier SARS and MERS epidemics were largely localized, and Ebola affected a region in Africa that was not a significant part of any supply chain. This virus will affect the entire world, and supply chain disruptions in one place will cause companies manufacturing elsewhere to shut down due to lack of raw materials or component parts; the auto industry is a prime example of this dynamic. It will all get sorted out eventually, but "eventually" will likely be 24-36 months. As for equity raises, I have said before that any biotech that does not have a cash balance at least equal to the following year's worth of COGS and expenses is playing with fire. It is not so much the dilution pain, raising money at a discount to $1.27 is painful versus $1.70, but the bigger risk is that the financial markets simply become so unfriendly that no deals are available on commercially acceptable terms. That is what happened in 2008; some biotechs had an extremely difficult time raising money and several did not survive the downturn. Most small companies depend on robust trading volume to place new shares, and if people are staying away from the market until things settle down the volume will not be there. This week there was a lot of selling (obviously) but the daily volumes a week or two from will give a good indication of how long this funk may last. Agree, on the face it this looks like this could be similar to 1918-1919 flu, which was relatively mild effect at first, subsided in Northern hemisphere summer and came back with horrible vengeance in fall. Fingers crossed that isn't the natural course or that modern medicine will find vaccine or effective treatment before fall. |
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Post by mango on Feb 29, 2020 19:41:19 GMT -5
Epidemiological models suggest that a pathogen with this level of virulence and no natural immunity in the general population will take around two years to fully manifest itself. That is why some of the estimates you see of the number of people that will be exposed or the number that will die are so broad; nobody is working with good numbers. Given that COVID-19 spreads in much the same way as normal influenza and rhinovirii, and that we are entering March, means that the US and Northern Europe may have escaped the worst impacts for now but the virus could start spreading rapidly again in the fall months. That is a long time for the markets to be worried, but the market hates uncertainty. It is simply going to take a while before the CDC and similar agencies really know what is happening. What is unique about this time is that global supply chains have never been this exposed. The earlier SARS and MERS epidemics were largely localized, and Ebola affected a region in Africa that was not a significant part of any supply chain. This virus will affect the entire world, and supply chain disruptions in one place will cause companies manufacturing elsewhere to shut down due to lack of raw materials or component parts; the auto industry is a prime example of this dynamic. It will all get sorted out eventually, but "eventually" will likely be 24-36 months. As for equity raises, I have said before that any biotech that does not have a cash balance at least equal to the following year's worth of COGS and expenses is playing with fire. It is not so much the dilution pain, raising money at a discount to $1.27 is painful versus $1.70, but the bigger risk is that the financial markets simply become so unfriendly that no deals are available on commercially acceptable terms. That is what happened in 2008; some biotechs had an extremely difficult time raising money and several did not survive the downturn. Most small companies depend on robust trading volume to place new shares, and if people are staying away from the market until things settle down the volume will not be there. This week there was a lot of selling (obviously) but the daily volumes a week or two from will give a good indication of how long this funk may last. Agree, on the face it this looks like this could be similar to 1918-1919 flu, which was relatively mild effect at first, subsided in Northern hemisphere summer and came back with horrible vengeance in fall. Fingers crossed that isn't the natural course or that modern medicine will find vaccine or effective treatment before fall. Inovio made a vaccine in 3 hours. Human clinical trials start early summer. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Feb 29, 2020 21:30:02 GMT -5
INO shares went down a little on Friday ... so it is a lot cheaper than NVAX. There are a lot of pharmaceuticals making/ working on a vaccine for the coronavirus. I feel the more the merrier. We will have to inoculate the whole world so I guess we will see those military vaccine guns on every corner. Hope you do well at the casino !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by mango on Feb 29, 2020 22:06:30 GMT -5
INO shares went down a little on Friday ... so it is a lot cheaper than NVAX. There are a lot of pharmaceuticals making/ working on a vaccine for the coronavirus. I feel the more the merrier. We will have to inoculate the whole world so I guess we will see those military vaccine guns on every corner. Hope you do well at the casino !!! But, that's mytakeonit I hope you're able to buy a rain fly for your tent with all that NVAX $doejadoe$ I skipped on the casino tonight BTW ... all those $INO shares cost me a few cents...It's a long play too so I'm OK with it! |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 29, 2020 23:46:54 GMT -5
NVAX is a very dangerous stock in my opinion, not to mention they have a CEO that’s nuts:-) But hey roll the dice you’re doing good!
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Post by rfogel on Mar 1, 2020 0:28:11 GMT -5
NVAX is a very dangerous stock in my opinion, not to mention they have a CEO that’s nuts:-) But hey roll the dice you’re doing good! Indeed, perhaps a lesson can be learned from six years ago: seekingalpha.com/article/2220863-novavax-a-unique-opportunity "Pandemic Flu and emerging MERS threats put Novavax at the vanguard of protecting global health from emerging pandemics." It was at $100 a share when that was written. It went on to $266 about a year later. And so far they have produced absolutely nothing but clinical trials, secondary offerings, and a 1 for 20 reverse split. |
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Post by barnstormer on Mar 1, 2020 1:14:55 GMT -5
Novavax has a platform that uses recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology that can respond to known and emerging infectious diseases. In some ways they are like the TS of vaccines. Dangerous? I think the only thing dangerous about NVAX is their CEO (sound familiar). The reason they are quick to get in the COVID 19 fray is because they have a lot of experience with similar pathogens. Right now they are doing more to save my biotech portfolio that MNKD. They have been given a $27.50 PT by several analysts based on the expected FDA approval of NanoFlu which is more important than COVID 19. MNKD was in the $50 range when I first bought in and look at it now. I lived through Stan Erk's (NVAX CEO) 1:20 RS, averaged down and am gleefully up big now. Long term I think NVAX's RSV drug will get a second chance at FDA approval. After all the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation invested $96,000,000. Like MNKD they are survivors and in a business that doesn't rely on endos to prescribe their drugs. I am feeling pretty good with my NVAX investment. MN KD, not so much.
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