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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 16:19:36 GMT -5
Almost forgot...
+
2020 US sales > 40M
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 8, 2019 17:16:34 GMT -5
That probably will be my MNKD shares valuation about that time. Give or take a M.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by mannmade on Oct 8, 2019 17:32:36 GMT -5
Almost forgot... + 2020 US sales > 40M So with the $52m currently estimated by SO in his recent article And your $102m that is $154m Plus another $35m for Afrezza income in 2020 equals $189M through the end of 2020. Not counting Brazil and a second molecule, etc... Now if script could only continue to grow like last week... GLTAL's! |
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Post by uvula on Oct 8, 2019 18:42:09 GMT -5
Almost forgot... + 2020 US sales > 40M How much profit from 40m in sales? |
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 18:43:33 GMT -5
Almost forgot... + 2020 US sales > 40M So with the $52m currently estimated by SO in his recent article And your $102m that is $154m Plus another $35m for Afrezza income in 2020 equals $189M through the end of 2020. Not counting Brazil and a second molecule, etc... Now if script could only continue to grow like last week... GLTAL's! i did mention 2020 revenue already  but even 150M is not bad as a baseline projection... |
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 18:57:37 GMT -5
Almost forgot... + 2020 US sales > 40M How much profit from 40m in sales? Q2 we reported 6M of revenue. I am projecting 40M or more in 2020. this is about revenue not cogs or profit. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Oct 8, 2019 19:09:25 GMT -5
Almost forgot... + 2020 US sales > 40M How much profit from 40m in sales? The question about profit on $40M US sales is a non sequitur without useful context.
The thread began with two questions.
Q1: Anyone recall how much cash we need to keep in escrow? The answer volunteered was $15M.
Q2: Will we be borrowing or diluting with shares? The summary answer was basically neither.
Based on assumptions of cash burn, cash on hand, loan escrow requirements, domestic and international sales of Afrezza, and milestone payments from the UTHR deal, the consensus opinion appears to be neither borrowing nor dilution may be required before income increases to the point of the company reaching cash flow break even.
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Post by ktim on Oct 8, 2019 20:36:28 GMT -5
How much profit from 40m in sales? The question about profit on $40M US sales is a non sequitur without useful context.
The thread began with two questions.
Q1: Anyone recall how much cash we need to keep in escrow? The answer volunteered was $15M.
Q2: Will we be borrowing or diluting with shares? The summary answer was basically neither.
Based on assumptions of cash burn, cash on hand, loan escrow requirements, domestic and international sales of Afrezza, and milestone payments from the UTHR deal, the consensus opinion appears to be neither borrowing nor dilution may be required before income increases to the point of the company reaching cash flow break even.
The crowd here is mostly predisposed to have optimistic assumptions. The share price isn't consistent with the consensus you state being widely held belief beyond this forum. If last weeks script number is really indicative of a change in trajectory, I think the optimistic assumptions could start looking realistic, but we need to see if that is an outlier or the start of a new trend. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Oct 8, 2019 20:48:21 GMT -5
Optimism is a hazard on message boards where mediators respect investor views and occasionally delete obvious off-topic posts and other SPAM.
Where did I state the consensus view on this THREAD was a widely held belief beyond this forum [MNKD Proboards]?
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Post by slugworth008 on Oct 8, 2019 21:02:19 GMT -5
Castagna also spent some time two conferences ago talking about the low cost of Phase 1 trials. Was he indicating some movement within the pipeline or blowing smoke? Inquiring minds want to know.., Perhaps he's blowing RLS smoke  |
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 21:14:00 GMT -5
FUD will stop when we make first $1 in a single quarter..
About 6 months after TreT is approved.
Why wait, cover now 😊
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 21:30:27 GMT -5
Next 15 months MNKD will not have any revenue from international sales or any partnerships related to its pipeline...
Keep dreaming 😊
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 21:38:10 GMT -5
How many members of this board are a CEO of a public company?
I know of only one 😊
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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 8, 2019 21:48:39 GMT -5
$52m now less $15 escrow = $37m cash available. Off the top of the head math but:
Lets say we somehow only burn $7m per month cash burn for now and we’ll thus have 5 months of cash left to get us through February. If we get $12.5 this Q4 from UTHR we’ll have enough maybe through April. If we meet loan covenants we borrow $10m more to get us almost through mid June 2020. With another $12.5 from United for Trepostinil we’re up to maybe end of August 2020.
If Afrezza net revenue would grow the whole way up to an additional $1m per month on the average between now and then, we’d essentially have an additional $10m deducted from our cash burn to get us through mid-September 2020. If we get another $12.5m from United for Trep we’d be good through maybe October 2020.
Lots of if’s here though. I’m not seeing how we have enough to get to cash flow even, especially if we want to grow sales which requires funding for marketing. What am I missing besides more ifs?
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Post by buyitonsale on Oct 8, 2019 22:04:31 GMT -5
Do not forget to add US revenue to your calculations, seems like you stopped at Q3...
Revenue will still be coming:
Q4 - 8M
Q1 - 9m
Q2- 10m
And so on...
😊
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